白糖产业日报 2026-01-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) 14 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 5158 | 477452 | 16093 -6833 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) -665 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | 13756 | -77893 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 0 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ -58 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 50 | | | | 现货市场 | | 4026 | 4052 | -58 -75 | | 吨) | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 -76 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | | 5099 | 5134 | | | /吨) | /吨) 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) -35 广西南宁白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5160 | 5260 | -1 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 786.50 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 566,469 | -8780↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -14751 | -3102↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,300.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.55 | +0.36↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 846 | +2↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 841 | 0.00 | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 751 | 0.00 I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 55 | -3↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 103.20 | -0. ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 最新 24,055.00 | 环比 数据指标 -100.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 2,717.00 | 环比 +45.00↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -110.00 | +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -123.00 | -6.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 337,960.00 | -5263.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 489,138.00 | +2713.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 28,800.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 217,143.00 | +21062.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 3,115.00 -44,665.00 | +7.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） +3182.00↑ 沪伦比值 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, Treasury bond spot yields increased collectively. The 1 - 7Y maturity yields rose by about 0.25 - 0.75bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields increased by about 0.65bp and 0.10bp to 1.84% and 2.26% respectively. Treasury bond futures weakened slightly, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.05%, and 0.07% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.51%. [4] - In 2025 Q4, China's GDP grew by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. December's financial data exceeded expectations, but the growth rate of social financing continued to decline, mainly dragged down by government bonds. Credit increased slightly less than expected, with marginal improvement in medium - and long - term corporate financing demand, but the trend of household deleveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. In December, China's import and export scale hit a monthly high, with annual exports growing by 6.1% and the structure continuously optimizing, especially high - tech product exports growing by 13.2%. [4] - Overseas, concerns about the US labor market eased. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped to a recent low, dashing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January. [4] - As some negative factors eased, bond market sentiment has recovered. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading cooled the equity market, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. In 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive growth trend, but there were still structural contradictions. With the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins and the weakening of internal and external constraints, the central bank indicated that there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The issuance of interest - bearing bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about long - term bond supply pressure. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.05%, 0.04%, 0.02%, and 0.07% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased by 26,132, 5,611, and 38,868 respectively, while the trading volume of TS main contract increased by 930. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread decreased by 0.01, the T2603 - 2606 spread increased by 0.02, etc. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The T main contract's open interest increased by 1,012, the TF and TS main contracts' open interest decreased by 250 and 398 respectively, and the TL main contract's open interest decreased by 120. The net short positions of T and TF top 20 increased by 2,574 and 193 respectively, while the net short positions of TS and TL top 20 decreased by 181 and 1,179 respectively. [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Data - **CTD Net Price**: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 240022.IB (2y) which increased by 0.0090. [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y and 3y active bonds increased by 7.75bp and 0.25bp respectively, the 5y yield remained unchanged, and the 7y and 10y yields decreased by 0.65bp and 0.20bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates increased, such as the overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 7.01bp, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 9.10bp. The Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 0.70bp. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operation - The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 210.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 179.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase. The net investment was 30.9 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that this year, the focus in urban renewal is to promote the renovation of old urban residential areas, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of small public spaces in cities. The government will also stabilize the real estate market by implementing the project company system in real - estate development, the lead - bank system in real - estate financing, and the spot - sale system in commercial housing sales. [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment update funds in 2026 has been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects in multiple fields and driving a total investment of over 460 billion yuan. [3] - The Trump administration and NATO reached a "framework agreement" on Greenland. Denmark will transfer the sovereignty of a small piece of land on Greenland to the US for military base construction. US President Trump said that based on the meeting with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte, they reached an agreement on the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the entire Arctic region, and he will not implement the tariff measures originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. [3] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - At 20:30 on January 22, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the December 2025 monetary policy meeting. At 21:30 on January 22, the US will release the November 2025 PCE price index. [4]

| | | 预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存增长趋势，市场逢 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 回调采买为主，现货升水高位；海外LME库存延续增长。技术面，持仓高位价格震荡，多空分歧较大，预 计宽幅调整为主。观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整，关注MA10争夺，区间14-14.8。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪镍产业日报 2026-01-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 142500 | -560 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -240 | -130 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17975 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a volatile adjustment, with the price expected to be in the range of 24,200 - 24,700 yuan/ton. Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some bright spots in the automotive sector due to policy support. Downstream purchasers mainly buy on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventories have decreased, LME zinc inventories are stable, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, positions have decreased, prices have adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,175 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 218,500 lots, down 117 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,533 lots, up 1,407 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are 76,311 tons, up 2,459 tons; LME inventories are 111,850 tons, down 450 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 40.12 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production value is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. Social zinc inventories are 1.122 million tons, up 58,000 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.25%, down 2.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.26%, down 2.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.51%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.74%, up 0.02 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and will not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being. Canadian Prime Minister Carney gave a speech saying that the rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from some major powers. Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas. The European Parliament announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump said he may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]

1月20日晚，瑞达期货（002961.SZ）发布对外投资购买股权的公告，宣布公司拟以自有资金58857万元 购买申港证券合计11.9351%的股权，对应股份为5.15亿股；其中8.1112%的股权处于质押状态。 值得注意的是，期货公司跨界收购券商在业内较为罕见。业内分析称，对瑞达期货而言，此次收购或有 助于其补足券商牌照，同时，可更好地利用申港证券与其现有业务资源强化财富管理协同，提升综合金 融服务能力。 拟收购股权中部分处于质押状态 分析：瑞达期货或将补足券商牌照 根据公告，1月20日，瑞达期货董事会战略委员会审议通过《关于对外投资购买股权的议案》。 公开资料显示，申港证券成立于2016年，是国内首家根据CEPA协议设立的合资多牌照证券公司，也是 金融对外开放的典型案例之一。由3家香港持牌金融机构、11家国内机构投资者共同发起设立，其中港 资股东持股比例合计为29.32%。 业绩方面，根据公告，申港证券2024年营业收入为19.19亿元，净利润3.71亿元。2025年三季度，申港证 券未经审计的营业收入达15.14亿元，净利润3.42亿元，期末净资产为58.26亿元，总资产为152.89亿元。 而申港证券的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ruida Futures plans to acquire a total of 11.9351% equity in Shengan Securities for 588.57 million yuan, which may help the company obtain a brokerage license and enhance its comprehensive financial service capabilities [2][5][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves purchasing 8.1112% of shares from the second-largest shareholder, Yucheng Global Market Limited, and 3.8239% from the eighth-largest shareholder, Jiatai New Capital Management Co., Ltd [5][6]. - A deposit of 40 million yuan will be provided as a guarantee for the purchase obligations after the agreement is signed [5]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is seen as a way for Ruida Futures to fill the gap in brokerage licenses and strengthen wealth management collaboration, thereby improving its overall financial service capabilities [4][6]. - The transaction may allow Ruida Futures to leverage Shengan Securities' existing business resources and expand its futures brokerage business through Shengan's network [7]. Group 3: Shengan Securities Overview - Shengan Securities, established in 2016, is a joint venture with a 29.32% stake held by Hong Kong investors and has faced regulatory scrutiny multiple times since last year [8][9]. - In 2024, Shengan Securities reported revenues of 1.919 billion yuan and a net profit of 371 million yuan, with total assets of 15.289 billion yuan [8]. - The company has been under regulatory pressure for compliance issues, including deficiencies in business audits and customer suitability management [9][10].

Group 1 - Zhongshan Securities reported a significant decline in net profit by 88.14% in 2025, with revenue dropping by 29.12% to 550 million yuan, primarily due to a substantial decrease in core income from investment banking fees, asset management fees, and investment income [1] - The company is involved in a legal dispute with a total claim amounting to 489 million yuan, which includes 350 million yuan in principal and 139 million yuan in funds occupation fees, raising concerns about its financial stability [1] - The performance downturn of Zhongshan Securities may trigger market concerns regarding the stability of similar small and medium-sized brokerage firms, potentially impacting their stock performance [2] Group 2 - Ruida Futures announced a significant investment plan to acquire 11.9351% of Shengan Securities for 589 million yuan, aiming to integrate futures and securities businesses to enhance comprehensive financial services [3] - The acquisition price is approximately 1.14 yuan per share, and the target company, Shengan Securities, has shown continuous growth in recent years but faces compliance challenges as it prepares for an IPO [3] - This move reflects Ruida Futures' commitment to transforming into a competitive derivatives investment bank, emphasizing the importance of resource integration and risk management in the financial sector [2][3] Group 3 - CICC's research indicates that the ETF market has ample growth potential, although the growth rate may continue to slow this year, with an increasing share in the overall public fund market [4] - The report highlights the rising importance of institutional funds for asset management firms, suggesting that fund managers need to focus more on attracting institutional capital [4] - While industry-themed products may remain a short-term focus, their long-term driving force for ETF market development is expected to weaken, indicating structural opportunities in the market [4]

1月20日晩间，瑞达期货发布公告称，公司拟以自有资金5.89亿元购买申港证券合计约11.94%的股权。 在业内人士看来，瑞达期货此次拟收购申港证券股权，是期货行业反向参股券商的"破冰之举"。 据了解，申港证券于2016年3月14日获中国证监会批复设立，同年10月正式开业，是国内首家根据CEPA 协议设立的合资多牌照证券公司。股权结构方面，申港证券由3家香港持牌金融机构、11家内地机构投 资者共同发起设立，其中港资股东持股比例合计为29.32%。2025年前三季度，申港证券实现营业收入 15.14亿元（未经审计，下同），实现净利润3.42亿元；截至2025年9月30日，申港证券净资产为58.26亿 元，资产总额为152.89亿元。 瑞达期货在公告中也表示，为实现成为具有国际竞争力的衍生品投行的发展战略，公司积极寻找管理规 范、优势互补且经营良好的证券公司，通过股权收购的方式，有效整合证券公司与期货公司的业务资 源，充分发挥协同效应，满足不同类别客户多元化的需求，为客户提供全方位的风险管理、财富管理等 综合金融服务，进一步提高公司的综合竞争力。 长期以来，我国"期证合作"基本是"券商控股期货公司"的单一路径，目的 ...