烃行业开工将有所提高。MA2509合约短线预计在2450-2500区间波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2480 | 69 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | 16 51952 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 632187 | -34449 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -89760 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10134 | -50 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2400 | 10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2037.5 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 362.5 | -37.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -11 | 56 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 276 | -3 CFR东南亚(日, ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-07-24 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 2318 80 | -3 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 6 玉米淀粉月间价差(9-11):(日,元/吨) | 2669 72 | -6 10 | | | | | 吨) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | | -27978 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | | | | 期 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-24 续下滑，下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光 伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。本周依旧交易预期为主，纯碱玻璃基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是 免责声明 政策预期,今日玻璃也出现涨停，但是整体冲高回落，今日顺利突破60日线，但是受到短期消息影响为主， 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 继续观察突破有效性，建议暂时观望 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1408 | 70 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1307 | 96 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macroscopically, Fed Chair Powell is facing challenges. A potential resignation could cause financial market turmoil, while Fed rate - cuts would benefit the non - ferrous sector. - On the supply side, the开工 rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to falling lead prices. The supply of recycled lead is tight because of the limited supply of waste batteries. If the supply of waste batteries remains tight, the overall lead supply increment will be restricted. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season, but the actual spot trading is mediocre. The slow inventory reduction of dealers suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not appeared yet. - In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. - The lead price remained in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the operation suggestion is to go long at low prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation was 2,028.5 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars. - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 106,464 lots, up 4,398 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 749 lots, up 1,883 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,259 tons, up 200 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, up 650 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract was - 190 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.21 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The import volume of lead concentrate was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the output of new - energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 0.073 million. [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump criticized Powell again, saying that the FOMC should take action, and "The Fed Whisperer" thought it impossible. - Bessent said they were not in a hurry to nominate a new Fed chair, and Trump would not fire Powell. - US House Speaker Johnson was "disappointed" with Powell, and the legal compliance of firing the Fed chair was unclear. [3]

| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1785 | 12 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -11 | -5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 173791 | -7009 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -30835 | 5007 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1830 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 57 | 34 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for rapeseed meal experienced a sharp decline, dropping to a low of 2661.00 yuan, with a current price of 2682.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.61% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, rapeseed meal prices have retreated from high levels due to increased supply from imported soybeans and high operating rates of oil mills, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - Dayue Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range due to low inventory levels of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal [4] - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for rapeseed meal, which could positively influence futures prices despite competitive pricing pressures from soybean meal [5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to rise with the onset of the aquaculture peak season, although the competitive advantage of soybean meal may weaken the demand outlook for rapeseed meal [3] - The market is closely monitoring the uncertainties surrounding China-U.S. trade negotiations, which could impact future pricing dynamics [3] - The seasonal consumption of aquaculture feed is strong, but the price competitiveness of rapeseed meal remains a concern, especially with the anticipated arrival of Brazilian soybeans [5] Group 3: Price Projections - Dayue Futures projects that rapeseed meal prices will oscillate between 2680 and 2740 yuan in the short term [4] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests that support levels for rapeseed meal prices are between 2620 and 2650 yuan, with resistance levels at 2850 to 2855 yuan [5]

目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 7月24日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘绿。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1140.5元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦煤主力最高触及1197.0元，下方探低1115.5元，涨幅达7.48%附近。 瑞达期货（002961）表示，宏观面，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋在7月18日国新办新闻发布会上表 示，钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，工业和信息化部将推动重 点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，宏观预期较强。基本面，矿端库存总体保持下降，市场信 心好转，下游拿货意愿转好，精煤库存继续从上游矿山及洗煤厂向下游用煤企业转移，进口累计增速下 降，总库存中性偏高。技术方面，4小时周期K线位于20和60均线上方，操作上，震荡偏多对待，请投 资者注意风险控制。 国信期货分析称，基本面来看，产地部分煤矿因井下原因产量受限，另有部分限停产煤矿复产，上周调 研反馈煤矿开工率周环比小幅下滑，国内供应有所收缩。进口方面，那达慕会结束中蒙口岸恢复通关， 口岸库存去化，现货成交好转，蒙煤报价上调。需 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 oscillated downward, closing at 6,196 yuan/ton. - The production capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 78.05%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.51% week - on - week to 64.46%. - The downstream operating rates of pure benzene varied last week, and the weighted downstream operating rate changed little. - The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased by 4.21% week - on - week to 171,000 tons. - The total production of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene is expected to decline slightly due to maintenance, and the volume of imported vessels is expected to increase. The spot supply of pure benzene may remain loose. - Some downstream shutdown devices will restart, and new downstream devices are planned to be put into production this month, so the demand is expected to increase. - Although there is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand of pure benzene, the supply still exceeds the demand overall, and the spot valuation is expected to remain low. - The short - term international oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in the US - EU tariff negotiation and OPEC+ output policy in September. - Pay attention to the support near 6,100 and the resistance near 6,300 on the daily K - line of BZ2603 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Main contract closing price of pure benzene (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,196 | - 82 | | Main contract settlement price of pure benzene (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,222 | - 16 | | Main contract trading volume of pure benzene (daily, lots) | 14,798 | - 5,696 | | Main contract open interest of pure benzene (daily, lots) | 12,060 | - 1,625 | | Market price of pure benzene in East China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,020 | 0 | | Market price of pure benzene in North China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,860 | 0 | [2] Spot Market | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Market price of pure benzene in South China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,950 | 0 | | Market price of pure benzene in Northeast China (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,865 | 15 | | Market price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,025 | 75 | | Market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shanxi (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,700 | 25 | | Spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (daily, US dollars/ton) | 735 | 4 | | Spot price of pure benzene in China (CFR, daily, US dollars/ton) | 750.5 | 4 | [2] Upstream Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Spot price of Brent DTD crude oil (daily, US dollars/barrel) | 69.77 | - 0.98 | | CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) | 566.38 | - 6.5 | [2] Industry Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Capacity utilization rate of pure benzene (weekly, %) | 78.14 | 0.13 | | Weekly output of pure benzene (weekly, 10,000 tons) | 43.52 | 0.35 | | Terminal inventory of pure benzene in ports (weekly, 10,000 tons) | 16.4 | - 1 | | Production cost of pure benzene (weekly, yuan/ton) | 5,327.8 | - 118.2 | | Production profit of pure benzene (weekly, yuan/ton) | 737 | 76 | [2] Downstream Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Operating rate of styrene (weekly, %) | 78.3 | - 0.91 | | Capacity utilization rate of caprolactam (weekly, %) | 95.72 | 6.41 | | Capacity utilization rate of phenol (weekly, %) | 78.54 | - 0.46 | | Capacity utilization rate of aniline (weekly, %) | 69.24 | - 0.1 | | Capacity utilization rate of adipic acid (weekly, %) | 64.3 | 2 | [2] Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 6 yuan/ton week - on - week to 590 yuan/ton. - As of July 21st, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 171,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.21% [2].

塑料产业日报 2025-07-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | -80 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7346 | -70 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7346 | -74 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | -80 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 313961 | -70212 持仓量(日,手) | 388381 | -5767 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 0 | 4 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 341150 | -12098 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 383471 | 4109 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -42321 | -16207 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7286.52 | 43.91 LLDPE(704 ...

国债期货日报 2025/7/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.520 | -0.11% T主力成交量 | 115034 | 3580↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.790 | -0.09% TF主力成交量 | 87176 | 2731↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.380 | -0.03% TS主力成交量 | 46570 | 1732↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 119.270 | -0.21% TL主力成交量 | 154682 | 2262↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.17 | +0.03↑ T09-TL09价差 | -10.75 | 0.06↑ | | | T2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | +0.02↑ TF09-T09价差 | -2.73 | 0.02↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | +0.00↑ TS09-T09价差 | -6.14 ...