Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The agriculture sector's public fund heavy holdings have decreased in Q1 2025, but there is an expectation for a rebound in Q2 2025 due to enhanced investment logic driven by the US-China tariff escalation [4][13] - The livestock sector shows low valuation recovery potential, while the pet sector's domestic brand growth logic continues to strengthen [6][22][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q1 2025, the public fund heavy holdings in the agriculture sector decreased, with total market value dropping to 12,367 billion yuan, a 0.40% decrease quarter-on-quarter, and accounting for 1.69% of the A-share market [4][13] - The heavy holdings in the agriculture sector represented 0.40% of the total public fund stock investment, down from 0.44% in Q4 2023 [4][13] Weekly Insights - The low valuation of the pig sector presents a buying opportunity, supported by a recovery in consumption and macro policies [22] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [22] Market Performance (April 21-25) - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.72 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% while the agriculture index fell by 0.16% [25][29] - The pet food sector led the gains, with individual stocks like Zhongchong Co. and Guibao Pet rising significantly [25][31] Price Tracking (April 21-25) - The average price of live pigs was 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat increased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 19.31 yuan/kg [36] - The average price of beef rose to 68.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.84% increase [36][43] Key News (April 21-25) - The number of breeding sows at the end of Q1 2025 was 40.39 million, a 1.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 1.2% increase year-on-year, indicating stable production capacity [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in the proportion of public fund heavy holdings in the agriculture sector for Q1 2025, attributed to the escalation of tariffs between China and the U.S. However, an increase in heavy holdings is expected in Q2 2025 due to the sector's enhanced risk-averse attributes [4][13] - The total market capitalization of the agriculture sector decreased to 12,367 billion yuan, a decline of 0.40% quarter-on-quarter, representing 1.69% of the A-share market capitalization, down 0.03 percentage points [4][13] - The report highlights that the livestock sector has seen a significant year-on-year decline in public fund heavy holdings, while other sub-sectors remain relatively stable [5][16] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, the public fund heavy holdings in the agriculture sector decreased, with the heavy holdings market value accounting for only 0.40% of the total public fund stock investment, down from 0.44% in Q4 2023 [4][13][15] - The sub-sectors of livestock, feed, planting, animal health, and agricultural product processing had public fund heavy holdings of 0.19%, 0.17%, 0.03%, 0.01%, and 0.003% respectively, with the livestock sector experiencing a notable year-on-year decline [5][16] Market Performance - For the week of April 21-25, the agriculture index underperformed the broader market by 0.72 percentage points, with the agriculture index declining by 0.16% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% [24][28] - The report notes that the pet food sector led the gains among sub-sectors during this period, with individual stocks like Zhongchong Co. and Guibao Pet rising significantly [24][29] Price Tracking - As of April 25, the average price of live pigs was 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat increased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 19.31 yuan/kg [7][35] - The report also tracks price movements for various agricultural products, noting increases in beef and bass prices, while prices for shrimp have decreased [35][45]

| 证券區称 | 童业收入 (亿元) | 同比增长 (%) | 日母净利润 (亿元) | 同比增长 ( % ) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪 | 1703.60 | 36.35 | 91.55 | 100.38 | | 宁德时代 | 847.05 | 6.18 | 139.63 | 32.85 | | 恒瑞医药 | 72.06 | 20.14 | 18.74 | 36.90 | | 事武纪-U | 11.11 | 4230.22 | 3.55 | 256.82 | | 牧原股份 | 360.61 | 37.26 | 44.91 | 288.79 | | 洛阳辑业 | 460.06 | -0.25 | 39.46 | 90.47 | | 爱尔眼科 | 60.26 | 15.97 | 10.50 | 16.71 | | 阳光电源 | 190.36 | 50.92 | 38.26 | 82.52 | | 宝丰能源 | 107.71 | 30.92 | 24.37 | 71.49 | 部分民企一季度业绩情况 （截至4月25日，数据来源：Choice） ◎记者 胡嘉树 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant cost improvements and strong performance in its financial results, with a total revenue of 104.92 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.68%, and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 24.33 billion yuan, up 11.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, indicating substantial year-on-year improvement [4][5]. - The company has a leading market share in the poultry sector, with chicken sales reaching 1.208 billion birds in 2024, accounting for 8.41% of the national total, while pork sales amounted to 30.182 million heads, representing 4.30% of the national total [5][6]. - The report highlights a rapid decline in breeding costs, with the comprehensive cost of pig farming dropping to approximately 6.3 yuan per jin, and the cost of chicken farming decreasing to 5.6 yuan per jin [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 104.32 billion yuan, 106.65 billion yuan, and 124.10 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.53 billion yuan, 8.33 billion yuan, and 15.40 billion yuan [9][10]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, 13, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [9][10].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 104.92 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 24.32 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, up 261.9% year-on-year [2] Group 1: Business Performance - In 2024, the company benefited from significant optimization of breeding costs and a decrease in feed raw material prices, leading to strong profitability in both pig and poultry farming [3] - The pig farming segment saw a notable increase in profits due to a significant rise in pig prices, while the poultry segment experienced stable profit growth despite a decline in sales prices [3] - For Q1 2025, the company continued to see a decline in breeding costs, with pig prices remaining strong, contributing to higher-than-expected overall profitability [3] Group 2: Production and Cost Analysis - The company reported a steady increase in pig output, with 30.18 million pigs and 8.59 million pigs slaughtered in 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 15% and 20% [3] - The average breeding cost for pigs in 2024 was approximately 14.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 2.4 yuan/kg year-on-year, positioning the company among the top tier in the industry [3] - In Q1 2025, the breeding cost further decreased to 12.6 yuan/kg, with an estimated profit of about 300 yuan per pig [3] Group 3: Poultry Farming Insights - The company sold 1.21 billion and 280 million meat chickens in 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.1% and 5.4% [4] - The average sales price for chickens in 2024 was approximately 13 yuan/kg, down 4.6% year-on-year, while the total cost of production decreased to 12 yuan/kg, down 11.8% year-on-year, allowing for profit growth despite market challenges [4] - By February 2025, the total production cost for chickens further declined to 11.2 yuan/kg, with an estimated loss of about 0.5 yuan per chicken in Q1 [4] Group 4: Financial Health - The company's capital structure improved, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 51.45% by the end of Q1 2025, down 11.92 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The ratio of interest-bearing debt also declined, and the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 0.78% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 105.59 billion, 111.80 billion, and 121.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.75 billion, 11.63 billion, and 14.10 billion yuan [4] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 11.51, 9.65, and 7.96 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [8][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable increase in revenue and a return to profitability in 2024. The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.64%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][6]. - The company benefits from a dual business model in pig and chicken farming, which provides a buffer against industry downturns. The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.12 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 2.35 yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [8][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 16.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 112.3 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 88.3 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 6.654 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.12 [4][5]. - The largest shareholder is Wen Pengcheng, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the pig farming segment generated revenue of 64.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.71%. The company achieved a stable increase in pig output, with 30.18 million pigs sold in 2024, up 14.93% from the previous year [6]. - The chicken farming segment reported revenue of 35.72 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 2.58%. Despite lower prices, the segment remained profitable due to reduced costs [7]. - The company's financial health has improved, with a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 53.14% in 2024 to 51.45% in Q1 2025 [7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects a decline in revenue for 2025 to 102.41 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, with expected revenues of 110.49 billion yuan in 2026 and 133.81 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit is expected to decrease to 7.44 billion yuan in 2025 but rebound to 11.07 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.63 billion yuan in 2027 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [8][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable increase in revenue and a return to profitability in 2024. The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.64%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][6]. - The company benefits from a dual business model in pig and chicken farming, which provides resilience against industry cycles. The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.12 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 2.35 yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [8][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 16.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 112.3 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.12 [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 6.654 billion shares, with 5.235 billion shares in circulation [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's pig farming segment generated revenue of 64.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.71%. The average selling price of live pigs was 16.71 yuan/kg, up 12.83% from the previous year [6]. - The chicken farming segment reported revenue of 35.72 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 2.58%. Despite lower prices, the segment remained profitable due to reduced costs [7]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 53.14% in 2024, down 8.27 percentage points from the previous period, indicating better financial stability [7]. Future Projections - The company aims to increase its pig output to between 33 million and 35 million heads in 2025, reflecting a commitment to growth in production capacity [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 102.41 billion yuan, 110.49 billion yuan, and 133.81 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of -2.4%, 7.89%, and 21.11% [10][11].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 04 25 年 月 日 农林牧渔 养殖减配明显，种植小幅减配——2025Q1 持仓分析 四季度重仓继续减配。截止 2025 年一季度，农林牧渔股重仓占比 0.92 %，环比下降 0.08pct，同比下降 0.74pct。第一季度农林牧渔重 仓占比低于行业平均配置比例 0.46pct，从 10 年历史平均来看农林牧渔重 仓占比约为 1.64%，目前配置水平远低于平均水平和标配水平，为近 3 年 来最低。 养殖减配为主，其他板块变化较小。分行业来看，养殖业 25Q1 重仓占比 0.45%，环比下降 0.06pct，同比下降 0.65pct，一季度周期方向不明，板 块随之减配；饲料、动物保健重仓占比分别下降 0.003pct、上升 0.003pct， 整体变化较小；种植业重仓占比下降 0.02pct，小幅减弱。 龙头重仓股减配，中宠股份增配。分公司来看，前 15 大重仓股中，大部 分公司有所减配，仅中宠股份增配约 0.03pct，海大集团、温氏股份、牧原 股份均小幅减配，环比减少 0.02pct、0.02pct、0.03pct。通过重仓持股市 值与 ...

2、4月24日，创新药沪深港ETF（517110）表现亮眼。较高的任务容错率为AI在创新药研发领域的应用 带来了诸多的积极影响。AI生成方面，药物分子及蛋白质结构设计均是AI大展身手的领域。而在AI分 析领域，靶点的发现与验证、药物活性预测、药物动力学分析等领域均有望随着AI技术的引入实现降 本增效。此外，产业消息方面，华为医疗卫生军团成立等利好消息的发布或将抬升行业的乐观预期。受 益于AI赋能和相关概念外溢，叠加产业政策催化，创新药板块或存在盈利和估值抬升的可能，值得投 资者关注。同时，生物医药大板块也经过了较为充分的调整，存在一定的赔率性机会。 3、养殖板块自进入财报季后，利好消息频发。4月23日晚间，温氏股份公布年报和一季报，营收数据喜 人。农业农村部办公厅印发《2025年全国种业监管执法年活动方案》。当前能繁母猪存栏环比仅微增 0.08%，叠加关税冲击下饲料成本上涨，或能加速中小产能出清。 阅读原文 摘要： 1、近日，COMEX黄金期货价格高位巨震，最高触及3509点后回落，五日最大回撤近6.8%。究其原 因，市场对特朗普解雇美联储主席鲍威尔可能引发美元、美债危机的担忧，构成了短期黄金先冲顶后回 撤的 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 04 25 年 月 日 农林牧渔 养殖减配明显，种植小幅减配——2025Q1 持仓分析 四季度重仓继续减配。截止 2025 年一季度，农林牧渔股重仓占比 0.92 %，环比下降 0.08pct，同比下降 0.74pct。第一季度农林牧渔重 仓占比低于行业平均配置比例 0.46pct，从 10 年历史平均来看农林牧渔重 仓占比约为 1.64%，目前配置水平远低于平均水平和标配水平，为近 3 年 来最低。 养殖减配为主，其他板块变化较小。分行业来看，养殖业 25Q1 重仓占比 0.45%，环比下降 0.06pct，同比下降 0.65pct，一季度周期方向不明，板 块随之减配；饲料、动物保健重仓占比分别下降 0.003pct、上升 0.003pct， 整体变化较小；种植业重仓占比下降 0.02pct，小幅减弱。 龙头重仓股减配，中宠股份增配。分公司来看，前 15 大重仓股中，大部 分公司有所减配，仅中宠股份增配约 0.03pct，海大集团、温氏股份、牧原 股份均小幅减配，环比减少 0.02pct、0.02pct、0.03pct。通过重仓持股市 值与 ...