Core Insights - The dairy industry is undergoing a green transformation as ESG principles penetrate the real economy, with significant progress in carbon emission disclosure and reduction practices among leading dairy companies [1][2][4] - Despite improvements, structural contradictions in full value chain carbon reduction remain prominent, particularly in the low coverage of Scope 3 emissions accounting and the lack of technical standards for packaging recycling and supply chain carbon management [1][4] - The challenge of converting high carbon reduction investments into brand premiums amidst fluctuating consumer demand has emerged as a new issue for dairy companies balancing sustainable development with operational efficiency [1][7] Carbon Emission Disclosure - The disclosure of ESG information among listed dairy companies has improved, with 9 H-share listed dairy companies having published ESG or sustainability reports [1][2] - Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu achieved the highest MSCI ESG ratings of AA in 2024, reflecting their progress in ESG practices and information disclosure [2][3] - A total of 11 A-share listed dairy companies disclosed their 2024 ESG reports, with several companies clearly reporting their greenhouse gas emissions [2][3] Carbon Reduction Practices - Notable carbon reduction achievements include New Dairy's "Zero Carbon Dairy" action plan, aiming for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and a 5% annual reduction in carbon intensity [2][3] - Yili has set a target to reduce carbon emissions intensity by 50% by 2030 compared to 2012 levels, achieving this goal ahead of schedule [3][4] - H-share listed companies generally perform better in carbon emission disclosure, with many providing detailed Scope 3 emissions data [3][5] Challenges in Full Value Chain Carbon Reduction - The low disclosure rate of Scope 3 emissions highlights the shortcomings in carbon reduction and accounting across the entire value chain [4][5] - The release of the first low-carbon evaluation technical standard for the dairy industry aims to address monitoring and accounting challenges faced by companies of different sizes [4][5] - Companies like Mengniu and Yili are actively working on comprehensive carbon accounting across their supply chains, with Yili having completed 47.2% of its carbon inventory for core suppliers by the end of 2024 [5][6] Brand Premium and Market Dynamics - The dairy industry faces operational challenges, with many companies experiencing revenue declines in 2024, prompting a need to convert ESG practices into product premiums [6][7] - Yili and Mengniu are integrating ESG achievements into their brand strategies, offering carbon-neutral products to enhance consumer engagement [7][8] - The market is not yet mature enough for consumers to prioritize ESG performance in their purchasing decisions, indicating a need for companies to enhance internal management and operational efficiency to realize long-term value from ESG investments [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance gap between national dairy companies and regional dairy companies is widening, with regional companies facing significant pressure to find new differentiation strategies in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Performance Trends - In 2023-2024, domestic dairy companies experienced a general decline in performance due to market demand and external factors, but signs of recovery were noted in early 2025 [2]. - Leading dairy companies like Yili achieved a revenue of 32.94 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.5%, with a net profit of 4.64 billion yuan, up 24.2% compared to 2024 [2]. - In contrast, regional dairy companies like Tianrun Dairy and Yantang Dairy reported declines in revenue and profits, with Tianrun's revenue dropping by 2.5% to 620 million yuan and a net loss of 73.03 million yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Regional dairy companies are facing increased competition from national players who have expanded into the fresh milk market, which has historically been a differentiating factor for regional firms [3]. - Yili's high-end low-temperature milk revenue grew by over 30% in 2024, while Mengniu's fresh milk brand maintained double-digit growth [3]. - The overall dairy consumption in China is reaching a bottleneck, leading to intensified competition among existing players, particularly affecting regional companies [3][6]. Group 3: Differentiation Strategies - To survive, regional dairy companies must establish new differentiation strategies, as exemplified by New Dairy, which has performed better than its peers by focusing on a 24-hour fresh milk product line [4][5]. - New Dairy's revenue for 2024 was 10.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 540 million yuan, and its 24-hour fresh milk series has seen significant growth [4][5]. - The company has also emphasized direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, achieving 6.23 billion yuan in direct sales revenue, accounting for 58.4% of its total revenue [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The competitive landscape in the dairy market is expected to remain intense in 2025, with increasing market concentration [6]. - Regional dairy companies that fail to find unique brand positioning and product differentiation may face marginalization or even elimination from the market [6].

Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - The dairy industry in China faces pressure from slowing demand, with liquid milk sales slightly declining in 2024. However, the market remains broad, with significant growth potential due to low per capita consumption compared to developed countries [15][17]. - The penetration and coverage rates of low-temperature dairy products are relatively low, indicating substantial room for growth as consumer health awareness increases [14][15]. - The industry is expected to transition towards low-temperature, functional, and scenario-based products over the next decade, with high compound growth rates anticipated for low-temperature fresh milk and functional dairy products [17]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 10.665 billion and a net profit of CNY 538 million, with a sales net profit margin of 5.15%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points year-on-year [18]. - The company aims to enhance its core business and increase enterprise value through the "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on low-temperature fresh milk and low-temperature specialty yogurt as core product categories [12][18]. - The company plans to leverage DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channels as a key growth engine, actively embracing channel transformation and integration [12][16]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Market Development - The company has launched several successful low-temperature products in 2024, such as the "Multi-Dimensional Crystal Ball" yogurt, which has received positive feedback and contributed to over 20% growth for the brand [5]. - The "24-Hour" fresh milk brand, which emphasizes freshness, has been a significant innovation, with products only sold on the day of production, achieving a unique market position [3]. - The company is committed to continuous product innovation and has introduced new products that cater to current consumer trends, such as low sugar and convenient meal options [5][12]. Group 4: E-commerce and Digital Transformation - E-commerce revenue reached CNY 1.161 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.93%, with the company actively expanding its digital marketing efforts, including live streaming [6][7]. - The company has implemented a digital platform for user operations, enhancing customer engagement and retention through improved service delivery [19]. - The integration of digital tools in supply chain management has improved food safety and operational efficiency, showcasing the company's commitment to digital transformation [19]. Group 5: Financial Outlook and Challenges - The company anticipates challenges due to fluctuating raw milk prices, which can impact profit margins. However, it has developed a strategic structure to manage costs effectively [8][11]. - The company is focused on maintaining a stable cash flow and has sufficient bank credit to manage potential liabilities related to convertible bonds maturing in the near future [17]. - The overall goal for 2025 includes achieving revenue growth and improving net profit margins while navigating market challenges and leveraging growth opportunities [12][17].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 10.665 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 2.93% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.8% to 538 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.516 billion yuan, down 9.94% year-on-year, with a net profit of 63.974 million yuan, up 28.08% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% [1] - The company's liquid milk business generated revenue of 9.907 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 0.75%, while other business revenues fell by 34.27% to 758 million yuan [2] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.12 percentage points to 5.04%, and the gross margin improved by 1.49 percentage points to 28.36% [3] - In Q4 2024, the net profit margin rose by 0.75 percentage points to 2.54%, with a gross margin of 25.99% [3] - For Q1 2025, the net profit margin increased by 1.64 percentage points to 5.08%, and the gross margin was 29.5% [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company continues to focus on the "Fresh Cube" strategy, enhancing its fresh product capabilities despite overall weak liquid milk demand [4] - The company is leveraging innovation and digital transformation to drive growth, with expectations of net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a projected PE valuation of 22 and 18 times for 2025 and 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for 2024 is 10.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 538 million yuan, an increase of 24.8% [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, an increase of 48.46% [2][4]. - The company focuses on optimizing product structure and improving profitability, with a notable increase in net profit margin and gross margin in recent quarters [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's liquid milk business revenue was 9.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.75%, while other business revenues decreased by 34.27% [10]. - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.12 percentage points to 5.04%, and the gross margin increased by 1.49 percentage points to 28.36% [10]. - For Q4 2024, the net profit margin was 2.54%, with a gross margin of 25.99% [10]. Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, enhancing its fresh product capabilities despite overall weak demand for liquid milk [10]. - The company is leveraging innovation and digital transformation to drive growth in direct-to-consumer channels [10]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 22 and 18 times [10].

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024 but showed significant growth in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite revenue challenges [2][4]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 10.665 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 538 million, an increase of 24.80% year-on-year [2]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.516 billion, down 9.94% year-on-year, while net profit was 64 million, up 28.08% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.625 billion, a slight increase of 0.42% year-on-year, with net profit rising to 133 million, up 48.46% year-on-year [2]. Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products in 2024 was 9.836 billion, 71 million, and 758 million respectively, with liquid milk showing a growth of 0.83% [3]. - The e-commerce channel saw a significant revenue increase of 31.93% in 2024, contributing 1.161 billion to total revenue [3]. - Regional performance varied, with the Southwest region declining by 6.51%, while the Other region grew by 18.13% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.36%, with Q1 2025 showing a gross margin of 29.50%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.12 percentage points [4]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 5.08%, up 1.64 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. - Management and sales expense ratios showed mixed trends, with sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 at 17.01%, up from Q4 2024 [4].

毛利率有所提升，25Q1 盈利能力进一步增强。毛利率方面，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司毛利率分别为 28.36%/25.99%/29.50%，25Q1 同比+0.12pcts，环比+3.51pcts。主要系原奶价格下滑叠加产品结构优 化，公司毛利率进一步提升。 费用端，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 销售费用率分别为15.56%/14.68%/ 17.01%，25Q1 同比-0.07pcts，环比 +2.33pcts。2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 管理费用率分别为3.57%/1.22%/3.54%，25Q1 同比-1.57pcts，环比 +2.31pcts。综合来看，2024全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司归母净利率分别为5.04%/2.54%/5.08%，25Q1 同比 +1.64pcts，环比+2.53pcts，盈利能力有所增强。子公司中，四川乳业/昆明雪兰/寰美乳业/青岛琴牌2024 年净利润率分别为7.13%/4.60%/6.37%/6.77%，同比-1.21/-0.23/-2.32/+1.35pcts，主要系部分子公司以常 温业务为主，受终端竞争加剧影响，利润端短期承压。25Q1 ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 公司研究 低温业务增势良好，盈利能力持续提升 ——新乳业（002946.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：新乳业发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 全年实现营业收入 106.65 亿元，同比-2.93%；归母净利润 5.38 亿元，同比+24.80%；扣非归母净 利润 5.79 亿元，同比+24.47%。其中，24Q4 单季度实现营业收入 25.16 亿元， 同比-9.94%；归母净利润 0.64 亿元，同比+28.08%；扣非归母净利润 0.72 亿元， 同比-2.25%。25Q1 实现营业收入 26.25 亿元，同比+0.42%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+48.46%；扣非归母净利润 1.41 亿元，同比+40.35%。 低温品类持续向好，电商渠道增长积极。1）分产品看，2024 年液态奶/奶粉/ 其他产品分别实现营收 98.36/0.71/7.58 亿元，同比+0.83%/-9.63%/ -34.27%。 其中低温鲜奶和低温酸奶收入同比实现中高个位数增长，高端鲜奶及低温调制乳 品类收入同比实现双位数增长。公司持续推进新品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined. In terms of size style, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter of 2025Q1 turned significantly positive from negative. In terms of major sectors, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led in 2025Q1, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. In terms of industries, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth [3][19][21]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [3][33]. - Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment. In the cyclical sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Guocheng, Huayou, and Guangda. In the consumer sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as Zhongchongzhuan 2, Xinruzhuan, and Baolong. In the growth sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Weice, Haopeng, Guoli, and Weil [3][7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025Q1 Performance Growth Convertible Bond Recommendations - Among the existing 472 convertible bonds, 372 achieved profitability in the single quarter of 2025Q1. After excluding those with a balance of less than 300 million yuan and a remaining term of less than 1 year, 109 convertible bonds remain. Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment based on factors such as the sustainability of the company's high performance growth and the current price and conversion premium rate of the convertible bonds [6]. - **Cyclical Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds with mineral resource advantages such as Guocheng and Huayou, Guangda with a positive business trend, Dongcai, Dinglong, Anji, and Zhengfan that benefit from the domestic substitution of semiconductor materials, Keli and Bo 23 that benefit from the accelerated development of the robot and AI industries, and Polai that benefits from the recovery of consumer demand and domestic substitution [7]. - **Consumer Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, including Muyuan, Juxing, Wenshi, Xiwangzhuan 2, and Hefeng. Also recommended are Zhongchongzhuan 2, the leading pet food company, Xinruzhuan, the leading regional dairy company, and Baolong, an automobile parts manufacturer [13]. - **Growth Sector**: It is recommended to overweight Weice, the leading domestic third-party integrated circuit testing service provider, Haopeng, a consumer battery manufacturer, Guoli, an electronic vacuum device manufacturer, and Weil, the global CIS leader [15]. 2. All A: Technology and Domestic Demand Lead, Midstream Cycle Warms Up - **Overall A-share Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined [19]. - **Size Style Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter turned significantly positive from negative, while the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of SSE 50 slightly turned negative from positive [20]. - **Sector Performance**: In 2025Q1, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. The revenue growth rate of the growth sector led among all sectors [21][23]. - **Industry Performance**: In 2025Q1, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth. In terms of ROE and other aspects, the ROE levels of most downstream cyclical and consumer sectors declined, the gross profit margins of the optional consumer sector generally declined, and the net profit margins of the midstream cyclical sector generally recovered. The top 30 sub-industries in terms of single-quarter profit growth rate in 2025Q1 were mainly concentrated in the electronics, computer, and media industries [25][28][32]. 3. Convertible Bonds: Narrowing Negative Profit Growth, Declining Revenue Growth Rate - As of May 5, 2025, the existing 472 convertible bonds covered 27 out of 30 CITIC first-level industries, and 92% of the underlying stocks of the convertible bonds had a market value of less than 3 billion yuan. In terms of size style, the issuers of convertible bonds were generally closer to small and medium-cap stocks [33]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [33].

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry is facing challenges with a decline in revenue for the first time in ten years, prompting the need for alternative growth strategies amidst a competitive market environment [1][3][4] Group 1: Revenue and Financial Performance - New Dairy's revenue decreased by 2.93% to 10.665 billion yuan in the last fiscal year, marking the first decline since 2015 [1][3] - The company reported a net increase of 52 distributors in 2024, but revenue from the distribution model fell by 13.29% year-on-year [3] - The Southwest region, which accounts for approximately 36% of New Dairy's revenue, saw a 6.51% decline in income, negatively impacting overall performance [3] Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Positioning - New Dairy launched a new product, "Super Pasteurized Milk," in collaboration with Jingtailan, aiming to capture the low-temperature milk market [1][4] - The company is focusing on high-end products, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt achieving mid-single-digit growth, while high-end fresh milk and low-temperature modified milk saw double-digit growth [3][4] - The "Super Pasteurized Milk" is positioned as a compromise product, offering taste similar to pasteurized milk while retaining better nutritional value than shelf-stable milk [4][5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Strategic Response - The dairy industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, particularly in high-end yogurt sales, due to increased competition and market saturation [4][6] - New Dairy's strategy includes maintaining focus on core product categories, innovating to meet new consumer trends, and enhancing regional market penetration [4][6] - The company is also addressing internal management efficiencies to reduce costs and improve profitability amidst a challenging external environment [6]