Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 326.48 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 724 million yuan, down 37.44% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 74.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.54% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.53% year-on-year to 588 million yuan [4] - The company is actively promoting project construction to enhance product value and ensure long-term growth [7][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue from Zhejiang Petrochemical was 261.75 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159% [5] - The refining and chemical segments reported gross profits of 20.71 billion yuan and 16.56 billion yuan respectively, with gross margins of 17.57% and 13.60% [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.41 billion, 5.45 billion, and 8.62 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.70X, 15.48X, and 9.78X [11] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on expanding its new materials segment, with significant projects such as the production of α-olefins and rare earth butadiene rubber [8] - A strategic partnership with Saudi Aramco has been established, with discussions ongoing regarding the acquisition of a 50% stake in the Jubail refinery [9] - The company has implemented a share buyback plan, repurchasing 553 million shares, which represents 5.46% of total shares, to boost investor confidence [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite recent challenges [1][10] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 to 0.31 CNY, down from the previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2] - The report highlights the company's ongoing development projects, including new production facilities that are expected to drive future growth [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 325,112 million CNY, with a projected increase to 326,475 million CNY in 2024, and further growth to 355,946 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 1,158 million CNY in 2023 to 724 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 3,131 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.9% over the same period [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in operating profit from 1,560 million CNY in 2023 to 9,141 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 356.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY, based on historical valuation methods and adjusted earnings forecasts [2][5]. Core Insights - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite a challenging environment [1][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 0.31 CNY, down from a previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2]. - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating oil prices and the company's strategic projects aimed at enhancing profitability and market position [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 326,475 million CNY in 2024, with a slight growth of 0.4% year-on-year, and is expected to reach 355,946 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 9.0% increase [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 724 million CNY in 2024, a decrease of 37.4%, but is expected to rebound significantly to 3,131 million CNY in 2025, marking a growth of 332.1% [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024 to 14.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to increase from 1.6% in 2024 to 8.9% by 2027, reflecting improved efficiency and profitability [4]. Industry Outlook - The refining industry is anticipated to see a recovery due to regulatory changes and improved operational efficiencies, particularly in the domestic market [10]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic projects in new materials and refining, which are expected to drive future growth and enhance its competitive edge [10].

Group 1 - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) reported its Q1 2025 results on April 30, 2025, with 18 institutional investors disclosing holdings of A-shares totaling 6.793 billion shares, representing 67.08% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Co., Aramco Overseas Company B.V., and others, with their combined holding ratio at 67.07%, a decrease of 0.75 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, two funds increased their holdings compared to the previous period, while six funds reduced their holdings, indicating a slight decline in the proportion of reduced holdings [2] - One new public fund was disclosed during this period, namely Guofu CSI 300 Index Enhanced A, while 292 public funds were not disclosed again, including several major ETFs [2] - Regarding foreign investment, one foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, increased its holdings slightly compared to the previous period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical's performance continues to decline, with a slight increase in total revenue but a significant drop in net profit during the reporting period [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of approximately 326.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.44% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.38% [1] - In Q4, the total revenue was approximately 81.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.56% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.18% [1] - The net profit for Q4 was approximately -15.2 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of about 114% [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was approximately 75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.76% [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was approximately 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, marking a return to profitability [1] Dividend and Shareholder Return Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, with a total distribution and buyback amount exceeding 1.3 billion yuan [1] - For the years 2026-2028, the company allows for cash or stock dividends, with a principle of distributing no less than 30% of the average distributable profit over the last three years [1] Industry Insights - The price differentials for refined oil, ethylene, and polyester filament remained stable year-on-year, while the propylene and PX price differentials saw significant declines of about 18% and 21%, respectively [2] - The supply-side adjustments are expected to improve industry conditions, with a decrease in the operating rate of independent refineries [2] - As of April 24, the operating rate of independent refineries in Shandong was approximately 48%, indicating a gradual improvement in supply-side conditions [2] Future Outlook - The company is in a strong capital expenditure phase, with ongoing construction projects totaling approximately 50.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 6.2 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The company has several projects in hand, including 1.4 million tons/year ethylene and downstream chemical facilities, which are expected to enhance its market position once operational [2] - The company is positioned to become a leading large-scale chemical platform in China, with strong cyclical resilience anticipated as industry conditions improve [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance has shown significant marginal improvement, and shareholder returns have enhanced its long-term investment value [1] - The report highlights that the refining and chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak cycle, which may put short-term pressure on the company's performance in 2024 [4] - The first quarter of 2025 has seen a substantial improvement in the company's performance, indicating potential for profit elasticity [4] - The collaboration with Saudi Aramco is expected to strengthen the company's global presence and enhance its risk resilience [5] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been established, emphasizing the company's commitment to long-term value [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 326.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 724 million yuan, a decrease of 37.44% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 reported operating revenue of 74.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.54%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 588 million yuan, an increase of 6.53% [2] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a significant recovery in net profit, with expected figures of 2.356 billion yuan, 2.783 billion yuan, and 3.935 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.23 yuan in 2025 to 0.39 yuan in 2027 [7] Industry Outlook - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with a focus on consolidation and efficiency [4] - The average Brent crude oil price for 2024 is projected to be 79.86 USD per barrel, indicating a slight decrease from the previous year [4] - The report anticipates that the industry will face challenges due to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions affecting oil prices [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance has shown significant marginal improvement, and shareholder returns have enhanced its long-term investment value [1] - The report highlights that the refining and chemical industry is currently in a weak cycle, which may put short-term pressure on the company's performance [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a substantial improvement in the company's performance, indicating potential for profit elasticity [4][5] - The company has established a three-year shareholder return plan, emphasizing its long-term investment value [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 326.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 724 million yuan, a decrease of 37.44% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 reported operating revenue of 74.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.54%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.53% year-on-year [2] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a significant recovery in net profit, with expected figures of 2.356 billion yuan, 2.783 billion yuan, and 3.935 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 225.2%, 18.1%, and 41.4% [7] Industry Insights - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with a focus on "strong alliances" to create new development opportunities [4] - The average Brent crude oil price for 2024 is projected to be 79.86 USD/barrel, indicating a slight decrease from the previous year [4] - The report notes that the company is collaborating with Saudi Aramco, which is expected to enhance its global market presence and operational resilience [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY24 performance with revenue of 326.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit of 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.4% [1]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was 326.475 billion yuan, with a net profit of 724 million yuan, reflecting a 37.4% decline year-on-year [1]. - 4Q24 revenue was 81.279 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 152 million yuan [1]. - 1Q25 revenue was 74.975 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 588 million yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year [1]. - Zhejiang Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan in FY24, up 159% year-on-year, and 1.27 billion yuan in 1Q25, a 1% increase year-on-year [1]. - CNOOC Petrochemical reported a loss of 1.249 billion yuan in FY24, with PTA and bottle chips losses of approximately 260 million yuan [1]. Industry Trends - In 1Q25, costs significantly decreased, with coal prices dropping from 765 yuan/ton to 652 yuan/ton, benefiting the company's cost structure [2]. - The price differentials for downstream products like olefins remained strong, while PX and pure benzene price differentials continued to decline [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end materials and expanding its product offerings, including the production of α-olefins and rare earth rubber [2]. - The average Brent crude oil price decreased to 66.6 USD/barrel in 2Q25, which is expected to improve chemical product profitability in 3Q25 and beyond [2]. Investor Returns - The company has shown commitment to investor returns, with a total of approximately 1.693 billion yuan in share buybacks in 2024 and an ongoing buyback plan of 1-2 billion yuan in 2025 [3]. - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends of 957 million yuan, accounting for 34% of distributable profits [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to lower-than-expected recovery in refining profits, the company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-26 by 40.6% and 27.0% to 1.896 billion yuan and 4.922 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 43.7x for 2025 and 16.8x for 2026 [4]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 7.6% to 9.7 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 18.4% from the current stock price [4].

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and risk resistance by achieving significant performance growth in Q1 2025, despite a challenging international crude oil market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical reported total operating revenue of 74.975 billion RMB, a slight year-on-year decrease of 7.54% - The total profit reached 1.345 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.91% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 588 million RMB, up 6.53% compared to the same period last year - The non-recurring net profit grew by 30.28%, reaching 618 million RMB [1]. Market Conditions - Historical data indicates that crude oil price fluctuations are critical for refining companies' profitability, with margins improving significantly when oil prices are in the 40-80 USD/barrel range - Currently, oil prices have dropped to the 65 USD/barrel range, benefiting refining companies by improving cost structures and expanding product margins - An increase of 100 RMB per ton in refining profit could potentially add approximately 4 billion RMB to Rongsheng Petrochemical's profits, given its refining capacity of 40 million tons per year [2]. Industry Position - Rongsheng Petrochemical is viewed as a core player for "bottoming out and rebounding" in the market, supported by its full industry chain advantages and the release of high-end new material capacities - The company holds a significant position in the chemical materials market in China and Asia, excelling in polyester, new energy materials, engineering plastics, and high-value-added polyolefins - The integrated refining project led by the company has an annual processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil, producing 8.8 million tons of paraxylene (PX) and 4.2 million tons of ethylene [2][3]. Future Outlook - With the stabilization of crude oil prices and a gradual recovery in market demand, Rongsheng Petrochemical is expected to further enhance its influence in the global new materials supply chain - The company aims to align with industry trends such as product high-endization, cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and sustainable development - It plans to deepen its integrated refining advantages and drive industrial upgrades through technological innovation, accelerating its transition towards high-end, green, and intelligent operations [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in refining and polyester profitability, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance improvements [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 74.975 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.76%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 588 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62% [6] - The report highlights a recovery in refining profitability, driven by rising oil prices and increased travel demand, with an average price difference for crude oil catalytic cracking estimated at 1,108 USD/ton, up 13.4% year-on-year and 11.7% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The polyester industry is seeing profits concentrated in the downstream filament segment, with the filament price difference recovering significantly [6] - The collaboration with Saudi Aramco is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects for the company [6] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 4.311 billion, 6.389 billion, and 8.437 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 19X, 13X, and 10X respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 345.713 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.311 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 495% [5] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 11.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9% [5]