Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks experienced a collective decline, with notable drops in companies such as Huahong Semiconductor, SMIC, ASMPT, and Shanghai Fudan, reflecting market sentiment influenced by Nvidia's recent actions and TSMC's performance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) fell by 4.96%, closing at HKD 40.25 [1] - SMIC (00981) decreased by 4.12%, ending at HKD 51.15 [1] - ASMPT (00522) dropped by 2.74%, with a closing price of HKD 67.45 [1] - Shanghai Fudan (01385) saw a decline of 1.95%, closing at HKD 32.75 [1] Group 2: Nvidia and TSMC Developments - Nvidia has officially placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips with TSMC, supplementing an existing inventory of 600,000 to 700,000 H20 chips [1] - Reports indicate that Nvidia has informed clients of limited inventory for H20 AI chips and currently has no plans to restart production [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley noted that the release of H20 chips is beneficial for AI data center hosting companies but negatively impacts local semiconductor supply chain leaders like SMIC [1] - TSMC reported a net profit of nearly NT$398.3 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 61%, marking a record high for quarterly net profit and the highest growth rate in three years [1] - Analysts suggest that the global semiconductor growth remains optimistic, with potential price increases from leading foundries and a positive outlook for Q2 performance [1]

Group 1 - Chip stocks collectively declined, with Huahong Semiconductor down 4.96% to HKD 40.25, SMIC down 4.12% to HKD 51.15, ASMPT down 2.74% to HKD 67.45, and Shanghai Fudan down 1.95% to HKD 32.75 [1] - Nvidia has officially placed a new order for 300,000 H20 chips with TSMC, supplementing the existing inventory of 600,000 to 700,000 H20 chips [1] - Morgan Stanley indicated that the release of H20 is beneficial for AI data center hosting companies but negatively impacts local leading semiconductor supply chain companies like SMIC [1] Group 2 - TSMC achieved a net profit of nearly NT$398.3 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of nearly 61%, marking a record high for quarterly net profit and the highest growth rate in nearly three years [1] - The global semiconductor growth trend remains optimistic, with leading foundries potentially initiating price increases and a positive outlook for Q2 performance [1] - Given the sustained high level of global computing power investment, the performance of industry chain companies is likely to continue to reflect this trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant developments, particularly in advanced process nodes below 2nm, with major players like Intel, Samsung, and Japan's Rapidus making headlines. The competition is intensifying, and TSMC is positioned as a potential major beneficiary of these advancements [3][4][5]. Group 1: Intel and Samsung Developments - Intel's CEO emphasizes that the success of the Intel 14A process node depends on customer commitments and the ability to deliver reliable results for clients [3]. - Tesla has signed a $16.5 billion contract with Samsung for the production of its next-generation Full Self-Driving (FSD) chip, indicating a significant partnership and potential for increased future orders [3][4]. - The Samsung Taylor factory, which has been inactive for over four years, will see its first mass-produced product with the AI6 chip, marking a pivotal moment for the facility [4]. Group 2: Japan's Rapidus and Technological Advancements - Rapidus has announced successful trial production of advanced 2nm chips, aiming for mass production by 2027, which could disrupt the dominance of TSMC and Samsung in the advanced process field [4][5]. - The rapid rise of Rapidus is attributed to its collaboration with IBM, which provided essential patent licenses and technology transfer, enabling Rapidus to achieve breakthroughs in a short time [5]. - The 2nm chip developed by IBM integrates 50 billion transistors in a 150 square millimeter area, offering nearly 45% performance improvement over mainstream 7nm chips at the same power consumption [5]. Group 3: China's Semiconductor Strategy - Chinese companies are focusing on independent research and development in the semiconductor sector, achieving significant milestones such as SMIC's maturation of 14nm process technology [6]. - The strategy of "unauthorized innovation" is seen as a sustainable path for Chinese firms, contrasting with Rapidus's reliance on external technology [6][7]. - The market share gap between SMIC and Samsung has narrowed from 5.8 percentage points in Q2 to 3.3 percentage points in Q3, indicating competitive progress [7]. Group 4: TSMC's Growth Potential - TSMC's current market capitalization is approximately $1.25 trillion, with expectations to reach $3 trillion, requiring a 140% return rate [11]. - The upcoming N2 chip node is anticipated to significantly improve energy efficiency, reducing power consumption by 25% to 30% compared to 3nm chips, which is crucial for the smartphone and AI computing sectors [12]. - TSMC's management forecasts a nearly 20% compound annual growth rate in revenue starting from 2025, suggesting strong growth potential and an upward adjustment in market expectations [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and contradictions faced by the U.S. semiconductor industry, particularly in relation to the CHIPS Act and the role of TSMC, highlighting the internal chaos and global competition that the U.S. is experiencing in its pursuit of technological sovereignty [3][4]. Group 1: CHIPS Act and TSMC's Role - The CHIPS Act, initiated during the Biden administration, is now facing criticism and funding cuts from the Trump administration, revealing the complexities of U.S. technology policy [3]. - TSMC, as the largest foundry globally, is seen as a strategic asset for the U.S., receiving significant financial support for its investments in Arizona, including $6.6 billion in subsidies and $25 billion in tax incentives [3]. - Despite the financial incentives, TSMC's most advanced manufacturing processes (2nm and 1.4nm) will remain in Taiwan, indicating a strategic choice rather than a technical limitation [3]. Group 2: Global Competition and Subsidy Race - The U.S. has inadvertently sparked a global subsidy race, with major tech hubs investing over $150 billion in semiconductor manufacturing and R&D, raising concerns about potential overcapacity and profit compression [4]. - The original intent of the CHIPS Act was to reduce reliance on Asian supply chains and curb China's advancements in critical technologies, but the execution has led to a misalignment with these goals [4]. Group 3: Current Semiconductor Landscape - A 2022 survey by the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed that the most severe chip shortages were in traditional chips (40nm and above), which are primarily produced in Asia, indicating a disconnect between the CHIPS Act's objectives and the actual market needs [4]. - The political divide in the U.S. regarding semiconductor policy has led to uncertainty about the future of the CHIPS Act, with potential delays or renegotiations of subsidies, causing semiconductor companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4]. Group 4: Future Directions - The establishment of the National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC) in New York marks a new phase for U.S. semiconductor policy, focusing on advanced research in 1.4nm and quantum chips [5]. - Success in regaining technological leadership will require not only financial investment but also clear strategy and international coordination to avoid misdirection and execution imbalances [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports, with results from a national security investigation expected in two weeks, potentially affecting major semiconductor manufacturers and designers [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Investigation and Implications - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the investigation into semiconductor imports is based on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, focusing on national security implications [1]. - Trump has indicated that tariffs could range from 25% to 100%, with a likely implementation window after mid-August [1][5]. - Major semiconductor companies and industry associations are urging caution, warning that broad tariffs could severely damage the U.S. semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: International Trade Agreements - Trump stated that many companies will invest in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while also highlighting a recent agreement with the EU for a 15% tariff rate [2][3]. - The agreement with the EU includes significant investments and purchases of U.S. military and energy products, with implications for the automotive and agricultural sectors [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The implementation of semiconductor tariffs is expected to have profound effects on global supply chains and the U.S. economy, with skepticism from industry experts regarding the effectiveness of the policy in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. [4]. - An estimate from ITIF suggests that a 25% tariff could lead to a 0.18% decline in U.S. economic growth in the first year, accumulating to a GDP loss of $1.4 trillion over ten years [5].

Market Performance - As of July 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% to close at 3609.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.64% to 11217.58 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.86% to 2406.59 points [1] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor ETF (588170) increased by 1.85%, reaching a new high for the year during intraday trading, while the Semiconductor Materials ETF (562590) rose by 1.03% [1] - In the overnight U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.46%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.38% [1] Industry News - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the Trump administration has granted them an export license, allowing NVIDIA to begin selling H20 chips to the Chinese market. Due to strong demand, NVIDIA has placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips with TSMC, supplementing its existing inventory of 600,000 to 700,000 chips [2] - Micron has launched the industry's highest density radiation-resistant SLC NAND flash memory, designed for extreme environments such as space. This product has passed various rigorous standards and marks Micron's entry into the aerospace-grade edge computing storage market [2] - Anhui Jingmei Photomask Co., Ltd., the first semiconductor photomask company in Anhui, is set to be established with a total investment of 1.195 billion yuan from multiple investors. The technology assets for photomasks will be transferred from Jinghe Integration, and the company will focus on producing photomasks for 28nm and above process nodes [2] AI and Semiconductor Industry Trends - Huatai Securities believes that AI agents have become a "killer application" across various industries, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs while gradually changing business logic and organizational structures. The focus is shifting from "pre-training" to post-training and inference needs, with many companies leveraging foundational models like Deepseek and Qwen for practical AI capabilities [3] - China holds significant advantages in application scenarios and product cost reduction, which may shift the U.S.-China AI industry chain from parallel development to a competitive and cooperative state [3] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's semiconductor materials and equipment theme index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (59%) and materials (25%), which are crucial areas for domestic substitution [3][4]

Group 1 - US stock market closed lower, with Dow down 0.46%, Nasdaq down 0.38%, and S&P 500 down 0.3%. Notable declines included Meta Platforms down 2.46%, Tesla down 1.35%, Apple down 1.3%, and Amazon down 0.76%. Microsoft saw a slight increase of 0.01%, while Google A rose by 1.65% [1] - Trump issued a 10-day ultimatum for a Russia-Ukraine agreement, threatening to impose tariffs on Russia if not met, and stated he is not concerned about oil prices [2] - Nvidia has placed a new order for 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC, moving beyond just selling inventory [3] - AI startup Anthropic is set to raise up to $5 billion at a valuation of $170 billion, led by Iconiq [4] - OpenAI released a study on ChatGPT, highlighting its potential to revolutionize traditional education [5] - Microsoft is in deep negotiations for long-term access to OpenAI technology, with a potential agreement expected in the coming weeks [6] - The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth €40 billion as part of a trade agreement with the US [7] Group 2 - AstraZeneca reported strong sales of cancer drugs, with Q2 revenue increasing by 12% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [8] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted by 21% after appointing a new CEO and lowering its annual guidance, citing underwhelming sales of the weight-loss drug Wegovy [9] - Major events in China include US-China trade talks in Stockholm, with a 90-day extension on previously suspended tariffs [10] - The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points, indicating resilience in the global economy but cautioning about fragile prospects [12] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is inviting applications for stablecoin licenses until September 30 [13] - The Chinese government allocated 350 million yuan for disaster relief efforts in nine provinces [14] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation, effective August 1, aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, with a focus on enhancing cross-border payment systems [17] - The AI industry is seeing a push for standardized performance metrics for large AI models, with a workshop planned to discuss the framework [18] - Nvidia's new order for H20 chips is driven by strong demand in China, leading to accelerated capital expenditures from major internet companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba [19][21] - ByteDance plans to invest significantly in AI infrastructure, with a projected capital expenditure of 160 billion yuan by 2025, focusing on AI computing power and data center construction [22]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's semiconductor industry is experiencing a potential revival with the announcement from Rapidus about successfully trial-producing 2nm semiconductor core components, aiming for mass production by 2027, amidst discussions on whether Japan can regain its former global dominance in the semiconductor sector [1] Group 1: Industry Context - The Japanese government views the semiconductor industry as crucial for national economic security, leading to the establishment of Rapidus in 2022 with significant backing from major companies like Toyota and Sony, totaling 7.3 billion yen [2] - Rapidus faces a daunting financial challenge, with an estimated total investment of 5 trillion yen required to achieve 2nm chip mass production, while the government has pledged up to 1.72 trillion yen in support [2][10] - Japan's semiconductor manufacturing has lagged behind global leaders, with the most advanced process previously being 40nm, while TSMC has already achieved 3nm production and plans to start 2nm production by late 2025 [4] Group 2: Technological and Competitive Challenges - The success of Japan's semiconductor industry hinges on establishing a stable customer base for Rapidus, which is essential for sustaining production and further development [6][10] - Despite receiving external technological and talent support, Japan's semiconductor industry struggles with a significant talent shortage, as many top graduates are attracted to companies like TSMC [7][8] - The reliance on external sources for core technologies raises concerns about Japan's ability to create a self-sustaining semiconductor supply chain, with the lack of clear customer demand for 2nm products posing a risk of high production costs and reduced customer interest [11]

Group 1 - The Magnificent 7 index of major US tech stocks fell by 0.58%, closing at 182.42 points [1] - Meta Platforms decreased by 2.46%, while Tesla dropped by 1.35%, Apple by 1.3%, Amazon by 0.76%, and Nvidia by 0.70%. Microsoft saw a slight increase of 0.01%, and Google A rose by 1.65% [3] - Eli Lilly experienced a significant decline of 5.59%, Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares fell by 1.07%, and TSMC ADR decreased by 0.58%. AMD, however, increased by 2.18% [4] Group 2 - The overall performance of the tech sector showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing losses while others, like AMD and Google A, posted gains [3][4] - The fluctuations in stock prices reflect ongoing market volatility and investor sentiment towards the tech industry [1][3]

Group 1 - The Magnificent 7 index of major US tech stocks fell by 0.58%, closing at 182.42 points [1] - Meta Platforms experienced a decline of 2.46%, while Tesla dropped by 1.35%, and Apple decreased by 1.3% [1] - Amazon and Nvidia also saw declines of 0.76% and 0.70% respectively, while Microsoft slightly increased by 0.01% and Google A rose by 1.65% [1] Group 2 - Eli Lilly's stock fell by 5.59%, closing at $762.95, with a trading volume of 7.07 million shares [2] - Meta's stock price was $700.00, down by 2.46%, with a market capitalization of $1.76 trillion, reflecting a 19.75% increase [2] - Tesla's stock closed at $321.20, down 1.35%, with a market cap of $1.04 trillion, showing a decrease of 20.46% [2] - Apple's stock price was $211.27, down 1.30%, with a market cap of $3.16 trillion, down 15.43% [2] - Berkshire Hathaway B shares fell by 1.07%, closing at $476.56, with a market cap of $1.03 trillion, up 5.14% [2] - Amazon's stock closed at $231.01, down 0.76%, with a market cap of $2.45 trillion, up 5.30% [2] - Nvidia's stock price was $175.51, down 0.70%, with a market cap of $4.28 trillion, reflecting a 30.72% increase [2] - AMD's stock rose by 2.18%, closing at $177.44, with a market cap of $287.70 billion, up 46.90% [2]