Job Market and Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market is expected to start 2026 sluggishly due to trade uncertainty, stricter immigration policies, and cautious corporate investment in AI, but a rebound is predicted later in the year by JP Morgan Chase & Co. [1] - U.S. policy changes and a tightening global memory chip market are putting South Korea's largest semiconductor makers under renewed scrutiny [1] Semiconductor Industry - China's push to localize its semiconductor supply chain is reshaping the global chip equipment market, adding pressure on foreign suppliers while increasing demand for domestic tools [3] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is under scrutiny following a powerful earthquake near Taiwan, raising concerns about potential production disruptions [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor plans to raise prices for its advanced chips despite heightened geopolitical tensions [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor secured a one-year U.S. export license to import U.S. chipmaking equipment into its China operations [8] Corporate Developments - Intel Corporation completed the issuance and sale of over 214 million shares of common stock to Nvidia in a $5 billion private placement [4] - Nvidia is reportedly in advanced discussions for another M&A deal aimed at acquiring talent due to pressure from Google's internal chip development [4] - TikTok parent ByteDance plans to allocate about 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) to Nvidia chips in 2026 [5] - Meta Platforms Inc. is accelerating its push to build practical, revenue-generating AI tools [6] - SoftBank Group agreed to acquire DigitalBridge Group in a cash deal valued at about $4 billion, marking a significant step in scaling global infrastructure for AI [17] Automotive Sector - XPeng reported strong December performance, delivering 37,508 vehicles in December 2025, a 2% year-over-year increase [12] - Nio reported a record 48,135 vehicle deliveries in December 2025, an increase of 54.6% year-over-year [13] - Tesla could struggle to follow up on a record third quarter, with predictions of weaker fourth-quarter deliveries [14] Artificial Intelligence Developments - South Korean telecom operator SK Telecom launched A.X K1, the country's first hyperscale AI model with 519 billion parameters [18] - OpenAI is shifting its first AI hardware project to Foxconn Technology Group as it accelerates plans for a consumer device [18] - Meta Platforms accelerated its AI push with the acquisition of Manus AI, a startup focused on autonomous agents [19] - VivoPower announced plans to acquire a hydro-powered data center site in Norway as part of its AI-focused digital strategy [20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus on AI**: The semiconductor industry in 2026 is heavily centered around AI, with strong demand for AI accelerators (XPU) leading to supply constraints in various components like CoWoS, memory, and logic wafers [1][20] - **Concerns about AI Bubble**: There are growing concerns among investors regarding the sustainability of AI investments, with discussions on whether the current AI boom is a bubble [1][20] Company-Specific Insights TSMC - **Top Pick**: TSMC is identified as the top investment pick due to its strong position in GPU and ASIC markets, which mitigates risks associated with potential AI bubbles [6][54] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth of 23% in 2026 and 20% in 2027, with a 20% EPS CAGR [56][57] - **Capex Plans**: TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure is projected at USD 47 billion, a 15% increase YoY, with a decreasing capex/revenue ratio due to faster revenue growth [3][56] - **AI Revenue Contribution**: Expected to rise from 14.4% of total revenue in 2024 to 27.3% in 2026 [59] MediaTek - **Temporary Headwinds**: MediaTek faces temporary challenges in the mobile segment due to high memory prices affecting its TV SoC and other products [7][73] - **AI ASIC Upside**: Anticipated upside from AI ASIC projects, with projections indicating that TPU will contribute significantly to MediaTek's earnings in 2026 and 2027 [7][73] Samsung Electronics - **Valuation Increase**: Target price raised from KRW 130,000 to KRW 140,000, driven by higher valuation multiples [13] - **Market Position**: Samsung is expected to gain market share in HBM, with demand projected to double in 2026 [50] SK Hynix - **Target Price Increase**: Target price raised from KRW 650,000 to KRW 750,000, reflecting improved valuation multiples [13] Micron - **Target Price Increase**: Target price raised from USD 270 to USD 330, driven by higher valuation multiples [14] KIOXIA - **Underperform Rating**: KIOXIA rated as Underperform with a target price of JPY 7,000 [15] UMC and Vanguard - **Underperform Ratings**: UMC rated Underperform with a target price of NT$ 32.00, while Vanguard rated Market-Perform with a target price of NT$ 90.00 [17][19] Geopolitical Considerations - **China's Memory IPOs**: The potential IPOs of YMTC and CXMT are significant as they mark China's entry into the memory market, although they are not expected to alleviate supply shortages in 2026 [5][49] - **Technological Lag**: China is projected to lag behind TSMC by approximately 5 years in semiconductor technology, with SMIC's recent advancements not matching TSMC's capabilities [5][53] Market Dynamics - **CoWoS and HBM Growth**: CoWoS and HBM shipments are expected to rise significantly, with CoWoS capacity projected to increase from 724K wafers in 2025 to 1,250K in 2026 [22][46] - **Memory Price Trends**: Memory prices are expected to normalize by late 2026, but strong demand driven by AI will keep prices at healthy levels [8][42] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for significant growth driven by AI, with TSMC, MediaTek, Samsung, and SK Hynix positioned favorably. However, geopolitical risks and potential supply constraints from new entrants in the memory market warrant careful monitoring.

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence presents significant challenges for TSMC, which is striving to overcome supply constraints in its 2nm process technology to meet market demand. TSMC plans to increase prices for its next-generation process starting January 1, but order volumes remain strong despite the price hike. By Q3 2026, TSMC's revenue from 2nm is expected to surpass the combined revenue from 3nm and 5nm processes [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Process Development - TSMC is expected to build up to 10 2nm fabs in Taiwan and the U.S., with plans to invest up to $28.6 billion in three new factories in Taiwan to meet high market demand. The 2nm capacity is fully booked through 2026 [1][2]. - The 2nm process began contributing to TSMC's revenue in Q3 2023, initially accounting for 6% of total revenue and rising to 15% in Q4. Currently, 5nm technology constitutes 60% of total revenue, but this is expected to decline as 3nm and 2nm technologies mature [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - TSMC's 2nm technology is being adopted by major clients, including Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, for their latest processors. The A20 processor for the iPhone 18 series is expected to utilize TSMC's 2nm process [4][5]. - Samsung is also advancing its 2nm process with the Exynos 2600 processor, which integrates CPU, GPU, and NPU, enhancing AI performance while reducing power consumption [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The competition in the 2nm foundry market is intensifying, with Intel and Samsung vying for market share against TSMC. Intel is promoting its 18A process, which is equivalent to 2nm, and aims to attract external clients by 2026 [7][8]. - TSMC remains the only foundry currently offering 2nm services to external clients, maintaining a significant competitive advantage in the market [7][8]. - The demand for TSMC's 2nm process is expected to continue growing, with analysts predicting that the number of projects based on this technology will exceed those based on 3nm [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and industries benefiting from self-control [3][26]. Core Insights - The demand for AI is driving significant investments in infrastructure, with major cloud service providers expected to invest a total of $600 billion by 2026, leading to substantial price increases in storage chips [1]. - The report predicts that storage contract prices will continue to rise by 30% to 40% in Q1 2026, with specific increases in DDR5 RDIMM memory prices expected to exceed 40% [1][26]. - The AI hardware supply chain is expected to see strong performance in Q4 and the first half of the following year, driven by robust demand from companies like NVIDIA and major cloud providers [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of AI applications in consumer electronics, particularly in the Apple supply chain and smart glasses, with a focus on enhancing processing power and memory [4]. - AI mobile applications are expected to see significant growth, with various manufacturers launching new products [4]. 2. PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, particularly for copper-clad laminates, driven by the automotive and industrial sectors, as well as AI applications [5]. - The report indicates that the PCB market is maintaining a high level of activity, with price increases expected due to supply constraints [5]. 3. Semiconductor Industry - The storage segment is projected to see a significant upturn, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 18% to 23% in Q4 2025 due to increased demand from cloud service providers [19][22]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is also expected to benefit from rising demand, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in light of export controls [23][25]. 4. AI and Computing Hardware - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI-related hardware, with companies like TSMC expected to ramp up production of advanced nodes to meet this demand [1][26]. - The AI hardware supply chain is projected to experience substantial growth, with companies actively expanding production capacities [1][3]. 5. Market Trends - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains positive, with various sectors showing signs of recovery and growth, particularly in AI and semiconductor-related industries [3][26]. - The report suggests that companies involved in AI hardware and related technologies are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing trends in the market [1][26].

Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Barclays raised the price target for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing from $330.00 to $355.00 and assigned an "overweight" rating [1] - UBS Group set a price objective of $330.00, while Sanford C. Bernstein reiterated an "outperform" rating [1] - Citigroup reaffirmed a "buy" rating, and Needham & Company LLC issued a $360.00 price target [1] - Seven equities research analysts have rated the stock with a "Buy" rating, with an average price target of $355.00 [1] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The company has a current ratio of 2.69, a quick ratio of 2.47, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19 [2] - Market capitalization stands at $1.66 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.78 and a PEG ratio of 0.91 [2] - The stock has a beta of 1.29, indicating higher volatility compared to the market [2] Group 3: Earnings Results - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported earnings per share of $14.32 for the last quarter [3] - The company achieved a net margin of 43.72% and a return on equity of 34.34% [3] - Analysts predict an EPS of 9.2 for the current year [3] Group 4: Dividend Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.9678, payable on April 9th, with an annualized dividend of $3.87 and a yield of 1.2% [4] - This represents an increase from the previous quarterly dividend of $0.83 [4] - The dividend payout ratio is 25.85% [4] Group 5: Institutional Trading - Westfuller Advisors LLC increased its position by 2.2%, now owning 1,551 shares valued at $434,000 [5] - BankPlus Wealth Management LLC boosted its stake by 1.6%, owning 2,291 shares valued at $640,000 [5] - Hedge funds and institutional investors own 16.51% of the company's stock [5] Group 6: Stock Performance - Shares reached a new 52-week high of $317.8230, with a trading volume of 2,007,683 shares [6] - The stock previously closed at $303.89 [6] Group 7: Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a leading pure-play semiconductor foundry, providing wafer fabrication and related services [7] - Founded in 1987, TSMC manufactures integrated circuits for fabless and integrated device manufacturers [7] - The company offers contract chip production across various technologies and products [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of generating alpha through independent investment strategies, focusing on a generalist approach across various sectors with a performance evaluation against the S&P 500 [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company manages a family portfolio primarily through a Self Managed Super Fund, aiming for alpha-generating investment ideas [1] - The typical holding period for investments ranges from a few quarters to multiple years, indicating a long-term investment strategy [1] Group 2: Research Methodology - The company builds and maintains comprehensive spreadsheets that include historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1] - The research approach includes monitoring industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, particularly during significant events like CEO changes [1] - The company prefers not to build DCF models for long-term projections, focusing instead on assessing past performance and the outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments, and interest rates [1]

2025年底，特朗普政府向三星电子和SK海力士发放了2026年度在中国工厂使用芯片制造设备的许可证，而对于台积电的情况却依然悬而未决。这一消息引 发了国际舆论的广泛关注，许多人开始猜测，美国是否在对华政策上有了转向。然而，深入分析后我们不难发现，这一战略调整并非简单的"转弯"，而是美 国对其出口管控策略进行了一种更为"精明"的操作。 在过去的几年里，伴随着地缘政治的变化，美方一直在完善其技术监管机制，以防止先进技术流入中国。2025年9月，美国取消了原本给予台积电、三星和 SK海力士等公司的"经验证最终用户"（VEU）豁免权，改为年度审批制度。特朗普政府解释称，原有的豁免机制存在"漏洞"，可能导致高端技术被不当转 移到中国。这一政策措施使得韩国企业面临前所未有的挑战。根据韩国半导体行业协会的数据，由于出口受限，三星在西安工厂的产能利用率下降了12%。 可以想象，面对日益严峻的形势，韩国企业无疑感受到了压力。虽然韩国政府努力与美国方面沟通，希望争取一些过渡期的缓冲，但实际上，这些努力却未 能根本改变管控的本质。反而，中方对此表达了坚定的立场，认为美国此举不仅是单方面打压别国，而且还严重危害了全球产业链的稳定。这 ...

格隆汇1月4日｜核心入选逻辑：唯一性与不可替代性——台积电是晶圆代工领域的绝对霸主，垄断了全 球90%以上的AI芯片产能；AI芯片咽喉——无论是英伟达的GPU还是谷歌的TPU，所有主流AI芯片均由 台积电制造。 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 讨论在美国生产芯片时，人们最关心的问题之一是这一过程的可持续性，因为对于像台积电这样的公 司来说，在美国生产会导致毛利率大幅下降。 台积电在美国晶圆厂运营成本大幅上升，但此次生产转移有着更为深远的意义。 特朗普政府特别重视"美国制造"理念，尤其关注半导体领域。因此，台积电和三星等公司加大了在美 国的投资，以构建更具韧性的供应链。这家台湾芯片巨头计划将其对美国供应链的投资增加至多3000 亿美元，其中包括在亚利桑那州建设晶圆厂、先进封装和研发设施。然而，根据分析师Jukan on X分 享并由SemiAnalysis汇总的数据，台积电在美国生产芯片将使其利润率遭受重大损失。 参考链接 | | | Taiwan | us | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Item | Unit | Fab 18 Phase 1-3 | Fab 21, Phase 1 | | Fab capex | US$ | 27,000,000,000 | 14,380,000,000 | | Wafer fab equipment | US$ | 22,950,000 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 英伟达斥资超过7万亿韩元（约合48.6亿美元）收购英特尔股份，再次撼动了全球晶圆代工格局。此 举被解读为英伟达正在实现供应链多元化的信号，此前该公司几乎完全依赖台积电生产人工智能芯 片。随着台积电正式宣布2纳米制程工艺量产，三星电子和英特尔也加入竞争，围绕大型科技公司的 晶圆代工竞争正迎来一个重要的转折点。 根据近期行业报告，英伟达以每股23.28美元的价格购入了214,776,632股英特尔股票，总投资额达50 亿美元，约合7.2万亿韩元。此次收购使英伟达成为英特尔的主要股东，持有约4%的股份。业内人士 认为，这笔投资并非简单的财务决策，而是一项战略举措。分析表明，此举旨在将英特尔的CPU设计 技术与英伟达的AI能力相结合，同时为未来在芯片生产领域的合作留下空间。 目前两家公司之间尚未签署任何代工合同。然而，鉴于双方通过股权投资建立的紧密联系，评估认为 英伟达未来将部分人工智能芯片生产委托给英特尔的可能性有所增加。尤其值得注意的是，这项投资 与美国政府正在进行的"英特尔代工重建"战略相契合。英特尔已从美国政府获得57亿美元的补贴，并 正基于这笔资金准备大规模生 ...