Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is under full pressure due to policy - theme catalysts such as the "anti - involution" and Yajiang Water Conservancy Construction. The long - end performs significantly weaker than the short - end. If the relevant details of the "anti - involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of weakening in shock in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and choose the opportunity to allocate after stabilization. The follow - up needs to focus on the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: T主力收盘价为108.395，涨幅0.18%，成交量78985手，减少1580手；TF主力收盘价为105.720，涨幅0.13%，成交量71923手，增加2320手；TS主力收盘价为102.362，涨幅0.04%，成交量43197手，增加128手；TL主力收盘价为118.780，涨幅0.56%，成交量120609手，减少3695手 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: TL2512 - 2509价差为 - 0.29，减少0.05；T2512 - 2509价差为0.01，增加0.01；TF2512 - 2509价差为0.06，增加0.01；T09 - TL09价差为 - 10.39，减少0.62；TF09 - T09价差为 - 2.68，减少0.06；TS09 - T09价差为 - 6.03，减少0.16 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量187839手，增加；T前20名多头持仓201483手，增加3049手；T前20名空头持仓194743手，增加1102手；T前20名净空仓 - 6740手，减少1947手；TF主力持仓量148362手，减少10201手；TF前20名多头持仓165141手，增加4183手；TF前20名空头持仓176706手，增加1546手；TF前20名净空仓11565手，减少2637手；TS主力持仓量101434手，减少2720手；TS前20名多头持仓80831手，增加926手；TS前20名空头持仓90943手，减少2360手；TS前20名净空仓10112手，减少3286手；TL主力持仓量120283手，减少2054手；TL前20名多头持仓126655手，增加3656手；TL前20名空头持仓126589手，增加2682手；TL前20名净空仓 - 66手，增加974手 [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Data - **CTD Net Price**: 220010.IB(6y)净价为107.01，增加0.1917；250007.IB(6y)净价为99.0955，增加0.1373；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.6861，增加0.1006；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.8844，增加0.1181；250006.IB(1.7y)净价为100.2734，增加0.0268；220007.IB(2y)净价为99.939，减少1.8495；210005.IB(17y)净价为134.1967，减少0.0388；210014.IB(18y)净价为130.7414，增加0.1041 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: 1y国债活跃券收益率为1.3775%，下降1.75bp；3y为1.4680%，下降0.20bp；5y为1.5900%，下降1.50bp；7y为1.6850%，下降0.75bp；10y为1.7325%，下降0.75bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: 银质押隔夜利率为1.4110%，下降13.90bp；Shibor隔夜利率为1.4670%，下降5.30bp；银质押7天利率为1.5441%，下降9.59bp；Shibor7天利率为1.5960%，下降2.40bp；银质押14天利率为1.6400%，下降1.00bp；Shibor14天利率为1.6350%，下降9.30bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1y LPR利率为3.00%，无变化；5y LPR利率为3.5%，无变化 [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - 公开市场操作发行规模4958亿、3251亿，到期规模1707亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - 中美商定国务院副总理何立峰7月27日至30日赴瑞士与美方举行经贸会谈，双方将按两国元首6月5日通话共识就经贸问题磋商 [2]. - 6月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降4.3%，降幅较5月收窄，1 - 6月全国规模以上工业企业利润总额34365亿元，同比下降1.8%；1 - 6月黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长13.7倍，采矿业利润同比下降30.3% [2]. - 美国与欧盟达成15%税率关税协议，特朗普称该协议将对多数输美欧洲商品征15%关税，欧盟将增加对美投资6000亿美元，购买美国军事装备和7500亿美元能源产品 [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Follow - 7月28日20:30关注美国7月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 - 7月29日22:00关注美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is expected to face adjustments next week, with prices likely to fluctuate. Although prices are supported by costs and policies, the upside is limited by downstream acceptance. The short - term decline in futures may not lead to a significant drop in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see or consider bearish options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan; the open interest was 136,295 lots, down 18,873 lots. The 8 - 9 month polysilicon spread was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 40,490 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the basis was - 4,525 yuan/ton, up 3,240 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan; the spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons, and the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of solar cells was 67.386 million kilowatts, down 3.183 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units, and the average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The weekly polysilicon price index of the photovoltaic industry was 26.63, up 4.34 [2] Industry News - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year [2] - On the supply side, some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. There is a potential increasing trend in supply. On the demand side, the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has slightly decreased, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials has increased. However, photovoltaic component manufacturers are pressing prices when purchasing polysilicon, and the demand - side support is insufficient [2]

生猪产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14125 | -260 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 61415 | -881 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 284 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -24623 | 809 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14000 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13800 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15500 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -125 | 160 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | | 0.1 | 0.2 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2860 | | | | 玉米现 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,397 | -110↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1481167 | -73396↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -65,607 | -2345↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -12 | -1↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 58362 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 149 | -2↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,480.00 | -50.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,460.00 | -50.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,490.00 | -30.00↓ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,390.00 | -50.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 83.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the domestic economic fundamentals remained under pressure in June, the financial data showed that the effects of the loose monetary policy had begun to emerge, which might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The market had high expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Sino-US trade negotiations this week, and the stock index might continue to rise in the near term. In the long run, the central Huijin's increase in ETF holdings also had a driving effect on guiding long-term funds into the market, injecting confidence into the market, and the stock index also had the potential to rise. The strategy suggested buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of most futures contracts rose, with the IF, IH, and IC contracts increasing, while the IM main contract (2509) decreased. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 4122.0, up 6.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread decreasing by 2.0 to 1325.2 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased to -27,859.00, down 1918.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of major indices rose, including the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 4135.82, up 8.7 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of most futures contracts changed, with the IF main contract basis decreasing to -13.8, down 2.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased to 17,661.50 billion yuan, down 493.01 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased to 19,474.29 billion yuan, up 54.37 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Various indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and implied volatilities showed different trends. The proportion of rising stocks increased to 51.37%, up 4.60% [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The strength of all A - shares increased to 5.80, up 1.10, with improvements in both the technical and capital aspects [2]. Industry News - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2]. - **A - share Financing**: As of July 27, 74 A - share companies had completed private placements this year, raising a total of 659 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Stock Index Performance**: The major A - share indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly [2]. Key Events to Watch - **International Economic Data**: Important economic data and central bank decisions in the US and Canada are scheduled to be released from July 29 to August 1, such as the US June JOLTs job openings on July 29 at 22:00 [3].

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.76%, 0.48%, and 0.53% respectively, while the North Star 50 index surged nearly 40%, reaching a historical high [1] - The domestic futures market was active amid geopolitical changes and increased dollar volatility, with strong performance in precious metals and some non-ferrous metals, while black commodities saw significant declines [1] Asset Management Product Performance - As of June 30, 2025, there were 368 asset management products with performance data, yielding an average return of 2.44% and a median return of 2.03% over the past six months [1] - Among the primary strategies, stock strategy products had the highest average and median returns at 4.96% and 3.58% respectively, outperforming the three major A-share indices during the same period [1] Performance by Strategy Stock Strategy - There were 39 stock strategy products with performance data, with the top three products being "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 2 Index Enhanced" by Guohai Liangshi Futures, "Jinying Xingwen No. 3 Collective" by Jinying Fund, and "Xiangcai Securities Qitai No. 1" by Xiangcai Securities [2][4] Futures and Derivatives Strategy - A total of 104 products were listed under futures and derivatives strategy, with the top three being "Ruida Futures - Ruizhi Wuyou No. 99" by Ruida Futures, "CITIC Jiantou Futures - Quantitative CTA No. 1", and "Xinda Litian No. 3" [7][9] Combination Fund Strategy - There were 104 combination fund products, with the top three being "Zhaoshang Futures - Baoyuan FOF", "Wanjia Gongying Zhongtai Quantitative 30 FOF Active No. 1", and "Penghua Asset - Zhongzheng 500 Index Enhanced FOF" [12][14] Multi-Asset Strategy - The multi-asset strategy saw "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 6" by Guohai Liangshi Futures, "Dayue Futures Haiying No. 1", and "Anliang Futures Tiancai Quantitative" as the top three products [14][18] Bond Strategy - In the bond strategy category, the top three products were "Haitong Futures - Gold No. 1", "Dayue Futures - Xingfeng", and "Shanghai Zhongqi - Convertible Bond Arbitrage No. 1" [20][21]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 菜籽类市场周报 中澳贸易有望恢复 菜油表现弱于豆棕 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 取 更 多 资 讯 Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收跌，09合约收盘价9457元/吨，较前一周-129元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导"阶段。本周加拿大平原地区的炎热天气减少，且 出现有利降雨，对市场带来一定压力。且据路透社7月16日报道，澳大利亚即将与我国达成协议， 允许澳大利亚供应商试验性地向中国运送油菜籽货物，中澳之间的油菜籽贸易有望得到恢复。其 它方面，高频数据显示，7月1-20日马棕产量增加而出口有所下滑，牵制棕榈油价格。不过，印尼 出口大幅增加，且美国和印尼生柴方面消息利多，提振油脂市场。国内方面，油脂消费淡季，国 内植物油供给较为宽松，且菜油油厂库存压力持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The current inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production may restrict price growth. The upper resistance level is at the previous high of 8,140 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, but the large - scale listing of summer fruits impacts demand, and potential production growth may restrict price increases. The upper resistance is at 8,140 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. - **Future Trading Alerts**: Monitor de - stocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week. As of the end of the week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 6,702 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [10][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of July 25, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Supply Side - As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The de - stocking speed was similar to last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 11.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%; in Shaanxi, it was 3.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.98%; in Gansu, it was 2.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92%, and the sales in Gansu were sporadic [26]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Arrival Volume at Wholesale Markets**: As of July 25, the average daily morning arrival of trucks at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin [30]. - **Wholesale Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.89 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%; the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.75 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change [34]. - **Substitutes**: As of July 18, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.32 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14% [38]. - **Export Volume**: In June 2023, China's fresh apple exports totaled 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [41]. 3.3.3. Options Market - No detailed content provided other than the topic of the average implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week [42]. 3.4. Relationship between Futures and Stocks - The report presents the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, but no specific analysis is provided [44].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 玉米类市场周报 拍卖影响预期下滑 期货盘面窄幅震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货窄幅震荡。主力2509合约收盘价为2311元/吨，较前一周+8元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至25年7月20日当周，美国玉米 优良率为74%,符合市场预期，前一周为74%,上年同期为67%。生长初期优良率保持良好，产出前 景较高，国际玉米价格持续承压。国内方面，贸易商经过一轮出粮后库存趋紧，贸易商挺价心态 仍偏重，本周进口粮拍卖成交率略有回升，但实际成交量有限，出库速度不如预期，未能形成大 规模的有效供给。不过，深加工利润承压企业开机率偏低，且饲企库存相对安全，价格续涨动力 相对不足，总体维持窄幅调整。盘面来看，上周低位 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周宏观气氛偏多，胶价继续上移。进口胶市场报盘上涨，贸易商轮换，套利盘加仓， 工厂刚需询盘。期货盘面偏强震荡，现货报盘重心上移，市场观望情绪较浓，下游接货积极性欠 佳，多维持刚需采购。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨影响，胶水较少，收购价格保持坚挺； 海南产区局部存在降水扰动，岛内原料供应季节性增量缓慢，受期现货行情上涨提振，部分加工 厂对原料加价抢收情绪持续升温。近期青岛港口现货总库存呈现去库态势，保税及一般贸易库均 呈现小幅去库，海外货源到港入库较前期明显减少，且胶价上涨推动轮胎企业补库意愿，进而带 动整体出库量大于入库量，青岛港口总库存呈现去库态势。需求方面，个别意外检修企业生产恢 复，带动本周国内轮胎整体产能利用率小幅提升，临近月底，企业整体出货表现不及预期，成品 库存小幅增加， ...