本文源自：金融界AI电报 花旗：将台积电目标价从1800新台币上调至2450新台币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI sector is experiencing significant growth, and there are numerous investment opportunities available, particularly in specific stocks that are well-positioned for the future [1]. Group 1: Key Companies in AI Investment - **Nvidia** is identified as the top AI stock for 2026, central to AI infrastructure with its GPUs, which are the leading option for parallel processing [2]. The company anticipates global data center capital expenditures to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, indicating strong future performance [3]. - **Broadcom** focuses on application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) rather than general-purpose GPUs, which can outperform GPUs for specific tasks at a lower cost, suggesting significant growth potential in this segment [4][6]. - **AMD** is gaining traction in the GPU market, forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% in its data center division revenues over the next three to five years, indicating a strong investment opportunity [7][8]. - **Taiwan Semiconductor** is the leading third-party chip manufacturer, essential for the AI buildout, making it a neutral investment option as it benefits from the overall growth in AI technology [9][10]. - **Alphabet** has shown unexpected success with its large language model, Gemini, and is expected to maintain momentum due to its strong advertising business [11][12]. - **Meta Platforms** is investing in AI capabilities for its social media platforms and exploring new products like AI-enabled glasses, which could provide new revenue streams [13][14]. - **Amazon** is expected to perform better in 2026, driven by growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS), which supports AI model training and operations [15]. Group 2: Emerging and Smaller Companies - **SoundHound AI** combines generative AI with voice recognition technology, showing rapid growth potential if widely adopted [16][17]. - **Nebius** is a data center operator focused on the AI market, with an expected revenue run rate of $551 million in Q3 2025, projected to reach $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, indicating substantial upside potential [18][19]. - **Applied Digital** operates a data center model that leases space to clients, providing long-term visibility into earnings through 15-year leases, representing a less risky investment with significant growth potential [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is experiencing a significant growth phase driven by AI, with sales reaching a historical high of $75.3 billion in November 2025, marking a month-over-month increase of 3.5% and a year-over-year increase of 29.8% [1][4]. Group 1: Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific region is the strongest growth driver, with a year-over-year increase of 66.1% and a month-over-month increase of 5%, reflecting full manufacturing capacity and ongoing supply chain restructuring [2][3]. - The Americas market shows a year-over-year increase of 23% and a month-over-month increase of 3%, driven by strong demand for AI computing power and data center investments [1][3]. - The Chinese mainland market maintains steady growth with a year-over-year increase of 22.9% and a month-over-month increase of 3.9% [1][2]. - The European market experiences moderate growth with an 11.1% year-over-year increase and a 1.2% month-over-month increase [2]. - Japan is the only major market showing a decline, with a year-over-year decrease of 8.9% and a month-over-month decrease of 0.1%, attributed to weak demand in consumer electronics and automotive sectors [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The growth in semiconductor sales is not driven by a single product line but rather by a synchronized expansion across all major semiconductor categories, indicating a long-term expansion phase centered around AI [1][3]. - Logic chips benefit from increased demand for AI training and inference, while high-bandwidth memory (HBM) faces supply constraints, driving up prices and shipment volumes [3][4]. - The automotive sector is seeing a significant increase in semiconductor usage due to the electrification trend, marking a new growth curve for the industry [9]. Group 3: Future Projections - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecasts global semiconductor sales to reach $975.4 billion by 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.5% [5]. - The long-term growth of the semiconductor industry is driven by five core dynamics: ongoing AI computing arms race, sustained capital expenditure in data centers, structural high margins from HBM supply constraints, recovery in consumer electronics, and the rise of automotive intelligence [5][6][7][8][9]. Group 4: Key Beneficiaries and Challenges - Key beneficiaries include NVIDIA, TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Broadcom, which are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI and advanced semiconductor technologies [10]. - Companies like Intel and Micron face challenges due to ongoing transitions and slower competitive positioning in the HBM market, while Japanese semiconductor firms struggle with weak end-demand [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market is showing strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points and trading volume exceeding 3 trillion [1] - The Hong Kong market is lagging, influenced by overseas events, particularly geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Mexico [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court's delay in ruling on tariffs is seen as a positive development for the market [1] Industry Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a strong investment theme, with China submitting applications for an additional 203,000 satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations [1] - The U.S. FCC has approved SpaceX's deployment of 7,500 second-generation satellites, indicating a competitive landscape in satellite technology [1] Company Developments - SanDisk has introduced a novel contract requiring full cash prepayment from clients to secure supply quotas for 1 to 3 years, benefiting the related supply chain [2] - New Sword Transmission, a key supplier for Tesla's humanoid robot, has initiated its IPO process, marking a significant milestone in the mass production of humanoid robots [2] Financial Highlights - WuXi Biologics reported a record high of 209 new projects signed in 2025, with a significant portion coming from the U.S. market [3] - The company has 945 ongoing projects, including 74 in Phase III clinical trials, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [3] - WuXi Biologics anticipates a 120%+ year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, with a total potential milestone payment of over $4 billion from collaborative projects [3] Technological Advancements - OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Health, integrating user medical records and health data to assist in understanding health reports and preparing for medical consultations [4] - The AI-assisted diagnostic services have been included in China's medical insurance framework, paving the way for more companies to apply for relevant certifications [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by key players in the AI computing industry such as Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow gaining over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by less than 2% [1] Economic Data and Expectations - The upcoming week is termed a "super heavy week," with the U.S. government set to release crucial economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][3] - Analysts expect a significant rebound in core CPI, with predictions ranging from 0.36% to 0.38% for December, compared to an average of 0.08% in October and November [8] - Retail sales data, referred to as "terrifying data," is anticipated to show a rebound of 0.7% in November, driven by strong online sales during shopping events [9] Labor Market Insights - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in job growth, with only 584,000 jobs added in 2025, the lowest since 2003, excluding recession years [5][6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, suggesting a "low hiring, low firing" scenario rather than a recessionary decline [6][7] Corporate Earnings Season - The earnings season for major U.S. banks is set to commence, with JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting on Tuesday, followed by other financial giants [4][10] - Analysts expect strong performance from these banks, with a consensus that the S&P 500 index will continue its bullish trajectory into 2026, potentially reaching 8,000 points [3][10] TSMC's Performance - TSMC's earnings report is highly anticipated, as it serves as a bellwether for the AI chip supply chain, with expectations for strong demand from major clients like Nvidia [4][12] - TSMC reported a December revenue of approximately NT$335 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a total revenue of NT$3.81 trillion for the year, reflecting a 31.6% growth [12][14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the U.S. economy's "soft landing" narrative, with expectations for continued growth in 2026, supported by favorable fiscal policies and easing inflationary pressures [7][11] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in net interest income (NII) and strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a strong rebound, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by key players in the AI computing industry such as Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, and Micron Technology [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow gaining over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by less than 2% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures saw a significant increase of over 3.7%, while WTI crude oil futures rose approximately 2.6%, following geopolitical developments in Venezuela [2] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases are anticipated, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are crucial for assessing the US economy's trajectory and inflation trends [2][3] - Analysts expect a notable rebound in core CPI, with predictions ranging from 0.36% to 0.38% for December, significantly higher than the previous months' average of 0.08% [8] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in the US labor market, with only about 584,000 jobs added in 2025, the lowest since 2003, excluding recession periods [5][6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, suggesting a "low hiring, low firing" scenario rather than a recessionary decline [6] Group 5: Financial Sector Earnings - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, are set to release their fourth-quarter earnings, marking the beginning of the earnings season [4][11] - Analysts expect strong performance from these banks, driven by net interest income recovery and robust growth in investment banking and wealth management [12] Group 6: TSMC's Performance - TSMC reported a December revenue of approximately NT$335 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a total revenue of NT$3.81 trillion for the year, reflecting a 31.6% growth [16] - The company's performance is critical for the AI chip supply chain, with expectations of continued strong demand from major clients like Nvidia and AMD [18] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Projections - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 companies will report an overall profit growth of 8.3% for the fourth quarter, continuing a trend of annual profit growth for ten consecutive quarters [15] - The outlook for the US banking sector is considered constructive, with expectations of sustained profitability and growth in 2026 [12]

Market Overview - US stock futures declined, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.7%, S&P 500 futures down 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down approximately 0.9% amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence following a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell [1][2] - The dollar fell by 0.3%, marking its largest drop in nearly three weeks, as the Federal Reserve faced grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department [17][18] Federal Reserve and Political Pressure - Powell stated that the Justice Department's subpoena is an escalation of President Trump's campaign to pressure the Fed into cutting interest rates, emphasizing that the Fed sets rates based on public service rather than presidential preferences [2][3] - Concerns over political interference in monetary policy have intensified, contributing to a rise in gold prices and a decline in the dollar [4] Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are preparing for updates on inflation, with consumer inflation data due on Tuesday, and producer prices and retail sales scheduled for Wednesday [5][8] - The market is largely pricing in no rate cut from the Fed this month, following a December jobs report indicating a cooling labor market without a sharp economic slowdown [5] Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions - Major banks are set to report earnings this week, with expectations of a record year for the industry and a projected 8.3% annual profit growth for S&P 500 firms [9][10] - Capital One shares fell 10% after Trump warned credit card issuers they would be in violation of the law if they did not cap interest rates at 10% [7][14] Geopolitical Developments - Markets are also monitoring unrest in Iran and potential military action from the US, which has led to fluctuations in oil prices as investors assess the impact on crude supply [6]

Company - Elon Musk announced that the X platform will open source its algorithm within seven days [8] - Allegiant plans to acquire competitor Sun Country for $1.5 billion in cash and stock [9] - Notable investor Michael Burry disclosed holding put options on Oracle [9] - OpenAI committed to investing $10 million to reach an agreement with advocacy groups on child safety measures [10] Industry - Vitol Group is set to ship the first batch of diluents under a supply agreement with Venezuela this weekend [8] - Walmart is collaborating with Google Gemini to enhance consumer convenience in product search and purchase [8] - The Canadian company Kepler launched 10 satellites to accelerate the development of a space-based communication network [9] - The oil plundering actions of Trump have become a significant challenge for OPEC [10] - Venezuela possesses vast oil resources and another critical asset that the U.S. urgently needs [10]

Group 1 - TSMC is progressing well with the development of its next-generation 1.4nm process, planning to start risk production in 2027 and gradually ramp up production in 2028. The company expects sales to reach NT$335 billion in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, slightly exceeding market expectations. Cumulative sales for 2025 are projected at NT$3.81 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.6% [2] - OpenAI is advancing audio AI technology and plans to release a more natural real-time voice model in 2026, aiming to replace screen interactions with voice. The company is also investing $1 billion with SoftBank Group in SB Energy to support its growth as a data center developer and operator [2] - Meta has reached agreements with nuclear power suppliers Oklo, Vistra, and TerraPower to potentially acquire up to 6.6 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2035, positioning itself as the largest nuclear energy buyer among tech giants to support its data center operations [2] - Merck is reportedly in talks to acquire cancer drug developer Revolution Medicines for between $28 billion and $32 billion, which would mark a significant transaction in the recent biotech merger wave and enhance its oncology product line [2] Group 2 - Geely Holding is likely to announce an expansion plan in the U.S. within the next 24 to 36 months, with brands like Zeekr and Lynk & Co potentially suitable for the U.S. market, aiming to accelerate its global layout and expand into high-end overseas markets [5] - BAIC New Energy has launched a pilot operation for the Arcfox Alpha S (L3 version) in collaboration with Beijing Mobility, with the first batch of vehicles expected to enter designated areas by Q2 2026, promoting the commercialization of autonomous driving technology [5] - China Resources Microelectronics has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with TCL Industries and Zhonghuan Lianxing, focusing on power devices, smart power modules, and MCUs to enhance competitiveness in the semiconductor supply chain [5] - Tencent's Chief AI Scientist stated that the company has a strong 2C gene and faces challenges in the 2B market in China, indicating a future exploration of differentiated development paths for 2B business [5] - Stone Technology has received approval from the CSRC for its Hong Kong IPO, planning to issue no more than 33.108 million shares, which will further expand its financing channels [6] Group 3 - Samsung Electronics' Galaxy S26 Ultra model will support eSIM and is expected to be released next month, while major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta are seeking memory supply support from Samsung and SK Hynix due to global memory shortages [11] - Toyota remains the top-selling car brand in Indonesia for 2025, while Tesla has surpassed Toyota in global market capitalization, reflecting ongoing market optimism for the electric vehicle sector and increasing pressure on traditional automakers [11] - Sumitomo Metal Mining is investing in a nickel wet processing plant in Indonesia to build a stable resource supply network, with Japan's nickel metal production expected to reach 106,000 tons by 2025 [11] - BMW Group expects global sales of 2.464 million units in 2025, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with a 12.5% decline in the Chinese market, while European and U.S. markets show growth of 7.3% and 5.0%, respectively [13] - LVMH is reportedly collaborating with Chinese beauty brand Mao Geping, although specific details of the partnership have not been disclosed, indicating its expansion in the beauty sector [13]

Market News - China will release December import and export data on January 14, with exports expected to grow by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in November, while imports are anticipated to decline by 2.9% [3] - The trade balance for December 2025 will also be published on January 14, with total goods trade from January to November 2025 reaching 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3] Commodity Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts to 16% starting from January 13, 2026, with the trading margin standard set at 18% [4] Energy Outlook - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on January 13, maintaining the WTI crude oil price forecast for 2025 at slightly below $69 per barrel [5] U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. will release December CPI data on January 13, with core CPI expected to rebound significantly, predicted at 0.36% by Morgan Stanley and 0.38% by Bloomberg, both higher than the average of 0.08% in October and November [6] - Key economic indicators including October and November PPI and November retail sales will also be released, with expectations of moderate PPI growth and a 0.7% rebound in retail sales for November [6] Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve will publish its latest Beige Book on January 14, indicating that government shutdowns and AI applications have weakened the job market, while rising tariffs and healthcare costs have increased business expenses [7] Earnings Season - The earnings season for Q4 2025 will commence this week, with major banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs set to report [8] Sector Events - The second China eVTOL Innovation Development Conference is scheduled for January 15-16, 2026, in Shanghai, focusing on the new commercial era of eVTOL [10] - The fourth Data Center Liquid Cooling & AI Chip Thermal Management Supply Chain Conference will be held on January 14-15, 2026, in Shenzhen [10] - China's first comprehensive law in the nuclear energy sector, the Atomic Energy Law, will take effect on January 15, 2026 [11] Individual Company News - Hangyu Technology announced on January 11 that it has repurchased 752,800 shares, with plans to sell them within six months [13] - Huadong Medicine's subsidiary has developed a breakthrough treatment for severe hypertriglyceridemia, which has been included in the list of breakthrough therapies by the National Medical Products Administration [13] - Jingfeng Mingyuan plans to acquire 100% of Sichuan Yichong Technology Co., with a key review meeting scheduled for January 16, 2026 [13] - TSMC has commenced research on its next-generation 1.4nm process, with risk trial production expected to start in 2027 [13] Lock-up Expiration - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, 23 companies will have lock-up shares released, totaling 2.434 billion shares with a market value of approximately 48.56 billion yuan [16] - The highest market value of lock-up shares released on January 12 is from Tianxin Pharmaceutical at 7.84 billion yuan [17] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks are set to be issued this week, with a total issuance of approximately 34 million shares and expected fundraising of 1.909 billion yuan [19] Market Outlook - The current market enthusiasm is driven by concentrated inflows from previously cautious funds, with expectations for continued momentum in thematic and small-cap stocks until after the Two Sessions [22] - Guojin Securities suggests that the spring market is likely to perform well, with a focus on AI investments and the recovery of domestic manufacturing [23] - Everbright Securities anticipates sustained market heat but warns of potential cooling as the Lunar New Year approaches, recommending attention to sectors like electronics and power equipment [24]