Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, with a recommendation to focus on strong insurance companies such as New China Life Insurance, China Ping An, China Life Insurance H, and China Taiping [2][17] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector (Shenwan) index increased by 2.27%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.99 percentage points, while the insurance sector saw a significant rise of 5.08% [1][9] - The insurance sector's growth is attributed to several factors, including a reduction in long-term stock holding risk factors, expected strong performance in dividend insurance products, and improved global liquidity due to anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [2][16] - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a valuation correction, with a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.36x, indicating potential for recovery in profitability and valuation [2][19] - The banking sector has underperformed, with a decline of 1.18%, and is currently undervalued with a PB ratio of 0.55x, suggesting room for future valuation improvement [3][20] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance index rose by 5.08%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.80 percentage points, driven by regulatory adjustments that lowered risk factors for long-term stock holdings [1][13] - The sector is expected to benefit from a favorable environment for dividend insurance products, with strong growth anticipated in the coming year [2][16] - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like New China Life Insurance and China Ping An, which are positioned for growth [17] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index increased by 1.14%, with a current PB ratio of 1.36x, indicating a potential mismatch between profitability and valuation [2][19] - Regulatory changes are expected to enhance capital efficiency for leading brokerages, creating opportunities for investment in firms with strong fundamentals [2][18] - Recommended stocks include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and Orient Securities, particularly those involved in mergers or restructuring [19] Banking Sector - The banking sector saw a decline of 1.18%, with a PB ratio of 0.55x, indicating that banks are currently undervalued [3][20] - Concerns about asset quality, particularly related to real estate and local government debt, have affected market perceptions, but there is potential for recovery as regulatory support continues [23][24] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality city commercial banks in economically developed regions, such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank [20][24]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 估值周观察(12月第1期) 韩国股市领涨，A股结构分化 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）海外市场涨多跌少，估值随股价小幅变动。韩国显著领跑；美小幅走高；欧元区分化；香港涨幅居中。 估值随股价小幅变动。韩国综合指数PE扩张3.5x，日经225的PE扩张1.59x，其余主要指数PE变动均低于0.5x。从估值分位数看，标普 500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和道琼斯工业指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.12.1-2025.12.5)，A股核心宽基温和上涨，估值微幅扩张。具体来看，规模上，仅中证100（+1.61%）和上证50 （+1.09%）涨幅超过 ...

非银金融 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《监管态度转向积极，看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 《大国崛起需建设金融强国，券商海 外业务迎发展良机—券商海外业务深 度研究》-2025.11.30 《公募 REITs 试点纳入商业不动产， 险企开门红向好 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 ——行业周报 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 证监会主席吴清表态积极且超预期，保险投资端松绑政策符合预期。券商和保险 行业业务端景气延续，叠加政策端向好和全年相对滞涨，看好非银板块布局机会。 券商：监管表态积极，行业有望进入"政策宽松期"，杠杆上限提升助力 ROE 12 月 6 日证监会主席吴清在中证协第八次会员大会上致辞，表态积极，核心 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the meeting emphasizes the need for the new leadership of the China Securities Association to enhance member recognition, cohesion, and participation to improve collaborative governance and shared effectiveness [1] - The eighth member congress of the China Securities Association elected new leadership, including Zhu Jian as the president and several other industry representatives as executive vice presidents and directors [2] - The newly elected leadership includes prominent figures from various securities firms, indicating a diverse representation within the association [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of the association's role in promoting high-quality development in the capital market through a first-class investment banking and investment institution framework [1] - The election results reflect a strategic move towards strengthening the association's governance structure by involving industry representatives in key positions [2] - The new leadership aims to foster a collaborative environment among members to enhance the overall effectiveness of the association [1][2]

Core Points - The eighth member conference of the China Securities Association was held on December 6, where the new leadership was announced [1] - Zhu Jian from Guotai Junan Securities was appointed as the Executive Director and President [1] - Wu Yunhao from the China Securities Association was appointed as the Executive Director and Vice President [1] Group 1 - The new leadership includes several prominent figures from major securities firms, such as Liu Cheng from CITIC Securities and Lin Chuanhui from GF Securities, who were appointed as Executive Directors and Vice Presidents [1] - Other notable appointments include Liu Jian from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, Zhou Yi from Huatai Securities, Zou Yingguang from CITIC Securities, Huo Da from China Merchants Securities, Zhang Nashan from Guosen Securities, Zeng Shan from Yimeng Co., and Chen Liang from China International Capital Corporation [1] - Supervisory roles were filled by Wang Sheng from Galaxy Securities as Chairman and Su Junliang from Industrial Securities as Vice Chairman [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (970064) closed at 1668.3 points on December 5, with a 1.95% increase and a trading volume of 32.01 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment towards state-owned enterprises [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 43 constituent stocks rise, with Electric Power Investment leading at a 6.96% increase, while 6 stocks declined, with China Merchants Shekou leading the decline at 1.91% [1]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include BOE Technology Group (9.31% weight, 4.26 yuan, 5.19% increase) and Huatai Securities (3.84% weight, 5.19 yuan, 1.96% increase) [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 1.242 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 365 million yuan [3]. - Major stocks like BOE Technology Group had a net inflow of 901 million yuan, while other stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw a net inflow of 205 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of 10 new stocks and the removal of 10 stocks, reflecting changes in market dynamics [4]. - New additions include Zhongmi Holdings (total market value 7.349 billion yuan) and Gujing Gongjiu (total market value 87.906 billion yuan), while removals include Xinyu Media and Yanghe Brewery [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Financial R (HKD) Index (483026) closed at 10,527.47 points, up 1.15%, with a trading volume of 51.949 billion HKD and a turnover rate of 0.43% on December 5 [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 65 constituent stocks rise, with Ruida Futures leading at a 10.01% increase, while 22 stocks declined, with Electric Power Investment and Financing leading at a 3.86% decrease [1] - The top ten constituent stocks by weight include HSBC Holdings (15.53%), China Construction Bank (11.08%), and AIA Group (8.37%) [1] Group 2: Market Capitalization - The total market capitalization of the top ten stocks includes HSBC Holdings at 1,733.079 billion HKD, China Construction Bank at 1,897.727 billion HKD, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 2,050.886 billion HKD [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 1.556 billion HKD, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 488 million HKD, and retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.068 billion HKD [3] - Notable net inflows include Dongfang Wealth at 532 million HKD and Guotai Junan Securities at 132 million HKD, while significant outflows were observed in Guangfa Securities and Changjiang Securities [3]

Core Insights - The financial index (399240) closed at 1590.59 points, up 2.22%, with a trading volume of 38.556 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.29% [1] - Among the index constituents, 27 stocks rose, led by Ruida Futures with a 10.01% increase, while 6 stocks fell, with Qingdao Bank leading the decline at 2.06% [1] Financial Index Performance - The top ten constituents of the financial index include: - Dongfang Fortune: 27.33% weight, latest price 23.31, up 4.11%, market cap 368.392 billion yuan [1] - Ningbo Bank: 8.30% weight, latest price 28.23, down 0.84%, market cap 186.419 billion yuan [1] - Ping An Bank: 8.21% weight, latest price 11.53, up 0.35%, market cap 223.750 billion yuan [1] - Tonghuashun: 6.36% weight, latest price 328.81, up 3.96%, market cap 176.768 billion yuan [1] - Guotai Junan: 5.45% weight, latest price 21.29, up 1.62%, market cap 161.928 billion yuan [1] - Zhinanzhen: 4.50% weight, latest price 130.79, up 7.29%, market cap 79.548 billion yuan [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan: 3.83% weight, latest price 5.19, up 1.96%, market cap 129.957 billion yuan [1] - Guosen Securities: 3.30% weight, latest price 13.12, up 1.63%, market cap 134.372 billion yuan [1] - Suzhou Bank: 2.77% weight, latest price 8.19, down 0.61%, market cap 36.615 billion yuan [1] - First Venture: 2.57% weight, latest price 6.91, up 2.22%, market cap 29.039 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the financial index constituents totaled 2.177 billion yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 1.563 billion yuan [3] - Detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - Dongfang Fortune: 532 million yuan net inflow from main funds, 125 million yuan net outflow from retail [3] - Zhinanzhen: 532 million yuan net inflow from main funds, 392 million yuan net outflow from retail [3] - Guotai Junan: 132 million yuan net inflow from main funds, 868.578 million yuan net outflow from retail [3] - Other notable stocks include Tonghuashun and Ruida Futures, with varying net inflows and outflows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the decline in net interest margin (NIM) is expected to significantly slow down by 2026, suggesting that the current downtrend cycle for NIM may be nearing its end, contrasting sharply with the previous two years of uncertainty in the industry [1]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin Analysis - The current bottom line for major banks' NIM is estimated to be around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating that it is close to the lower limit [2]. - The necessity of maintaining a reasonable NIM is emphasized as a condition for sustaining economic growth and financial stability, considering factors like capital balance and risk pricing mechanisms [2]. - A model predicts that if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by 10 basis points (bps) while deposit rates remain unchanged, the NIM is expected to decline by approximately 5 to 8 bps year-on-year in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy for 2026 is projected to be "reasonably ample and responsive," with an anticipated LPR decrease of about 10 bps and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 bps [4]. - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will likely maintain stability in monetary policy, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, unless economic recovery is hindered [4]. - A projected M2 growth rate of 7.0% to 8.0% indicates a basic currency gap of approximately 2.7 to 3.0 trillion yuan for 2026, with measures such as a 0.5% RRR cut expected to release around 1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality stocks with improving NIM and attractive dividend yields, specifically highlighting Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also suggesting attention to Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for potential excess returns [4]. - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank are also recommended for investment [4].

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