Core Viewpoint - Star Royalties Ltd. has entered into a binding agreement with Nhwelmen Construction Limited Partnership, allowing Elk Gold Mining Corp. to repurchase the Company's 2% net smelter return royalty on the Elk Gold Mine in exchange for a 5% equity ownership in Gold Mountain Mining Corp. following the resolution of Gold Mountain's court-appointed receivership process [1][2]. Transaction Highlights - The restructuring enables the Company to capitalize on the reorganization of Elk Gold and maintain optionality regarding the underlying resources [2]. - The equity position in Gold Mountain expands the Company's exposure to 21,187 hectares, significantly increasing the land package previously covered by the royalty [2]. - Elk Gold will be developed by a reputable operator known for safety and environmental stewardship, with permitting support from NCLP [2]. - The restructuring aligns the interests of the Company, NCLP, and the Nlaka'pamux Nation Tribal Council for long-term value maximization of Elk Gold [4]. Wealth Creation Potential - Near-term catalysts for Elk Gold include a revised resource statement, updated mine plan, exploration programs, and the announcement of a development partner [4]. - The new equity stake in Gold Mountain is expected to potentially surpass the value of the 2% NSR royalty, with unchanged positive asset attributes such as location, grade profile, and near-term cash flow potential [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates has led to a decline in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4,241 per ounce as of the close of A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), saw a slight increase of 0.17%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) remained flat, and the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) decreased by 0.52% [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that U.S. gold ETFs currently represent only 0.17% of private non-cash financial investment portfolios, down approximately 6 basis points from the peak level in 2012 [1] - This allocation is significantly lower than the mid-to-high single-digit percentage allocations recommended by institutions like Citigroup, UBS, and Bridgewater [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that for every 1 basis point increase in gold's share within the financial investment portfolio—driven by incremental purchases rather than price increases—gold prices could rise by approximately 1.4% [1] - Analysts suggest that if diversification flows extend from central banks to private investors, the $4,900 gold price target faces "significant upside risk" [1]

高盛认为，美国私人投资组合中的黄金配置处于历史低位，为金价在未来一年半内冲击每盎司4900美元的目标创造了巨大空间。 据追风交易台，高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在最新报告中指出，美国黄金ETF目前仅占私人非现金金融投资组合的 0.17%，较2012年峰值水平低约6个基点。这一配置比例远低于花旗、瑞银、桥水等机构建议的中高个位数百分比配置。 高盛估算，美国金融投资组合中黄金份额每增加1个基点——由增量投资者购买而非价格上涨驱动——将推动金价上涨约1.4%。分 析师表示，如果多元化资金流动从央行扩展至私人投资者，其4900美元的金价目标面临"显著上行风险"。 截至目前，现货黄金报4213.2美元/盎司，日内跌0.36%，本周呈现反弹趋势。 根据13F文件数据，在管理超过1亿美元资产的美国大型机构投资者中，不到一半持有任何黄金ETF敞口。即使在持有黄金的机构 中，配置比例通常也仅为0.1%至0.5%。 据2025年第三季度13F文件数据，美国机构投资者的黄金参与率为46%，高于2020年学术研究中约30%的水平。在有黄金敞口的机构 中，等权重平均配置为1.7%，而价值加权平均配置为0 ...

高盛集团在一封电邮公告中表示，如果美国私人投资者将资金部署到黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）中， 那么到2026年底金价达到每盎司4，900美元的预期有很大上调空间。 分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven称，黄金ETF在私人金融投资组合中的占比仅为0.17%。分析师认为 黄金ETF是衡量美国市场黄金敞口的最通用工具。 分析师表示，目前的黄金敞口仍低于2012年峰值，"当前黄金持仓仍然很低"。 高盛估计，美国金融投资组合中黄金占比每增加一个基点，金价就会上涨1.4%。 这是基于新增购买的影响，而不是现有持仓的价格上涨。 报告指出，"长期资本配置者正在考虑增加黄金配置，将其作为战略性投资组合多元化工具。即使从全 球债券和股票投资组合中抽出资金适度重新配置黄金，也可能大幅推高规模相对较小黄金市场的价 格"。 据高盛对13F文件的分析，美国最大的投资者中，持有黄金ETF的不到一半。 高盛估计，美国金融投资组合中黄金占比每增加一个基点，金价就会上涨1.4%。 这是基于新增购买的影响，而不是现有持仓的价格上涨。 报告指出，"长期资本配置者正在考虑增加黄金配置，将其作为战略性投资组合多元化工具。即使从全 球 ...

Market Performance - Wall Street set records with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial rising by 646 points, or 1.3%, surpassing its previous record [1] - The Nasdaq composite lagged, decreasing by 0.3% due to weakness in AI stocks [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the profitability of investments in AI technology have been prevalent [2] - The Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate for the third time this year, with indications of another potential cut in 2026, which is generally favorable for market conditions [4] Company Performance - Goldman Sachs and Visa saw gains of 2.5% and 6.1% respectively, contributing significantly to the Dow's rise [6] - The Walt Disney Company increased by 2.4% after announcing a $1 billion investment in OpenAI, which includes a three-year agreement for content collaboration [6] - Eli Lilly's stock rose by 1.6% following positive clinical trial results for a treatment related to obesity and knee osteoarthritis [7] - Planet Labs PBC experienced a significant increase of 35% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly results [7] Market Sentiment - The Russell 2000 index, representing smaller U.S. stocks, increased by 1.2%, indicating positive sentiment towards smaller companies benefiting from lower interest rates [5] - The Federal Reserve's chair, Jerome Powell, provided reassurance to investors with comments that were less severe than anticipated regarding future interest rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut during its December meeting, with a high probability of 88.6% according to CME data, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative policy environment due to declining inflation and signs of cooling employment [1]. Group 1: Inflation Trends - The PCE price index for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which is better than the previous value of 2.7% [3]. - The core PCE price index also rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous year's 2.9%, indicating a stable inflation environment that supports the case for monetary policy easing [3]. - Overall, consumer spending has stagnated, reflecting financial strain among Americans prior to the government shutdown, which further supports the argument for a more lenient monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The latest ADP employment data indicates an average weekly addition of 4,750 jobs in private enterprises, showing improvement from previous negative growth, but highlights significant structural disparities, particularly affecting small businesses [4]. - Small businesses experienced a net job loss of 120,000 in November, while larger firms added approximately 90,000 jobs, indicating a troubling trend for the overall employment landscape [4]. - The non-farm payroll data for September showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%, suggesting underlying weaknesses in the labor market [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs has indicated that a December rate cut is "basically a done deal," with market pricing reflecting a probability exceeding 85%, driven by labor market slowdowns and risk management needs [6]. - The report emphasizes that despite strong non-farm job additions, rising unemployment and increased layoffs signal a weakening labor structure, supporting the case for a "preventive rate cut" to mitigate economic slowdown risks [6]. - Looking ahead, fiscal policies, such as infrastructure and industrial stimulus measures, are expected to drive economic growth, with projections of U.S. economic growth remaining in the 2%–2.5% range [6].

10 December 2025 | 8:40AM EST Economics Research Global Markets Daily: FX Vulnerabilities to China's Overcapacity Exhibit 1: The Yuan has grown increasingly undervalued since 2022 and is now about 20% undervalued versus GSDEER Isabella Rosenberg +1(212)357-7628 | isabella.rosenberg@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n Resilient Chinese growth should lead to a stronger Yuan, but the global impact of overcapacity and increased trade competition could have negative spillovers to ot ...

China - The Chinese government has established a "moderately loose" monetary policy, leading to a steepening of the government bond yield curve, with the 30-year and 2-year yield spread reaching a year-to-date high. This is driven by liquidity easing expectations, with the central bank injecting 110.5 billion yuan in a single day and lowering the overnight repo rate to 1.28%, a new low for 2023. The long end of the curve is under pressure due to a significant supply-demand mismatch, with a 30% year-on-year increase in 30-year bond supply and a projected fiscal expansion in 2026 [5][12][15]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the Chinese yuan is currently about 25% structurally undervalued, with a fair value theoretically anchored at 5.0. The bank has designated the yuan as a "high conviction" trade, arguing that even a gradual appreciation will maintain export competitiveness despite market concerns [7][10]. - Data since 2017 shows a strong correlation between a strong yuan and strong exports, contradicting traditional fears that yuan appreciation would hinder export competitiveness. This reflects the inherent resilience of China's macroeconomic fundamentals, where strong industrial competitiveness supports external demand expansion and currency stability [10][21]. - The "carry-to-volatility" ratio in the Chinese bond market has collapsed to extremely low levels, limiting the attractiveness of long-duration bonds. With the central bank's slow interest rate cuts already partially priced in, the meager carry space fails to adequately compensate for the volatility risks associated with holding long-term bonds [12][15]. - Recent data indicates that the complexity of China's export products has significantly diverged from low-end assembly represented by Vietnam, aligning more closely with high-end manufacturing characteristics of Japan [18]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that the real effective exchange rate of the yuan has fallen to its lowest point in over a decade, enhancing China's export competitiveness but exacerbating global trade imbalances. The IMF has projected a GDP growth rate of 5% for 2025, while warning that excessive reliance on export-driven growth could escalate tensions with major trading partners [21]. United States - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations. However, there is a significant division among decision-makers, with some advocating for no change and others suggesting a larger cut. The Fed has also initiated a monthly purchase plan for short-term bonds to maintain ample reserves, indicating a shift from continuous easing to a more cautious approach [23][26]. - The latest dot plot from the Fed indicates a consistent median rate forecast, suggesting a gradual rate cut of 25 basis points annually over the next two years, with a more dovish outlook than previously anticipated [26][28]. - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for the next four years, reflecting stronger economic momentum than previously assessed. The inflation outlook has been adjusted downward, reinforcing the expectation of a "soft landing" for the economy [28]. - The asset-liability structure of American middle-class households is undergoing a significant transformation, with essential spending on housing, healthcare, and childcare now consuming a larger share of median income. This shift is creating purchasing power anxiety among households [33]. - The era of light-asset business models for tech giants is ending, as significant capital expenditures are now required for AI infrastructure, aligning these companies more closely with capital-intensive industries like energy [36]. - Apple's lagging AI strategy has led to a structural decoupling of its stock price from other tech giants, with its correlation with the sector dropping significantly. This has resulted in a market perception of Apple as a "anti-AI" asset, prompting efforts to reverse this trend through management changes [40]. Europe - The European Central Bank's executive board member has indicated that the next policy adjustment may be an interest rate hike, leading to a significant re-pricing of long-term interest rates in the Eurozone. Market expectations for a rate hike have shifted dramatically, with the probability now exceeding 50% [47]. Asia-Pacific - The Bank of Japan has disclosed that it holds approximately 83 trillion yen in ETFs, effectively locking in about 7% of the Japanese stock market's float. Despite plans for a gradual exit from this position, the central bank's holdings significantly influence market pricing [58]. - The high minimum trading requirements in Japan's stock market are hindering retail investor participation, with the median minimum investment amount being over ten times that of the U.S. market [58][61]. - Nintendo is facing severe challenges to its profitability due to rising component costs, particularly for its upcoming Switch 2 hardware, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price [64].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant market movements following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with a focus on the performance of various sectors, particularly technology and e-commerce, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards growth and defensive assets [4][10][17]. Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, S&P 500 up 0.67%, and Nasdaq up 0.33% [8]. - Notable gainers included Nike (+3.91%), Caterpillar (+3.56%), and Johnson & Johnson (+3.32%), leading the Dow components [9][10]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third cut of the year [17]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the economic outlook remains stable, with moderate expansion and a cooling labor market, while inflation remains above the 2% target [19]. Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.29%, reaching a historical high, driven by strong performances from companies like Micron Technology (+4.47%) and Qualcomm (+3.53%) [22][25]. - The rise in semiconductor stocks reflects growing investor confidence in the technology sector amid broader market gains [23]. E-commerce Trends - Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2030, smart agent shopping could account for 10%–20% of the e-commerce market, representing a potential $190 billion to $385 billion in U.S. e-commerce spending [27][28]. - Approximately 23% of Americans have used AI for shopping in the past month, indicating significant adoption potential for AI-driven shopping experiences [28].

美联储在12月议息会议上如期降息25个基点，这是其连续第三次下调利率。 据追风交易台，12月11日，高盛分析师Giulio发布报告认为，尽管会议出现了自2019年以来最多的反对票，且经济增长预期被上调，带有一定 的"鹰派"色彩，但整体决议基调"没有市场担心的那么强硬"，成功平衡了风险并引发了市场的积极反应。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9比3的投票结果将基准利率目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%。投票分歧显著，Schmid和Goolsbee两位成员倾向于维 持利率不变，而Miran则主张更大幅度地降息50个基点。关键的政策声明中恢复了关于美联储将考虑"额外调整的程度和时机"的措辞，这标志着政 策重心转向对未来数据和劳动力市场风险的审慎评估。 市场对此反应积极，表明美联储此次的操作是一次成功的"风险管理"式降息。据彭博行情显示，虽然投资者在会前持防御性仓位，但在决议发布 及鲍威尔发表讲话后，标普500指数上涨，美元指数和2年期美债收益率均下探至日内低点。 9比3的投票结果显示出委员会内部对政策路径即存争议：除了主张维持利率不变的Schmid和Goolsbee外，还有包括这二人在内的多位成员在点阵 图预测中表 ...