Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the hot-rolled coil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend despite weak demand from the real estate sector and a slight increase in social inventory [1][2] - The hot-rolled coil main contract opened at 3398.00 yuan/ton and reached a high of 3505.00 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.83% [1] - Supply and demand fundamentals show that iron ore and coke prices are weakening, leading to insufficient cost support for hot-rolled coil prices [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption [2] - Weekly production of hot-rolled coil continues to decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.11%, while total inventory has increased by 22,500 tons [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the HC2510 contract's MACD indicator shows downward adjustments, suggesting caution in trading [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3576 | -52 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -37914 | -5551 | | 期货市场 | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | -78 | -32 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 251316 | 11597 | | | 注册仓单 ...

新进展。L2509日度K线关注7300附近支撑。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 季度投产压力仍偏高。下游棚膜需求季节性回升，但多数企业接单仍平淡；日化、食品包装膜需求持续； 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 预计下游开工率拐点于8月上旬到来。成本方面，当前正处美国夏季出行旺季，但OPEC+增产及美国关税政 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 策给到原油价格压力，预计国际油价震荡走势。宏观方面，美欧关税达成协议，后市关注中美关税谈判最 免责声明 塑料产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7335 | -121 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7400 | -104 | | | 5月 ...

机率偏低，且饲企库存相对安全，价格续涨动力相对不足，总体维持窄幅调整。盘面来看，前期下跌后， 近日玉米期价维持低位震荡，短期观望。 | 观点总结（ | 受玉米淀粉企业生产持续亏损影响下，行业开机率继续处于近年同期低位，供应压力明显减弱。不过，民用及造纸市场需求欠佳， | | --- | --- | | | 下游需求也处于传统淡季，供需表现仍然宽松。截至7月23日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量131.1万吨，较上周下降3.50万吨， | | 淀粉） | | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | 周降幅2.60%，月增幅0.15%；年同比增幅19.40%。盘面来看，近日淀粉低位有所反弹，短期暂且观望。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 玉米系产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本方面，当前正处美国夏季出行旺季，但OPEC+增产及美国关税政策给到原油价格压力，预计国际油价震 免责声明 荡走势。宏观方面，美欧关税达成协议，后市关注中美关税谈判最新进展。短期BZ2603预计宽幅震荡。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯苯产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6251 | -136 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6296 | -30 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment driven by previous policies has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day, with V2509 dropping 2.68% to close at 5,149 yuan/ton [3]. - In the supply side, last week's PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.80% week - on - week. With the completion of most domestic PVC maintenance in July, and some restarting and continuous shutdown of certain plants next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly, and the new capacity load is gradually increasing, intensifying future supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, it is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, with only rigid procurement. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand transmission [3]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply of calcium carbide will exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; the ethylene fundamentals change little, and the price may fluctuate slightly [3]. - From a macro perspective, the EU - US tariff agreement has been reached, and the latest progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations should be monitored. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support around 5,100 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan; the trading volume was 2,133,221 lots, an increase of 269,370 lots; the open interest was 818,506 lots, a decrease of 41,811 lots [3]. - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 744,296 lots, a decrease of 6,830 lots; the short positions were 758,920 lots, an increase of 11,247 lots; the net long positions were - 14,624 lots, a decrease of 18,077 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,173.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.69 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.88 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC was - 213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,581.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.79%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 70.27%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 42.7 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons; the inventory in East China was 37.82 tons, an increase of 1.41 tons; the inventory in South China was 4.88 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6 (with 2012 as the base year of 100), a decrease of 0.12 [3]. - The cumulative completed area of real estate construction was 633,321.43 million square meters; the cumulative new construction area was 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 30,364.32 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.52%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.62%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 27.93%, an increase of 6.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 27.91%, an increase of 6.23 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 60 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 5,070 to 5,150 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [3]. - As of July 24th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 68.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.23% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain largely unchanged, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 106,213 lots, down 251 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,439 lots, down 1,861 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 59,959 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, up 6,175 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 24.27 dollars/ton, up 0.94 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,200 tons, down 2,900 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, up 23.22 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan Industry Index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,760.4 points, down 11.52 points. The monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles; the monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU: imposing a 15% tariff on the EU, with 600 billion dollars of EU investment in the US, the EU implementing a 0% tariff on the US, and the EU buying US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products. However, the US and the EU have different statements on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers pharmaceuticals and steel and aluminum. Trump is considering reaching agreements with three or four other countries. The US Commerce Secretary said the August 1 tariff increase deadline will not be extended, and the US will determine the tariff policy on chips within two weeks. US officials said Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. This week is a super central bank week, and the result of the Fed's interest - rate meeting should be noted [2] 3.7 Demand and Supply Analysis - Primary lead smelters' operating rates decreased due to the decline in lead prices, leading to a decline in output. Although the current primary lead operating rate is still stronger than that of recycled lead and its by - product revenue is stable, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. The resumption of production is slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual spot trading is average, and downstream buyers are still waiting and watching. The slow destocking of distributors restrains the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. Domestic inventory is rising slightly, and the increase in warehouse receipts reflects the slowdown in overall demand [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1100.50 | -158.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1608.50 | -154.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 770883.00 | -151239.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 52357.00 | -2371.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -86983.00 | -45768.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5324.00 | +1338.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 79.50 | +20.00↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 42.00 | -6.00↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 104 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1502.800 | -28.1↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1737.8 | | +7.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -235.00 | -42.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -38.20 | | -46.90↓ | | EC合约基差 813.76 -59.24↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 50694 717↑ | | | | | | 2316.56 SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线） ...