【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【1月26日消息，上周美元指数大跌，贵金属大幅上涨】上周，美元指数大幅下挫，黄金、白银等贵金 属同步大涨。黄金涨幅达8.4%，白银涨幅升至14.4%，此前遥不可及的5000美元/盎司关口近在咫尺。 各大机构纷纷上调黄金目标价，高盛最新研报将2026年底黄金价格预测从4900美元/盎司上调至5400美 元/盎司。 原因是私人投资者与各国央行的黄金需求持续攀升。高盛预计，2026年各国央行每月将增持 60吨黄金。 叠加美联储降息背景，黄金ETF配置规模也将同步增加，推动黄金估值进一步走高。 ...

今天分享的是：2026年高盛宏观经济展望：增长、就业与物价 报告共计：25页 全球经济步入新阶段：2026年高盛展望揭示了哪些关键趋势？ 近日，高盛发布了对2026年全球宏观经济的最新展望报告。这份报告描绘了一幅全球经济增长稳健、但结构趋于复杂的图景。报告指出，全球经济正步入一 个"良性但复杂"的新阶段，主要经济体在增长、就业与物价等方面呈现出显著分化与新的互动关系。以下为报告核心内容的梳理与分析。 全球经济增长有望小幅超越市场预期。报告预测，2026年全球实际GDP增长率将达到2.8%，略高于市场普遍共识的2.5%。美国经济的强劲表现是主要拉动 力量，其增长预计将从2025年的2.1%加速至2026年的2.6%。这主要得益于前期关税拖累的减弱、新减税法案带来的财政刺激，以及由美联储降息预期和人 工智能投资热潮共同推动的金融条件宽松。与此同时，中国经济预计将增长4.8%，动力主要来自其"强大的制造业与出口引擎"，尤其是在稀土等关键资源领 域的主导地位和持续的成本优势，有效抵消了国内需求特别是房地产调整带来的下行压力。 然而，一个突出的悖论在于：经济增长并未同步带来劳动力市场的繁荣。报告强调，全球主要发达经济体 ...

展望后市，黄金长期上涨趋势获机构普遍看好。高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，理由是私人部门投资者和中央 银行对黄金的需求不断增长。高盛分析师预计，各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。各国央行已开始通 过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争夺有限的黄金。 （来源：财闻） 高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，理由是私人部门投资者和中央银行对黄金的需求不断增长。 1月26日，截至发稿，现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司，日内涨超1%。现货白银盘初再创新高，现报105.05美元/盎司，涨幅超2%。 | | | 东吴证券表示，2026年，在市场波动可能延续、全球央行持续购金去美元化的背景下，黄金作为具备长期保值功能和低相关性的资产，在资产配置中，更值 得稳健型投资者关注。 ...

现货黄金历史首次突破5000美元/盎司整数大关，距离其首次突破4000美元关口（2025年10月8日）仅过 去100余日。 上周五，全球贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻。在地缘政治不确定性持续发酵、以及市场对美联储年内降息 预期升温的背景下，避险资金大举涌入黄金与白银市场。现货白银价格盘中史上首次突破100美元/盎司 关口。 高盛分析师莉娜·托马斯（Lina Thomas）对第一财经记者表示，白银价格仍将面临"相当极端的波动"。 她表示，近期个人投资者通过白银表达对降息预期的交易动机，与伦敦市场库存偏低、实物流动性紧张 叠加，放大了价格波动幅度。 在政策层面，高盛判断美国对白银加征关税的可能性仍然较低，但如果相关政策逐步明朗，白银从美国 市场回流至伦敦、缓解伦敦库存紧张，反而可能引发价格阶段性回调；相反，如果白银继续留在纽约 COMEX市场交易（类似此前黄金取消关税后的情况），价格高位运行的状态或将延续。 她同时提到，近期白银大幅上涨也与中国和印度的实物需求增加有关。虽然从短期看价格已明显偏高， 但在现货溢价明显收敛之前，并不建议贸然做空。 从宏观背景看，本轮贵金属上涨并非单一因素驱动，而是多重风险共振的结果。 自2 ...

2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破 5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | C | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 5020.284 "# | | | 4981.309 | 总量 | | 0 | | +38.975 | +0.78% 开盘 | | 4988.170 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5020.440 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4988.170 | 播 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 | モ日 | 目K | 周Ｋ | 月K | 重多 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 5020.440 | | | | | 0.79% 卖一 5020.824 | | | | | | | | 买一 5020.284 | | | | | | | | 7:01 5020.060 | 0 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in bond issuance by major Wall Street banks, driven by the demand for financing related to artificial intelligence (AI) investments, with projections indicating that the U.S. corporate bond market could see issuance reach approximately $2.5 trillion in 2026, raising concerns about debt sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Wall Street Bond Issuance - Major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, have recently launched extensive bond financing plans, with Goldman Sachs' issuance being the largest in history at $16 billion [3][4]. - In January alone, over $35 billion in new bonds are expected to enter the market from these banks, reflecting a broader trend of increased corporate bond issuance in the U.S. [3][4]. - Barclays predicts that the six major Wall Street banks will issue a total of $188 billion in high-rated bonds globally in 2026, marking a 7% increase year-over-year [3]. Group 2: Corporate Bond Market Trends - The overall issuance of U.S. corporate bonds is projected to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, an 11.8% increase from $2.2 trillion in 2025, with a net issuance of $945 billion expected this year, up 30.2% from last year [5]. - The demand for high-quality dollar bonds has led to a decrease in borrowing costs, with the credit spread for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds at its lowest level since June 1998 [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are increasingly concerned about the high levels of debt being taken on by tech giants for AI infrastructure, with some turning to credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against potential downturns related to AI investments [7]. - The bond issuance trend reflects not only domestic financial needs but also changes in global dollar liquidity, prompting calls for enhanced macroprudential management to mitigate financial volatility from cross-border capital flows [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in bond issuance by major Wall Street banks, driven by declining borrowing costs and increased demand for financing related to artificial intelligence (AI) investments, with projections indicating a total issuance of approximately $2.5 trillion in the U.S. corporate bond market by 2026 [1][4][5] - Major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, have recently launched substantial bond financing plans, with Goldman Sachs' issuance being the largest in history for investment-grade bonds at $16 billion [1][2][3] - The overall corporate bond issuance in the U.S. is expected to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, an 11.8% increase from $2.2 trillion in 2025, with a net issuance of $945 billion anticipated for this year, reflecting a 30.2% growth from last year [4][5] Group 2 - The surge in capital returns by the six major Wall Street banks, exceeding $140 billion in 2025 through dividends and stock buybacks, is attributed to soaring bank profits and relaxed regulatory policies, which enhance corporate financing confidence [2][3] - The demand for high-quality dollar-denominated bonds is driving down corporate financing costs, with the current credit spread for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds being the lowest since June 1998, at just 0.73 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields [4][5] - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the substantial debt incurred by tech giants for AI infrastructure, as there is skepticism about the profitability of such large-scale capital expenditures [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's compensation for 2025 increased by 21% to $47 million, marking his highest pay hike to date [1][4] - Solomon's pay structure includes a base salary of $2 million and a bonus of $45 million, which consists of cash, carried interest, and shares [2][8] - In comparison, JPMorgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon's compensation rose by 10.3% to $43 million for 2025, while both earned $39 million in 2024 [1][9] Group 2 - The pay increase for Solomon is attributed to record management fees and revenue growth in Goldman Sachs' asset-management and banking divisions [4][8] - Goldman Sachs reported strong Q4 results, with profits exceeding Wall Street expectations, driven by increased dealmaking and trading activities [4] - The company's stock rose nearly 54% in 2025, outperforming competitors like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, although it lagged behind Citigroup [4] Group 3 - Solomon's retention award of $80 million, approved by shareholders, is set to vest in January 2030, with John Waldron viewed as his potential successor [5][7] - Waldron's appointment to the board occurred shortly after receiving the retention bonus, highlighting his rising prominence within the company [7] Group 4 - David Solomon has been with Goldman Sachs since 1999 and became CEO in 2018, succeeding Lloyd Blankfein [6]

周五，白银价格史上首次突破100美元/盎司，黄金同步刷新历史高位，逼近5000美元关口。 周五，全球贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻。在地缘政治不确定性持续发酵、以及市场对美联储年内降息预 期升温的背景下，避险资金大举涌入黄金与白银市场。现货白银价格盘中史上首次突破100美元/盎司关 口，黄金同步刷新历史高位，逼近5000美元/盎司。 高盛分析师莉娜·托马斯（Lina Thomas）对第一财经记者表示，白银价格仍将面临"相当极端的波动"。 她表示，近期个人投资者通过白银表达对降息预期的交易动机，与伦敦市场库存偏低、实物流动性紧张 叠加，放大了价格波动幅度。 白银破百 在政策层面，高盛判断美国对白银加征关税的可能性仍然较低，但如果相关政策逐步明朗，白银从美国 市场回流至伦敦、缓解伦敦库存紧张，反而可能引发价格阶段性回调；相反，如果白银继续留在纽约 COMEX市场交易（类似此前黄金取消关税后的情况），价格高位运行的状态或将延续。 她同时提到，近期白银大幅上涨也与中国和印度的实物需求增加有关。虽然从短期看价格已明显偏高， 但在现货溢价明显收敛之前，并不建议贸然做空。 与此同时，央行持续增持黄金、全球资产配置"去美元化"趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel's earnings report fell short of expectations, leading the market to reassess AI valuations and impacting overall market sentiment [1][3]. Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 285.30 points, or 0.58%, closing at 49098.71, with a weekly decline of 0.53%. The S&P 500 index rose by 2.26 points, or 0.03%, closing at 6915.61, with a weekly drop of 0.35%. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 65.23 points, or 0.28%, closing at 23501.24, with a slight weekly decline of 0.06% [1]. - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia up 1.53%, Microsoft up 3.28%, and Amazon up 2.06%. In contrast, Google fell by 0.79%, Apple by 0.12%, and Tesla by 0.07% [2]. - Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar significantly pressured the Dow, with declines of 3.75% and 3.36%, respectively [3]. Company-Specific Insights - Intel's stock plummeted by 17.03% to $45.07 after the company provided a quarterly revenue and profit outlook that was below market expectations, citing challenges in meeting AI data center demand for server chips [3]. - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies such as Apple, Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft are anticipated to have a significant impact on market perceptions regarding AI investment returns and corporate capital expenditures [7]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers Index for January was reported at 52.8, slightly above the previous value of 52.7. The services index was at 52.5, and the manufacturing index was at 51.9 [4]. - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for January was revised to 56.4, up from an initial value of 54.0, with inflation expectations for the next year at 4.0% and for the next five to ten years at 3.3% [4]. Commodity Market - International oil prices increased, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rising by $1.71 to $61.07 per barrel, a 2.88% increase. Brent crude oil futures rose by $1.82 to $65.88 per barrel, a 2.84% increase [7]. - Precious metals reached new highs, with spot gold at $4964.81 per ounce, up 0.6%, and silver rising by 7.0% to $102.89 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 14.60% [7][8].