Core Viewpoint - The era of easy profits in the liquor sector is fading for investors in the consumer space, prompting public funds to actively expand their investment boundaries and reconstruct their investment methodologies in response to changing consumer habits and channels [1][2]. Investment Strategy Adjustments - The FuGuo Consumption Upgrade Mixed Fund announced adjustments to its investment scope to better meet investor needs and enhance market competitiveness, incorporating the beauty and personal care sector into its consumption upgrade theme [1][2]. - The fund manager emphasized a focus on emerging consumer sectors, particularly companies with global competitive potential, as evidenced by the fund's increased holdings in stocks like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold [2]. Performance of Emerging Consumer Stocks - Emerging consumer stocks have shown significant growth, with companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold experiencing stock price increases of over 100% this year [3]. - Several funds heavily invested in emerging consumer sectors have seen substantial net asset value increases, with some funds reporting returns exceeding 42% year-to-date [3]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Traditional consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, are underperforming, while new sectors such as pet economy, beauty care, and gold jewelry are thriving [3][4]. - Fund managers are adapting their strategies to align with market changes, focusing on mid-to-high-end domestic brands that are competing with foreign brands in various sectors [4]. Focus on New Consumption Channels - Industry experts highlight the importance of adapting to new consumer behaviors and channels, such as the shift from traditional media to platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, which are reshaping brand engagement [5][6]. - The rise of new product categories, including pet food and functional beverages, is noted as a significant opportunity for growth in the consumer market [5][6]. Technological Innovations and Market Opportunities - The integration of AI technology is driving the emergence of innovative products like AI glasses and smart home devices, creating new growth opportunities in traditional industries [6]. - The rapid growth of "self-care" consumption categories, such as medical aesthetics and pet economy, is also highlighted as a key trend in the consumer market [6].

Summary of Zhongchong Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. focuses on the domestic market strategy and significant expansion of staple food business, which has notably improved profitability. The expected profit for 2025 is approximately 440 million yuan, and it is projected to exceed 550 million yuan in 2026. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next three years is expected to reach around 30% driven by high growth of domestic self-owned brands [2][3][18]. Industry Dynamics - The acceleration of domestic substitution and increased import tariffs have raised the entry barriers for American pet food into the Chinese market, providing opportunities for domestic brands like Zhongchong to capture high-end market shares, especially in the price range of 70-100 yuan per kilogram [2][8]. - The pet food industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the staple food market holding significant importance due to its larger scale and typically higher profit margins compared to snack products. The trend shows that domestic brands are gradually rising, occupying top positions in sales rankings, while foreign brands are losing ground [7][9]. Key Financial Insights - The target stock price for Zhongchong is set at 75 yuan, with a valuation level of 50 times earnings based on the expected profit of 440 million yuan for 2025. The profit is anticipated to exceed 550 million yuan in 2026, indicating substantial room for stock price appreciation compared to industry leader Guaibao Pet Food [4][5]. Market Performance - Zhongchong has made significant strides in online sales, with its leading brand's ranking on Douyin and Taobao rising from outside the top 40 to around 19. The brand's growth rate on Douyin is approaching triple digits, showcasing the success of its online marketing strategies and strong production capabilities [2][10][11]. Research and Development - In 2024, Zhongchong's R&D expenditure is expected to grow at a rate leading the industry. The focus will be on researching animal nutrition components, pathology, and products related to the living habits of local dog and cat breeds. The company is also collecting intestinal flora data from cats and dogs to develop products better suited for the Chinese market [2][13][14]. Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands are currently increasing their rankings through substantial marketing expenditures, but there are concerns regarding their profitability and long-term sustainability. In contrast, Zhongchong not only achieves positive profitability but also invests heavily in R&D, ensuring long-term growth potential [15]. International Expansion - Zhongchong has established a deep presence in the U.S. market, having set up a pet snack factory in 2015 and currently constructing a second factory expected to be operational in the first half of 2026. This expansion is anticipated to significantly boost overseas revenue and profits [5][17][18]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about revenue and profit growth in the coming years, with expectations of increased overseas income following the launch of the second U.S. factory. The domestic market, primarily focused on staple foods, is characterized by large potential, strong customer loyalty, and high profit margins, making revenue growth more certain [18]. Market Sentiment - There are mixed views in the market regarding Zhongchong's future prospects, with some investors skeptical about the stock's high valuation and growth rates in the upcoming quarters. However, the company remains confident in its solid domestic and international strategies, maintaining a recommendation for investment [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, particularly recommending stocks like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope due to their competitive cost structures and potential for excess returns in the pig farming sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 2% week-on-week decline in live pig prices, with a significant year-on-year increase of 37.9% in the output of 20 listed pig companies in April [2]. - The report indicates that the breeding stock of sows has increased, suggesting a potential for normal profitability in pig farming in 2025, despite entering a downward price cycle [2]. - The report emphasizes the historical low valuations of leading pig farming companies, suggesting that they are well-positioned for recovery [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.05% in the week of May 12-16, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [14]. - The agricultural sector ranks 7th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance since the beginning of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 3.54% [14]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Primary Agricultural Products - Corn prices are reported at 2374.90 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.63% [35]. - Soybean prices remain stable at 3927.89 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 10.48% [35]. 2.2 Livestock - The average weight of pigs at slaughter remains stable at 129.71 kg, which is higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The report notes that the output of listed pig companies reached 69.18 million heads in the first four months of 2025, marking a 30.1% year-on-year increase [2]. 3. Company Performance - The report lists the output of major listed pig companies, with Muyuan leading at 30.77 million heads, followed by Wens and New Hope [2]. - The report suggests that the introduction of new products in the pet food sector is driving rapid growth for domestic companies like Zhongchong and Guobao [5]. 4. Global Agricultural Trends - The global corn stock-to-use ratio for 2025/26 is projected to be the lowest since the 2015/16 season, indicating tightening supply conditions [3]. - The report forecasts a decrease in the global soybean stock-to-use ratio, reflecting similar trends in the corn market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in the stock price of Zhongchong Co., Ltd. is attributed to its strong financial performance and growth strategies, particularly in overseas markets and product innovation [1][4]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - The primary growth driver for Zhongchong Co., Ltd. is the structural optimization of its overseas business, with overseas revenue accounting for 68.45% in 2024, significantly contributed by factories in the U.S. and Canada [1]. - The European market has emerged as a major highlight, with explosive order growth in Q3 2024, indicating a "North America steady, Europe incremental" strategy [1]. - The construction of a second factory in the U.S. (planned capacity of 12,000 tons) and a second factory in Cambodia helps mitigate trade friction risks and reduces logistics costs through localized production [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Strategy - The breakthrough in the domestic market is driven by a "high-end + all-channel" strategy, launching new products like "Playful Little Golden Shield 100% Fresh Meat Grain" to capture the high-end market [2]. - The company enhances collaboration between direct sales and distribution channels, employing a "hit products driving traffic + channel deepening" model, which has led to revenue growth and improved gross margins in domestic operations [2]. Group 3: Emerging Concerns - Despite strong performance in proprietary brands, OEM/ODM business still accounts for 58.59% of revenue in 2024, with high customer concentration posing risks [3]. - The gross margin for OEM/ODM (25.2%) is significantly lower than that of proprietary brands (31.3%), making the company vulnerable to fluctuations in overseas demand [3]. - The reliance on OEM models may weaken the innovation drive for proprietary brands, with proprietary brand revenue accounting for less than 40% in 2024, compared to over 80% for competitors like Guai Bao Pet [3]. - Fluctuations in raw material prices remain a concern, as the increase in gross margin to 28.16% in 2024 is primarily due to a decline in chicken prices rather than improved cost control [3]. - The domestic market faces strong competition from brands like Guai Bao Pet and Royal Canin, with Zhongchong Co., Ltd. having lower brand recognition and pricing power in the high-end segment [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The rise in Zhongchong Co., Ltd.'s stock price reflects the golden era of the pet economy and recognition of the company's global layout and product innovation [4]. - However, issues such as reliance on OEM, insufficient brand premium, and the need to balance short-term profits with long-term investments pose risks to sustainable growth [4]. - The company must find a balance between OEM and proprietary brands, short-term profits and long-term investments, as well as scale expansion and refined operations to transition from an "OEM giant" to a "brand leader" in the trillion-dollar pet market [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that pet economy concept stocks are performing strongly against the market trend, with Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reaching a historical high [1] - Tianyuan Pet's stock increased by over 10%, while Lusi Co., Ltd. and Ruipu Bio both rose by over 5% [1] - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that China's pet consumption market has surpassed 300 billion yuan, highlighting the growth potential in comparison to the more mature U.S. pet market [1] Group 2 - The pet consumption in China is still at a relatively low level compared to the U.S., suggesting significant room for growth [1] - The logic of simultaneous increase in both volume and price is clearly defined in the context of the pet economy [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Overall consumer demand remains weak, but there are opportunities in specific segments where product and channel transformations can enhance market share, and brand recognition or performance recovery is expected [8] - The pet food segment shows high potential with strong consumer education barriers, brand loyalty, and significant single product effects [8] - The baby care market is fragmented, with strong brands rapidly increasing market share through cost-effectiveness and popular products, heavily relying on online sales [8] - Domestic second-tier brands in sanitary napkins and toothpaste are gaining market share, utilizing platforms like Douyin for marketing and channel empowerment [8] - The trend of innovative products and brand rejuvenation in the trendy toy sector is accelerating, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus experiencing rapid revenue growth [8] Summary by Sections 1) Product & Channel Transformation - Baiya Co. reported a significant increase in revenue and is expected to see a gradual improvement in its profitability model [9] - Dengkang Oral Care's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a sustainable improvement in profitability [9] - Runben Co. experienced strong revenue growth driven by new product launches, particularly in the sunscreen category [9] - Zhongchong Co. is successfully transforming its brand, with expectations of over 40% growth in its flagship product [9] - Companies in the trendy toy sector are well-positioned to benefit from consumer trends and new product launches [9] 2) High Competitive Barriers - Guibao Pet's revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong brand performance and successful high-end product launches [10] - The overall industry remains vibrant, with companies optimizing their product and channel structures [10] 3) Performance Recovery Expected - Chenguang Co. has underperformed due to a weak consumer environment, but recovery is anticipated if market conditions improve [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its IP product strategy, which is expected to contribute to new growth points [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Overall consumer demand remains weak, but there are opportunities in specific segments where product and channel transformations can enhance market share, and brand recognition or performance recovery is expected [2][8] - The pet food sector shows high potential with strong consumer education barriers, brand loyalty, and significant single product effects [2][8] - The baby care market is fragmented, with leading brands rapidly increasing market share through cost-effectiveness and popular products, heavily relying on online sales [2][8] - Domestic second-tier brands in sanitary napkins and toothpaste are gaining market share, utilizing platforms like Douyin for traffic generation and empowering other platforms and offline markets [2][8] - The trend of innovative products and brand rejuvenation in the trendy toy sector is accelerating, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus experiencing rapid revenue growth [2][8] Summary by Sections 1) Product & Channel Transformation - Baiya Co. reported a significant revenue increase of 39% in Q4 2024 and 30% in Q1 2025, with a strong performance in e-commerce and a positive outlook for its probiotic series [3][9] - Dengkang Oral Care also showed robust growth, with a 39% increase in Q4 2024 and 19% in Q1 2025, benefiting from an optimized product structure and strong online sales [3][9] - Runben Co. experienced a 34% revenue increase in Q4 2024 and 44% in Q1 2025, driven by the rapid launch of new products [4][9] - The trendy toy sector, represented by companies like Blokus and Pop Mart, saw revenue growth of 156% and 278% respectively, indicating a strong market presence [4][9] 2) High Competitive Barriers - Guibao Pet's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in its proprietary brand and successful high-end product launches [10] - The overall industry remains buoyant, with companies optimizing product and channel structures, leading to sustained revenue growth and improved profitability [10] 3) Performance Recovery Expected - Chenguang Co. reported lower-than-expected performance due to a weak consumer environment, but recovery is anticipated if market conditions improve [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its IP product strategy, which is expected to contribute to new growth points [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's self-owned brand development has entered a high-speed growth phase, focusing on the "main food" strategy with frequent new product launches, significantly enhancing profitability. The company is expected to launch 2-3 core products in 2025, focusing on upgrading major products and continuously iterating on staple canned food and baked goods. The overseas production capacity is steadily expanding, with a solid global production layout enhancing risk resistance. The profitability of the US and Canadian factories is strong, and the self-owned brand's overseas business is growing rapidly, opening up future performance growth points. The expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 1.49 and 1.95 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 38X and 29X, making it a key recommendation [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 394 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.89%. In Q4 of 2024, revenue was 1.276 billion yuan, up 23.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 112 million yuan, up 98.2% year-on-year. In Q1 of 2025, revenue reached 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, with a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year [4][8]. Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on the rapid growth of its self-owned brands, with domestic sales expected to grow by over 40% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the "Wanpi" brand. The company is also expanding its overseas production capacity, with a global strategy taking shape across five countries, including China, the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Cambodia. The US and Canadian factories are expected to add significant snack production capacity, ensuring stable growth and enhancing global supply chain resilience [2][8]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 5.124 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 549 million yuan, and further growth is expected in subsequent years, with revenues reaching 6.700 billion yuan and net profits of 714 million yuan by 2026 [14].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 4.465 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was CNY 394 million, with a significant increase of 68.89% [2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached CNY 1.101 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.41% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was CNY 91 million, reflecting a growth of 62.13% [2] Global Operations and Risk Management - The company has established a comprehensive tariff response system, minimizing the impact of tariff adjustments on its business [3] - It is the only Chinese company with pet snack factories in the US and Canada, and has a diversified production capacity across multiple countries [3] - The portion of revenue affected by the recent tariff adjustments is relatively low, as it primarily involves exports to the US, which will be shifted to production in Cambodia [3] - The company’s products are sold in 85 countries across five continents, enhancing its resilience against localized risks [7] Brand Development and Market Strategy - In 2024, the company expanded its self-owned brand business into 9 new countries, increasing its global market coverage to 73 countries [3] - The company emphasizes long-term development and strategic investments in brand building, while optimizing resource allocation for maximum impact [4] - The domestic pet food market is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing concentration towards leading brands, indicating a favorable environment for domestic brands [6] Investor Relations and Returns - The company is committed to providing stable cash dividends to investors, with a proposed cash distribution of CNY 1.50 per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year [9] - The total expected cash dividend for 2024 is CNY 146.94 million, which represents 37.31% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Davis Double Play" phenomenon observed in the leading A-share pet food companies, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. and Guobao Pet, where both profit growth and valuation (P/E ratio) have increased simultaneously since 2024 [1][14]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Valuation - Profit growth for both companies began to accelerate in Q2 2023, with significant growth observed by Q2 2024, leading to a valuation rebound [2]. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 45.7, with a market cap of about 178.34 billion [8][11]. - Guobao Pet has a TTM P/E ratio of 63.92, significantly higher than the industry average of 41.41, reflecting a market premium for its high growth performance [10]. Group 2: EPS and P/E Relationship - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a price increase of approximately 237% over 10 months, while Guobao Pet saw a 160% increase over 9 months, illustrating the appeal of the "Davis Double Play" [11][12]. Group 3: Conditions for Davis Double Play - Not all industries with significant profit increases can achieve simultaneous valuation re-evaluation; key factors include market perceptions of profit sustainability, growth visibility, capital requirements, and industry risks [15]. - The "Davis Double Play" mechanism occurs when both EPS and P/E rise, leading to accelerated stock price increases [16]. Group 4: Industry Comparisons - Industries characterized by cyclical or commodity-driven profits often face valuation declines despite profit increases, as seen in sectors like steel and agriculture [20][22]. - In contrast, growth-oriented industries like pet food benefit from sustained consumer demand and brand penetration, leading to higher valuations [23]. Group 5: Summary Insights - Significant profit increases do not guarantee valuation increases; the market's assessment of profit sustainability and visibility is crucial [30]. - High capital expenditure industries tend to have lower valuations even with profit increases, while low capital requirement sectors can achieve higher valuations [24][25]. - Investor sentiment and thematic investment trends can significantly influence valuation re-evaluations, with sectors like pet food currently attracting sustained interest [27].