Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, indicating that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026 [3][19] - The pet economy remains a key growth area, highlighting investment opportunities in niche sectors [4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a downturn, with 2025 expected to see continued losses, leading to a price bottom in the first half of 2026 [5][19] - The chicken farming sector is also under pressure, with expectations of supply-side stabilization and demand recovery in 2026 [20] - The cattle farming sector is projected to face a supply contraction starting in 2026, which may last until 2027 [21] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The pet food industry is anticipated to maintain its growth trajectory, with leading companies increasing their market share despite challenges in export performance [5][4] - The blueberry market in Yunnan is expected to see profit realization from 2024 to 2025, with growth potential continuing into 2026-2027 [5] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is gaining traction as natural production declines, with early movers in this space likely to see performance improvements [5] Group 3: Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, DeKang Agriculture, TianKang Biological, and others in the pet food sector [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3949.83 points, with a decline of 0.56% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 1,296.161 billion yuan [1] Technical Analysis - A total of 112 A-shares experienced a death cross, where the 5-day moving average fell below the 10-day moving average [1] - Notable stocks with significant distance between their 5-day and 10-day moving averages include: - Shanshui Bide (300844) with a distance of -1.40% - Yingboer (300681) with a distance of -1.28% - Yake Technology (002409) with a distance of -1.06% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shanshui Bide (300844) saw a decline of 6.62% with a trading turnover rate of 3.31% [1] - Yingboer (300681) decreased by 2.30% with a turnover rate of 2.45% [1] - Yake Technology (002409) fell by 0.20% with a turnover rate of 2.33% [1] - Other notable declines include: - Bohai Automobile (600960) down by 3.53% - Western Gold (601069) down by 2.80% [1] Additional Stock Movements - Stocks such as Muyu (002714) and Qinglong (002457) showed slight increases of 0.80% and -3.28% respectively [2] - The stock performance of various companies indicates a mixed sentiment in the market, with several stocks experiencing declines while a few managed to gain [2]

Core Insights - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses, with the average selling price of live pigs dropping to 11.56 yuan/kg, leading to a loss of 71.95 yuan per head for self-bred pigs [1] - Analysts suggest that the current oversupply and weak demand may result in a "non-peak" season for pork prices in Q4, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The industry is expected to undergo capacity reduction, which may lead to an upward adjustment of pork price levels by 2026, benefiting low-cost producers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 18, 2025, the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Muyuan Foods (002714) leading with a 0.43% increase [1] - The Livestock ETF (516760) was quoted at 0.7 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 65.58% of the total index weight, indicating a concentration in a few key players [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock performance of key companies includes: - Muyuan Foods (002714): +0.43%, weight 11.37% - Haida Group (002311): +0.34%, weight 9.52% - Biological Shares (600201): +0.25%, weight 3.91% - Other notable declines include New Hope (000876): -1.01% and Tian康 Biological (002100): -1.96% [4]

Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active international expansion of Chinese companies, particularly from Henan province, showcasing their efforts in embracing globalization and enhancing their global presence through various strategies and innovations [7][11][18]. Group 1: Company Expansion Stories - Thinking of international markets, companies like SiNian Foods have successfully entered overseas markets, with their products now available in 149 Sam's Club locations across 15 states in the U.S. by 2025 [8][9]. - The beverage brand Mixue has opened over 53,000 stores globally, with more than 4,700 located overseas, significantly impacting the global beverage market [9]. - Weihu Group has expanded its international footprint, exporting products to over 170 countries and regions, with a focus on internationalization, digitalization, and green development [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Trends and Data - In the first ten months of the year, Henan province exported machinery and electrical products worth 317.23 billion yuan, a 28.6% increase, accounting for 65% of the province's total exports [11]. - The export of "new three types" products reached 23.35 billion yuan, with electric vehicle exports alone growing by 254.4% [11]. - The number of companies in Henan with import and export achievements increased by 3,600 from 2020, with a target of adding over 1,000 more in the current year [17]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Companies are increasingly focusing on supply chain management to support their overseas operations, as seen with Mixue establishing localized warehousing and distribution networks in four countries [12]. - The shift from merely exporting products to exporting entire ecosystems, such as the complete set of equipment for tunnel construction, marks a significant evolution in export strategies [12]. - The emphasis on strategic planning, brand empowerment, and compliance reflects the growing strength and scale of Henan enterprises in the global market [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, as it is expected to outperform the overall market [46]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index rose by 2.7% while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.1%, highlighting a divergence in performance [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing decline in pig prices, leading to increased losses and a potential acceleration in capacity reduction within the industry [2][3]. - The "Double Eleven" sales event showed strong performance for pet food brands, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this segment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices have continued to decline, with the average selling price for external three yuan pigs at 11.56 yuan/kg, down 2.9% year-on-year [2]. - Losses for self-breeding sows are significant, with a reported loss of 71.95 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 30.89 yuan [2]. - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter will see a lackluster peak season for pig prices, with proactive capacity reduction expected to accelerate [2][3]. Pet Food - Major e-commerce platforms reported strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event, with leading brands achieving high rankings in sales [2]. - The report highlights that domestic pet food brands are experiencing a growth trajectory, despite short-term export challenges due to trade tensions [2]. - Companies such as Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Di Co. are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [2][3]. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks has slightly decreased to an average of 3.35 yuan per chick, while chicken prices remain stable at 3.45 yuan/kg [2]. - The report notes that the supply of white chickens is expected to remain abundant, which may impact pricing dynamics in 2025 [2]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies like Sheng Nong Development for long-term value [2]. Beef Cattle - Prices for beef cattle and calves have seen a slight decline, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.6 yuan/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week [2]. - The wholesale price of beef has increased slightly to 66.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a potential upward trend in beef pricing [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][46]. Core Insights - The Swine price continues to decline, leading to an increase in losses, while the capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. The pressure on fat pig supply remains significant, and the seasonal demand for pigs may not boost prices, potentially undermining industry confidence [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with leading companies achieving significant market share growth. The report suggests focusing on the growth potential of top-tier companies in this sector [2][3]. - The report highlights the stable performance of the white feather broiler chicken market, with slight declines in chick prices but stable chicken meat prices. The overall supply remains abundant, indicating a focus on leading companies for long-term value [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.1%. The top five gainers included Green Kang Bio (27.6%), ST Jiawo (23.2%), and Pingtan Development (22.2%) [2][3][9]. Swine Farming - The report notes a continued decline in swine prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.56 yuan/kg, down 2.9% year-on-year. Losses for self-breeding sows are reported at -71.95 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase in losses [2][3][41]. Pet Food - The report emphasizes the strong sales of domestic pet food brands during the "Double Eleven" event, with major brands like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong leading in sales rankings across various platforms [2][3]. Poultry Farming - The average selling price for white feather broiler chicks is reported at 3.35 yuan per chick, a week-on-week decrease of 2.9%. The average price for white feather broiler meat is stable at 3.45 yuan/kg [2][3]. Beef Cattle - The report indicates a slight decrease in the prices of beef cattle and calves, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.6 yuan/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - In October, the pig farming industry experienced a significant increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, leading to a sharp decline in pork prices due to oversupply and weakened demand [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In October, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 17.2 million pigs, representing a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [1][2]. - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and New Hope reported slaughter increases of 26.97%, 17.07%, and 20.87% respectively [1][2]. - The total number of market pigs slaughtered by these companies was approximately 15.4 million, with a month-on-month increase of 23.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.58% [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The increase in slaughter volume has led to a significant drop in pork prices, with most listed companies reporting a price decline of over 10% month-on-month and over 30% year-on-year [2]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs increased to 126.27 kg, up by 1.09 kg month-on-month, indicating a trend towards heavier pigs being brought to market [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current weak prices for both fattened pigs and piglets, alongside policy-driven factors, suggest that the pig farming industry may initiate a capacity reduction phase [4]. - The price of fattened pigs has fallen below 12 yuan per kg, while weaned piglet prices are around 200 yuan per head, indicating a phase of overall industry losses [4]. - Historical trends suggest that when both fattened and piglet prices are low, the industry is likely to undergo market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, enhancing long-term performance for companies like Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and others [5]. - The recovery in pig inventory is anticipated to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, benefiting companies in the downstream supply chain [5]. - The agricultural sector is showing positive trends with rising grain prices, presenting investment opportunities in large-scale agricultural companies [5].

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef starting in 2025, with prices anticipated to rise until 2027 [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The investment focus is shifting from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading companies in the swine and poultry sectors expected to benefit from improved cash flow and profitability amid industry-wide capacity reductions [2][9] - In the swine sector, the official capacity control is expected to enhance the cash flow of leading enterprises, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [2][9] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see limited supply fluctuations, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] Group 3: Feed Industry Dynamics - The deepening industrialization of livestock farming and clear division of labor in the feed industry are expected to allow leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [2][9][12] Group 4: Pet Industry Growth - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging. The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to show strong growth through 2026 [2][9][12] - Recommendations include leading domestic brands such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., which are positioned to capitalize on the growing market [2][9][12] Group 5: Bulk Agricultural Products Overview - The agricultural products market is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term. Key products include corn, soybeans, and oilseeds, which are projected to see stable supply and price support [3][9] - The domestic corn market is expected to maintain strong bottom support, while soybean imports are anticipated to rise, influencing domestic prices positively [3][9]

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef from 2025 to 2027, supported by both domestic and international market dynamics [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The swine industry is shifting focus from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading firms expected to benefit from improved cash flow due to capacity adjustments [2][9] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are anticipated to be limited, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] - The feed industry is expected to see increased industrialization and specialization, with leading feed companies leveraging technology and service advantages to enhance their competitive edge [2][9] Group 3: Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging [2][9] - The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential similar to the rise of domestic brands in Japan [2][9] - Key recommendations include domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are positioned well in the market [2][9] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities Overview - Agricultural commodities are currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term [3][9] - Corn supply is expected to increase marginally in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains strong due to solid bottom support [3][9] - Soybean imports are anticipated to rise, driven by cost recovery, while oilseed supply is expected to increase moderately, supported by policy measures [3][9]