证券之星消息，11月13日，新乳业（002946）融资买入1089.44万元，融资偿还1003.52万元，融资净买 入85.92万元，融资余额6518.47万元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计1733.29万元。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-13 | 85.92万 | 6518.47万 | 0.42% | | 2025-11-12 | 1171.88万 | 6432.55万 | 0.42% | | 2025-11-11 | 475.49万 | 5260.67万 | 0.34% | | 2025-11-10 | 287.30万 | 4785.18万 | 0.31% | | 2025-11-07 | -1099.69万 | 4497.88万 | 0.32% | 融券方面，当日融券卖出0.0股，融券偿还4300.0股，融券净买入4300.0股，融券余量2.62万股。 | 交易日 | 融券冷卖出(股) | | 融券会重(股) | 融券余额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 24.29% and a recent decline in the last 20 days [1][2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 8.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year [2][3] Stock Market Activity - As of November 13, New Dairy's stock price was 17.68 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 15.217 billion yuan. The stock experienced a net outflow of 1.091 million yuan in principal funds [1] - The stock has been on the "龙虎榜" (a stock trading list) once this year, with the last appearance on April 10, where it recorded a net purchase of 67.0816 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders for New Dairy was 16,100, a decrease of 1.06% from the previous period, with an average of 52,753 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.07% [2][3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds such as 中欧价值智选混合A and 香港中央结算有限公司, with varying changes in their holdings [3] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, New Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Industry Classification - New Dairy is classified under the food and beverage sector, specifically in the dairy products category, and is associated with concepts such as domestic dairy industry and new retail [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 647 million yuan, reflecting a 27.62% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 226 million yuan, up 27.67% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 236 million yuan, an increase of 21.88% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved by 1.57 percentage points to 7.39%, with a gross margin increase of 0.38 percentage points to 29.47%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.26 percentage points to 20.23% [5]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit margin rose by 1.42 percentage points to 7.78%, while the gross margin slightly decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 28.43%. The expense ratio also decreased by 1.46 percentage points to 19.12% [5]. Strategic Positioning - The company adheres to a strategy of regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation, achieving alpha performance. It focuses on high-end fresh milk and active nutrition products, creating a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [6]. - The high-end product line caters to quality-sensitive consumers, while large-pack products meet cost-performance needs. The company strengthens its direct-to-consumer (DTC) supply chain system as a core competitive advantage [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 18 times [6].

Core Insights - New Dairy Industry reported that as of November 10, 2025, the total number of shareholders is 16,126 [2] Summary by Categories - **Company Information** - New Dairy Industry has a total of 16,126 shareholders as of the specified date [2] - **Investor Communication** - The company responded to investor inquiries on an interactive platform regarding shareholder numbers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a 1.02% increase on November 11, with Huanlejia leading the gains, while the overall market indices, Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, saw declines of 0.39% and 1.03% respectively [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The beverage and dairy sector's notable gain was primarily driven by Huanlejia, which surged by 19.99% to a closing price of 26.23 [1] - Other significant performers included Sanyuan Shares, which rose by 10.05% to 6.02, and Yiming Foods, which increased by 6.10% to 24.18 [1] - The overall trading volume for Huanlejia reached 399,100 shares, contributing to a transaction value of approximately 9.83 billion [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net outflow of 127 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 155 million [2] - Notable individual stock capital flows included Yiming Foods with a net inflow of approximately 55.66 million from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Sanyuan Shares also experienced a net inflow of 15.64 million from institutional investors, indicating strong interest from this segment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, indicating that it has entered a strategic allocation period for quality companies [4][8]. Core Views - Despite the need for patience regarding fundamental improvements, the report highlights significant revenue declines for major liquor companies, with a focus on finding a balance between volume and price [4][8]. - The report emphasizes that long-term investors can start pricing quality companies as the market approaches a predictable bottom [4][8]. - Key recommendations include premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, along with consumer staples like Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Anjuke Food [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.56% last week, with liquor down 0.84%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.64 percentage points [7]. - The top gainers included Anji Food (+13.87%), Huifa Food (+13.07%), and Babi Food (+11.32%) [7]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report notes that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.20 percentage points from November 3 to November 7, 2025 [45]. - Sub-sectors such as food processing and leisure foods outperformed the index, while liquor categories, including white liquor and other alcoholic beverages, lagged behind [45]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - Kweichow Moutai announced a stock buyback plan of between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan and a cash dividend distribution of 30 billion yuan [2][9]. - The report indicates that Moutai's revenue growth slowed to 0.35% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Wuliangye's revenue fell by 53% [9]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 20.22x, with a premium rate of 23%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.93x, with a premium rate of 15% [33].

Group 1: Core Insights - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, has been undergoing adjustments since 2021, with the white liquor sector experiencing significant changes since May 2025, leading to a market sentiment shift [5][7][40] - The white liquor industry is expected to continue its adjustment phase into 2026, with a focus on left-side allocation opportunities as the sector's average dividend yield is around 3.5% and the price-to-earnings ratio is below 20 times [5][40] - The beer industry is shifting towards scenario-based expansion, with a focus on non-consumption channels and cross-category growth as the market matures [5][56][74] Group 2: White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector has faced a negative revenue growth rate of 4.9% in Q2 2025, with a further decline of 18.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant pressure release in the industry [13][19] - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye have reported declining revenues, with Moutai's TTM revenue at 178.6 billion and a growth rate of 8.1%, while Wuliangye's revenue has decreased by 10% from its peak [20][23] - The next high-end liquor brands are also experiencing substantial revenue drops, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye seeing declines of 77% and 36% respectively from their peak revenues [27][32] Group 3: Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector, particularly in beer, is witnessing a slowdown in the high-end market, with companies focusing on expanding their distribution channels and product categories to seek growth [5][56] - The condiment market is facing weak demand in the B-end restaurant sector, while the C-end is showing a clear trend towards health and convenience, with companies like Yihai International focusing on high dividend yields and overseas market expansion [5][80][90] - The dairy sector is seeing a gradual improvement in sales, particularly in low-temperature products, with companies like Yili and New Dairy focusing on enhancing their operational performance [92][94]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 19.02% and recent declines in the short term [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 6, New Dairy's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 16.93 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 14.571 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has risen by 19.02%, but has seen a decline of 0.47% over the last five trading days, 0.88% over the last twenty days, and 0.35% over the last sixty days [1] - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on April 10, where it recorded a net purchase of 67.0816 million CNY [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 8.434 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 623 million CNY, up 31.48% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 676 million CNY in dividends, with 448 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, New Dairy had 16,300 shareholders, a decrease of 1.42% from the previous period, with an average of 52,197 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.44% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds, with the third-largest being 中欧价值智选混合A, holding 7.9837 million shares, an increase of 2.0809 million shares from the previous period [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan and a net profit of 623 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.49% in revenue and 31.48% in net profit [4]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters were 29.47% and 7.39%, respectively, with improvements attributed to enhanced product structure and reduced management expenses [4]. - The low-temperature product category continued to show double-digit growth, while the ambient temperature segment experienced slight declines [6]. - New product launches, particularly in high-end low-temperature categories, contributed significantly to revenue growth [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.908 billion yuan and a net profit of 226 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.42% and 27.67%, respectively [5]. - The company expects revenue growth to improve as demand for ambient milk gradually recovers, with projected revenues of 11.113 billion yuan, 11.853 billion yuan, and 12.858 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 707 million yuan, 862 million yuan, and 1.033 billion yuan, indicating strong growth rates of 31.63%, 21.80%, and 19.84% [7]. Financial Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 27.72 in 2024 to 14.43 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [10]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decline from 64.6% in 2024 to 51.3% in 2027, reflecting improved financial stability [11]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.62 yuan in 2024 to 1.20 yuan in 2027, showcasing strong earnings growth potential [10].