Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 3, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5, down 0.85%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. The mine's start - up rate has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The start - up rate of coal washing plants has decreased, while the middle and downstream are replenishing stocks, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend [2]. - On November 3, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5, down 1.17%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation driven by cost. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1,284.50元/吨，环比下跌1.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1,771.50元/吨，环比下跌5.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为954,896.00手，环比减少3,107.00手；J期货合约持仓量为50,255.00手，环比增加377.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 62,214.00手，环比减少5,683.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5,533.00手，环比增加127.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为63.00元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为137.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为500.00张，环比增加500.00张；焦炭仓单为2,070.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1,170.00元/吨，环比无变化；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1,775.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为157.50美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,700.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,670.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,760.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1,520.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1,280.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为235.50元/吨，环比上涨1.50元；J主力合约基差为3.50元/吨，环比上涨60.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.50万吨，环比减少0.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为284.40万吨，环比减少5.20万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比无变化；原煤产量为41,150.50万吨，环比增加2,100.80万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4,600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.30万吨，环比减少0.60万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为513.89万吨，环比增加6.71万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为269.90万吨，环比增加9.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1,052.70万吨，环比增加23.00万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为59.87万吨，环比增加1.23万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为796.32万吨，环比增加13.36万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为629.05万吨，环比减少4.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.96天，环比增加0.19天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.57天，环比增加0.50天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为1,092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为54.00万吨，环比减少1.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为3,696.86万吨，环比减少392.52万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.44%，环比减少0.03% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元；焦炭产量为4,255.60万吨，环比减少4.10万吨 [2]. National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.73%，环比减少3.00%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为88.59%，环比减少1.33% [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2]. Industry News - On October 31, the Yunnan Iron and Steel Industry Anti - Involution Seminar was held in Kunming. Representatives from major steel enterprises in the province attended, emphasizing that anti - involution is the common responsibility of the entire industry and a long - term strategic choice [2]. - The president of the China Animal Husbandry Association stated that high - quality development in the pig breeding industry does not exclude competition. Enterprises must innovate, reduce grain consumption, and control pig production capacity. Government departments need to intervene in the disorderly involution - style competition in the industry [2]. - Since October 1, the US government shutdown has set the second - longest record. Over one million US military soldiers face salary payment problems, and about 42 million people in the US may face food shortages in November. The shutdown may last until late November [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The freight rate market is currently highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended that investors exercise caution, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC2512 closed at 1851.700, down 30.2; EC2602 closed at 1592.2, up 8.5. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 259.50, up 9.10; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 667.30, up 24.40. The EC contract basis was -538.99, down 47.70. The EC main contract open interest was 29320, down 2045 [1]. Spot Market Data - The SCFIS (European Line) was 1208.71, down 104.00 week - on - week; the SCFIS (US West Line) was 1107.32, up 159.83 week - on - week. The SCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1550.70, up 147.24 week - on - week. The CCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1021.39, up 28.65 week - on - week; the CCFI (European Line) was 1323.81, up 30.69 week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index was 1966.00, up 17.00 day - on - day; the Panamax Freight Index was 1821.00, up 28.00 day - on - day. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 23368.00, down 882.00 [1]. Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system", including optimizing the base money supply mechanism, improving the market - oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, etc. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded positively [1]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung - gun to discuss maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain and strengthening regional and multilateral cooperation [1]. Market Analysis - The freight rate support has weakened as the latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index decreased by 104 points week - on - week, a 7.9% decline. However, mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October has boosted market confidence [1]. - The container handling business at the Port of Rotterdam has come to a complete standstill, increasing regional supply chain uncertainties. The positive results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation [1]. - Geopolitically, there are attempts to start cease - fire negotiations, but the external mediation is at a deadlock. The eurozone economy shows resilience, and the German investor confidence index is expected to continue to improve in November [1]. Key Data to Watch - On November 4, the release of the US September trade balance (in billions of dollars) and the US September factory orders month - on - month rate are to be determined [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel market is facing a mix of long - and short - term factors. The mainstream short - position holdings have increased more, and the market is under short - term pressure. The operation strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bearish trend, with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,919,017 lots, up 39,567 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 93,441 lots, down 27,034 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 66 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,640 tons, down 1,200 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,354 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 191 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing is 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of October 31, 20 cities have introduced 26 real - estate market relaxation policies, and more cities may follow to improve and standardize construction design plans and calculation rules. The US Treasury Secretary said that the China - US trade agreement may be signed this week, and China is willing to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US relations [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Economic fundamentals' continuous recovery and the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term rates down. However, the potential upward pressure on long - term rates due to a rise in risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are the main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and ultra - long - term (TL) treasury bond futures respectively. T's closing price rose 0.01% to 108.680, with a trading volume of 65,902 (down 276). TF's closing price fell 0.01% to 106.050, with a trading volume of 52,682 (up 1,537). TS's closing price fell 0.03% to 102.516, with a trading volume of 24,640 (down 6,201). TL's closing price fell 0.11% to 116.510, with a trading volume of 98,827 (down 4,923) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes. For example, the TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.24 (down 0.02), and the T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.83 (up 0.17) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T's main position increased by 1,313 to 243,868. TF's main position increased by 1,862 to 151,286. TS's main position decreased by 1,209 to 71,166. TL's main position decreased by 4,976 to 137,774 [2]. 2. Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed. For example, the net price of 220017.IB (4y) rose 0.0332 to 106.7458, while the net price of 250018.IB (4y) fell 0.0417 to 99.0955 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: Yields of active treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.38%, the 3 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.41%, the 5 - year yield rose 0.75bp to 1.53%, the 7 - year yield fell 0.75bp to 1.63%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1.00bp to 1.7925% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates declined. The overnight silver - pledged repo rate fell 3.99bp to 1.3101%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate fell 6.00bp to 1.4000% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The issuance scale was 783 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 3373 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 2590 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The central bank governor detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system". The finance minister proposed measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including using special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, optimizing income distribution, and dealing with local government debt [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On November 3 at 23:00, the US October ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. On November 5 at 21:15, the US October ADP employment data (in ten thousand people) will be released [3].

Core Viewpoint - As of November 3, 2025, Ruida Futures (002961) closed at 23.07 yuan, down 2.2%, with significant net outflows from major and retail investors, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ruida Futures reported a main revenue of 1.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 386 million yuan, an increase of 42.15% [3]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter main revenue of 575 million yuan, down 13.91%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 158 million yuan, up 17.41% [3]. - The company’s debt ratio stands at 84.6%, with investment income reported at 599 million yuan [3]. Market Position - Ruida Futures has a total market value of 10.267 billion yuan, ranking 15th in the diversified financial industry, which has an average market value of 24.4 billion yuan [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 19.96, significantly lower than the industry average of 229.35, ranking 6th in the industry [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) for Ruida Futures is 12.64%, placing it first in the industry, while the industry average is 3.07% [3]. Investor Sentiment - Over the past 90 days, four institutions have rated Ruida Futures, with three giving a buy rating and one an increase rating, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [4]. - The average target price set by institutions in the last 90 days is 29.88 yuan, suggesting potential upside from the current trading price [4].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of four A-share listed futures companies in the third quarter shows significant divergence, with Ruida Futures leading in net profit growth at 42.15% year-on-year, while the overall industry is experiencing substantial growth in market scale and regulatory improvements [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Ruida Futures reported a total operating revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, with a net profit of 386 million yuan, marking a 42.15% increase [2]. - Yong'an Futures achieved an operating revenue of 8.36 billion yuan, down 55.26% year-on-year, but its net profit rose by 13.31% to 475 million yuan [2]. - Nanhua Futures had an operating revenue of 941 million yuan, a decline of 8.27%, with a net profit of 351 million yuan, down 1.92% [3]. - Hongye Futures reported an operating revenue of 462 million yuan, a significant drop of 76.77%, and a net profit of 209,970 yuan, down 87.27% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [4]. - The total client equity of futures companies was about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The number of effective clients in the market surpassed 2.7 million, a 14% increase year-on-year, with institutional clients growing by 3% and foreign clients by 11% [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Futures Association announced the implementation of the "Futures Market Making Business Management Rules" starting December 1, 2025, which aims to enhance the management and risk prevention of market-making activities [5][6]. - As of September 2023, 38 companies were engaged in market-making for 61 futures varieties, and 33 companies were involved in market-making for 69 options varieties [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors including the completion of the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, relevant government notices, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [7]. - The supply - demand of silicon ferroalloy is in a weak balance, with inventory at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. However, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - It is expected that from November to December, the output of silicon ferroalloy will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the profit of coke is difficult to improve significantly. The alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: On October 25, the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed. On the 28th, the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released, and on the 29th, relevant government notices were issued. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Profit**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, inventory is at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 380 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 360 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the market and winter equipment maintenance, the planned production of a Gansu enterprise in October is postponed to next year. It is expected that the output from November to December will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the position of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 318,600 lots, a decrease of 41,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 66, a decrease of 4 points compared with the previous period. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 4,471, a decrease of 6,692 compared with the previous period. The price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared with the previous period [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The national average daily output of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 16,170 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel types was 20,275.3 tons, an increase of 1.70% compared with the previous week. The national silicon ferroalloy output (weekly supply) was 113,200 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 71,990 tons, an increase of 5,430 tons compared with the previous week [28][34]. - **Upstream Situation**: As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy remained unchanged. As of October 30, the prices of lanthanum coke in Inner Mongolia and Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,682 yuan/ton, a 1.18% increase, and in Ningxia was 5,579 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 409 yuan/ton, unchanged [38][42]. - **Downstream Situation**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared with the previous week. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export of silicon ferroalloy with a silicon content greater than 55% was 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons compared with the same period last year, a 7.25% year - on - year decrease [46].

目录 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.31」 焦炭市场周报 宏观扰动&成本推动，焦企亏损三轮提涨 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1. 宏观方面，工信部就《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，各省（区、市）炼铁、炼钢产能置换比例 均不低于1.5:1；28日，"十五五"规划建议发布，其中提到综合整治"内卷式"竞争，同时，29日盘中，商务部等5部门办公 厅关于印发《城市商业提质行动方案》的通知，通知提到整治"内卷式"竞争，叠加美联储降息、中美领导人会晤，本周市场 预期增强。 2. 海外方面，美联储如期降息25个基点，同时，12月降息概率有所下降；商务部介绍中美经贸磋商成果共识：美方将取消针对中 国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁水产量延续季节性回落，铁水产量236.36，-3.54万吨，焦炭总的库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 01 contract closing at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price was affected by factors such as the harvest of Canadian rapeseed, the expected increase in palm oil supply, and the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price was boosted by the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed harvest is completed with a bumper crop, putting pressure on prices. The expected increase in Indonesian palm oil production and the uncertainty of the B50 biodiesel plan also impact the market. In China, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed will lead to a structural tightening of imports in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The market is also affected by the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term watch [8]. - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The progress of US soybean harvest exerts pressure on prices, but the Sino - US summit has boosted market sentiment. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal will be restricted in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market Price Trends - Rapeseed oil futures continued to decline this week, with a total open interest of 220,738 lots, down 30,322 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and rebounded, with a total open interest of 343,443 lots, down 28,052 lots from last week [15]. Top Twenty Net Positions Changes - The top twenty net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +2,459 this week, compared with +7,916 last week, showing a decrease in net long positions. The top twenty net positions of rapeseed meal futures were - 88,865 this week, compared with - 108,635 last week, showing a decrease in net short positions [21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 7,540 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 2,955 lots [25][28]. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, significantly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil futures and the spot price in Jiangsu was +358 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, slightly higher than last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was +32 yuan/ton [34][40]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +281 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +46 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [48]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio Changes - The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.946, and the average spot price ratio was 4.04 [51]. Rapeseed - Soybean Oil and Rapeseed - Palm Oil Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - soybean oil was 1,294 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed this week. The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - palm oil was 658 yuan/ton, with little change this week [61]. Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 633 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean - rapeseed meal was 490 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 were 65,000 tons, 195,000 tons, and 580,000 tons respectively. As of October 30, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +1,051 yuan/ton. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 0.98%. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 691,600 tons (85.71%) and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [72][76][80][84]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons (1.44%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,200 tons (6.99%) and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons [88]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.95 million tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering were 450.86 billion yuan. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 35,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (8.30%) [92][96]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 8,000 tons, unchanged from last week. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64,700 tons (29.08%) and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons [100][104]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.1287 million tons [108]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of October 31, rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly higher this week. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 22.13%, up 2.8% from 19.33% last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [112].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market had a mixed performance this week. Most major indices rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3%. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was influenced by Sino - US talks, rising at first and then falling back due to the lack of new short - term news [6][14]. - The bond market strengthened this week. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market. The economic fundamentals' recovery and the implementation of loose fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which may also drive long - term interest rates down [6]. - The commodity market is expected to remain volatile. Powell's hawkish stance pushed up the US dollar index, which had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, gold as a safe - haven asset offset some of the decline [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term due to the narrowing of the US - EU interest rate spread, and the Japanese yen is likely to be under pressure in the short term [6][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock Market**: The CSI 300 Index fell 0.43%, while the CSI 300 Stock Index Futures rose 0.10%. The overall A - share market rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3% and other indices rising less than 1%. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger. The market was affected by Sino - US talks, rising from Monday to Wednesday and falling back from Thursday to Friday. The trading volume increased compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6][14]. - **Bond Market**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.18% this week, with a weekly change of - 0.33BP. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.62%. The central bank's operations are expected to inject liquidity, and the market sentiment was boosted. The allocation suggestion is to trade within a range [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.96%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.05%. The market is expected to remain volatile. The allocation suggestion is to mainly stay on the sidelines [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.50%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.53%. The US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term, and the yen is likely to be under pressure. The allocation suggestion is to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [6][12]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Global Trade and Politics**: Sino - US reached a consensus on the trade framework, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment declined. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown, and the tariff on Brazil was "symbolically" vetoed [12][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were significant differences within the Fed on future interest - rate paths. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept their interest rates unchanged [12][17]. - **Domestic Policy**: The central bank's governor said that the moderately loose monetary policy would be implemented in detail, and new policy measures would be studied and reserved [14]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In September, the annual growth rate of industrial enterprise profits above designated size was 21.6%. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 [13][18]. - **US**: In August, the monthly rate of the FHFA house price index was 0.4%, and the annual growth rate of the S&P/CS20 - city non - seasonally adjusted house price index was 1.6%. The Fed cut the upper limit of the interest rate to 4% [18]. - **EU**: The initial annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 1.3%, and the unemployment rate in September was 6.3%. The European Central Bank kept the deposit mechanism interest rate at 2% [12][18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as the manufacturing PMI of France, Germany, the eurozone, and the UK, the PPI monthly rate of the eurozone, the ADP employment data in the US, and the Chinese export and import data in October will be released [82].