Group 1: Investment Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that AI-driven innovation will continue to support investor optimism, while global central bank policies, new trade orders, and fiscal risks are creating a complex investment environment [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that disparities in global equity markets may widen, advocating for diversified global equity allocation and a combination of fundamental and quantitative strategies [1] - The report highlights that emerging market stocks have the potential to outperform the global market by 2026, with current forward P/E ratios approximately 40% lower than U.S. stocks, which is below the long-term average [1] Group 2: Private Market Insights - In the private market, Goldman Sachs Asset Management notes a favorable environment for new transactions and exit activities, leading to increased dispersion in private equity fund manager performance [2] - The increase in private market transaction activity will provide limited partners (LPs) with new data to assess the performance of existing and potential managers, aiding in capital allocation decisions [2] - The firm anticipates continued interest from LPs in secondary market investments that are attractive and have shorter durations compared to private equity investments, especially as data science, AI, and automation mature [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have raised questions about whether the strong upward trend seen this year is nearing its end, with prices dropping from a peak of approximately $4,400 per ounce to below $4,000, and experiencing a range between $3,900 and $4,205 [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows strong GDP growth, but rising unemployment and inflation present challenges for the Federal Reserve [3] - The unemployment rate increased from 3.4% in July to 4.3% in August, with significant layoffs announced, totaling 1.1 million in 2024, a 44% increase from the previous year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% to 3% in September, indicating inflationary pressures [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased from 4.77% in January to 4.14%, while the dollar index fell from 109 to 99.5, creating favorable conditions for gold [4] - Historically, gold prices tend to move inversely to yields and the dollar, making gold more attractive as a safe-haven asset when yields decline and the dollar weakens [4] Group 3: Goldman Sachs' Forecast - Goldman Sachs has reassessed its gold price outlook for 2026, predicting that the recent pullback in gold prices will be short-lived due to ongoing central bank purchases [6] - The bank reported that central banks bought 64 tons of gold in September, a significant increase from 21 tons in August, and expects this trend to continue [6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that central banks will average monthly purchases of 80 tons of gold from Q4 2025 to 2026, with a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6][7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by continued asset diversification by private investors [1][3] - Central banks are expected to purchase significant amounts of gold in November 2023, continuing a trend aimed at diversifying reserves to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [3] - As of November 18, 2023, international futures gold is priced at $4,037 per ounce, reflecting a 55% increase in gold prices year-to-date due to multiple influencing factors [3]

但油价的下跌将是短暂的。从2027年起，市场基本面将发生逆转。低油价将抑制非OPEC产油国的供应增长，而过去近15年上游投资的持续低迷将开始产 生显著影响。该行预测，市场将在2027年下半年转向供应短缺，推动油价进入上升通道，并预计到2028年底，布伦特原油价格将回升至每桶80美元的长期 均衡水平。 最后的供应浪潮：2026年油价为何下跌？ 高盛预测的短期悲观情绪，核心在于一个明确的数字：2026年，全球石油市场将面临每日200万桶的巨大供应过剩。 报告指出，这波供应浪潮主要来自两个方面。其一，是大量在新冠疫情前做出最终投资决定（FID）的长周期项目。这些项目因疫情而延期，如今正集中 上线投产。其二，是OPEC的战略性增产决策。高盛在模型中假设OPEC将继续其逐步取消减产的路径。 该行指出，近期全球可见石油库存的快速增加（过去90天内每日增加200万桶）已经证实了市场正处于过剩状态。 在供过于求的背景下，价格下跌成为必然。高盛预测2026年布伦特原油的平均价格将为每桶56美元，WTI原油为每桶52美元，这显著低于目前市场约62美 元和59美元的远期价格。报告认为，油价可能在2026年中期触底，届时市场将开始消 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management released its 2026 investment outlook report, indicating a potential divergence in central bank policies across major markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice in 2026 due to a weak labor market [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December, influenced by improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may lead to an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce this direction [1]

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report is that AI-driven innovations will continue to support investor optimism, with small-cap stocks expected to grow, and emerging market equities likely to outperform the overall market by 2026 [1] - The "Seven Giants" in the US stock market are expanding their market share due to strong core businesses and strategic reinvestments, which may lay a foundation for future growth [1] - Emerging market stocks are currently trading at a forward P/E ratio approximately 40% lower than US stocks, which is below the long-term average, indicating potential for narrowing this discount due to robust earnings [1] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - Investors need to assess recent macro signals, rising uncertainty regarding US fiscal stability, and the growth prospects of large capital expenditures in the AI sector as they approach 2026 [2] - The main challenge for investors lies in interpreting the intertwined signals, but opportunities still exist for fixed income investors who can actively manage their allocations [2] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from AI and digitalization, energy production and transmission, changes in global trade patterns, and upgrades to aging infrastructure, particularly in mid-sized markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may have purchased a significant amount of gold in November as part of a long-term trend to diversify reserves against geopolitical and financial risks [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its expectation that gold prices will reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, with potential for further increases if private investors continue to diversify their portfolios [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 55%, driven by economic and geopolitical concerns, increased inflows into exchange-traded funds, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, up from 21 tons in August [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant surplus of 2 million barrels per day in 2026 due to strong global supply (excluding Russia), leading to a decline in oil prices before mid-2026 [1] Price Forecast - The average price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 is revised to $56 per barrel and $52 per barrel, respectively, down from previous expectations of $63 per barrel and $60 per barrel [1] - Oil prices are expected to recover to long-term target levels by the end of 2028, with Brent crude projected at $80 per barrel and WTI crude at $76 per barrel [1]

过去三年，央行增持已成为推动金价飙升的关键动力。现货金价今年曾在10月突破每盎司4380美元的历 史高位，尽管近几周有所回落，截至本周一仍约报4068美元，年内累计上涨达55%。推动因素包括全球 经济及地缘政治不确定性升温、黄金ETF流入增加，以及市场押注美联储进一步降息。 高盛在报告中强调，央行"持续且高企"的购金行为将是未来数年黄金市场的核心支撑力量。该行维持此 前预测，即2024年第四季度至2026年，全球央行平均每月净购金将维持在约80吨水平。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团最新报告显示，在夏季购金淡季结束后，全球央行正重新加速买入黄金， 中国央行在9月向外汇储备新增约15吨黄金，推动全球官方部门当月购金规模大幅回升。 根据高盛分析师Lina Thomas等人的估算，全球央行9月合计购金约64吨，较8月的21吨增加逾三倍。该 行指出，强劲的购金势头很可能延续至11月，反映出央行持续多元化储备、对冲地缘政治及金融风险的 长期趋势。 高盛表示，随着央行购金态势延续、投资需求增强，以及美联储货币政策转向宽松，黄金在未来几年将 继续作为全球金融体系中的关键避险资产保持强势。 在此背景下，高盛重申金价将在2026 ...

Goldman Sachs tackled the “most important question for the U.S. equity market outlook” on Monday: whether the market is “correctly valuing the benefits from AI.” The answer is a qualified yes, a denial that company valuations are at “bubble levels,” and a finding that the market is, shall we say, excessively optimistic. The U.S. equity market may have already incorporated a significant amount of the potential long-term value generated by AI, according to a new analysis from the investment bank. Some “simp ...