中欧围绕纯电动汽车进口的价格承诺机制刚刚敲定，新的风波似乎又起苗头。近日，据欧洲媒体 Euractiv报道，欧盟委员会内部正在讨论一个可能显著影响中欧贸易的举动，即考虑将目前针对中国产 纯电动汽车的反补贴关税政策，扩大至自中国进口的混动车（包括插混车）。 欧洲销量快速增长以及关税壁垒的倒逼，正在加速中国车企欧洲本土化生产的实质性落地。除了奇瑞、 小鹏、广汽已经实现欧洲本土化生产组装外，按计划，比亚迪匈牙利乘用车工厂将于2026年第一季度试 生产，第二季度正式量产；零跑旗下车型同样将于2026年第三季度在Stellantis的西班牙工厂投产。再加 上供应链、研发、售后等环节的本土化布局，2026年中国车企在欧洲将从"产品出海"加速迈向"生态扎 根"。 插混车在欧销量激增 传出欧盟加税风声 据Euractiv报道，有欧盟官员向该媒体透露，欧盟委员会执行副主席、欧盟工业战略专员塞茹尔内多次 对中国产混动＼插混车在欧洲销量激增表达担忧。塞茹尔内质疑，中国产混动＼插混车与纯电动汽车并 无差别，为保障欧洲本土竞争者获得同等保护、维护公平的市场竞争环境，对纯电动汽车加征的反补贴 税也应延伸至混动＼插混车。 2026年1月1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the achievements of Zhongshan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing accelerated participation in the Greater Bay Area development and continuous optimization of urban development patterns [1] Group 1: Economic Development - Zhongshan's development pace in the Greater Bay Area has accelerated, with significant improvements in urban development patterns [1] - The Torch High-tech Zone has seen a continuous enhancement in development capabilities, with the construction of key industrial projects such as BYD, Cai Xun, and Oppein, leading to a comprehensive ranking of 40th among national high-tech zones, an improvement of 6 places compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Industrial Parks - The construction of the Cuiheng New Area has been expedited, with major industrial parks like the Zhongshan Life Science Park and Kangfang Bay Area Technology Park completed and operational [1] - Projects from major companies such as China General Nuclear Power Group and China Resources Gas have been introduced, contributing to the development of the region [1] - The basic completion of the "three vertical and three horizontal" road network on Ma'anshan Island and initial results in the eastern coastline remediation have been achieved, facilitating the formation of a high-quality new urban layout [1]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 汽车行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 智能驾驶加速推进，建议关注业绩期行情 月度产销：根据乘联会数据，1 月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为 180 万辆， 环比下降 20.4%，同比增长 0.3%。其中新能源零售量预计为 80 万左右，渗 透率约 44.4%。12 月全国乘用车市场零售 226.1 万辆，同比下降 14.0%，环 比增长 1.6%。2025 年累计零售 2,374.4 万辆，同比增长 3.8%。12 月全国乘 用车厂商批发 278.9 万辆，同比下降 9.0%，环比下降 7.0%；2025 年累计批 发 2,955.4 万辆，同比增长 8.8%。根据中汽协数据，12 月汽车产销分别完 成 329.6 万辆和 327.2 万辆，环比分别下降 6.7%和 4.6%，同比分别下降 2.1% 和 6.2%。2025 年，汽车产销分别完成 3453.1 万辆和 3440 万辆，同比分别 增长 10.4%和 9.4%。2025 年 12 月，乘用车产销分别完成 287.9 万辆和 284.7 万辆，环比分别下降 8.4%和 6.3%，同比分别下降 4.2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in January 2026 is characterized by a stark contrast, with most automakers experiencing negative growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, highlighting the importance of having a diversified product lineup that includes both fuel and electric vehicles [5][6][7]. Sales Performance Summary - In January, the retail sales of passenger cars are expected to reach 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decline of 20.4%, with NEV sales around 800,000 units, marking a penetration rate drop to 44.4%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than the peak at the end of 2025 [6][7]. - Traditional automakers like SAIC, Geely, and GAC Toyota reported stable sales due to their dual strategy of offering both fuel and NEVs, with SAIC's total sales reaching 327,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [10][11]. - Geely's total sales were 270,167 units, with fuel vehicles contributing significantly to its performance, while BYD faced a 30.11% decline in NEV sales, indicating the challenges faced by companies heavily reliant on NEVs [12][15]. Market Dynamics - The differentiation in sales performance among automakers is attributed to their strategic choices, particularly the presence of a fuel vehicle base, which enhances resilience against market fluctuations [9][19]. - The demand for fuel vehicles surged during the pre-Spring Festival period, as consumers preferred mature technology and the convenience of fuel vehicles for long-distance travel, further supported by the limited impact of policy changes on fuel vehicles [19][20]. Export Growth - Exports have become a crucial support for many leading automakers, with companies like Chery and SAIC reporting significant increases in overseas sales, indicating a dual strategy of maintaining domestic stability while expanding globally [17][18]. Future Outlook - The current market conditions signal a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, emphasizing the need for automakers to maintain a balanced portfolio of fuel and NEVs to navigate future uncertainties [22]. - Companies that can effectively manage their fuel vehicle base while rapidly advancing in the NEV sector are likely to emerge as market leaders, while those focusing solely on NEVs may face greater risks during market fluctuations [21][22].

| 序 | 企业/集团 | 新能源汽车销量(辆) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 比亚迪 | 210051 | | 2 | 吉利 | 124252 | | 3 | 上汽 | 85374 | | ব | 奇瑞 | 52131 | | 5 | 塞力斯 | 43034 | | e | 小米汽车 | 39000+ | | 1 | 零跑 | 32059 | | 8 | 理想 | 27668 | | 9 | 蔚来 | 27182 | | 10 | 广汽 | 26040 | | | | 数据来源：部分车企及上市公司外报数据 截至时间：2月2日 | 新年伊始，中国新能源汽车市场的竞争轮廓迅速显现，头部车企之间的差距在1月销量榜单中被进一步拉开。截 至2月2日，根据部分车企及上市公司对外披露的数据，比亚迪以超21万辆的新能源汽车销量位居行业首位，展现 出强大的市场竞争力，继续稳居中国新能源市场头部位置，并在主要车企中拉开明显差距。（深圳新闻网） ...

2025年的中国汽车市场，在政策延续与市场竞争的双重作用下，交出了一份兼具规模与质量的成绩单。产销连续17年稳居全球第一的背后，是新能源汽车的 强势领跑、自主品牌的持续崛起以及出口市场的稳步扩张。从这一串串销量数据中，不仅能看见市场格局的变换，更能清晰把握中国汽车产业由"规模领 先"迈向"质量取胜"的转型路径。 整体市场：产销再创新高 展现强大发展韧性 2025年，中国汽车产业顶住全球贸易保护、产业链重构及行业竞争加剧等多重压力，实现了超预期增长。中国汽车工业协会数据显示，2025年汽车产销分别 完成3453.1万辆和3440万辆，同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%，产销规模均创下历史新高。这一成绩的取得，离不开政策与市场的同频共振。 2025年初，"两新"政策加力扩围，拓展了消费品类别、设备更新支持范围，有效激活了车辆置换消费需求，尤其是三四线城市及下沉市场，老旧车辆更新换 代成为拉动销量的重要动力。与此同时，新能源汽车购置税的平稳过渡与充电基础设施的持续完善，进一步降低了新能源汽车潜在消费者的购车门槛和用车 顾虑。从市场需求来看，当前的消费结构正在发生明显变化，智能化配置、绿色出行成为消费者购车的重要考量因 ...

新能车ETF紧密跟踪中证新能源汽车产业指数，中证新能源汽车产业指数选取50只业务涉及新能源整 车、电机电控、锂电设备、电芯电池、电池材料等新能源汽车产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映 新能源汽车产业龙头上市公司证券的整体表现。 截至2026年2月4日 14:15，中证新能源汽车产业指数(930997)上涨0.51%，成分股银轮股份上涨10.01%， 亿华通上涨9.47%，盟固利上涨5.91%，富临精工上涨5.87%，宁德时代上涨4.91%。新能车ETF(515700) 上涨0.57%，最新价报2.46元。 消息面上，1月新能源车销量亮眼，造车新势力阵营的零跑汽车、蔚来、理想汽车等主要车企实现销量 同比增长。华为鸿蒙智行成绩亮眼，1月交付量同比增长高达65.6%。 开源证券指出，在购置税减免退坡及梯度以旧换新补贴预计对主流价位段新能源车销量造成较大影响的 背景下，2026年重点看好高端化发展方向。尊界S800连续蝉联超豪华轿车市场冠军，重点推荐国产超 豪华领军车企江淮汽车。其次，问界、极氪9X等车型在高端车市场持续放量，也有望明显增强相关车 企的业绩，看好赛力斯、吉利汽车等后续发展。同时，海外市场将继续成为车 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a significant growth wave in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a spiral growth pattern of "increased volume and price + technological leap" [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - By 2025, global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2297 GWh, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is anticipated to reach 70%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the effective production capacity of battery cells and various materials, making supply chain stability and efficiency crucial for capitalizing on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on two main topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, and B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers [6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The conference will feature specialized sessions on lithium carbonate futures, market volatility responses from lithium battery companies, and the potential of global lithium resources in 2026 [7][8]. - Notable participants include leading battery companies like CATL and BYD, as well as material suppliers covering the entire supply chain, including positive and negative materials, electrolytes, and separators [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2297 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is projected to be as high as 70%, driven by dual domestic and international demand [5]. - There exists a notable supply gap in battery cells and various materials, necessitating a focus on ensuring a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on two main topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, and B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers [6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The conference will feature specialized sessions on lithium carbonate futures, market volatility responses from lithium battery companies, and the potential of global lithium resources [7][8]. - Notable participants include leading battery companies like CATL and BYD, as well as material suppliers covering the entire supply chain, including cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, and separators [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Strategic Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to play a crucial role in energy transition and carbon neutrality goals as it enters a new planning phase [6]. - The summit aims to provide authoritative data releases, benchmark company rankings, and deep industry connections to facilitate high-quality development in the lithium battery sector [6].

机构：华泰证券 研究员：宋亭亭/王立献 2）供给端，我们预测公司1 月主动去库5 万辆左右，预计26 年将陆续上市长续航、带低温快充功能新 车（例如1 月发布26 款秦L，纯电续航由128km提至210km），降库为后续经销商端的新车铺货预留空 间。我们认为，公司1 月销量下滑较大，是淡季主动调结构，为春节后新车和新技术发布蓄力。 出口：1 月出口高增，全年目标剑指 130 万辆 1 月出口10 万辆（同比+51%），延续高增势头，海外市场是公司26 年销量增长的核心引擎。从产能 看，公司海外工厂加速落地，泰国工厂（年产能15 万辆）已稳定投产，巴西工厂（初期15 万辆/年）25 年7 月投产后快速爬坡，匈牙利工厂（预计26Q2 正式投产，可规避欧盟最高35.3%的反补贴税）。我们 预计，公司全年海外规划总产能或达80 万辆以上。渠道端同步发力，公司计划26 年底前将欧洲零售网 络扩至2000 家，覆盖90%以上市场。我们认为随着东南亚、欧洲等区域产能释放及交付提速，单月出 口量有望恢复至13 万辆以上，全年出口或超130 万辆。 技术：升级续航超充拓北方渗透，智驾数据优势或提升用户体验 智驾方面，截至25 ...