证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求强劲，价格弹性可期，开启新周期 --电动车2026年年度策略 首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199798 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 备注：全文的"预计"如果没有特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所电新组预测 1 摘要： 2 ◆ 26年国内预计销量同增15%，欧洲销量持续高增，全球有望14%增长，考虑带电量提升，预计动力电池维持20%增长。25年国内 汽车消费政策持续+购置税退坡前抢装+出口强劲，全年预期30%增长至1676万辆，26年购置税退坡，预计Q1需求短期承压，且 我们预计26年"两会后"以旧换新补贴续力释放，有望托底26年销量，叠加重卡+出口强势高增，预计2026年新能源车销量1925 万辆，同增15%。欧洲补贴退坡消化完毕，叠加25H2起新车周期，预计全年34%增长至394万辆，26年英国、意大利等市场政策 加码，叠加新车刺激，预计维持30%增长。美国不确定性增加，短期需求放缓，新车型延期，预计25年销量增速放缓至4% ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th China Automotive Golden Wrench Award ceremony was held in Beijing, aiming to establish a value coordinate system for automotive services in China [1] Group 1: Award Categories - The awards are divided into four categories: independent brands, joint venture brands, luxury brands, and new energy brands [8] - GAC Trumpchi and Geely Auto won awards in the independent brand category [8] - GAC Toyota, GAC Honda, and FAW-Volkswagen received honors in the joint venture brand category [8] - FAW Audi and FAW Hongqi were recognized in the luxury brand category [8] - Zeekr and AITO won awards in the new energy brand category for their excellent service [8] Group 2: Special Awards - A special "20th Anniversary Excellence Contribution Award" was established, with ten brands including FAW-Volkswagen and BYD receiving recognition [8] - 100 outstanding dealers were awarded the "2025 Golden Wrench Service Top 100 Quality Selected Stores" based on the GES-150 service evaluation standard [8] - Eight senior technicians received the "20th Anniversary Craftsman Award," and seven dealers were named "20th Anniversary Service Benchmark Stores" [8] Group 3: Historical Context - The Golden Wrench Award was initiated in 2006 by China Automotive Market magazine and Sohu Auto, with the aim of promoting service integrity in the automotive industry [10] - The award has evolved over 20 years, initially focusing on traditional fuel vehicle after-sales service and expanding to include new energy brands and new media service scenarios [10] - The award's foundation is linked to the "3.15" joint declaration of integrity service by car companies, which began in 2018 [10]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a new growth cycle for energy storage, projecting significant increases in installed capacity and demand in both domestic and international markets [2][5][32] - Domestic energy storage demand is driven by capacity pricing and innovative business models, with a projected installed capacity of 163 GWh in 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase, and 265 GWh in 2026, a 60% increase [2][32] - Internationally, the U.S. is experiencing a surge in demand due to AI data centers, while Europe and emerging markets are also showing strong growth potential [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, the introduction of capacity pricing subsidies by local governments has significantly boosted the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage projects, with IRR rates ranging from 6% to 12% [2][13] - The report notes that from January to November 2025, domestic energy storage bidding reached 190 GWh, a 138% increase year-on-year, with a total of 175 GWh awarded [2][27] - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic energy storage reached 72 GWh from January to October 2025, marking a 42% increase year-on-year [2][27] Group 3: International Market Trends - The U.S. is expected to see a demand for approximately 53 GWh of new energy storage installations in 2025, driven by AI data centers and peak load shortages [2][34] - In Europe, the energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected installation of 20 GWh in 2025, a 131% increase year-on-year, and 42 GWh in 2026, a 109% increase [2][34] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Australia, Southeast Asia, and South America, are anticipated to contribute to a combined installation of 34 GWh in 2025, a 220% increase year-on-year [2][34] Group 4: Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The global demand for energy storage batteries is projected to reach 628 GWh in 2025, a 91% increase, and 663 GWh in 2026, a 61% increase [2][6] - The report indicates that leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as Tesla and BYD, are expected to strengthen their market positions as battery prices stabilize and production capacity increases [2][6] - The integration of large battery cells is expected to reduce system costs by 10-15%, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading firms [2][6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends strong investment in large-scale energy storage companies, including Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and BYD, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the market [2][6] - It also highlights the potential for growth in residential and commercial energy storage sectors, suggesting companies like DeYe and Airo Energy as promising investment opportunities [2][6]

11 月新能源汽车表现强劲，动力电池产销同环比保持增长 [Table_Industry] 动力锂电 动力锂电《碳酸锂迎来上涨，钠电产业加速落 地》2025.11.20 动力锂电《电动重卡市场驶入增长快车道》 2025.10.22 动力锂电《再读固态电池投资机会》2025.09.11 动力锂电《再读固态电池投资机会》2025.08.29 动力锂电《固态电池正负极&集流体发展方向》 2025.08.26 股 票 研 究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 牟俊宇(分析师) | 0755-23976610 | moujunyu@gtht.com | S0880521080003 | | 余玫翰(分析师) | 021-23185617 | yumeihan@gtht.com | S0880525040090 | | 李依雯(研究助理) | 021-231 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The "Guidelines for Compliance with Price Behavior in the Automotive Industry" is expected to advance the anti-involution process, which will help regulate price competition in the domestic automotive sector [4][6]. - The implementation of these guidelines is anticipated to slow down the price war in the automotive market, leading to improved profit margins for manufacturers and dealers, particularly benefiting dealers who have seen a decline in profitability in recent years [6]. - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Zhongsheng Holdings, with related targets being Yongda Automotive and Harmony Auto. For vehicle manufacturers, recommended stocks include XPeng Motors, BYD, Leap Motor, Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile, Geely, SAIC Motor, and GAC Group [6]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The guidelines require automotive manufacturers to adopt pricing strategies based on production costs and market demand, ensuring compliance across all pricing behaviors in vehicle sales and financial services [6]. - Clear and fair pricing practices are mandated, including explicit rebate policies and respect for dealers' pricing autonomy [6]. Market Impact - The guidelines are expected to enhance the pricing ecosystem within the automotive supply chain, particularly benefiting manufacturers as they are the dominant players in the industry [6]. - For dealers, the guidelines promote transparent pricing, compliance in promotional activities, and prohibit misleading pricing tactics that could deceive consumers [6]. Financial Projections - The report includes performance forecasts and financial valuations for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026 [7]. - Companies such as Great Wall Motors, SAIC Motor, and BYD are highlighted with specific EPS and PE metrics, all rated as "Overweight" [7].

HONG KONG (AP) — Chinese demand for foreign luxury cars is waning as customers opt for more affordable Chinese brand models, often sold at big discounts, catering to their taste for fancy electronics and comfort. That is bad news for European carmakers like Porsche, Aston Martin, Mercedes-Benz and BMW that have long dominated the upper reaches of the world's largest auto market. A prolonged property downturn in China has left many consumers with little appetite for big purchases. Meanwhile, the well-to- ...

在品牌表现方面，今年前11个月全品类汽车总销量排名前五的品牌依次为：菲亚特（8,492辆）、比亚迪（6,875 辆）、雪佛兰（6,711辆）、大众（5,785辆）和雷诺（5,486辆）。在细分市场中，比亚迪在SUV领域位居榜首，在轿 车领域排名第四；小巴士领域则由江淮汽车位列第三；卡车市场方面，江淮和江铃保持领先地位，东风位列第四。 fund （原标题：乌拉圭2025年前11个月新车销量同比增长9.1%） 乌拉圭《国家报》2025年12月10日报道，根据乌拉圭汽车贸易协会的数据，11月该国新车单月销量为6,483辆，同 比微降1.7%。然而，前11个月的累计销量已达到64,477辆，同比增长9.1%。其中，SUV车型表现尤为亮眼，前11个月 销量大幅增长44.7%，达到21,054辆。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][18]. Core Insights - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy is expected to bolster demand resilience in 2026, although the marginal stimulus from subsidies is diminishing, leading to increased competition among domestic automakers [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities within the industry, particularly for companies that can differentiate their products [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Market Review - The automotive index remained flat over the past week, with the new energy vehicle index down by 1% [2][8]. - Year-to-date, the automotive index has increased by 19%, while the new energy vehicle index has only risen by 1% [9][10]. 2. Vehicle Trade-in Policy Continuation - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to boost consumption and investment efficiency, extending the "two new" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [15]. - From January to November 2025, the trade-in policy facilitated over 11.2 million vehicle exchanges [15]. 3. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high cost-performance ratios and emerging technologies, recommending leading firms such as Dechang Motor Holdings and Haoneng Co [18]. - It highlights the competitive pressure in the passenger vehicle market and recommends companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor for their differentiated product strategies [18]. - The report also identifies opportunities in the data center power supply sector, recommending Weichai Power and Yuchai International [18]. 4. Key Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, all rated as "Overweight" [19]. - Notable recommendations include BYD, which has a projected EPS of 3.80 for 2025, and Great Wall Motors, with an EPS of 1.53 for the same year [19].

以下文章来源于时代财经APP ，作者贺晴 时代财经APP . 聚焦于企业财经新闻，互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：44120230006 来源｜时代财经 作者 | 贺晴 编辑 | 张泽 作为汽车市场年底冲刺销量的关键期，今年11月的国内乘用车销量同比下滑。 12月11日，中国汽车工业协会（下称"中汽协"）发布最新一期的汽车工业产销情况，今年11月，乘用车国内销量241.4万辆，环比增长1%，同比下 降6.5%。作为参考，去年同期，乘用车国内销量环比增长12.8%、同比增长17.5%；2023年11月该数据亦录得同、环比双增。 此外，根据此前乘联会披露的数据，今年11月，国内狭义乘用车市场零售销量达222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降1.1%。 乘联会秘书长崔东树指出："今年国内车市零售累计增速从1-2月增长1.2%，3-6月增长15%，7-9月增速徘徊在6%左右，10-11月回落到偏低状 态，呈现4季度高基数的减速特征，基本符合年初判断的'前低中高后平'的走势。" 他强调，今年调节车市增速的重要政策是"以旧换新"补贴。由于今年的前期增长较快，政策补贴本身目标是稳定总体增长幅度，因此年末稳增速的现 象是合理 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights significant developments in the automotive industry, including the delivery milestones of electric vehicles, new carbon reduction targets from major manufacturers, and the introduction of innovative safety and technology features in new models [2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10][11] Group 2 - Tengshi D9 has achieved 300,000 deliveries since its launch in 2022, becoming the top-selling MPV in China for 2023 and 2024, breaking a 20-year monopoly of joint venture brands [2] - BMW aims to reduce carbon emissions by at least 60 million tons by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, increasing its previous target for 2030 by 50% [3] - Geely has opened a global safety center with an investment of 2 billion yuan, focusing on comprehensive vehicle safety testing, which is crucial as competition intensifies in the automotive market [4] - GAC Honda hosted the 2025 Zao Dream Festival, showcasing classic and modified models to engage younger consumers and strengthen brand perception [5] - Volvo's XC70 has surpassed 10,000 sales within 70 days of its launch, indicating strong market interest in its new luxury hybrid model [6][7] - Lantu's new model, L, has been launched with advanced features and a price range of 279,900 to 309,900 yuan, targeting the luxury mid-large hybrid sedan market [8] - Dongfeng Nissan's N6 has been launched with a price range of 99,900 to 129,900 yuan, featuring advanced driving assistance systems and targeting the hybrid vehicle segment [9] - Geely Galaxy has introduced a new generation of super AI range extension technology with its high-end MPV, marking its entry into the range-extended electric vehicle market [10] - Beijing Automotive's Ruisheng has launched the M8 MPV with multiple power modes and competitive pricing, focusing on the 120,000 to 250,000 yuan MPV market [11]