以下文章来源于智象出海 ，作者王玮 智象出海 . 深度研究新经济出海。 来源丨智象出海（ID：zxchuhai） 作者丨王玮 2024年9月，旺旺豪掷人民币1.38亿元，买下了一架商务机。对于这架商务机的用途，官方解释称，除了方便管理层国内往返，也需要"更频密往返不同的海外地 区"。 2023财年，旺旺海外业务增幅达到双位数，受益于海外市场及新兴渠道的增长，米果大类收益同比增长2.3%，收入达59.77亿元。其中，海外市场占比约20%。旺 旺称，"要把海外市场当未来的中国市场来做"。 "剑走偏锋"，插入东南亚 若论最早的中国零食品牌出海，当属洽洽食品和晋江系产品，2000年左右，它们就已经开始了出海之路。 但那个年代的出海都相对被动，比如洽洽出海的故事是：一位中国香港的代理商在北京参加海外华人华侨新年恳谈会时吃到了洽洽瓜子，觉得很好吃，又勾起了 思乡之情，于是就成为了洽洽出海合作的第一位代理商。洽洽在马来西亚的早期代理，也基本是同样的路线，海外华人成为洽洽出海初期的代理商网络。 晋江系产品早期出海也主要是借助海外华人的力量，他们委托晋江本地的亲戚"组货"，再凭借自身的货运渠道将产品运往世界各地。 东南亚的吸引 ...

Core Insights - The snack industry has seen significant revenue growth, driven by new product launches and channel restructuring, including social e-commerce and discount stores [1][2] - Despite revenue growth, snack companies are facing challenges in maintaining profitability, with fluctuating sales expenses and gross margins [1][8] Revenue Growth Drivers - Major snack companies reported substantial revenue figures for 2024, with Three Squirrels leading at 10.622 billion, followed by other companies like Liangpinpuzi and Qiaqia Foods [2] - New product development has been highlighted as a key contributor to revenue, with Three Squirrels launching over 20 new products that achieved significant sales [3][4] Channel Expansion - The restructuring of sales channels has provided new opportunities for snack companies, with a focus on e-commerce and discount stores [5][6] - Three Squirrels reported an 81.73% increase in revenue from Douyin, indicating the effectiveness of digital marketing strategies [4] International Market Growth - Companies are increasingly targeting international markets, particularly Southeast Asia, to expand their growth potential [6][7] - Qiaqia Foods and other companies have reported significant growth in overseas sales, with Qiaqia's overseas revenue increasing by approximately 90% [6] Profitability Challenges - Many snack companies have experienced rising sales expenses, with increases ranging from 15.55% to 50.92%, primarily due to higher advertising costs [8][9] - Gross margins have shown volatility, with some companies reporting declines due to rising raw material costs and competitive pricing strategies [10] Dividend Distribution - Several companies have announced substantial cash dividends, reflecting confidence in their operational performance and future growth [11][12] - The total cash dividends and share buybacks for some companies represent a significant portion of their net profits, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [11]

根据《上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主板上市公司规范运作》及《公司 章程》的相关规定，杨煜坤先生的辞职报告自送达董事会之日起生效，截至本公 告披露日，杨煜坤先生未直接持有公司股份。 公司董事会对杨煜坤先生任职期间所做的工作及对公司发展做出的贡献表 示衷心的感谢！ 特此公告。 洽洽食品股份有限公司董事会 证券代码：002557 证券简称：洽洽食品 公告编号：2025-039 债券代码：128135 债券简称：洽洽转债 洽洽食品股份有限公司 关于高级管理人员辞职的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 洽洽食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会收到公司副总经理杨煜 坤先生的辞职报告。杨煜坤先生因个人原因辞去公司副总经理职务，辞职后不再 担任公司及公司控股子公司任何职务。杨煜坤先生所负责的相关工作已进行了交 接，其离职不会影响公司正常的生产经营。 二〇二五年四月三十日 1 ...

Group 1 - Wangwang invested RMB 138 million in a business jet to facilitate management's domestic and international travel, with a focus on expanding overseas operations [1] - In the fiscal year 2023, Wangwang's overseas business grew by double digits, with snack revenue reaching RMB 5.977 billion, accounting for approximately 20% of total revenue [1] - Southeast Asia has become a primary target for Chinese snack brands due to its large population and cultural similarities, with many brands already establishing a presence in the region [2][5] Group 2 - Companies like Qiaqia, Jinzhai, and Panpan have successfully penetrated the Southeast Asian market, with Qiaqia's Thailand subsidiary contributing RMB 400 million in revenue and nearly RMB 90 million in net profit in 2023 [2] - The Southeast Asian snack market is projected to reach USD 13.1 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.60% [3] Group 3 - Salted snacks and other unique Chinese products are gaining traction in Southeast Asia, with brands like Yanjin and Qiaqia focusing on local market education to introduce their products [11][12] - The entry strategies of Chinese snack brands vary by country, with some targeting mature markets like Thailand and Singapore, while others focus on emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia [11] Group 4 - The retail landscape in Southeast Asia is diverse, with traditional community stores still dominating in Indonesia, where 80% of consumption occurs outside modern retail channels [17] - Successful market entry often relies on innovative channel strategies, as demonstrated by the ice cream brand Aice, which focused on community stores rather than traditional retail [14] Group 5 - Compliance with local regulations is crucial for market entry, with specific requirements for product certification and labeling in countries like Thailand and Indonesia [27] - Localization of products and supply chains is essential for success, with brands adapting flavors and ingredients to meet local preferences [28][31]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, revenue dropped to 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%, and net profit fell to 80 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year due to factors such as pre-holiday inventory buildup, weak market demand, intensified industry competition, and fluctuations in raw material prices [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other businesses reached 4.38 billion yuan (+2.6%), 1.92 billion yuan (+9.7%), and 830 million yuan (+5.6%) respectively. The overall performance of the seed category remained stable, with contributions from key products [2]. - The company achieved revenue of 2.27 billion yuan (+3.9%) in the southern region, 2.12 billion yuan (+9.5%) in the eastern region, and 1.34 billion yuan (-3.3%) in the northern region for 2024. E-commerce and international markets also showed growth, with revenue from e-commerce reaching 780 million yuan (+8.9%) and international markets at 50 million yuan (-20.6%) [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 28.8%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 19.5%, a decrease of 11.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to raw material cost pressures [3]. - The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 10.0%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 was 10.6%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. The management expense ratio for 2024 was 4.3%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 4.6% in Q1 2025, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its distribution channels, particularly in underdeveloped markets, and exploring partnerships with core cities. It is also enhancing its upstream raw material control and expects a decrease in raw material prices in the new procurement season [4]. - The company is implementing various strategies to address short-term pressures, including product promotions and expanding its product range, which is expected to help navigate through the operational cycle [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 720 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 920 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.42 yuan, 1.65 yuan, and 1.81 yuan. The company is expected to accelerate its operations as consumer demand recovers [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a revenue increase of 4.8% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 7.13 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 5.8% to 850 million yuan, indicating stable growth despite challenges in Q1 2025 due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a decline of 13.8% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 67.9% to 77.24 million yuan [1]. - The company's core products, sunflower seeds and nuts, achieved revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 2.6% and 9.7% [1]. Market Segmentation - Revenue from distribution and other channels was 5.67 billion yuan, down 1.4%, while direct sales (including snacks, e-commerce, and key accounts) surged by 38.3% to 1.46 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - The Eastern region, e-commerce, and overseas markets outperformed the overall company growth, with revenues of 2.12 billion yuan, 780 million yuan, and 570 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9.5%, 8.9%, and 10.3% [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 28.8%, with a decline to 19.5% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year change of +2.0 and -11.0 percentage points respectively [3]. - The gross margins for sunflower seeds and nuts in 2024 were 29.7% and 27.2%, with year-on-year changes of +4.5 and -4.4 percentage points [3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 11.9%, decreasing to 4.9% in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of +0.1 and -8.3 percentage points respectively [4]. - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance post-Q1 2025, with projected net profits of 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, focusing on the development of nuts and sunflower seeds, with strong performance in overseas and direct sales channels. However, the profitability faced significant pressure in Q1 2025, awaiting recovery in subsequent periods [2][10] - The company reported a revenue of 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, with a gross margin rising by 2.02 percentage points to 28.78% [10] - The report revises the EPS forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.25 yuan and 1.71 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 EPS at 1.93 yuan [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 68.06 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth expected in subsequent years [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 803 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 630 million yuan in 2025, followed by recovery to 975 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 14.5% in 2023, increasing to 15.5% by 2027 [4] Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 23.89 yuan and 37.50 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 12.085 billion yuan [5] - The report indicates a current price of 23.89 yuan, with a target price set at 28.13 yuan per share [10] Sales Performance - The company’s sales in the sunflower seed segment reached 4.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.60%, while the nut segment achieved 1.924 billion yuan, up 9.74% [10] - Direct sales channels showed a significant increase of 38.29% year-on-year, contributing 1.462 billion yuan to revenue [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit to 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from distribution and other channels was 5.67 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, while direct sales (including bulk snacks, e-commerce, and key accounts) reached 1.46 billion yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.8% and 19.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 11.0 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 11.9% and 4.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 8.3 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 13, and 12 [6][7]. Company Overview - Qiaqia Foods Co., Ltd. primarily produces nut snacks and baked leisure foods, with key products including Qiaqia red bag melon seeds and various nut mixes [8]. - In 2023, the company was recognized as one of the "Top 500 Asian Brands" with a brand value of 46.868 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company has expanded its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, and is actively developing the Southeast Asian market [4]. - The company’s sales in the Eastern region and e-commerce channels have shown higher growth rates compared to overall company performance, indicating a strong market position [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gaining attention due to increased external uncertainties and positive domestic policy signals, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12][16] - The liquor sector is expected to show a "front low, back high" performance trend for the year, with a focus on inventory digestion in the first half and gradual demand recovery in the second half [17][32] - The consumer goods sector, particularly those related to the catering supply chain and benefiting from fertility policy catalysts, is highlighted for potential investment opportunities [39] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Expectations and Industry Focus - Increased external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on domestic demand as a crucial element for economic growth [12] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively influenced market confidence, with a comprehensive action plan to enhance consumer spending [13][16] 2. Liquor Sector - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 10%, with a focus on inventory management during the off-peak season [17] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-range and regional brands are experiencing varied performance based on market conditions [19] - Major liquor companies are engaging in share buybacks and increasing shareholdings to bolster market confidence [24][30] 3. Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention to the seasoning, beer, dairy, and snack segments [39] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in restaurant consumption, while the beer sector is poised for growth due to the resurgence of dining scenarios [40] - Dairy demand is anticipated to rise following the introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions, which could positively impact dairy company performance [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 28.8%, with a significant drop to 19.5% in Q1 2025, influenced by rising raw material costs and competitive pressures in the nut market [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 7.13 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.79% compared to the previous year [7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 11.9%, while for Q1 2025, it is expected to drop to 4.9% [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Qiaqia Foods has been expanding its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, with a focus on Southeast Asia and entry into the Costco channel in Canada [4]. - The company is actively managing its sales and administrative expenses in response to the revenue pressures experienced in Q1 2025 [5].