| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1785 | 12 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -11 | -5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 173791 | -7009 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -30835 | 5007 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1830 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 57 | 34 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for rapeseed meal experienced a sharp decline, dropping to a low of 2661.00 yuan, with a current price of 2682.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.61% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, rapeseed meal prices have retreated from high levels due to increased supply from imported soybeans and high operating rates of oil mills, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - Dayue Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range due to low inventory levels of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal [4] - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for rapeseed meal, which could positively influence futures prices despite competitive pricing pressures from soybean meal [5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to rise with the onset of the aquaculture peak season, although the competitive advantage of soybean meal may weaken the demand outlook for rapeseed meal [3] - The market is closely monitoring the uncertainties surrounding China-U.S. trade negotiations, which could impact future pricing dynamics [3] - The seasonal consumption of aquaculture feed is strong, but the price competitiveness of rapeseed meal remains a concern, especially with the anticipated arrival of Brazilian soybeans [5] Group 3: Price Projections - Dayue Futures projects that rapeseed meal prices will oscillate between 2680 and 2740 yuan in the short term [4] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests that support levels for rapeseed meal prices are between 2620 and 2650 yuan, with resistance levels at 2850 to 2855 yuan [5]

目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 7月24日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘绿。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1140.5元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦煤主力最高触及1197.0元，下方探低1115.5元，涨幅达7.48%附近。 瑞达期货（002961）表示，宏观面，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋在7月18日国新办新闻发布会上表 示，钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，工业和信息化部将推动重 点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，宏观预期较强。基本面，矿端库存总体保持下降，市场信 心好转，下游拿货意愿转好，精煤库存继续从上游矿山及洗煤厂向下游用煤企业转移，进口累计增速下 降，总库存中性偏高。技术方面，4小时周期K线位于20和60均线上方，操作上，震荡偏多对待，请投 资者注意风险控制。 国信期货分析称，基本面来看，产地部分煤矿因井下原因产量受限，另有部分限停产煤矿复产，上周调 研反馈煤矿开工率周环比小幅下滑，国内供应有所收缩。进口方面，那达慕会结束中蒙口岸恢复通关， 口岸库存去化，现货成交好转，蒙煤报价上调。需 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 oscillated downward, closing at 6,196 yuan/ton. - The production capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 78.05%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.51% week - on - week to 64.46%. - The downstream operating rates of pure benzene varied last week, and the weighted downstream operating rate changed little. - The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased by 4.21% week - on - week to 171,000 tons. - The total production of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene is expected to decline slightly due to maintenance, and the volume of imported vessels is expected to increase. The spot supply of pure benzene may remain loose. - Some downstream shutdown devices will restart, and new downstream devices are planned to be put into production this month, so the demand is expected to increase. - Although there is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand of pure benzene, the supply still exceeds the demand overall, and the spot valuation is expected to remain low. - The short - term international oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in the US - EU tariff negotiation and OPEC+ output policy in September. - Pay attention to the support near 6,100 and the resistance near 6,300 on the daily K - line of BZ2603 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Main contract closing price of pure benzene (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,196 | - 82 | | Main contract settlement price of pure benzene (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,222 | - 16 | | Main contract trading volume of pure benzene (daily, lots) | 14,798 | - 5,696 | | Main contract open interest of pure benzene (daily, lots) | 12,060 | - 1,625 | | Market price of pure benzene in East China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,020 | 0 | | Market price of pure benzene in North China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,860 | 0 | [2] Spot Market | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Market price of pure benzene in South China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,950 | 0 | | Market price of pure benzene in Northeast China (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,865 | 15 | | Market price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,025 | 75 | | Market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shanxi (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,700 | 25 | | Spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (daily, US dollars/ton) | 735 | 4 | | Spot price of pure benzene in China (CFR, daily, US dollars/ton) | 750.5 | 4 | [2] Upstream Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Spot price of Brent DTD crude oil (daily, US dollars/barrel) | 69.77 | - 0.98 | | CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) | 566.38 | - 6.5 | [2] Industry Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Capacity utilization rate of pure benzene (weekly, %) | 78.14 | 0.13 | | Weekly output of pure benzene (weekly, 10,000 tons) | 43.52 | 0.35 | | Terminal inventory of pure benzene in ports (weekly, 10,000 tons) | 16.4 | - 1 | | Production cost of pure benzene (weekly, yuan/ton) | 5,327.8 | - 118.2 | | Production profit of pure benzene (weekly, yuan/ton) | 737 | 76 | [2] Downstream Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Operating rate of styrene (weekly, %) | 78.3 | - 0.91 | | Capacity utilization rate of caprolactam (weekly, %) | 95.72 | 6.41 | | Capacity utilization rate of phenol (weekly, %) | 78.54 | - 0.46 | | Capacity utilization rate of aniline (weekly, %) | 69.24 | - 0.1 | | Capacity utilization rate of adipic acid (weekly, %) | 64.3 | 2 | [2] Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 6 yuan/ton week - on - week to 590 yuan/ton. - As of July 21st, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 171,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.21% [2].

塑料产业日报 2025-07-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | -80 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7346 | -70 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7346 | -74 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | -80 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 313961 | -70212 持仓量(日,手) | 388381 | -5767 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 0 | 4 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 341150 | -12098 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 383471 | 4109 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -42321 | -16207 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7286.52 | 43.91 LLDPE(704 ...

国债期货日报 2025/7/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.520 | -0.11% T主力成交量 | 115034 | 3580↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.790 | -0.09% TF主力成交量 | 87176 | 2731↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.380 | -0.03% TS主力成交量 | 46570 | 1732↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 119.270 | -0.21% TL主力成交量 | 154682 | 2262↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.17 | +0.03↑ T09-TL09价差 | -10.75 | 0.06↑ | | | T2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | +0.02↑ TF09-T09价差 | -2.73 | 0.02↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | +0.00↑ TS09-T09价差 | -6.14 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - SH2509 is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend, with the daily operating range estimated to be around 2570 - 2700. The supply - side policy利好 sentiment in the earlier stage has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The alumina operating capacity in China remains at a high level, and the amount of alkali sent to the main downstream by alkali plants has increased. The off - season demand of non - aluminum downstream is weak, mainly for rigid demand, and some enterprises resist high prices. The utilization rate of production capacity is expected to maintain an upward trend, but the limited receiving capacity of the liquid chlorine downstream may drag down the profit of chlor - alkali and limit the upward space of the operating rate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2644 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the futures trading volume is 752433 lots, down 277186 lots; the futures holding volume is 189077 lots, down 19374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 7630 lots, up 4809 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2655 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2723 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda is - 50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 637 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 225 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3215 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. From July 11th to 17th, the average utilization rate of production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, up 2.2% week - on - week. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), up 2.56% week - on - week and 1.78% year - on - year [1] Industry News - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity last week increased by 2.2% to 82.6%. The alumina operating rate increased by 0.33% to 83.61%, and the average profit of alumina was 360.7 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 383,900 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement [2]. - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, but some areas in Xinjiang are at high risk of heat damage due to high - temperature weather. - The previous continuous rise in cotton futures prices has digested the bullish factor of tight supply. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, and the market is lackluster. Currently, it shows an adjustment trend. It is necessary to continuously monitor weather and macro factors. It is recommended to take profits and exit long positions opportunistically [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the main contract of cotton yarn closed at 20,350 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 35,705 lots, down 306 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 447 lots, down 182 lots [2]. - The main - contract trading volume of cotton was 538,200 lots, down 15,967 lots; the main - contract trading volume of cotton yarn was 13,848 lots, down 1,269 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 9,382, down 54; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 96, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,728 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,438 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 23,955 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit from imported cotton was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 628,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the monthly inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 109 million meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 114,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 58.3566 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.02%, down 0.55%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.59%, down 0.44% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, compared with 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year [2]. - On Tuesday, the December ICE cotton contract rose 0.25%, the cotton 2509 contract rose 0.04%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 0.2%. Due to the upward revision of the US cotton crop rating and the forecast of rainfall in production areas, the US cotton futures price was under pressure. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is still showing a slowdown trend. Today, industrial silicon prices rose and then fell, mainly because the downstream cannot absorb the high spot prices. Currently, industrial silicon inventory remains at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,525 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 380,961 lots, down 2,335 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 68,472 lots, down 18,540 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,053 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was - 25 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 475 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 1,040 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production was 305,200 tons per month, up 5,500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons per week, up 10,000 tons; industrial silicon imports were 2,211.36 tons per month, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon exports were 52,919.65 tons per month, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal production in key coal - producing provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. On the supply side of industrial silicon, the spot price has risen significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. The production cost in the Southwest has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is active, but it has not met expectations in Nujiang and Dehong. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants for production, with no obvious increase in the overall operating rate [2] 3.7 Key Focus - There is no news today [2]