【导读】现货黄金遭遇猛烈抛售，失守 4000 美元 / 盎司，随后止跌回升 中国基金报记者 张舟 受美联储鸽派预期减弱等影响，黄金价格多日承压！ 11 月 18 日下午，现货黄金跌破 4000 美元 / 盎司关口，为 11 月 10 日以来首次，日内跌超 1% 。 不过，随后金价止跌回升。截至发稿，现货黄金报 4038.677 美元 / 盎司，近乎平盘。 | 最高价 | 50.500 | 博 | ಲ್ | | 0 | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低价 | 49.337 | 몰 | එ | | 0 K | | 0 | | +14 | 五日 | HK | | 高く | HK | 白天 | | | 叠加 | | | | | | 盘口 | | | 51.023 | | | | | 1.68% | 371 50.478 | 0 | | | | | | | | न्न 50.448 | 0 | | | | | | | | 18:09 50.447 | O | | | | | | | | 118:09 50.460 | 0 | | 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Future Fund of Australia highlights increasing risks of "more frequent and intense new shocks" to the global economy, prompting a shift in asset allocation towards gold, actively managed stocks, and hedge funds [3][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The Future Fund has raised its allocation to gold and other commodities to provide asymmetric protection against supply-driven inflation and stagflation [5]. - The fund's strategy includes reducing nominal government bond exposure, increasing inflation-linked bonds, and expanding investments in real assets like infrastructure [5]. - The report emphasizes that physical assets, particularly commodities, can offer strong hedging effects during high unexpected inflation periods [5]. Group 2: Global Gold Demand Trends - Global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year, reaching 3,717 tons, with a 41% rise in value to $384 billion [3]. - Central banks have shown a strong inclination to increase gold reserves, with 47% planning to buy more gold as a strategic tool against geopolitical and financial risks [7]. - In the first three quarters of this year, global central bank gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [7]. Group 3: Future Price Projections - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with current spot prices around $4,011 per ounce [3][8]. - Other financial institutions, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, have also raised their gold price forecasts for 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the precious metal [8].

中证报中证网讯（记者 葛瑶）11月18日，高盛资产管理发布2026年投资展望报告认为，在人工智能投 资持续推进的背景下，美国科技巨头仍将保持增长动能，但"七巨头"内部业绩分化或将加剧。此外，新 兴市场股票有望凭借估值优势和盈利跑赢整体市场。 在美股方面，高盛资管认为"七巨头"凭借强大的核心业务和战略再投资继续扩大市场份额，这些公司强 劲的盈利能力有望为进一步的增长奠定基础。超大规模企业的人工智能资本支出应在2026年持续。然 而，强者更强的趋势并非完全一致，这些大型企业迄今为止表现出的业绩同质性可能出现变化，差异扩 大。 高盛资产管理投资组合经理格雷格·图尔托（Greg Tuorto）表示："小盘股有望实现增长，尤其在国防、 科技、消费以及日益增长的医疗保健领域。然而，较高的波动性和流动性风险需要更优秀的主动管理能 力，以识别高潜力的变革型龙头，并且应对主题过热带来的风险。" 2026年，高盛资管认为新兴市场有跑赢整体市场的可能。其称，2025年，美元走弱、油价下跌、通胀缓 解以及美联储鸽派立场等多重宏观条件支持新兴市场。新兴市场股票目前的远期市盈率较美国股票折价 约40%，低于长期平均水平。鉴于新兴市场强劲 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its export growth, alongside insights into the economic conditions in **South Korea**, **Taiwan**, **Japan**, **Australia**, **New Zealand**, **Vietnam**, **Malaysia**, **Indonesia**, **Philippines**, **Thailand**, and **India** [1][2][17][26][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Export Growth**: - China's export growth forecast has been upgraded due to robust export momentum, with a projected growth rate of over 5% per year, outpacing global growth [1][2]. - The manufacturing sector remains competitive, particularly in emerging sectors like batteries and electric vehicles [1]. 2. **Economic Growth Projections**: - China's GDP growth is expected to slow gradually from 5% this year to 4.5% by 2028, with a current account surplus of 3.9% of GDP in Q3 [2]. - The country is on track to achieve the largest trade surplus globally in decades, posing challenges for other manufactured goods exporters [2]. 3. **Policy and Trade Relations**: - The next Five-Year Plan emphasizes manufacturing and self-reliance, aiming to reduce imports while increasing exports [1]. - A tentative trade truce with the US has provided leverage for China, particularly regarding rare earth minerals [1]. 4. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: - China's domestic demand is facing challenges, particularly in property and non-property investments, which have slowed significantly [12]. - The central government has less incentive to stimulate the economy aggressively in the short term due to near-target GDP growth figures [14]. 5. **Regional Economic Conditions**: - **South Korea**: Faces slow consumption growth due to demographic changes and household debt, with a need for technological advancement in exports [17]. - **Taiwan**: Exports have surged by 50% year-on-year, but investment growth remains low, indicating a narrow base of economic performance [17]. - **Japan**: Sluggish growth in Q3, with easing tariff uncertainties following a visit from US President Trump [21]. - **Australia and New Zealand**: Australia’s inflation has prompted a halt in rate cuts, while New Zealand is expected to see a growth reacceleration [22]. - **Vietnam and Malaysia**: Both countries reported strong GDP growth, driven by industrial activity and exports [26]. Other Important Insights - The report highlights the divergence in economic performance within the ASEAN region, with Vietnam and Malaysia leading in growth while Indonesia and the Philippines face challenges [26]. - The report suggests that the RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD, but this will not significantly impact China's export competitiveness [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in Taiwan and Korea indicates a narrow performance gap, with Taiwan at 47.7 and Korea at 49.4, reflecting broader economic challenges [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China and its regional counterparts.

高盛重申 2026 年底金价达 4900 美元 / 盎司的预期，还指出若私人投资者持续调整投资组合增加黄金配 置，金价有望进一步冲高。而今年迄今金价已累计上涨 55%，涨幅远超往年同期水平，印证了其看涨 逻辑的阶段性兑现。 高盛观察到央行购金热潮延续，各国为分散储备、对冲地缘政治与金融风险持续增持黄金。其数据显示 9 月各国央行购金量达 64 吨，较 8 月的 21 吨大幅增长，且判断 11 月大概率出现大量购金行为，这种 持续性的官方买盘成为金价的重要托底力量。 一方面，市场对美国进一步降息的预期强烈，高盛此前就强调降息周期中金价平均涨幅可达 22%，实 际利率下行趋势正持续为金价提供支撑。另一方面，黄金 ETF 资金流入显著增加，2025 年初前两月全 球主要黄金 ETF 吸金超 120 亿美元，创下 2020 年同期以来新高，资金面的助力进一步放大了金价上涨 动能。 日内收盘，沪金下跌1.33%，报收918.52元/克。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险 ...

格隆汇11月18日｜高盛将CoreWeave的目标价从120美元下调至105美元，维持"中性"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Market Overview - On November 18, the A-share market continued to adjust at high levels, with the lithium battery sector experiencing a significant pullback, while real estate and coal sectors also saw notable declines, dragging down the three major stock indices [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.22% to close at 48,702.98 points, and the South Korean composite index dropped by 3.32% to 3,953.62 points [2] - Domestic commodity futures showed a mixed performance, with coking coal and coke contracts leading the declines [2] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) rising by 0.06% to 116.530 yuan [2] Sector Performance - The AI application sector showed resilience, performing well against the market trend, while media and semiconductor ETFs led the market gains, with several ETFs rising over 2% [2] - Conversely, the Huatai-PB ETF and other related ETFs fell by over 4% [2] Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist, Liu Jinjun, suggested that adjusting investment portfolios based on overall policy trends could yield excess returns [4] - Shenwan Hongyuan's chief analyst, Fu Jingtai, presented a two-phase bullish outlook for A-shares, predicting a peak in early 2026 followed by a comprehensive market rally in the second half of 2026 [4] - UBS's head of China equity strategy, Wang Zonghao, forecasted a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors continuing into 2025 [4] Lithium Market Analysis - Recent reports indicated that the lithium carbonate main contract (LC2601) reached a limit-up price of 95,200 yuan/ton on November 17, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for lithium prices in November, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking after price surges [5] - The energy research team at New Lake Futures highlighted that the demand for energy storage will continue to increase within the lithium consumption structure, emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of rising lithium prices on storage demand growth [4]

高盛分析师莉娜・托马斯团队测算显示，9月全球央行合计净购金量达64吨，较8月的21吨实现逾三倍增长，环比激增 204.8%，这一强劲势头有望延续至11月。 现货金价在10月突破每盎司4380美元的历史峰值，即便近期出现回调，截至最新统计仍稳定在4068美元/盎司水平，年内累计 涨幅高达55%，远超全球主要资产平均收益率。 全球经济复苏不均衡引发的增长预期分化、地缘政治冲突导致的风险溢价上升、黄金ETF资金的持续流入，以及市场对美联储 宽松周期的提前定价。黄金与美元资产的负相关性持续强化，2025年美元指数较年初下跌7.8%，而黄金储备在全球央行外汇 资产中的占比已升至18.3%，形成鲜明的反向联动。 高盛集团最新发布的专项报告显示，在季节性购金需求淡季落幕之后，各国央行的黄金增持行动再度进入加速通道。 高盛预测，2024年第四季度至2026年期间，全球央行月均净购金量将稳定在80吨左右。高盛重申2026年底金价将攀升至每盎司 4900美元的目标位，如果私人投资需求持续升温，这一目标存在上修空间。 全球央行连续三年购金超千吨，2025年前三季度累计购金634吨，这一规模已占据全球黄金年产量的三分之一以上。高盛指 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices will continue to decline until 2026 due to a significant supply surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [1] - The forecasted average prices for Brent crude and WTI crude in 2026 are $56 per barrel and $52 per barrel, respectively, which are lower than current forward contract prices of $63 and $60 [1] - The supply surge in 2025-2026 is attributed to long-cycle projects that were delayed during the pandemic and OPEC's decision to lift production cuts [1] Group 2 - Starting in 2027, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to rebound as low prices in 2025-2026 will suppress non-OPEC production, and there will be a lack of new projects due to 15 years of underinvestment [2] - The projected prices for Brent and WTI by the end of 2028 are $80 and $76, respectively [2] - Potential scenarios include Brent prices dropping to the $40 range if non-OPEC supply proves more resilient than expected or if a global recession occurs, while a significant decline in Russian supply could push prices above $70 per barrel [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management released its 2026 investment outlook report, indicating a divergence in central bank policies across major markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The labor market is weak, leading Goldman Sachs to predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026 [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December due to improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce this direction [1]