Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is -80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is $3,269/ton, up $58; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 234,796 lots, an increase of 11,768 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,706 lots, an increase of 5,429 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 111,500 tons (daily), a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,680 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is -45 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread is -$32.62/ton, up $4.04 [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), a decrease of 53,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons (weekly), an increase of 5,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.71% (daily), an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75% (daily), an increase of 0.03 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In January, the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high [3]. - The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Trump demanded full military liberalization in Greenland and claimed the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland [3]. - The first tri - party talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine since the Russia - Ukraine conflict were held in the UAE. Zelensky and the US presidential envoy said the talks were "constructive", with progress on military issues but no consensus on territorial issues [3]. View Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other sectors brings some bright spots [3]. - Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventory has decreased, LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained low [3]. - Technically, the open interest has increased and the price has rebounded, with a warming of the bullish sentiment [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA10, with an expected range between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 425,340 yuan/ton, down 4,230 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract is up 450 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 56,605 US dollars/ton, up 4,728 US dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 55,233 lots, down 1,021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4,973 lots, up 1,468 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,195 tons, up 40 tons. The SHFE tin inventory is 9,720 tons, up 171 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 8,624 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 434,850 yuan/ton, up 14,550 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 437,200 yuan/ton, up 13,460 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 18,780 yuan. The LME tin (0 - 3) spread is - 245 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrates is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 420,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 424,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan. The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 274,330 yuan/ton, up 8,900 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, both the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high. The EU announced a 6 - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the US. There are disputes over Greenland, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks were held in the UAE, with some progress on military issues and no consensus on territorial issues [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in Q1. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. Smelting: Most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production is still limited, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. Import: Indonesia's exports increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. The recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have corrected, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a long - upper - shadow negative line with increasing volume and decreasing positions, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment [3].

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11465 | -100 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 133394 | 1981 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 433 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -47718 | 2182 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 ...

1月26日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，玻璃期货主力合约报收于1087.00元/吨，涨幅达 2.45%。 供应方面，光大期货指出，本周玻璃供应水平稳定，周内行业在产日熔量维持在15.07万吨。春节前产 线冷修计划前期基本兑现完毕，下周行业存在一条900吨日熔量产线复产点火计划，玻璃供支撑将有所 下降。 库存方面，据新湖期货介绍，上周浮法玻璃厂库库存整体持平，小幅累库；区域上：华北及华中累库， 华东及华南小幅去库；当前多以厂库库存向中游环节转移为主。 对于后市走势，国投安信期货表示，库存窄幅上涨，后续面临下游放假，或有累库压力。目前三种燃料 产线均亏损，近期产能波动不大。加工订单延续低迷态势，南方订单好于北方。下游临近放假，玻璃或 将迎来季节性累库，但目前估值偏低，或跟随宏观情绪波动，关注后续产能变动情况。 需求端看，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，作为玻璃核心需求领域的房地产市场持续低迷，商品房成交面 积徘徊于三年同期低位，房屋新开工、施工面积均处负增长区间。临近春节，下游加工企业陆续放假， 家装与工程订单基本停滞，本周浮法玻璃产销率已呈现回落态势。4月1日出口退税取消政策落地前，光 伏组件"抢出口"带 ...

菜籽油期货主力涨超4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 南华期货 菜油仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势 瑞达期货 菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 1月26日盘中，菜籽油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9356.00元。截止发稿，菜籽油主力 合约报9345.00元，涨幅4.08%。 加菜籽新作产量同比大幅增长，全球菜籽供应宽松，美国生物燃料政策提振加菜籽。市场对最终开放加 拿大菜籽进口持乐观态度，目前市场传言已出现加菜籽买船，但现货层面前期澳籽并未开始压榨，菜油 仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势，后续仍需关注政策动向。 瑞达期货（002961）：菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。不过，加拿大总理卡尼访问期间与中国签 署了《中国-加拿大经贸合作路线图》，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽市场。其它方面，美国 生柴消息利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月前二十日出口明显增加。另 外，印尼撤销28家公司许可证，涉及棕榈油种植园，引发对印棕供应的担忧。国内方面，现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 762.85 yuan, closing at 734.15 yuan, reflecting an 8.13% rise [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Jin Yuan Futures highlights the attention on the rebound of platinum and palladium prices due to geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand and countries accelerating de-dollarization by significantly increasing gold holdings [2] - The volatility in silver has led to a 40% increase within a month, with the COMEX gold-silver ratio dropping to 48, the lowest in nearly 50 years, indicating strong performance in precious metals [2] - The current geopolitical instability is expected to keep precious metal prices strong in the short term, with platinum/gold and palladium/gold ratios still at low levels, suggesting potential for a rebound in platinum and palladium prices [2] Group 2: Demand Factors - Ruida Futures notes that platinum shows more resilience compared to palladium, especially after the EU postponed the internal combustion engine ban and strengthened automotive emissions standards, leading to increased platinum loading intensity [2] - The automotive catalyst's demand for platinum is expected to add approximately 450,000 ounces this year, despite a mild adjustment in global passenger car sales due to recession concerns [2] - The rise in penetration rates for hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium to long-term demand curve for platinum, supported by the IEA's latest hydrogen outlook predicting a cumulative installation of PEM electrolyzers to exceed 17 GW by 2030 [2] Group 3: Supply and Price Dynamics - The uncertainty surrounding South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with new automotive emission policies, is expected to make platinum more resilient compared to palladium [2] - The differentiated supply-demand dynamics may continue to drive a "strong platinum, weak palladium" market trend [2] - Price levels to watch include resistance at $2,900/oz for platinum and support at $2,700/oz, while palladium has resistance at $2,100/oz and support at $1,900/oz [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the insurance sector, indicating a strong continuity in market performance despite recent fluctuations [2][12][16]. Core Insights - The financial sector experienced a mixed performance this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.45%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points. The insurance sector saw a decline of 4.02%, while the brokerage sector decreased by 0.61% [1][10]. - The insurance sector's performance is driven by two main factors: policy support leading to economic recovery and liquidity easing combined with a strong stock market. The report suggests a shift from liquidity-driven growth to a focus on macro policy support and economic recovery expectations [2][13][16]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from new regulations that enhance investment management quality, with a recommendation to focus on larger, undervalued firms and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [3][18]. - The banking sector is facing a slight decline, but there are signs of recovery in profitability for leading banks, with recommendations to focus on banks with high dividend yields and those expected to benefit from market conditions [19][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's recent decline is attributed to short-term market sentiment and liquidity changes, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong support from both the liability and asset sides [2][12][16]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, with a specific recommendation for New China Life [4][16]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's performance is slightly better than the overall market, with a focus on the new guidelines from the regulatory body that aim to improve fund management quality [3][17]. - Recommended firms include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, particularly those with strong merger and acquisition prospects [4][18]. Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown a decline but is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on banks with high earnings elasticity and strong dividend yields [19][21]. - Specific banks to watch include Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and others, with a focus on those that have previously been undervalued [4][21].

公告显示，2025年前三季度，申港证券实现营业收入15.14亿元，实现净利润3.42亿元；截至2025年9月30日，申港证券净资产为58.26亿元，与2024年末相 比，增长3.78%；截至2025年9月30日，申港证券资产总额为152.89亿元，与2024年末相比，下降1.35%。 瑞达期货表示，为实现成为具有国际竞争力的衍生品投行的发展战略，积极寻找管理规范、优势互补且经营良好的证券公司，通过股权收购的方式，有效整 合证券公司与期货公司的业务资源，充分发挥协同效应，满足不同类别客户多元化的需求，为客户提供全方位的风险管理、财富管理等综合金融服务，进一 步提高该公司的综合竞争力。 1月20日，瑞达期货发布公告称，拟以自有资金5.89亿元购买申港证券股份有限公司（以下简称"申港证券"）合计11.9351%的股权，其中8.1112%的股权处于 质押状态。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 菜籽类市场周报 中加贸易缓和升温 继续拖累菜系市场 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 菜油： Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡微跌，05合约收盘价8991元/吨，较前一周-72元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。不过，加拿大总理卡尼 访问期间与中国签署了《中国-加拿大经贸合作路线图》，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽 市场。其它方面，美国生柴消息利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月 前二十日出口明显增加。另外，印尼撤销28家公司许可证，涉及棕榈油种植园，引发对印棕供应 的担忧。国内方面，现阶段油厂继续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑， 菜油基差维持高位。不过，中加贸易缓和预期升温，且路透社消息称中国已采购6万吨加拿 ...