证 券 研 究 报 告 批发销量节奏调整，静待后续产品周期 目标价：113.8 元、116.3 港元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 805,565 | 943,584 | 1,070,539 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 13.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 35,214 | 47,042 | 59,979 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | -12.5% | 33.6% | 27.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.42 | 3.86 | 5.16 | 6.58 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 23 | 17 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 3 日收盘价 公司研究 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 ...

【瑞银 】看好南瑞科技，因电网资本支出上行周期超出市场预期，将其加入"最佳投资组合" 近期的政策发展强化了2026-2030年电网资本支出将进入一个可见的上行周期的观点，预计复合年增长率 （CAGR）为7%，这超出了市场预期。 瑞银的公用事业团队认为，7%的CAGR是一个保守的基线增长率，实际的复合年增长率可能因骨干电网和配电网 建设的加速而达到11%。 从历史上看，南瑞科技的增长速度大约是国家电网 【瑞银 】看好南瑞科技，因电网资本支出上行周期超出市场预期，将其加入"最佳投资组合" 近期的政策发展强化了2026-2030年电网资本支出将进入一个可见的上行周期的观点，预计复合年增长率 （CAGR）为7%，这超出了市场预期。 瑞银的公用事业团队认为，7%的CAGR是一个保守的基线增长率，实际的复合年增长率可能因骨干电网和配电网 建设的加速而达到11%。 发改委引入容量电价机制，显著提升电网侧独立储能项目的经济性 国家发改委于1月30日发布了114号文，为电网侧的独立新型储能引入了容量电价机制。 根据该框架，被纳入省级项目清单的储能项目可以获得容量电价补偿，该补偿基准于当地的煤电容量电价（预计 2026年约为16 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a "wait and see" strategy among automakers as they navigate a challenging market environment, with many companies preparing for significant product launches post-Chinese New Year (CNY) while monitoring demand trends closely [54]. - Weekly order trends from January 26 to February 1 show a decline in demand for major electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, with notable decreases in order volumes compared to previous weeks [2][3]. - The anticipated pre-CNY buying rush is expected to be less impactful this year, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) adopt a cautious approach until demand shows signs of recovery [54]. - Approximately 25 localities began accepting applications for trade-in subsidies in January, but the effectiveness of these subsidies is expected to be clearer only after the CNY break [54]. Summary by Relevant Sections Order Trends - BYD: 41-42k orders (down 8% week-over-week, down 41% month-over-month) [2] - NIO: 3.9-4.1k orders (down 5% week-over-week, down 49% month-over-month) [2] - XPeng: 7.5-7.7k orders (down 9% week-over-week, down 15% month-over-month) [2] - Tesla China: 9.5-9.7k orders (down 3% week-over-week, down 4% month-over-month) [2] - Aito: 5.2-5.4k orders (down 7% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] - Geely Galaxy: 15-15.2k orders (down 6% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] Market Environment - The report highlights that despite some seasonal promotions, the overall market remains tough, leading to a cautious outlook from manufacturers [54]. - The report suggests that the industry is in a transitional phase, with companies waiting for clearer signals of demand recovery before making significant moves [54].

2025年，全球新能源汽车产业迎来历史性转折。长期在新能源汽车总销量上保持第一的比亚迪，以全年 225.7万辆的纯电动汽车销量，首次超越特斯拉，登顶全球榜首。这一历史性超越，其背后是中国汽车 品牌凭借体系化创新与战略性全球化，引领全球汽车产业核心赛道。 比亚迪实现超越的背后，是建立在其长期构筑的全产业链技术护城河之上。2025年，比亚迪推出"天神 之眼"辅助驾驶系统、"超级e平台兆瓦闪充"等核心技术，实现了智能化与电动化的再次突破与进化，而 其垂直整合的供应链模式，确保了技术和产品快速迭代的极致效率，在全球化竞争中，构成了难以复制 的核心优势。 这一系统性优势在全球核心市场得到了充分验证。在欧洲，比亚迪实现了从单一产品切入到体系化突破 的转变。其在英国市场销量超过5万辆，同比激增485%；在德国、西班牙、意大利等传统汽车强国，年 销量均突破2万辆。这一成绩不仅源于产品矩阵的完善与设计品质的认可，更得益于其销售与服务网络 的快速本土化铺设。在亚太等增长型市场，比亚迪的领先优势更为显著：在土耳其、泰国，其年销量分 别达到4.5万与4.1万辆，泰国本地化工厂的投产大幅增强了市场主导力；在新加坡、马来西亚等市场， 其 ...

2026年开年1月的中国车市，用"冰火两重天"形容再贴切不过。 过去三天，不少车企都发布了1月份的销量业绩，可以说绝大多数车企都挂上了负增长的标签，特别是一些头部新能源车企，其1月销量波动更 为严峻。 乘联会数据显示，全月乘用车零售预计180万辆，环比下滑20.4%，同比仅微增；新能源零售销量可能达80万辆左右，渗透率降至44.4%，较 2025年底的峰值跌落近10个百分点。 在这场开年"寒流"中，车企阵营分化彻底拉满，拥有庞大燃油车基盘的大多数车企稳如泰山，而绝大多数单押新能源的品牌集体承压，新势力 内部更是有人狂欢有人落寞。 透过这份成绩单，我们似乎可以发现中国市场越来越明显的竞争逻辑，那就是即便新能源是未来发展的大趋势，但"双腿走路才稳"的路径愈加 清晰。 燃油车托底者稳，单押新能源者惨，出口是重要支撑 1月的销量数据，像一面放大镜，照出了不同车企战略选择的最终结果。核心分化点清晰明了，即是否拥有燃油车基本盘，直接决定了企业在市 场波动中的抗风险能力。 以吉利、上汽、广汽丰田为代表的传统车企，凭借"燃油+新能源"双线布局，在1月交出了最稳健的答卷。 上汽集团1月销量32.74万辆，同比增长23.94%， ...

Group 1 - BYD's stock price increased by 0.37% on February 3, with a trading volume of 3.276 billion yuan. The financing buy amount was 222 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 307 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of -84.82 million yuan. The total financing and securities balance reached 12.823 billion yuan [1] - As of February 3, BYD's financing balance was 12.771 billion yuan, accounting for 2.69% of its circulating market value, which is below the 50th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low position [1] - On the same day, BYD's securities lending saw a repayment of 34,600 shares and a sale of 32,900 shares, with a selling amount of 2.8745 million yuan. The remaining securities lending volume was 601,400 shares, with a balance of 52.5446 million yuan, exceeding the 70th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high position [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, BYD had 642,600 shareholders, an increase of 98.37% compared to the previous period. The average circulating shares per person were 5,427, an increase of 51.21% [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, BYD achieved an operating income of 566.266 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.75%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.55% to 23.333 billion yuan [2] - BYD has distributed a total of 27.859 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 24.414 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

Core Viewpoint - China, as the largest developing country and greenhouse gas emitter, has made significant progress in low-carbon economic development, aiming to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 through green energy and clean technology initiatives [1][12]. Low-Carbon Economy Overview - The low-carbon economy is based on low energy consumption, low emissions, and low pollution, focusing on technological innovation, institutional reform, industrial transformation, and renewable energy development [3][4]. Industry Development History - The concept of a low-carbon economy emerged in the UK in 2003, with significant milestones including the 2006 Stern Report advocating for global transition to low-carbon economies and China's first national climate change assessment report [4][6]. Industry Policies - A series of policies have been implemented to promote low-carbon economic development, including the 2025 government work report emphasizing the acceleration of green low-carbon economy development and the establishment of a national carbon market [7][8]. Industry Chain - The low-carbon economy industry chain includes upstream low-carbon energy supply and technology research, midstream low-carbon enterprises, and downstream applications such as green buildings and renewable energy generation [8]. Current Industry Status - The national carbon trading market is a key component of the low-carbon economy, with significant growth in trading volume and value, reaching a cumulative transaction volume of 865 million tons and a transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [9][10]. Key Enterprises - Major companies in China's low-carbon economy include Dongjiang Environmental Protection, Ningde Times, BYD, and others, each focusing on various aspects of environmental services, clean energy, and technology innovation [14][15]. Industry Development Trends - Technological innovation is crucial for low-carbon economic growth, with advancements in renewable energy and storage technologies driving down costs and improving efficiency [17]. - Government support through policies and funding will continue to encourage research and development in low-carbon technologies [18]. - Increasing market demand for low-carbon products, driven by consumer awareness and global climate governance, will further stimulate growth in the low-carbon economy [18].

证 券 研 究 报 告 批发销量节奏调整，静待后续产品周期 目标价：113.8 元、116.3 港元 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 年 02 月 04 日 比亚迪（002594）2026 年 1 月销量点评 强推（维持） 当前价：87.37 元、90.00 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：夏凉 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 805,565 | 943,584 | 1,070,539 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 13.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 35,214 | 47,042 | 59,979 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | -12.5% | 33.6% | 27 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China experienced a significant month-on-month decline in January 2026, influenced by changes in tax policies and early consumer demand, while year-on-year sales remained relatively stable [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China were approximately 1.8 million units, representing a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% and a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1]. - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in January were around 800,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 40.2%, but a month-on-month growth of 7.5% [1]. - Major traditional automakers like SAIC and Geely surpassed BYD in sales, with SAIC selling 327,000 units (up 23.9% year-on-year) and Geely selling 270,200 units (up 1.3% year-on-year) [2]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Segment - In the new energy vehicle sector, brands like Xiaomi, Hongmeng Zhixing, and NIO saw significant year-on-year growth, with Xiaomi's sales increasing by 95% to over 39,000 units [3][4]. - NIO delivered 27,200 units in January, marking a 96% year-on-year increase, driven by the new ES8 model [4]. - Conversely, companies like XPeng and Li Auto experienced declines, with XPeng's deliveries down 47% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Pressures - The automotive industry is facing rising costs, with single-vehicle costs increasing by 4,000 to 7,000 yuan due to surging prices of key materials like lithium, aluminum, and DRAM [5][6]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 75,700 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2025 to 146,600 yuan per ton by February 3, 2026, a nearly 94% increase [5]. - UBS reported that the cost increases in metals and chips could compress profit margins significantly, with potential reductions of 33% to 93% for vehicles priced at 150,000 yuan [6]. Group 4: Strategic Directions - To counteract rising costs and stagnant market demand, automakers are focusing on international expansion, with Chery exporting 119,600 units in January, accounting for nearly 60% of its total sales [7]. - BYD's overseas sales exceeded 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%, while Geely's exports grew by over 120% [7]. - Companies are also targeting the high-end market, with Great Wall Motors launching the WEY brand's flagship V9X, indicating a competitive push in the premium segment [9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The automotive consumption index for January 2026 was reported at 31.1, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment influenced by various factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival and changes in tax policies [10]. - Industry experts suggest that the market may not see a clear recovery until March or the end of the first quarter [10].

南方财经2月4日电，南财投研通数据显示，2月3日，券商给予上市公司目标价共14次，按最新收盘价计 算，目标价涨幅排名居前的公司有贵州茅台、炬芯科技、比亚迪，目标价涨幅分别为76.28%、 61.28%、49.51%，分别属于白酒、半导体、乘用车行业。从券商推荐家数来看，2月3日有29家上市公 司得到券商推荐，其中比亚迪获得3家推荐，北京利尔、上汽集团均获得1家推荐。查看原文：贵州茅台 目标价涨幅超76%，29家上市公司获券商推荐丨券商评级观察刚刚 ...