Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - Trade uncertainty is expected to persist, impacting corporate confidence, capital expenditure (capex), and the overall trade cycle [6][36] - High-frequency data is anticipated to reflect negative impacts on the growth cycle in the upcoming 2-3 months [6][36] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Negotiation Status - Vietnam is the only country that has secured a trade agreement, while negotiations with other economies remain unclear [6] - The US and China face significant challenges in reaching a comprehensive trade deal, particularly regarding transshipments and sectoral tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6][33] Economic Implications - The report highlights that if trade agreements are secured, the best-case scenario would be for tariff rates to remain at current levels [18] - If no progress is made, tariff rates could revert to levels announced on April 2, 2025, which would significantly impact various economies [18] Country-Specific Negotiation Updates - **China**: Current tariff rate is 42%, with ongoing negotiations regarding rare earth exports and chip design software [56] - **India**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with India emphasizing that trade agreements must align with national interests [56] - **Indonesia**: Current tariff rate is 15%, with a focus on securing a comprehensive trade deal covering critical minerals and energy [56] - **Japan**: Current tariff rate is 17%, with unresolved issues on auto tariffs and agricultural market access [56] - **Korea**: Current tariff rate is 16%, with ongoing negotiations to extend tariff pauses [56] - **Malaysia**: Current tariff rate is 8%, with limited updates following two rounds of negotiations [56] - **Taiwan**: Current tariff rate is 7%, aiming for a zero-tariff deal and increased US goods purchases [56] - **Thailand**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with proposals to reduce trade surplus with the US [56] - **Vietnam**: Current effective tariff rate is 20%, with commitments to remove tariffs on US goods [56] Tariff Rate Changes - The report indicates that the US trade-weighted tariff rates on imports from Asia have increased significantly, with potential further increases [13][14] - The emergence of a two-tiered tariff structure for imports from Vietnam highlights the US's focus on addressing transshipment issues [21][22] Economic Data Trends - High-frequency shipping indicators show a slowdown in activity, suggesting that the initial strength in trade may be waning [36][46] - Capital goods imports have held up, but there are signs of potential weakness in the coming months [36][41]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, reflecting early signs of milder inflation related to tariffs and emerging deflationary forces [1] - Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 index target for the next 12 months by 11%, citing earlier and deeper monetary easing by the Fed and strong fundamentals of large-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 index's expected returns for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months have been adjusted to +3%, +6%, and +11% respectively, with new target levels set at 6,400, 6,600, and 6,900 points [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that U.S. trade negotiations are moving towards a tactical escalation, with potential increases in tariffs affecting Asian economies [2] - Mizuho Securities notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, reflecting Saudi confidence in market demand rather than an intention to capture market share [3] - Nomura Securities suggests that clearer trade tariffs could help the market eventually rise, as new agreements may reduce uncertainty [5] Group 3 - Bank of America reports that improved Canada-U.S. relations and reduced tariff tensions are likely to benefit the Canadian banking sector [4] - OCBC Bank highlights that despite recent cooling measures in Singapore's real estate market, there remains potential for price and transaction volume increases [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by 25 basis points in July, with a terminal rate potentially dropping to 3.10% [8] Group 4 - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its cash rate in July, leaving the market to interpret future rate changes [9] - CICC notes that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a new era driven by active trading and structural changes in asset and funding dynamics [7] - Huatai Securities anticipates a turning point for IDC due to growing domestic and international demand for intelligent computing centers [8] Group 5 - Galaxy Securities identifies new investment opportunities in the upstream life sciences sector, driven by recovery in revenue growth and domestic substitution trends [9]

智通财经7月8日电，杰富瑞将摩根士丹利目标价从135美元上调至158美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing two significant risk events: the expiration of the equal tariff deadline on July 9 and the Senate elections on July 20, which could impact the yen and Japanese government bond yields [2][5]. Group 1: Equal Tariff Deadline - The deadline for the equal tariff suspension is approaching on July 9, with ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan stalled primarily over auto tariffs [5]. - If negotiations break down, the equal tariff rate could increase from the current 24% to between 30% and 35%, raising concerns about global economic growth and potentially leading to a stronger yen [5][6]. - Market participants are relatively optimistic about the tariff issue, with many expecting that the deadline may be extended and that the final tariff rates will not exceed current levels [5][6]. Group 2: Senate Elections - The focus will shift to the Japanese Senate elections on July 20, where the ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 out of 125 seats to maintain a majority [7]. - If the ruling party loses, the market may anticipate more aggressive fiscal stimulus, which could lead to an increase in long-term Japanese government bond yields [7]. - Unlike the UK, Japan's situation is different due to its substantial current account surplus, which reduces reliance on foreign investment and minimizes direct impacts on the yen's exchange rate [7].

上周，美国财政法案获得通过。摩根士丹利固定收益和主题研究全球主管迈克尔·泽萨斯（Michael Zezas）表示，无论投资者如何看待这项即将生效的立法最终会产生的影响，摩根士丹利所定义的本年 度市场前景四大关键政策因素——财政、贸易、移民和监管——中的一些重大不确定性现已得到解决。 另一方面，美国贸易政策的具体内容和方向仍然悬而未决。 本周三（7月9日），始于4月9日的对等关税90天暂停期将到期。摩根士丹利的基本预测是：美国的有效 关税水平仅会小幅上涨，但会伴随一些新的不确定性。 如果谈判停滞或失败，美国政府可能会决定有选择性地、分阶段地重新征收关税。例如，鉴于双边谈判 的复杂性和各行业之间的细微差别（正如摩根士丹利在此处强调的），欧盟和/或日本可能会面临更强 硬的立场。谈判进展缓慢可能会导致宣布提高关税，但延迟实施——为解决问题留下余地。这种情境也 与7月9日之前没有达成双边或区域框架协议的情况一致。 情景三：框架狂潮 在一个更良性的转变中，美国政府可能会宣布一些区域或双边框架——并非完整的贸易协议，但足以明 确美国有效关税税率的方向偏低，从而降低近期进口成本方向的不确定性。 虽然许多美国贸易伙伴可能会获得 ...

当投资者普遍押注关税不会升级时，摩根士丹利却在思考一个关键问题：如果7月9日的结果与预期不 符，市场将面临怎样的冲击？ 央视新闻指出，7月9日（本周三）是美国与各国谈判贸易协议的截止日期。据追风交易台消息，摩根士 丹利全球固定收益和主题研究主管Michael Zezas发布研报警示，尽管市场普遍预期美国关税政策不会进 一步升级，但7月9日关税暂停期到期这一关键节点仍存在多种可能性，投资者需要为不同情形做好准 备。 该行的基本预期是美国有效关税水平仅会适度上升，但会伴随一些新的波动，并分析了三种可能的情 形。 基本情形：延期策略 摩根士丹利认为最可能的情况是，白宫将以双边谈判取得了"进展"为由，延长对大多数主要贸易伙伴 的"对等关税"暂停期，同时宣布与某些贸易伙伴(包括越南)达成高层协议，并可能在未来某个日期对其 他国家提高关税税率。 "对等关税"暂停期结束，8月1日又要开始支付新关税？ 随着截止日期的临近，据环球时报5日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美政府7月4日起将向尚未达成贸易 协议的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为10%至70%，并计划从8月1日起正式实施。这一税率上 限（70%）远高于其4月份宣布的5 ...

Capital Strength - Morgan Stanley's net income was $4.3 billion in 1Q25[6] - Morgan Stanley's common equity was $97.1 billion in 1Q25[7] - The Standardized Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio was 15.3% in 1Q25[9] - The Supplementary Leverage Ratio was 5.6% in 1Q25[10] Liquidity - Average Total Liquidity Resources were $352 billion in 1Q25[15] - The Liquidity Coverage Ratio was 130% in 1Q25[13] - Average Eligible High Quality Liquid Assets were $276 billion in 1Q25[17] - U.S government obligations accounted for 48% of the $352 billion liquidity resources composition[19] Funding - Morgan Stanley's core funding was $1,188 billion, with deposits accounting for 42% in 1Q25[22] - The weighted average maturity of borrowings is 6.6 years[22] Lending Portfolio - Total loans and lending commitments were $439 billion in 1Q25[34] - Wealth Management (WM) loans were $163 billion in 1Q25[34]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：喜乐 2025年上半年，港股IPO市场以"冰火两重天"的极端分化态势迎来近四年最强复苏：42家企业登陆港交所，合计募资1067亿港 元，较2024年上半年同比激增688%。这场由A to H大盘股与新经济赛道驱动的盛宴背后，中介机构的角色正经历深刻重构 ——头部保荐机构以百亿级承销规模主导市场格局，互联网券商借散户打新狂潮抢占份额，然而破发率高企、绿鞋机制失效、 承销"蹭单"成风等乱象，暴露出繁荣表象下中介责任的缺位。 （全文数据截至2025年6月30日） 中资机构凭借A to H项目资源优势占据市场主导地位 2025年上半年港股保荐市场呈现中资机构主导格局。前5名中，共有3家中资中介机构，其中中金公司以13单保荐、214.6亿港 元规模位居榜首，保荐规模较第二名华泰证券（9单、133.9亿港元）领先近2倍。中资券商在保荐市场的崛起，一方面得益于 港股IPO中A to H项目占据半壁江山，中资券商对A股公司的资源积累更具优势；另一方面也与近年外资机构活跃度降低，外 资中介对海外投资者的覆盖优势削弱等因 ...

Group 1 - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing the 2025 forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel and the 2026 forecast by $10 to $70 per barrel, due to optimistic demand outlook [1] - Global oil inventories declined in Q2 despite increased OPEC+ production, driven by strong demand growth and a slowdown in supply growth from non-OPEC producers [1] - The bank has increased its global oil demand growth forecast by 260,000 barrels per day, primarily from OECD countries, which are experiencing unexpectedly strong oil demand [1] Group 2 - Barclays noted that while OPEC+ may accelerate the gradual removal of voluntary production cuts, actual production increases may lag behind due to pressures on some member countries to control output [2] - The report highlighted that OPEC+'s target production increased by 548,000 barrels per day from March to May 2025, but overall production remained stable, indicating better compliance [2] - The bank anticipates a global oil supply surplus of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with non-OECD countries' oil supply expected to increase by 1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, sufficient to meet demand growth during that period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish stance on U.S. Treasury duration and recommends staying long in curve steepeners [6][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a dynamic labor market with slower private payroll growth but a low unemployment rate, indicating lower potential growth and equilibrium rates, which may lead to more Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][9][32]. - The employment report shows strength in state and local government jobs, particularly in education, which contributed significantly to overall payroll growth [10][11][22]. - The report suggests that as market-implied trough rates decrease, U.S. Treasury yields are expected to fall, supporting a bullish outlook on U.S. Treasury duration [35][41]. Summary by Sections Labor Market Analysis - The June employment report indicates slower private payroll growth, with a tighter labor market due to a decline in the labor force participation rate [9][32]. - State and local governments added 80,000 jobs in June, with education jobs accounting for 63,000 of these [11][12]. - The report notes that fewer teachers left for summer break than anticipated, which may have artificially boosted the seasonally adjusted figures [18][22]. Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that lower potential growth will likely weigh on the equilibrium interest rate, suggesting that the Fed may need to cut rates more than currently expected [33][34]. - It is anticipated that the Fed's longer-run target rate may need to be adjusted downward over time [33][34]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends maintaining long positions in U.S. Treasury securities, particularly in the 5-year maturity sector, and suggests a UST 3s30s yield curve steepener [41][46]. - Specific trade ideas include maintaining long positions in UST SOFR swap spreads and SFRZ5 futures, with targets set for various instruments [46][49].