1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high inventory of urea enterprises exerts significant pressure on the urea market. The short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract is a price fluctuation between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. As the urea price drops below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers' enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, and they are advised to buy on dips. However, due to the weak market trading atmosphere and slow urea shipment, the probability of a further decrease in production is high, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1609 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 312,167 lots, down 10,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 40,924 lots, up 2,398 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,057 lots, down 181 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, down 5.02 percentage points; the daily output is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 137 tons, up 57 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 24.18%, down 1.32 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 55.18%, down 10.29 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 65.15 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 tons, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week, a 11.88% increase. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week, a 7.47% increase. The production of Chinese urea enterprises was 132.05 tons, down 6.97 tons, a 5.01% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25 percentage points [2].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2946 | 176 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -26221 | -6458 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -170 | 11 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 248893 | 87834 | | | 注册仓单 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is under pressure due to theoretical near - month出栏 pressure from newborn piglets and the inventory of breeding sows, along with large - scale farms' active sales to meet their targets. The second - fattening activity has supported the spot market price, especially in the north, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The terminal demand is expected to improve with the drop in temperature, but currently, the sales of pork carcasses are slow and demand is below expectations. The live pig futures main contract 2601 has rebounded, but the rebound space is limited due to the uncertain second - fattening and continuous supply pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 103,162 lots, up 607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 111 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,936 lots, down 1,420 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 11,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is - 535 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads. The CPI's year - on - year change is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,259.41 yuan/ton, down 3.34 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 880.17, up 1.25. The monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 375.29 yuan/head, down 74.25 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 244.7 yuan/head, down 92.55 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - On October 21, 2025, the daily national live pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 326,524 heads, up 4.43% from the previous day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster than supply and inventory depletion in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 150,100 hands, up 5 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 310,199 hands, up 171,765 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 29,892 hands/ton, down 813 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 880 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,520 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,723 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 85,000 yuan/ton, up 35,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, up 15,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 135,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 59%, up 2%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.09%, up 0.55%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 1.758 million vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 18.69%, down 1.17%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 32.46%, down 0.85% [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 103,607 contracts, up 9,728 contracts; the total put position is 38,261 contracts, up 2,829 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 36.93%, down 0.8132%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.31%, down 0.0002% [2]. Industry News - In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. As of the end of September, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. In September, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The current external environment is more complex and severe, and the task of stabilizing growth in the industry remains arduous [2].

Core Insights - The diversified financial sector experienced a 1.8% increase on October 21, with Ruida Futures leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Market Performance - Ruida Futures (002961) saw a closing price of 22.48, with a significant increase of 9.98% and a trading volume of 181,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 401 million yuan [1] - Nanhua Futures (603093) closed at 20.97, up 3.81%, with a trading volume of 156,400 shares [1] - Yuexiu Capital (000987) closed at 8.41, up 3.57%, with a trading volume of 881,100 shares [1] - Other notable performers included Electric Current Communication (600830) at 68.6 (+2.70%) and Jiuding Investment (600053) at 17.07 (+2.52%) [1] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net inflow of 292 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 169 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 460 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Ruida Futures had a net inflow of 113 million yuan from institutional investors, but faced outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3] - Yuexiu Capital experienced a net inflow of 68.89 million yuan from institutional investors, with outflows from speculative and retail investors [3] - Zhongyou Capital (000617) had a net inflow of 67.33 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 68.17 million yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the JM2601 contract closed at 1177.0, down 3.49%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The mine operating rate and coal washery operating rate rebounded. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and inventory is expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 21, the J2601 contract closed at 1672.0, down 2.743%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The iron - water output was in high - level oscillation, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1177.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1672.00 yuan/ton, down 38.00. JM期货合约持仓量 was 828825.00 hands, down 22315.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 47556.00 hands, down 1245.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 3800.00 hands, up 346.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 73.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 200.00, unchanged; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 2050.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian 5 raw coal was 1051.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported primary coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur primary coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal from Inner Mongolia Wuhai was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washeries was 26.10 million tons per day, up 0.40; the refined coal inventory was 290.40 million tons per week, up 10.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.36%, up 0.01 [2]. - The monthly raw coal output was 41151.00 million tons, up 2101.30; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 196.10 million tons, up 12.20 [2]. Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 997.37 million tons per week, up 38.31; the total inventory of coke was 57.29 million tons per week, down 6.55. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 million tons per week, up 7.19; the coke inventory was 639.44 million tons per week, down 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.90 days per week, up 0.24; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.19 days per week, down 0.23. The monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4256.00 million tons, down 3.70; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.25%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of crude steel was 7349.00 million tons, down 387.86 [2]. Industry News - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In September, the housing prices in 70 cities declined month - on - month, with all second - hand housing prices falling and 63 new housing prices falling. The decline in new housing prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, except for Beijing [2]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In September, the total import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector continues to rise, with securities, insurance, and diversified financials leading the gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these industries [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The securities sector has shown significant growth, with Tianfeng Securities increasing by over 7% [1] - Other companies in the financial sector, such as Changjiang Securities, China Life Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance, also experienced upward movement [1] Group 2: Notable Stocks - Ruida Futures and Luxin Venture Capital reached their daily limit up, reflecting strong investor interest [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 21 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2138 | | 2380 | 6 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -7 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -112 | 吨) | -30 | -20 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 30648 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 800344 | | 53048 | -10702 | | | -9115 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -47627 | | -52803 | -3788 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 12615 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 49324 | 手) | 12756 | -50 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) -7 | 319 | | | | | | 期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market has been under pressure and in a callback trend due to the cooling of the tariff situation, with the market's risk aversion sentiment declining and risk appetite improving [2]. - The sharp correction in the precious metals market since last Friday may be driven by both fundamental and technical factors. The monthly RSI indicates that gold and silver prices are in an overbought range, and the market's expectation of Trump's tariff implementation has decreased, leading to a decline in the safe - haven premium [2]. - Fed officials maintain a dovish stance, and the probability of interest rate cuts in October and December is over 90%, which may provide some support for gold prices [2]. - Looking ahead, tariff developments will still affect gold price fluctuations. The U.S. government shutdown is expected to continue, and this Friday's CPI data will be crucial. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate this week, with short - term correction pressure remaining. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 930 - 990 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11000 - 12000 yuan/kg [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 970.32 yuan/gram, down 29.48 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11742 yuan/kg, down 507 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 207916 lots, down 14276 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 432663 lots, down 38499 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 117407 lots, down 13605 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 99705 lots, up 4292 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 84606 kg, unchanged; that of silver is 855850 kg, down 64253 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 975.5 yuan/gram, down 21.79 yuan; the silver spot price is 11834 yuan/kg, down 365 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 5.18 yuan/gram, up 7.69 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 92 yuan/kg, up 142 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1047.21 tons, up 12.59 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15497.4 tons, up 74.79 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 24.14%, up 1.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 32.85%. The 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 18.9%, up 1.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 32.85%, up 0.82% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in an interview, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing some tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - On the morning of October 18, Chinese and U.S. economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2]. - Trump signed an executive order on October 17 to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts from November 1, and a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of styrene is expected to decline slightly due to the expanded impact of previously shut - down plants, with no new maintenance or restarting plants this week [2]. - There is a mismatch in the production schedules between upstream and downstream, which may deepen the supply - demand contradiction as 1.2 million tons of styrene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in October, while the downstream EPS, PS, ABS production capacity is concentrated from November to December [2]. - The terminal demand is weak, and the growth space of styrene demand may be limited due to high inventory and low profit in some downstream sectors [2]. - The cost of non - integrated styrene has decreased, and the loss has deepened. The cost support is gradually strengthening as the profit of integrated plants is low [2]. - Although the supply - demand situation of styrene is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and there is an expectation of positive macro - policies in late October, so the downward space in the future may be limited [2]. - Technically, the short - term downward trend of EB2511 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the RSI indicators show the price is in the oversold range [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract is 453,930, and the closing price of the November contract is 6,365 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 9,570 hands to 263,109 hands [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 35,433 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB South Korea intermediate price is 793 US dollars/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices in different regions have declined to varying degrees, such as the Northeast region at 803 yuan/ton, the South China region at 6,610 yuan/ton, and the North China region at 6,515 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of ethylene and pure benzene in different regions have declined, such as the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene at 781 US dollars/ton, and the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf at 655 US cents/gallon [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the national inventory decreased by 443 tons to 193,420 tons [2]. - The inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons, and the trade inventory increased by 0.51 million tons to 12.15 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products such as EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber have changed to varying degrees, with the operating rate of EPS at 21.79% and that of ABS at 73.1% [2]. Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, styrene production decreased by 2.33% to 339,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88% [2]. - The downstream operating rate of styrene mainly increased, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, ABS increased by 13.93% to 273,200 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the factory inventory of styrene decreased by 0.23% to 193,400 tons, and the East China port inventory decreased by 2.67% to 196,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 11.59% to 30,500 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 7,128 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 588 yuan/ton [2].