Core Viewpoint - The Future Fund of Australia highlights increasing risks of "more frequent and severe new shocks" to the global economy, prompting a shift in asset allocation towards gold, actively managed stocks, and hedge funds [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The Future Fund has raised its allocation to gold and other commodities to provide asymmetric protection against supply-driven inflation and stagflation [3][4]. - The fund aims for long-term returns exceeding 4% to 5% above the consumer price index (CPI) while managing risk at an acceptable level [3]. - The report indicates a fundamental shift in the global investment landscape, characterized by increased uncertainty, rising inflation pressures, and heightened market volatility [3]. Group 2: Gold Demand and Price Projections - Global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, reaching 3,717 tons, with a value increase of 41% to $384 billion [1]. - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by private investors diversifying their portfolios with gold [1][6]. - Central banks are expected to continue significant gold purchases, with a projected average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Trends - A survey indicates that 64% of central banks plan to increase foreign exchange reserves, with 47% explicitly stating intentions to increase gold holdings as a strategic tool against geopolitical and financial risks [5]. - In the first three quarters of the year, global central bank gold demand reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [5]. Group 4: Gold ETFs and Market Performance - Global physically-backed gold ETFs experienced net inflows for five consecutive months, with October's inflow reaching $8.2 billion, indicating strong annual performance [6]. - As of the end of October, total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs grew by 6% to $503 billion, with holdings increasing by 1% to 3,893 tons [6]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America projecting a target price of $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [6].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of S funds and continuation funds as key liquidity sources for GPs and LPs in the private equity market [7] Public Market Insights - Stock markets are driven by AI, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy, with a focus on combining fundamental and quantitative strategies [4] - The "Seven Giants" in the U.S. continue to expand market share due to strong core businesses and strategic reinvestment, with AI capital expenditures expected to persist through 2026 [4] - Small-cap stocks are anticipated to grow, particularly in defense, technology, consumer, and healthcare sectors, although higher volatility and liquidity risks necessitate superior active management [4] - In Europe, sectors like defense, energy, and finance show potential for outperformance, with a focus on navigating market fragmentation through quantitative strategies [4] - Japan's market is supported by mild inflation, stable monetary policy, and potential fiscal support from the new government, despite high valuations [4] - Emerging markets may outperform the overall market in 2026 due to favorable macro conditions, with current forward P/E ratios approximately 40% lower than U.S. stocks [5] Private Market Insights - The private equity market is experiencing increased transaction activity due to strong capital market performance and low financing costs, with a focus on value creation and operational stability [7] - LPs are expected to maintain interest in secondary markets, with S funds and continuation funds being crucial liquidity sources amid slow exit speeds [7] - There is a growing demand for growth equity financing as companies prefer to remain private for strategic flexibility, indicating a shift towards larger funding rounds [7][8] - The private credit market is expected to see increased demand for credit financing due to a favorable M&A environment, with private credit offering higher yields than public markets [8] - Infrastructure investments are anticipated to benefit from trends in AI, digitalization, and energy production, with opportunities in areas like the circular economy [9]

Core Insights - Cresset, a nearly $200 billion multifamily office and wealth manager, is expanding its presence in Atlanta and establishing a new office in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, by adding a wealth advisory team from Goldman Sachs [1][2] - The new team managed over $1.8 billion in assets at Goldman Sachs and will focus on ultra-high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and C-suite executives [2] - Cresset has recently completed a merger with Monticello Associates, which manages over $124 billion in assets, and the integration has been described as a successful cultural and strategic fit [3] Company Developments - The new team includes Jamie Gilbert, Jean Wright, and Max Ripans, with Gilbert taking on the role of managing director and wealth advisor at Cresset [4][5] - Wright will also serve as a managing director in private wealth client services, while Ripans will be an associate investment analyst [5] - The team specializes in tax and estate planning, as well as wealth management, and will split their time between the Atlanta office and the new Jackson Hole location [5] Industry Context - Cresset's expansion strategy mirrors that of other large Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) like Creative Planning, Mariner, and Captrust, which have made significant acquisitions to enhance their institutional and 401(k) practices [4]

Core Points - The company will host a live audio webcast on December 3, 2025, from 12:10 p.m. to 12:45 p.m. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Goldman Sachs Conviction List is a curated selection of stocks identified by the firm's research team as having a high probability of outperforming the market [1] Group 1 - The Conviction List reflects the research team's confidence in specific stocks based on thorough analysis [1] - The list serves as a strategic tool for investors seeking high-potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global risk-off sentiment affecting various markets, including declines in U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even gold. It highlights the investment strategies of former President Trump, who purchased significant amounts of corporate and municipal bonds during this period [1]. Market Overview - The article notes that the A-share market experienced a collective decline on November 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The total trading volume across the three markets was 1,946.17 billion yuan, an increase of 15.701 billion yuan from the previous day [16]. - Over 4,100 stocks in the market fell, with 63 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 23 stocks were locked, and 17 stocks had consecutive limit-ups, with the maximum being six consecutive limit-ups [16]. Sector Analysis - The lithium battery sector faced a downturn due to profit-taking and rumors regarding price increases being debunked. Additionally, there were reports of a price war in the energy storage sector, with prices dropping by 30% [12]. - The AI application sector saw some stocks rise against the trend, with companies like Rongji Software and Inspur Software performing well [16]. - The semiconductor sector remained active, driven by concerns over supply chain security due to changing Sino-Japanese relations and the upcoming IPOs of domestic companies [16]. Financial Support Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and 12 other departments issued a plan to boost consumption in Beijing, particularly focusing on financial support for automobile loans, including incentives for new energy vehicle purchases [23]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that the main funds saw a net outflow of 87.67 billion yuan, with the largest outflows occurring in the electric equipment sector. Conversely, sectors like media, computing, and communication saw net inflows [26]. - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Liou Shares and Huasheng Tiancai, while companies like Tianshi Materials and Yangguang Electric Power experienced the largest net outflows [26]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The article indicates that sectors such as media, computing, and electronics are leading in performance, while coal, electric equipment, and steel are lagging. The trading heat in sectors like defense, basic chemicals, and agriculture has increased, with some sectors like agriculture and non-bank financials currently at historical low PE percentiles [33].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has secured exclusive rights to negotiate the purchase of Burger King's operations in Japan, with a potential deal valued at approximately Y70bn ($452m) [1] - Affinity Equity Partners has held the master franchise for Burger King in Japan since 2017, aiming to expand the brand's footprint in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - Burger King reported a 4% year-on-year rise in same-store sales in Q3 2025, driven by a 3.1% increase at its locations [2] Group 2 - Burger King is implementing a multi-year "Reclaim the Flame" program, which includes planned investments of up to $700m before the end of 2028 for various improvements [3] - A joint venture with Chinese private equity firm CPE was announced in November 2025, with CPE owning 83% of Burger King China and RBI retaining a 17% stake [4] - The partnership with CPE includes a $350m capital infusion to support new restaurant openings, marketing, and menu innovation [4]

Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant increase in central-bank gold purchases for November, driven by a shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1] - Goldman's estimates indicate central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a notable rise from the 21 tons projected for August, suggesting strong buying momentum through year-end [1] Reporting and Transparency Issues - A large portion of central bank gold purchases remains unreported, with the World Gold Council estimating that only one-third of global central bank buying is reported to the IMF, down from approximately 90% four years ago [2] - China's official monthly disclosures show minimal purchases, with only 1.9 tons reported in August and July, and 2.2 tons in June, leading analysts to believe these figures do not reflect actual buying [3] China's Accumulation Strategy - Société Générale estimates that China could accumulate up to 250 tons of gold this year through trade flows, accounting for over one-third of global central-bank demand [4] - China's strategy involves minimal disclosure of gold purchases to avoid potential repercussions from the U.S. administration, as gold is viewed as a hedge against the U.S. [6] Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - The reluctance to report gold purchases is linked to a desire to prevent front-running in an increasingly illiquid market, with delivery timelines in the London Bullion Market Association extending up to eight weeks [6] - Despite a strong performance in gold prices, institutions are optimistic about continued outperformance, with Goldman projecting a target price of $4,900 for gold by 2026 [7]

Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant increase in central-bank gold purchases for November, driven by a shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1] - Goldman's estimates indicate central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a notable rise from the 21 tons projected for August, suggesting strong buying momentum through year-end [1] Reporting and Transparency Issues - A large portion of central bank gold purchases remains unreported, with the World Gold Council estimating that only one-third of global buying is reported to the IMF, down from approximately 90% four years ago [2] - China's official monthly disclosures show minimal purchases, with only 1.9 tons reported in August and July, and 2.2 tons in June, leading analysts to believe these figures do not reflect actual buying [3] China's Accumulation Strategy - Société Générale estimates that China could accumulate up to 250 tons of gold this year through trade flows, accounting for over one-third of global central-bank demand [4] - China's strategy involves minimal disclosure of gold purchases to avoid potential repercussions from the U.S. administration, as gold is viewed as a hedge against the U.S. [6] Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - The reluctance to report gold purchases is linked to a desire to prevent front-running in an increasingly illiquid market, with delivery timelines for gold reported as long as eight weeks [6] - Despite a strong performance in gold prices, institutions are betting on continued outperformance, with Goldman projecting a target price of $4,900 for gold by 2026 [7]

【导读】现货黄金遭遇猛烈抛售，失守 4000 美元 / 盎司，随后止跌回升 中国基金报记者 张舟 受美联储鸽派预期减弱等影响，黄金价格多日承压！ 11 月 18 日下午，现货黄金跌破 4000 美元 / 盎司关口，为 11 月 10 日以来首次，日内跌超 1% 。 不过，随后金价止跌回升。截至发稿，现货黄金报 4038.677 美元 / 盎司，近乎平盘。 | 最高价 | 50.500 | 博 | ಲ್ | | 0 | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低价 | 49.337 | 몰 | එ | | 0 K | | 0 | | +14 | 五日 | HK | | 高く | HK | 白天 | | | 叠加 | | | | | | 盘口 | | | 51.023 | | | | | 1.68% | 371 50.478 | 0 | | | | | | | | न्न 50.448 | 0 | | | | | | | | 18:09 50.447 | O | | | | | | | | 118:09 50.460 | 0 | | 5 ...