（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月26日，美股存储板块盘前走低，美光科技跌1.8%，闪迪跌1.6%，西部数据跌1.0%，希 捷科技跌0.75%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology is experiencing significant momentum, driven by the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, with a potential for further growth in its stock price [2][4][11] Company Performance - Micron's stock has surged over 260% in the last 12 months, outperforming other AI stocks [2] - Current market capitalization stands at $450 billion, with a price range of $390.76 to $412.22 for the day [3] - The company has a gross margin of 45.53% and a dividend yield of 0.12% [3] Market Dynamics - The total addressable market for HBM is projected to grow from approximately $35 billion last year to around $100 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of about 40% [6] - Strong demand for HBM is expected to persist, with supply constraints likely continuing beyond 2026 [6][7] Demand Drivers - AI applications are expanding beyond data centers to edge devices, including smartphones and vehicles, increasing the need for memory [3][4] - Developers of large language models are increasing context windows, which require more memory, specifically HBM [4][5] Earnings Potential - Analysts predict that Micron's earnings could nearly quadruple over the next two years due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [8] - The stock is currently trading at 12.5 times forward earnings, with a low price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, indicating potential for significant growth [9] Analyst Sentiment - Despite a strong performance, the consensus 12-month price target for Micron is 12% below the current share price, reflecting a cautious outlook among analysts [10] - 37 out of 43 analysts rated Micron as a "buy" or "strong buy," indicating overall positive sentiment despite the lower price target [10]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 最近，不少芯片设计公司在晶圆厂那里吃到了"闭门羹"，不少晶圆厂反馈：部分成熟工艺的产能已 经开始不好投片。然而，这并非传统意义上"缺芯"的简单回归，而是 AI 溢出效应引发的一场深刻 连锁反应。 AI 不只抢走先进制程与先进封装的资源，也通过电源与功率链条把压力传导到成熟节点：数据中 心功耗暴涨，带动 PMIC、功率器件、驱动等需求持续抬升，而这类芯片往往依赖 8 英寸或成熟 制程产能；当供给侧又出现缩减时，成熟工艺自然更容易出现投片变难、利用率拉满、价格修复的 连锁反应。此外，AI催动的存储市场回暖，正通过 NOR Flash 等基础器件的涨价，进一步抬高 MCU 与各类模组的综合成本。 而近段时间，晶圆厂的一些动作也是暗流涌动。台积电、三星加速收缩 8 英寸旧产线，硅片厂扩 产12英寸，力积电卖掉最先进的12英寸新厂。。。一系列看似分散的事件，背后其实指向同一个 趋势——2026 年的半导体格局，早已不再是简单的周期波动，而是一场关乎生存的产能重构。 理解这场重构的第一把钥匙，就是从一个看似"过时"的主角开始：8 英寸。 8英寸，巨头退场，利弊如何？ 在 8 英寸 ...

Core Insights - Micron's stock has experienced a significant increase due to excitement surrounding high-bandwidth memory chips, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in this segment [1] Company Summary - Micron is currently benefiting from heightened investor enthusiasm for high-bandwidth memory chips, which suggests a positive outlook for its product offerings in this area [1] Industry Summary - The market for high-bandwidth memory chips is competitive, and Micron does not hold exclusive access to this market, implying that other players are also involved [1]

Core Viewpoint - The storage sector is experiencing a significant transformation, shifting from a traditional data storage role to becoming a critical component in AI architectures, thus driving up stock prices for companies like Western Digital [1][3][26]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Western Digital's stock has surged over 60% in three weeks, reflecting a broader trend in the storage sector linked to AI developments [1]. - The traditional view of storage as a commodity is changing, with storage now seen as a core element in AI inference, leading to a reevaluation of its market value [3][5]. - The demand for high-speed storage is increasing due to the limitations of current GPU memory, necessitating upgrades to storage technology [6][12]. Group 2: Technological Shifts - The concept of "memory walls" is becoming critical, as AI models require vast amounts of data to function effectively, pushing storage to the forefront of computational needs [6][8]. - New architectures from companies like NVIDIA are emphasizing the need for faster storage solutions to match the capabilities of advanced GPUs [7][12]. - The rise of AI applications is creating a demand for storage that can handle high-frequency random read/write operations, further elevating its importance in the tech ecosystem [8][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Power - Cloud service providers are facing challenges in securing storage supplies, leading to a shift in bargaining power towards storage manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix [14][15]. - The scarcity of high-performance storage options is forcing cloud companies to pay premium prices to ensure supply continuity [15][16]. - This shift represents a significant moment of profit transfer within the industry, as storage manufacturers gain leverage over previously dominant cloud service providers [17]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Companies - Chinese storage companies have a unique opportunity to capitalize on the current market dynamics, particularly in the AI storage sector [19][20]. - The domestic market for AI applications is growing rapidly, providing a potential customer base for Chinese manufacturers to offer competitive alternatives to established players [21][22]. - Chinese firms are making strides in SSD technology, achieving parity with international standards, which positions them well to compete in the AI storage market [23][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current surge in storage prices may indicate the beginning of a new era in AI, suggesting that storage will become a fundamental asset in future investments [26]. - The long-term outlook for AI storage is positive, with related companies expected to maintain high growth potential, although current prices may be elevated [26].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,749.51 points, up 0.45% for the day and 4.37% year-to-date[5] - The Technology Index rose by 0.62%, with a year-to-date increase of 15.11%[5] - The total trading volume increased by 2.6% to HKD 240.87 billion[7] Key Stock Performances - Cathay Securities International (1788.HK) expects net profit for the year ending December 2025 to be between HKD 1.28 billion and HKD 1.38 billion, a rise of 2.65 to 2.93 times compared to HKD 351 million in 2024[7] - Cloud Financial (376.HK) reported insurance revenue of HKD 1.532 billion for the first half of 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year[14] - The stock price of Cloud Financial is recommended to buy at HKD 3.50, with a target price of HKD 3.90[13] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ten-year Treasury yield remains high at 4.2113%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns[24] - The U.S. dollar index is at 97.2110, down 2.2% over the past five days[24] Sector Insights - The energy sector faced declines, with CNOOC (883.HK) down 1.3% and PetroChina (857.HK) down 2.1%[7] - The insurance sector shows strong growth potential, driven by stable cash flow from core businesses like Cloud Financial's insurance operations[14] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider buying shares of Cloud Financial at HKD 3.50, with a stop-loss at HKD 3.15[15] - The target price for Tencent Holdings (700.HK) is set at HKD 680, with a current price of HKD 595, reflecting a potential upside of 14.25%[11]

2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。 这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。 HMC的失利 要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。 那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——"最低公分母"式 的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3 倍。 这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领 先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。 更致命的是时机判断。2013年AMD和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采 用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by companies in managing excess inventory, particularly in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the financial burden of storage and capital costs associated with unsold materials [1] - It emphasizes the services provided by a company called "Chip Superman," which has successfully served 22,000 users and offers rapid inventory clearance solutions [2][11] - The article lists various semiconductor components available for sale at discounted prices, indicating a significant inventory of over 50 million chips valued at over 100 million [10] Group 1: Inventory Management - Companies are incurring monthly storage and capital costs of at least 5,000, leading to potential losses of 30,000 after six months if inventory remains unsold [1] - The article suggests that companies struggling to promote their materials can seek assistance from Chip Superman [1] Group 2: Services Offered - Chip Superman has a smart warehouse spanning 1,600 square meters, with over 1,000 models and 100 brands in stock, totaling 50 million chips [10] - The company claims to complete transactions in as little as half a day, providing a quick solution for businesses looking to clear their inventory [11] Group 3: Product Listings - A detailed list of available semiconductor components is provided, including brands like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, with quantities ranging from 1,360 to 44,000 units for various models [5][6][7] - The article also includes a request for specific components, indicating ongoing demand in the market [8]

Core Insights - Micron has experienced significant stock growth, nearly doubling in value over the last three months with a 93% increase, and a 165% rise since last September [2][4] - The company is benefiting from a supply crunch in the memory subsector, leading to increased prices and a favorable market for major players like Micron [4] - Micron's latest earnings report indicates a $100 billion total addressable market (TAM) for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) expected to be reached by 2028, two years earlier than previously anticipated [5] Industry Dynamics - The compound annual growth rate for HBM is projected at 40% through 2028, which may alleviate concerns regarding the cyclicality of the memory sector [5] - Micron's fiscal second quarter guidance shows expected revenue of approximately $18.7 billion, significantly above the consensus estimate of $14.3 billion, with earnings per share forecasted at a midpoint of $8.42, nearly double the expected $4.71 [6] - The ongoing memory shortage is expected to favor Micron and its peers, as indicated by Intel's struggles with growth due to the same shortage [7] Valuation Perspective - Micron is currently valued as a high-risk, cyclical stock, trading at a forward P/E of 12 based on fiscal 2026 consensus [8] - Given the low valuation and persistent memory shortage amid the AI boom, Micron is viewed as a strong buy for 2026 [8]

别再盯着GPU和HBM高带宽内存了，AI推理浪潮正在让NAND闪存摆脱"强周期商品"的宿命，演变成一种高增长的AI基础设施资产。 据追风交易台消息，1月23日，摩根大通亚太区科技研究团队发布深度研报《半导体：NAND——更长、更强的上升周期》，宣告NAND行业进入 了一个由AI推理驱动的全新超级周期。与过去依靠智能手机和PC出货量驱动的周期不同，本轮周期的核心驱动力是企业级SSD（eSSD）。 摩根大通认为，随着AI工作负载从训练向推理转移，以及HDD（机械硬盘）在近线存储领域的供应瓶颈，NAND市场正迎来前所未有的结构性增 长。而投资者严重低估了NAND在AI推理时代的战略地位。 告别"周期诅咒"：10%的增长成过往，迎接30%的TAM爆发 长久以来，NAND行业一直被视为典型的强周期性大宗商品：技术进步带来成本下降，厂商疯狂扩产，随即引发价格崩盘。 但现在，这个逻辑被打破了。 摩根大通复盘了过去25年的数据发现，无论是过去20年、15年还是5年，NAND行业的TAM（潜在市场规模）年均复合增长率（CAGR）始终徘徊 在7%-12%的区间内。 然而，预测数据显示，在接下来的三年（2025-2027年），这一 ...