证券研究报告 | 2026年02月06日 2026年02月07日 互联网行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 国内大厂争夺 AI Agent 流量入口，关注最具确定性的算力和大模型公司 1 月行情回顾：1 月恒生科技指数单月上涨 3.7%。同期，纳斯达克互联 网指数 1 月下降，单月跌幅为 4.7%。个股方面，互联网多数股票股价表 现不一致，港股方面，微盟集团、阿里健康、快手为本月表现前三的股 票，美股方面，哔哩哔哩、贝壳、知乎为本月表现前三的股票。从市盈 率看，恒生科技指数估值较上月基本持平，PE-TTM 为 23.84x，处于恒 生科技指数成立以来 37.28%分位点。纳斯达克指数估值较上月基本持 平，PE-TTM 为 41.29x，处于近 10 年 66.79%分位点。 人工智能动态：1）谷歌：推出开源医疗模型 MedGemma 1.5，在 Gemini 中推 出个人智能功能；2）OpenAI：推出 ChatGPT Health，用户年龄预测功能；3） Meta：推出新的即时通讯功能；Anthropic：将 Claude Cowork 扩展至 20 美 元 Pro 订阅用户；4）阿里：千问 Ap ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com has experienced a significant decline in stock value, falling more than 70% over the past five years, indicating potential concerns regarding its market performance and investor sentiment [1]. Company Analysis - The stock's performance suggests that JD.com may be undervalued, presenting a potential investment opportunity for value investors who focus on stocks trading below their intrinsic value [1]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of assessing macro trends and sectoral themes to identify cyclical and seasonal plays, which could be relevant for JD.com given its current stock trajectory [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy highlighted involves using predetermined screens such as valuation metrics and insider buying to identify attractive opportunities, which could be applied to JD.com [1]. - A deep dive into the fundamentals of JD.com is necessary to make informed buy, sell, or hold decisions, reflecting a thorough research approach [1].

Core Viewpoint - JD.com has experienced a significant decline in stock value, falling more than 70% over the past five years, indicating potential undervaluation and investment opportunity [1]. Company Analysis - The stock's performance suggests that it may be trading at a discount to its intrinsic value, which could attract value investors [1]. - The company operates in a competitive market, and its long-term growth prospects may be influenced by macroeconomic trends and sectoral themes [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy involves identifying cyclical and seasonal plays, which have historically provided substantial returns [1]. - A thorough analysis of valuation metrics and insider buying is essential for assessing attractive investment opportunities in JD.com [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging trend of "self-pickup" in the restaurant industry, highlighting its potential as a new growth opportunity that has been underestimated until now [3][10]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - The "online ordering and in-store pickup" model is becoming a habitual choice for office workers and young consumers, offering benefits such as cost savings, time efficiency, and better food quality [8][12]. - Many young consumers are not only motivated by saving delivery fees but also by the ability to control pickup times and ensure food quality [12][18]. Group 2: Business Opportunities - Some community stores have reported sales increases of up to 10 times, and certain specialty snacks have seen monthly self-pickup orders double, indicating a significant opportunity for businesses [9][40]. - Self-pickup is evolving from a supplementary option to a key strategy for businesses to address growth anxieties and enhance revenue [12][19]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - Despite the potential, self-pickup features are often underutilized, with many platforms focusing primarily on delivery and lacking dedicated resources for self-pickup [21][22]. - Some businesses have recognized the need for a new channel that optimizes costs and enhances brand visibility, leading to a shift towards self-pickup functionalities [16][17]. Group 4: Case Studies - A store manager reported that after integrating self-pickup, daily sales surged from over 1,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan, with online orders increasing from around 100 to 800 per month [31][40]. - Another restaurant saw self-pickup orders grow from 20 to over 200 daily, with a significant increase in customer repeat purchases [36][40]. Group 5: Future Implications - The self-pickup model is not just a new channel but a means to foster deeper connections between brands and customers, enhancing trust and loyalty [52][55]. - As self-pickup becomes a habit for more consumers, it could lead to a more integrated local service network, benefiting both platforms and businesses [55][56].

Core Viewpoint - The retirement life of JD courier Jin Yicai has sparked widespread discussion online, highlighting the financial stability and benefits provided by JD, which contribute to the accumulation of his wealth [1]. Group 1 - Jin Yicai's million yuan savings are attributed to stable salary, comprehensive social security, and JD's "Housing Plan" which offers interest-free loans, along with his frugal habits and prudent financial planning [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI development on e-commerce platforms, particularly focusing on the competitive dynamics between companies like Amazon, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, emphasizing the importance of consumer trust and value delivery in the retail sector [6][29]. Group 1: AI and E-commerce Dynamics - The daily token consumption in China is projected to increase from 100 billion at the beginning of 2024 to 40 trillion by September 2025, representing a growth of over 400 times [7]. - Major US tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, with Google estimating its 2026 CapEx to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double its 2025 spending [8]. - Amazon's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is $200 billion, primarily focused on AWS AI infrastructure, while Microsoft anticipates around $150 billion in spending [9]. Group 2: Competitive Analysis of E-commerce Platforms - Amazon's 2025 GMV is estimated at approximately $700 billion, with AI assistant Rufus contributing $12 billion in annual transaction volume, accounting for 1.67% of total GMV [11][12]. - The article critiques the effectiveness of AI assistants in enhancing user experience, suggesting that they often serve as high-level customer service rather than providing significant incremental value [17]. - Pinduoduo's business model emphasizes "lowest price" as a prerequisite for advertising, contrasting with Amazon and Alibaba, which rely on advertising revenue from brand merchants [20][21]. Group 3: Consumer Trust and Value Proposition - The article argues that platforms like Costco succeed because they prioritize consumer trust and value, contrasting with Amazon and Alibaba, which may not always align with consumer needs [22]. - The effectiveness of AI shopping assistants is questioned, particularly in their ability to deliver on consumer expectations for price and quality, with the assertion that they cannot change the underlying business models of platforms like Alibaba [22][23]. - The article concludes that the future of AI in e-commerce will likely favor companies that can maintain consumer trust and deliver genuine value, with Apple and WeChat identified as potential leaders in this space due to their business models [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - JD's subsidiary, Seven Fresh Kitchen, has made significant progress in its expansion strategy, launching in five cities and planning to cover all second-tier cities by 2026 [3][4]. Group 1: Expansion Strategy - Seven Fresh Kitchen has launched in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Harbin, with plans for further expansion in 2026 [3]. - The company has initiated a nationwide partner recruitment plan, focusing on key regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta [3][4]. - The shift in operational model allows for quicker store openings and reduces financial and human resource risks by adopting a light-asset model [4]. Group 2: Operational Adjustments - The operational model has transitioned from JD managing overall operations to a focus on supply chain and standards, with partners responsible for local operations [4]. - The company has updated its product offerings, including becoming the first online provider of elderly meal services in Beijing and planning to expand services to hospitals and schools [5]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - After six months of operation, the efficiency of the first store has improved significantly, with a reduction in staff needed to handle peak hours [6]. - The store has seen a 30% increase in orders since joining platforms like Meituan and Taobao [6].

Core Viewpoint - JD's Qixian Kitchen has made significant progress in its expansion strategy, adapting its business model to facilitate rapid growth and local partnerships, while also diversifying its product offerings to meet market demands [4][5][6]. Group 1: Expansion and Business Model - Qixian Kitchen has launched in five cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Harbin, with plans for further expansion in 2026 to cover all second-tier and above cities [4]. - The company has initiated a nationwide partner recruitment plan, focusing on three core regions: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, allowing for quicker store openings [4][5]. - The business model has shifted from direct management to a partnership approach, where Qixian Kitchen provides supply chain support and operational standards, while partners handle local operations [5]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Adaptation - Qixian Kitchen has introduced new product offerings, including a dedicated "Elderly Zone" for senior meal services, becoming the first online meal provider for elderly care in Beijing [6]. - The company is exploring service expansions into hospitals and schools, indicating a strategic direction towards community-focused dining solutions [6]. - The integration of supply chain capabilities into the food service sector is seen as a potential growth area, leveraging the booming elderly economy and the necessity of campus dining [6]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - After six months of operation, Qixian Kitchen has improved its efficiency significantly, with adjustments made to production and workflow processes [8]. - The store has optimized its staffing, reducing the number of employees needed to handle peak hours while maintaining high output, with 600 meals served during lunch peaks [8]. - The company has seen a 30% increase in orders since joining platforms like Meituan and Taobao, indicating successful market penetration and customer engagement [8].

Core Insights - JD's Qixian Kitchen has launched a nationwide partner recruitment plan to facilitate rapid expansion and has already established operations in five cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Harbin, with plans to cover all second-tier cities by 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Business Model and Expansion - The shift to a light-asset model allows for quicker store openings and reduces financial and human resource risks for JD [2] - Qixian Kitchen will focus on supply chain management and standardization, while partners will handle local operations and site selection [1][2] - The recruitment plan targets key regions including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, with a goal to extend to other economically active second-tier cities [1][2] Group 2: Product and Service Development - Qixian Kitchen has updated its product offerings, including becoming the first online provider of meals for elderly care in Beijing and launching a "Senior Zone" in some stores [2] - Plans are underway to expand meal services to hospitals and schools, indicating a focus on community-oriented dining solutions [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - After six months of operation, Qixian Kitchen has improved efficiency significantly, with the ability to handle 600 meal orders during peak lunch hours [4][5] - The store has adjusted its workflow and staffing, reducing the number of employees needed to manage operations effectively [5] - Orders from platforms like Meituan and Taobao have increased by 30% since joining, reflecting growing demand [4]

Core Insights - The first national rural subsidy event in 2026 was launched in Jinan, aimed at stimulating rural consumption through direct subsidies and immersive offline experiences [1] - The event featured over 100 products from more than 30 mainstream brands, including Haier, Midea, and Huawei, focusing on home appliances and 3C digital products [1][3] - The initiative is part of JD's long-term strategy to enhance rural market engagement, with a planned investment of nearly 30 billion yuan in rural areas by 2025 [5] Group 1 - The event attracted significant consumer participation, with many villagers actively engaging in product consultations and experiences [3] - JD's offline stores in Jiyang also participated, offering additional promotions such as a rebate of 200 yuan for every 3000 yuan spent, with some products available at 50% off [3] - The selection of products tailored to rural needs, such as energy-efficient air conditioners and integrated washing machines, aligns with national green consumption goals and villagers' quality of life aspirations [5] Group 2 - JD provides comprehensive services including delivery, installation, and recycling of old appliances, addressing common concerns of rural consumers [5] - The establishment of a permanent "JD National Subsidy Exchange Station" in Jiyang aims to sustain the momentum of rural offline consumption [5] - The successful execution of the "National Subsidy Down to the Countryside" event is expected to enhance the intrinsic motivation for rural consumption and promote market growth [8]