原材料成本压力增大拖累毛利，盈利亟待修复。1、24年毛利率28.8%，同比+2.0pp；25Q1毛利率19.5%， 同比-11.0pp。25Q1毛利率下滑较多主要系原材料成本压力，受内蒙水灾影响葵花籽价格虽然Q1环比有所 下降但是依然高于去年同期，部分坚果原材料如巴旦木、腰果受关税影响价格上涨。2、24年销售费用率 10.0%，同比+0.9pp；25Q1销售费用率10.6%，同比-1.8pp。24年管理费用率4.3%，同比+0.1pp；25Q1管理 费用率4.6%，同比+0.9pp。规模效应虽有减弱，但费用率基本保持平稳。3、24年净利率11.9%，同比 +0.1pp；25Q1净利率4.9%，同比-8.3pp；由于费用管控得当，净利率下滑幅度小于毛利率。 经营节奏稳健，静待龙头穿越周期。渠道方面，公司拓展下沉市场专业经销商、探索核心城市联合业代模 式，瓜子业务与餐饮、零食专营等新兴渠道深度合作，坚果业务加大年节坚果团购及礼盒渠道终端开拓迎 合行业礼赠场景修复。成本方面，公司加码上游原料布局强化原料掌控，国葵种植面积进一步提升，新采 购季葵花籽原材料价格后续有望回落带来成本改善，坚果业务规模效应逐步凸显以及原材 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a revenue increase in 2024 but faced significant declines in Q1 2025 due to various market pressures and competition [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 reached 7.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.57 billion yuan, a decline of 13.8% year-on-year [1][2] - Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 80 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year [1][2] - Q1 2025 non-recurring net profit was 60 million yuan, a decrease of 73.8% year-on-year [1][2] Product Performance - In 2024, revenue from sunflower seeds increased by 2.6%, with strong growth in key products [1] - Nut revenue grew by 9.7% in 2024, with gift boxes seeing double-digit growth [1] - The daily nut series experienced a slight decline in revenue [1] Cost and Profitability - The company saw a recovery in profitability in 2024, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 2.0 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively [1] - Sunflower seed gross margin improved to 29.7%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin and net margin were 19.5% and 4.9%, down 11.0 and 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2] Market Challenges - Q1 2025 revenue decline was attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and high base effects from the previous year [2] - Increased competition in the nut market and a decline in traditional channel traffic contributed to the revenue drop [2] - Rising raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds and nuts, added significant pressure on profitability [2] Future Outlook - The company is adjusting its product and channel strategies amid rising costs and intense competition [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 7.46 billion, 7.80 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 4.4%, and 4.5% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 690 million, 870 million, and 980 million yuan, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food reported a dual growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, but experienced a decline in both metrics in the first quarter of 2025 due to seasonal effects and rising raw material costs [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit of 849 million yuan, up 5.82% [3][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.76%, and a net profit of 77 million yuan, down 67.88% [5][6]. Product Contribution - Sunflower seeds contributed over 61.45% of the total revenue, generating 4.382 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.60% and a gross margin of 29.68% [4]. - Nut revenue was 1.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.74%, accounting for 26.97% of total revenue, but with a gross margin of 27.18%, down 4.38% [4]. Dealer Network - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had 1,380 dealers, with 1,272 in China and 108 overseas, a decrease of 99 dealers compared to the end of 2023 [4]. R&D Investment - The company increased its R&D expenditure by 17.15% to 75.684 million yuan, focusing on technological innovation across various production stages [4]. Non-Recurring Gains - In 2023, non-recurring gains amounted to 76.813 million yuan, accounting for 9.04% of net profit, with government subsidies making up 75.604 million yuan, or 8.90% of net profit [4].

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food reported a year-on-year increase in both revenue and net profit for 2024, but the stock price declined due to low growth rates and market concerns [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Qiaqia Food achieved a revenue of approximately 71.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 8.49 billion yuan, up 5.82% [4][10]. - The company's revenue from sunflower products was about 43.82 billion yuan, accounting for 61.45% of total revenue, while nut products generated approximately 19.24 billion yuan, making up 26.97% of total revenue [5][19]. Profitability - The gross margin for nut products in 2024 was 27.18%, down 4.38% year-on-year, while the gross margin for sunflower products was 29.68%, up 4.45% [6][12]. Strategic Initiatives - Qiaqia Food is focusing on developing a third growth curve by exploring new snack categories such as crispy potato chips and nut milk through a "horse racing" strategy, which emphasizes market performance and potential [7][8]. - The company aims to enhance its channel coverage and expand into new markets, including overseas, to support revenue growth [11][12]. Sales Channels - The company has established a global marketing network primarily through distributors, with 1,380 distributors as of the end of 2024, including 1,272 in China and 108 overseas [16]. - Qiaqia Food's sales through the snack wholesale channel reached approximately 4.5 billion yuan in 2024, with plans to increase SKU offerings in this channel [14][20]. Cost Management - Sales expenses for Qiaqia Food rose to about 7.12 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.55%, marking the highest sales expenses since its listing [20][21]. - The company plans to manage expenses while continuing to invest in brand promotion and marketing efforts [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30 yuan [2][7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 849 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 showed a decline in net profit by 24.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 76.12%, distributing a total of 649 million yuan in cash dividends [2][8]. - Despite facing operational adjustments and external pressures, the company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth throughout the year, although profit pressures may persist in the short term [2][7]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue of 7.13 billion yuan, net profit of 849 million yuan, and earnings per share (EPS) of 1.68 yuan [8]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue of 7.43 billion yuan, net profit of 702 million yuan, and EPS of 1.39 yuan, reflecting a decrease in profit due to market conditions [8]. - **2026-2027 Projections**: Revenue is projected to grow to 7.85 billion yuan in 2026 and 8.27 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to recover to 855 million yuan and 982 million yuan respectively [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 25, 2025, is 23.99 yuan, with a 12-month high of 37.50 yuan and a low of 23.99 yuan [4][8]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 12.135 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 12.110 billion yuan [4][8]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing product quality to maintain brand strength amidst increasing competition and market pressures. This includes improving the quality of raw materials and increasing the proportion of high-quality products [2][7]. - The company is also adapting to market demands by implementing promotional strategies while maintaining product quality [2][7].

商业世界的故事、逻辑、认知。由"和讯商业"团队出品。 以下文章来源于和讯商业 ，作者孟圆 和讯商业 . 螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后，零食行业的后来者不只一位，量贩渠道的力量正在不断渗透。 随着市场竞争 加剧，行业逻辑也正在被改写。 截至4月24日收盘，洽洽食品（002557.SZ）报价23.99元，日跌7.37%，盘中一度逼近跌停，已触 及近三年最低水平。这主要是受一季度业绩超预期下滑影响。 面对近期股价接连下跌，洽洽食品此前在投资者互动平台表示，公司正在实施回购股份计划。 2024年，洽洽食品还算交出一份稳定的答卷，营收净利润双增长，业绩稍有回暖，但同时公布的 2025年一季报却再遭滑铁卢，营收下降超13%，净利润下滑近七成。另一端，竞争对手三只松鼠 （300783.SZ）则高歌猛进，以106.22亿元的营收和49.3%的增速，重回百亿营收高位。 从年报来看，三只松鼠显得从容许多。 2024年，三只松鼠结束营收连续四年的下滑状态，以106.22 亿元的营收创历史新高，同比增速达49.3% ；实现归母净利润 4.08 亿元，增长85.51%；归母扣非 净利润3.19亿元，同比大增214.3%，其增长动力主要来自抖音等 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit in Q1 2025 were slightly below expectations, with revenue of 1.57 billion and net profit of 80 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.8% and 67.9% respectively. This decline is attributed to rising costs and a high base from the previous year [4][5] - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2025-2026 downwards due to cost pressures, with projected net profits of 780 million, 910 million, and 1.01 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -8.5%, +16.6%, and +11.2% respectively [4][5] - Despite the challenges, the company is actively seeking new growth avenues and expanding into new channels, which supports the "Outperform" rating [4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from leisure snacks grew by 4.8%, with volume and price increases of 1.0% and 3.8% respectively. However, Q1 2025 saw a revenue decline of 13.8%, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and early inventory buildup for the Spring Festival [5] - The company's gross margin for 2024 improved to 28.78%, while the net margin was 11.92%. However, Q1 2025 saw a gross margin decline to 19.5% due to rising sunflower seed prices [6] Cost and Expense Management - The report indicates that the cost of raw materials has increased, impacting profitability in the short term. The sales expense ratio increased due to a 27% rise in advertising and promotional expenses [6] - The company is expected to face continued cost pressures in the first half of 2025, but there is potential for relief in the second half as sunflower seed prices are projected to decline [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary indicates a revenue forecast of 7.639 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%. The projected net profit for 2025 is 778 million, reflecting a decline of 8.5% [9] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 15.6, 13.4, and 12.0 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement over the forecast period [9]

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food achieved a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.79%, and a net profit of 849 million yuan, up 5.82% year-on-year, indicating a successful breakthrough in revenue and potential for future growth through channel expansion and overseas markets [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Highlights - The revenue of Qiaqia Food surpassed 7 billion yuan, driven by the expansion of new channels and market penetration [1][4] - The "Kuaizhen" high-end product line has shown continuous growth through new channel expansions such as high-end membership stores and boutique supermarkets [2] - The sales of nut gift boxes have been steadily increasing, with nut revenue accounting for nearly 27% of total revenue in 2024, showcasing a strong second growth curve for the company [2][4] Group 2: Brand Development and Market Position - Qiaqia Food has strengthened its brand image with initiatives like the new brand proposition "Happiness is Qiaqia" and collaborations with popular figures and events to appeal to younger consumers [3] - The company has maintained its position as the market leader in the nut and snack industry, with a brand value of 52.678 billion yuan, ranking among the "Asia's Top 500 Brands" [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Advantages - Qiaqia Food has established over 1 million acres of sunflower planting bases in major production areas and collaborates with international suppliers to ensure quality raw materials [5] - The company operates 11 factories globally, with the latest factory in Baotou set to enhance production efficiency and quality control [5] - The "transparent factory" initiative reflects the company's commitment to product quality and brand strength, combining technological innovation with marketing [5] Group 4: Future Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from channel penetration into lower-tier markets and the development of new sales channels, including community fresh supermarkets and discount stores [6] - The overseas market is also anticipated to provide new growth opportunities for Qiaqia Food [6]

Group 1: Yanjing Beer - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue growth of 6.69% to 3.827 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 61.1% to 165 million yuan [1] - The company achieved beer sales of 995,000 kiloliters, with the flagship product Yanjing U8 maintaining a growth rate of over 30% [1] Group 2: Shunxin Agriculture - Shunxin Agriculture's revenue decreased by 13.85% to 9.126 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 178.20% to 231 million yuan [2] - Low-end liquor revenue grew by 5.08% to 4.974 billion yuan, while high-end and mid-range liquor revenues saw declines [2] Group 3: Danone - Danone's Q1 2025 revenue grew by 4.3% to 6.844 billion euros [3] - Sales in China, North Asia, and Oceania increased by 9.9%, driven by volume and product mix [3] - The infant formula segment, particularly the Essensis series, continued to expand market share [3] Group 4: Miaokelando - Miaokelando reported a Q1 revenue growth of 6.26% to 1.233 billion yuan [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 114.88% to 82.4 million yuan [4] - The company plans to innovate children's cheese products for older age groups while continuing to develop adult cheese products [4] Group 5: Baolingbao - Baolingbao's total revenue for 2024 was 2.402 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.84% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 105.97% to 111 million yuan [5] - Key products such as prebiotics and dietary fibers saw significant revenue growth [5] Group 6: Muyuan Foods - Muyuan Foods reported a Q1 revenue of 36.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26% [6] - The company achieved a net profit of 4.491 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [6] Group 7: Ziyuan Foods - Ziyuan Foods plans to invest 70 million yuan in its subsidiary and up to 35 million USD in Green Tea Group's IPO [7] Group 8: Qiaqia Foods - Qiaqia Foods reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 4.79% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 849 million yuan, an increase of 5.82% [8] - The company expanded its e-commerce channels and overseas markets, achieving significant growth [9] Group 9: Yanjinpuzi - Yanjinpuzi's revenue increased by 28.89% to 5.304 billion yuan in 2024 [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 26.53% to 640 million yuan [10] - The company focused on six core product categories and achieved significant supply chain improvements [10] Group 10: Hengshun Vinegar - Hengshun Vinegar reported a revenue of 2.196 billion yuan, a 4.25% increase [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 46.54% to 127 million yuan [11] - The company implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [11] Group 11: Kemin Foods - Kemin Foods announced the election of Chen Hong as the chairman of the board [12] Group 12: Gaoxin Retail - Gaoxin Retail expects a tax profit of approximately 350 to 400 million yuan for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 1.668 billion yuan [13] - The improvement is attributed to stable sales growth and effective cost reduction measures [13] Group 13: Bubugao - Bubugao reported a Q1 revenue of 1.153 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.22% [14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 119 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 488.44% [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit in Q1 2025 were slightly below expectations, with revenue declining by 13.8% year-on-year and net profit down by 67.9% year-on-year due to rising costs [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan and a net profit of 849 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and 5.8% respectively [4] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 778 million yuan, 907 million yuan, and 1.008 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year change of -8.5%, +16.6%, and +11.2% respectively [4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's snack revenue grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with specific categories like seeds and nuts increasing by 2.6% and 9.7% respectively [5] - The decline in Q1 2025 revenue is attributed to a high base from the previous year and early inventory buildup for the Spring Festival [5] - The gross margin for 2024 improved to 28.78%, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 decreased to 19.5% due to rising sunflower seed prices [6] Cost and Expense Management - The company experienced an increase in raw material prices, which pressured profitability in Q1 2025 [6] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs increased slightly in 2024, with sales expenses rising significantly due to a 27% increase in advertising and promotional costs [6] Growth Potential - The company is actively exploring new product categories and expanding its distribution channels, which is expected to support steady revenue growth [7] - Despite the cost pressures from raw material prices, there is an expectation that costs may ease in the second half of 2025 [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 7.639 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.6, 13.4, and 12.0 respectively [9]