证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求强劲，价格弹性可期，开启新周期 --电动车2026年年度策略 首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199798 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 备注：全文的"预计"如果没有特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所电新组预测 1 摘要： 2 ◆ 26年国内预计销量同增15%，欧洲销量持续高增，全球有望14%增长，考虑带电量提升，预计动力电池维持20%增长。25年国内 汽车消费政策持续+购置税退坡前抢装+出口强劲，全年预期30%增长至1676万辆，26年购置税退坡，预计Q1需求短期承压，且 我们预计26年"两会后"以旧换新补贴续力释放，有望托底26年销量，叠加重卡+出口强势高增，预计2026年新能源车销量1925 万辆，同增15%。欧洲补贴退坡消化完毕，叠加25H2起新车周期，预计全年34%增长至394万辆，26年英国、意大利等市场政策 加码，叠加新车刺激，预计维持30%增长。美国不确定性增加，短期需求放缓，新车型延期，预计25年销量增速放缓至4% ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a new growth cycle for energy storage, projecting significant increases in installed capacity and demand in both domestic and international markets [2][5][32] - Domestic energy storage demand is driven by capacity pricing and innovative business models, with a projected installed capacity of 163 GWh in 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase, and 265 GWh in 2026, a 60% increase [2][32] - Internationally, the U.S. is experiencing a surge in demand due to AI data centers, while Europe and emerging markets are also showing strong growth potential [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, the introduction of capacity pricing subsidies by local governments has significantly boosted the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage projects, with IRR rates ranging from 6% to 12% [2][13] - The report notes that from January to November 2025, domestic energy storage bidding reached 190 GWh, a 138% increase year-on-year, with a total of 175 GWh awarded [2][27] - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic energy storage reached 72 GWh from January to October 2025, marking a 42% increase year-on-year [2][27] Group 3: International Market Trends - The U.S. is expected to see a demand for approximately 53 GWh of new energy storage installations in 2025, driven by AI data centers and peak load shortages [2][34] - In Europe, the energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected installation of 20 GWh in 2025, a 131% increase year-on-year, and 42 GWh in 2026, a 109% increase [2][34] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Australia, Southeast Asia, and South America, are anticipated to contribute to a combined installation of 34 GWh in 2025, a 220% increase year-on-year [2][34] Group 4: Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The global demand for energy storage batteries is projected to reach 628 GWh in 2025, a 91% increase, and 663 GWh in 2026, a 61% increase [2][6] - The report indicates that leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as Tesla and BYD, are expected to strengthen their market positions as battery prices stabilize and production capacity increases [2][6] - The integration of large battery cells is expected to reduce system costs by 10-15%, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading firms [2][6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends strong investment in large-scale energy storage companies, including Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and BYD, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the market [2][6] - It also highlights the potential for growth in residential and commercial energy storage sectors, suggesting companies like DeYe and Airo Energy as promising investment opportunities [2][6]

11 月新能源汽车表现强劲，动力电池产销同环比保持增长 [Table_Industry] 动力锂电 动力锂电《碳酸锂迎来上涨，钠电产业加速落 地》2025.11.20 动力锂电《电动重卡市场驶入增长快车道》 2025.10.22 动力锂电《再读固态电池投资机会》2025.09.11 动力锂电《再读固态电池投资机会》2025.08.29 动力锂电《固态电池正负极&集流体发展方向》 2025.08.26 股 票 研 究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 牟俊宇(分析师) | 0755-23976610 | moujunyu@gtht.com | S0880521080003 | | 余玫翰(分析师) | 021-23185617 | yumeihan@gtht.com | S0880525040090 | | 李依雯(研究助理) | 021-231 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Lithium Battery Golden Tripod Award Ceremony will be held on December 18-19, 2025, in Shenzhen, focusing on "New Cycle, New Technology, New Ecology" with discussions on over 35 hot topics in the lithium battery sector [2][3]. Group 1: Event Details - The conference will include five major sessions that will deeply explore core topics such as lithium batteries, materials, equipment, commercial energy storage, portable storage, household storage, and AIDC storage batteries [2]. - The event will feature a range of distinguished speakers, including industry leaders from companies like New Energy Safety, EVE Energy, and Blue King New Energy, who will present on various topics related to the future of lithium batteries and energy storage technologies [3][4]. Group 2: Keynote Speakers and Topics - Notable speakers include Dr. Guo Chuntai, Chairman of Blue King New Energy, who will deliver a keynote address, and other industry experts discussing advancements in battery technology and market trends [4][5]. - Specific topics of discussion will include the restructuring of household storage technology, the future development trends of small power lithium batteries, and innovations in high-voltage electrolyte solutions [4][5]. Group 3: Awards and Recognition - The 2025 Lithium Battery Golden Tripod Award will recognize outstanding contributions in the industry, with several companies already nominated, including New Energy Safety, EVE Energy, and others [5]. - The award aims to highlight innovations and advancements in lithium battery technology and applications, showcasing the industry's growth and evolution over the past decade [5]. Group 4: Supporting Organizations - Numerous organizations are supporting the event, including China CRRC, Anker Innovations, and EcoFlow, indicating strong industry backing and collaboration [6]. - The event is expected to foster networking opportunities and discussions on the future of energy storage and lithium battery technologies [6].

Group 1: Lithium Thionyl Chloride Battery Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, announced optimized import and export regulations for lithium thionyl chloride batteries, effective January 1, 2026, allowing batteries with a filling content of less than 1 kg to be exempt from certain approval processes [2] - The lithium thionyl chloride battery is characterized by high energy density and long storage life, with energy density reaching 590 W·h/kg and 1100 Wh/L, making it suitable for applications in smart instruments, medical devices, and scientific instruments [2] - China's lithium thionyl chloride battery industry has developed a complete supply chain, with upstream materials like lithium metal, thionyl chloride, carbon materials, and special membranes largely domestically sourced [2] Group 2: Market and Export Data - In 2024, China's total production of lithium thionyl chloride batteries is projected to reach 680 million units, with a market size of approximately 12.5 billion RMB [2] - The export value of lithium thionyl chloride batteries from China is expected to reach 3.5 billion RMB in 2024, representing an 18.2% year-on-year increase, with the US being the largest export destination, accounting for 30% of total exports [3] - Major companies in the lithium thionyl chloride battery sector include EVE Energy, which is a leading manufacturer, and Penghui Energy, which offers a range of products including lithium thionyl chloride batteries [3] Group 3: Stock Market and Upcoming Unlocks - Next week, a total of 25 stocks will have restricted shares unlocked, with a combined market value exceeding 13 billion RMB, marking the lowest weekly unlock value of the year [5] - Among the stocks, Yandong Microelectronics has the highest unlock value at 5.566 billion RMB, followed by Lintai New Materials at 2.113 billion RMB and Shengxin Lithium Energy at 1.398 billion RMB [6] - Shengxin Lithium Energy is facing significant losses, with projected losses exceeding 600 million RMB in 2024, and has a substantial portion of its shares being unlocked [7]

12月11日，锂电材料企业新宙邦发布公告，宣布其第六届董事会第二十六次会议已审议通过H股 上市相关议案，公司 拟发行境外上市外资股并申请在香港联交所主板挂牌交易 。 新宙邦表示，此次赴港上市的目标在于推进全球化战略落地，实现资源本地化供应，进而提升国际 品牌影响力与全球市场竞争力。 企业通过港股募集的资金，可直接用于海外建厂、资源收购等全球化布局，有效规避欧美绿色贸易 壁垒与各类贸易限制。 如中伟股份借港股融资强化对印尼镍资源的掌控，宁德时代、亿纬锂能则将募资投向欧洲、东南亚 生产基地，精准适配海外市场旺盛的锂电产品需求，加速全球化产能落地。 据高工锂电不完全统计， 2025年以来，以行业龙头 宁德时代 为开端， 截至目前已有超16家锂 电相关企业扎堆赴港上市，覆盖电池、材料、设备等全产业链核心环节，形成规模化上市热潮。 其中，电池板块集结了宁德时代、亿纬锂能、欣旺达、南都电源、海辰储能、正力新能、双登集团 等企业；材料领域有星源材质、天赐材料、中伟股份、盛新锂能、格林美、金晟新能源及新宙邦等 企业；设备端则包括先导智能、中鼎智能等企业， 全产业链赴港上市态势显著 。 从上市模式来看，此次热潮呈现出 多元化 ...

Production Data - In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China reached 176.3 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 49.2% [1][9] - From January to November, the cumulative production of power and other batteries was 1468.8 GWh, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 51.1% [1][9] Sales Data - In November, the total sales of power and other batteries amounted to 179.4 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 52.2% [2][18] - The sales of power batteries in November were 134.0 GWh, accounting for 74.7% of total sales, with a month-on-month increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 52.7% [2][18] - Cumulatively, from January to November, the total sales reached 1412.5 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 54.7% [2][18] Export Data - In November, the total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 46.5% [3][23] - The export of power batteries was 21.2 GWh, accounting for 66.0% of total exports, with a month-on-month increase of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 70.2% [3][28] - From January to November, the cumulative export reached 260.3 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 44.2% [3][23] Installation Data - In November, the domestic installation of power batteries was 93.5 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [4][43] - Cumulatively, from January to November, the total installation reached 671.5 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 42.0% [4][43] Market Concentration - In November, the top two battery manufacturers accounted for 64.0% of the total installation, while the top five and top ten accounted for 80.5% and 94.0%, respectively [53][62] - The number of battery manufacturers in the market decreased to 36 in November, down from the previous year [53]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic cooperation between China and France in addressing global climate and environmental challenges, emphasizing the importance of multilateralism and the implementation of international agreements such as the Paris Agreement [5][6][9] - The report indicates that China's carbon emissions growth has significantly slowed, with a 0.6% increase in 2024 compared to 2023, which is lower than the global average of 0.8% [17][19] - The establishment of a green foreign debt pilot program in Shanghai aims to support "dual carbon" key enterprises, with over 300 million RMB in financing for green technology projects [20][22] Policy Developments - China and France issued a joint statement on climate cooperation during President Macron's visit, reaffirming their commitment to international climate agreements and cooperation in various areas such as carbon pricing and methane reduction [5][6][7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on a draft regulation aimed at enhancing corporate governance and investor protection in listed companies [11][12][13] Industry Trends - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2025 China Mobile Source Environmental Management Annual Report," indicating that mobile sources are a significant contributor to air pollution, with total emissions reaching 18.582 million tons in 2024 [14][15][16] - The "2024 China Greenhouse Gas Bulletin" shows that China's anthropogenic carbon emissions increased by approximately 0.6% in 2024, reflecting effective implementation of carbon reduction commitments [17][19] - The Shanghai branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has initiated a green foreign debt pilot program, with three key enterprises signing agreements to raise over 300 million RMB for green projects [20][22] International Events - The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the 2025 Climate Adaptation Gap Report, highlighting a significant funding gap for climate adaptation in developing countries [24][25] - Former President Trump announced plans to roll back fuel economy standards, which could impact environmental progress in the U.S. automotive industry [26][27][28] - Germany's government has agreed to construct hydrogen-compatible gas power plants, potentially delaying the coal phase-out process [29] Corporate Developments - China Gas and EVE Energy have entered a strategic partnership to collaborate on energy storage and green energy projects [30][31] - Hutchison Whampoa has been recognized as an "ESG Leading Company" for three consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to sustainability and responsible governance [32][33]

Core Points - The article discusses the performance of the Chuangye 50 ETF (159682) as of December 12, noting a 0.48% increase, with a trading volume of 203 million yuan [1] - The article highlights the performance of key stocks within the ETF, including declines in stocks like Ningde Times and Sunshine Power, while others like Xinyisheng and Shenghong Technology saw gains [1] - The Chuangye 50 ETF has a performance benchmark of the ChiNext 50 Index, managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management, with a return of 46.75% since its inception on December 23, 2022, and a 2.02% return over the past month [1] Stock Performance - As of the midday close, Ningde Times decreased by 0.24%, while Xinyisheng increased by 2.63% [1] - Other notable stock performances include a 1.98% increase for Shenghong Technology and a 0.57% increase for Dongfang Caifu [1] - The ETF's performance reflects mixed results among its top holdings, indicating varying market conditions for these companies [1] Fund Management - The Chuangye 50 ETF is managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management, with fund managers Wang Yang and Zhang Xiaonan [1] - The fund's performance since inception and recent monthly returns suggest a strong management strategy, contributing to its overall growth [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the global expansion of Chinese lithium battery manufacturers, particularly focusing on their investments in Europe and North America to adapt to changing market dynamics and regulatory environments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Domestic battery production capacity utilization in China has dropped to a warning level, while overseas markets, particularly Europe and North America, show increasing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage [1][2]. - The average selling price of key battery products in China has decreased by over 35% in the past two years, while raw material costs have fluctuated significantly, squeezing profit margins [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Investments - CATL's investment in a joint battery factory in Zaragoza, Spain, exceeds 30 billion RMB, with a planned capacity of 50GWh, focusing on cost-effective lithium iron phosphate batteries for Stellantis [3][4]. - EVE Energy's factory in Hungary is in the critical phase of mechanical and electrical installation, with a planned capacity of 28GWh, while Guoxuan High-Tech's factory in Slovakia has completed initial construction with a capacity of 20GWh [5][6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU's new battery law impose significant barriers, requiring local production and stringent carbon footprint regulations, which compel Chinese companies to establish manufacturing bases abroad [2][10][11]. - The EU's new battery law necessitates a comprehensive tracking system for the carbon footprint of battery components, increasing the operational complexity for Chinese manufacturers in Europe [14]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Chinese companies face significant challenges in adapting to local supply chains and regulatory environments when establishing factories abroad, including longer approval processes and the need for local compliance [13][14]. - The transition from exporting battery products to building factories and hiring local workers represents a substantial shift in operational strategy for Chinese lithium battery firms [8][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The strategic decision to expand overseas is seen as essential for survival, with companies aiming for 40% of their production capacity to be located internationally by 2030 [12][17]. - The focus is shifting from merely being a cost-effective manufacturer in China to becoming a recognized provider of high-tech solutions in global markets [12][17].