Core Viewpoint - Guangku Technology has experienced significant revenue growth driven by data communication, with a notable increase in demand from downstream optical module manufacturers [1] Company Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Guangku Technology reported revenue of 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.11% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 401 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 26.53%, slightly exceeding expectations [1] - The acquisition of Wuhan Jabil is expected to enhance the company's positioning in the OCS market, which is projected to reach a global market size of 2 billion dollars by 2030 [1] Industry Summary - The data communication business is experiencing rapid growth due to increased demand from optical module manufacturers [1] - The trend towards OCS is clear, indicating a sustained opportunity for the company to expand its operations in this area [1] - The average industry valuation suggests a price-to-earnings ratio of 103.51x for 2026, leading to an upward revision of the target price to 177 yuan from the previous 130 yuan, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the AI sector, particularly in the context of the recent performance of the ChiNext AI ETF and the growth prospects for companies involved in AI and related technologies [1][4] - New Yi Sheng, a leading optical module CPO, has seen a significant increase in stock price, indicating strong market interest and performance in the optical module sector [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a substantial upward revision in Google's TPU production forecasts, suggesting a robust demand for AI-related hardware, which could benefit optical module suppliers [3] Group 2 - The AI industry is experiencing a clear upward trend, with short-term adjustments providing good opportunities for investment, particularly in the computing power and AI application sectors [4] - The optical module industry is expected to see a capacity release in Q1 2026, driven by the high demand in the computing power supply chain, which is likely to enhance the performance of leading optical module manufacturers [3] - The first ChiNext AI ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with a significant portion of its holdings focused on optical module leaders, reflecting the growing importance of this sector in the AI landscape [4]

Core Viewpoint - The communication equipment sector experienced a slight increase of 0.23% on December 2, with notable gains from specific stocks, while the overall market indices, Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, saw declines of 0.42% and 0.68% respectively [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The leading stock in the communication equipment sector was Feiling Kesi, which surged by 20.00% to a closing price of 112.20, with a trading volume of 104,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.079 billion [1] - Tongyu Communication and Guanghe Dao followed with increases of 10.02% and 6.24%, closing at 28.78 and 34.40 respectively [1] - The sector also included other gainers such as Shida Group and Zhaolong Huilian, which rose by 6.08% and 5.65% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Capital Flow - The communication equipment sector saw a net outflow of 5.137 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.624 billion [2] - The data indicates that speculative funds had a net inflow of 1.513 billion, highlighting a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Group 3: Individual Stock Fund Flow - New Yisheng recorded a significant net inflow of 1.076 billion from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 435 million from speculative funds [3] - Feiling Kesi also showed strong institutional support with a net inflow of 18.4 million, despite a net outflow from speculative and retail investors [3] - Other stocks like Tianfu Communication and Zhaolong Huilian experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow, reflecting diverse investor interest [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 177 RMB, representing a potential upside of 146% [5][12]. Core Insights - The company has significantly increased its revenue, driven by data communication, with a reported revenue of 0.10 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, up 35.11% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 0.12 billion RMB, up 106.61% year-on-year [5][13]. - The trend towards Optical Communication Systems (OCS) is clear, with projections indicating that the global OCS market could reach 2 billion USD by 2030. The company's acquisition of Wuhan Jiepu positions it well for future market opportunities [5][14]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 710 million RMB in 2023 to 3,605 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45.5% from 2024 to 2025 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 60 million RMB in 2023 to 598 million RMB in 2027, with a significant jump of 221.6% from 2025 to 2026 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.24 RMB in 2023 to 2.40 RMB in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4][5].

Fixed Income Research - In the current low interest rate environment, real estate bonds have certain yield exploration space, but the fundamentals of the sector still need further improvement. The overall strategy recommendation remains focused on steady defense [2][6]. Paper and Light Industry Research - The operational efficiency and employee motivation of Bohui Paper Industry have improved, backed by Golden Light Paper Industry, enhancing long-term competitiveness [2][10]. Telecommunications Research - Guangku Technology has raised its profit forecast and target price, maintaining a buy rating. Revenue has significantly increased, driven by rapid growth in data communication [2][12]. Retail and Social Services Research - Tongcheng Travel's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with seasonal growth in hotel and transportation sectors improving sequentially. The company continues to achieve stable profit release through take rate enhancement and efficiency improvements [2][15][16]. Public Utilities Research - In the context of market capitalization assessment, state-owned enterprises with weak stock prices may have buyback demands. There is also potential for thermal power companies to increase dividends or buybacks [2][19][37].

Industry Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating [49] - The real estate industry maintains an "overweight" rating [57] - The insurance industry maintains an "overweight" rating [86] Core Viewpoints - Global risk preferences have significantly declined, leading to asset price fluctuations and panic selling. However, China's capital market is expected to recover in valuation and experience significant development, with A/H shares, industrial commodities recommended for tactical overweight, and US dollars for tactical underweight [20][21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December has risen significantly, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. The Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize, and the policies of various industries will promote the improvement of industry fundamentals [8][15] - The technology theme is expected to return to the main line, and themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are worthy of attention [29] Summary by Directory Macro Reports - **Global Asset Performance**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, major global stock markets rose, commodities generally increased, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [5] - **US Economy**: Manufacturing new orders increased, housing price growth slowed, and consumer growth also slowed [6] - **European Economy**: Business confidence in the eurozone stabilized [7] - **Overseas Policies**: The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December rose to 80%, the ECB President said the current interest rate was appropriate, the UK's budget faced a "technical leak", Japan's bond - issuing plan tilted towards short - term bonds, and the BOJ's December interest rate hike expectation did not increase [8][9][10] - **China's Economy**: Consumption, investment, and production showed structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI marginally rebounded due to improved external demand, and the construction industry's business activity index also increased marginally, but the service industry's declined [13][15] Asset Allocation Report - **A/H Shares**: Tactical overweight is maintained due to multiple factors supporting China's equity performance, such as the release of micro - trading risks and the approaching policy window [20] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tactical standard allocation is maintained because of the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, and the central bank may take action to maintain market liquidity [20] - **Industrial Commodities**: Tactical overweight is maintained as industrial metals like copper may face supply - demand imbalances, with strong demand and increasing development costs [21] - **US Dollars**: Tactical underweight is maintained as the Fed's policy adjustment and the marginal convergence of the US economy reduce the dollar's allocation value [21] Strategy Reports - **Asset Overview**: Global risk preferences recovered, stocks and commodities rose, silver and copper prices hit record highs, and the dollar index weakened. A - shares and other major global stock markets generally rebounded, and the bond market showed a pattern of a bearish steepening in China and a bullish steepening in the US [23][24][25] - **Theme Analysis**: The trading heat of hot themes was stable, the technology theme returned, and funds flowed into AI and communication. Themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are recommended [29] Overseas Strategy Reports - **Fund Flows**: North - bound funds may have a small net inflow, and south - bound funds' inflow into e - commerce and retail reached a new high since October. Overseas funds showed different flow trends in different markets [36][37] - **Policy Tracking**: Domestic policies covered macro, industrial, and local aspects, and overseas policies included diplomatic, economic, and interest - rate - related policies [39][40][43] Industry Reports - **Steel**: Demand is expected to stabilize, supply is expected to contract, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to gradually recover. Companies with product and cost advantages are recommended [45][48][49] - **Utilities**: The proportion of long - term contract electricity in 2026 is expected to decrease, electricity prices may have limited declines, and the industry's valuation is expected to improve [52] - **Real Estate**: The transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities rebounded, and the spot - housing sales are beneficial to the industry's healthy development [57][58] - **Food and Beverage**: CPI data has boosted the sector's expectations. Different sub - sectors such as liquor, beverages, and snacks have corresponding investment recommendations [62] - **Robotics**: Overseas and domestic companies have made progress in the field of humanoid robots, and investment in this field is active. Core component suppliers and整机 manufacturers are recommended [67][68][69] - **Machinery**: The weekly operating load rate of industrial gases increased, and important projects such as the second - phase of the Huanneng Jintan salt - cavern compressed - air energy - storage project advanced. Related companies are recommended [73][74][75] - **Insurance**: In October 2025, the growth rate of life and property insurance premiums declined marginally. The industry is optimistic about the growth of the life insurance's new business value (NBV) in the 2026 opening season and the continuous improvement of the property insurance's combined ratio (COR) [83][84][85] - **Agriculture**: Corn prices rose, the pet food market showed different trends at home and abroad, and the pig - breeding industry needs to pay attention to the epidemic and demand. Related companies in different sub - sectors are recommended [88][89][90] - **Textile and Apparel**: The US clothing retail industry showed growth, and the overseas K - shaped consumption trend continued. Export - manufacturing and brand - end companies are recommended [93][94][95]

如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《重视科技资金动能增强的信号》 2025-11-29 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（11 月第 4 周）》2025-11-29 3、《12 月金股报告》2025-11-27 报告摘要 一、如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 本周市场热点集中在 TMT 等科技板块，科技板块在超跌背景下迎来反弹，通信设备、 电子元件、游戏、消费电子等领涨两市。通信、电子、传媒行业周度涨幅分别达到 8.70%、6.05%、4.23%，均已收复上周跌幅，其中通信已强势接近 10 月底高点。 在申万二级行业中，通信设备、电子元件、游戏、消费电子尤其强势，周涨幅均在 5%以上。光模块 CPO、光芯片、光通信、光电路交换机 OCS、6G 等多个通信主题 指数涨幅超过 10%。光库科技、通宇通讯、特发信息等产业链个股单周涨超 30% ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that 39 stocks appeared on the weekly trading list, with 24 showing net purchases from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net purchases were Saiwei Electronics, BlueFocus Communication Group, and Guangku Technology, with net purchases of 355.30 million, 182.56 million, and 150.01 million respectively [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchased stocks outperformed the market, with an average increase of 12.61%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% [1] Group 2 - The stock with the largest increase was Saiwei Electronics, which saw a cumulative price increase of 44.85% during the week [1] - A total of 15 stocks experienced net sales, with the largest net sales recorded for Giant Network and Vision China, amounting to 287.51 million and 121.97 million respectively [2] - The trading volume for the stocks with net purchases was notably high, with Saiwei Electronics showing a turnover rate of 159.34% [1]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, inspired by research from George (2004) and methodologies like CANSLIM and "Stock Wizard". The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback from the peak price [11][19][23] - The report evaluates the model positively, emphasizing its ability to capture market trends and identify leading stocks in various industries and sectors. It highlights the effectiveness of momentum strategies and the importance of tracking stocks that consistently hit new highs [11][18][23] - The report provides backtesting results for the "250-day new high distance" model. As of November 28, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index have respective distances of 3.50%, 5.40%, 4.66%, 6.85%, 4.10%, 2.78%, 8.17%, and 13.77% from their 250-day highs [12][31][32] - The report introduces a factor-based stock selection methodology for identifying "stable new high stocks". The factors include analyst attention (at least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend sustainability (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). Stocks are ranked based on these criteria, and the top 50% are selected [23][26][27] - The report evaluates the factor-based methodology positively, citing research by Turan G Bali et al. (2011) and Da, Gurun et al. (2012) that demonstrate the superior performance of stocks with smooth price paths and strong momentum effects [23][26][27] - Backtesting results for the factor-based methodology show that 26 stocks were selected as "stable new high stocks" for the week ending November 28, 2025. These include stocks from sectors such as cyclical industries (e.g., non-ferrous metals), manufacturing (e.g., construction), and others. Examples include Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Zhongkuang Resources [27][30][32]

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks that have reached new highs, using the 250-day high distance as a key metric[11] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of November 28, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 3.50%, Shenzhen Component Index 5.40%, CSI 300 4.66%, CSI 500 6.85%, CSI 1000 4.10%, CSI 2000 2.78%, ChiNext Index 8.17%, and STAR 50 Index 13.77%[12][13] - The report identifies 1043 stocks that reached new 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and machinery industries[19] - The report also tracks "stable new high stocks" based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability[23] - The selection criteria for stable new high stocks include: at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months, top 20% in 250-day price change, and a composite score based on price path smoothness and new high continuity[26] - The report lists 26 stable new high stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Zhongkuang Resources, with the highest numbers in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors[27][30]