Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price for ZTO Express from $24.6 to $23.8 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The earnings estimates for the years 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1%, 2%, and 2% respectively [1] - Key factors for the adjustments include a slowdown in industry growth in the second half of 2025 leading to a downward revision in package volume forecasts, an increase in average selling prices due to anti-involution, and the impact of other one-time items [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing a price recovery trend, supported by regulatory measures against unhealthy competition, particularly in Zhejiang province, which accounted for 16.9% of national express business volume in H1 2025 [5] - Zhongtong Express reported a 26.8% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, influenced by price competition, despite a revenue increase of 10.3% to 11.83 billion yuan [6] - The air transport sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring price increases, while short-term booking data shows signs of improvement [17] - The shipping industry is projected to see a boost in oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with specific companies recommended for investment [18] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics sector is seeing a robust demand, with a total of 164 billion packages delivered in July 2025, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase [27] - Major express companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing significant growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a 33.69% increase in July [7][27] Air Transport - In July 2025, civil aviation achieved a passenger transport volume of 71.82 million, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, and a cargo volume of 86.7 thousand tons, up 15.3% [11][57] - The overall seat occupancy rate for major airlines was 83.06%, slightly down from the previous month [60] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDTI index for oil transportation showing resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties [13][18] - China's port cargo throughput decreased by 2.82% to 26.135 million tons in the week of August 11-17, 2025 [81] Road and Rail - In July 2025, road freight volume increased by 3.28% to 36.99 billion tons, while rail freight volume rose by 3.35% to 4.52 billion tons [47]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese airline and logistics industries** in the context of the **2025 anti-involution campaign** aimed at addressing aggressive competition and stabilizing market conditions [2][4][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-involution Campaign**: The campaign is a strategic initiative by the Chinese government to stabilize pricing and enhance service quality across various sectors, particularly logistics and airlines, during a downward economic cycle [2][4][8]. - **Logistics Sector**: The logistics industry is experiencing regulatory efforts to curb over-competition, with price adjustments and guidance from authorities like the State Post Bureau and NDRC. This is expected to improve industry stability and profitability [2][3][18]. - **Airline Sector Challenges**: Airlines face unique challenges, including weak demand and a shift to rail travel, rather than just aggressive competition. The dominance of Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) complicates pricing regulations, as they control 70-80% of flight ticket sales [2][3][10][18]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The analysis maintains a cautious stance on Chinese airlines due to ongoing unprofitability, while expressing a positive outlook on logistics companies like ZTO, SF Holdings, and JD Logistics, which are expected to benefit from regulatory measures [3][4][18]. Additional Important Content - **Passenger Volume Trends**: Despite an increase in passenger volumes during the summer, airlines continue to face pricing pressures, with domestic air passenger volume rising by 2.7% year-over-year in July, while international passenger volume increased by approximately 16% [9][11]. - **Pricing Power Issues**: The average airfare for domestic economy class dropped by 7.5% year-over-year, remaining 5% below pre-COVID levels, indicating persistent demand challenges [11][10]. - **High-Speed Rail Competition**: The growth of high-speed rail (HSR) is diverting passengers from air travel, particularly for short-haul flights, exacerbating the challenges faced by airlines [10][12][14]. - **Regulatory Focus**: The logistics sector has seen a narrowing decline in Average Selling Prices (ASP) due to intensified regulatory supervision, which may serve as a model for potential measures in the airline sector, although challenges remain [18][21]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the contrasting dynamics between the logistics and airline sectors in China, emphasizing the need for regulatory interventions to stabilize pricing and improve profitability, particularly in the logistics industry, while the airline sector continues to grapple with deeper-rooted demand issues and competitive pressures.

因此，从成本端看，若后续快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，快递加盟商的成本增加，经营压力进一步提升， 而反内卷推动下的涨价将覆盖加盟商的新增社保成本，此次反内卷推动下的提价也具备一定的持续性。 各主要快递上市公司业绩弹性大。 公司方面，据国泰君安表示，核心公司主要包括顺丰控股圆通速递、中通速递、韵达股份。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 点评：今年7月，国家邮政局先后召开党组会议及快递企业座谈会，明确提出治理行业内卷式竞争。 国泰海通认为，此轮"反内卷"自上而下将继续深化，后续多地或跟进治理。"反内卷"短期将缓和竞争压 力，更重要的是中长期继续保障良性竞争，有利于行业自然集中。 国盛证券表示，从需求端来看，此次反内卷效果具有一定持续性。最高人民法院强调依法参加社保是法 定义务，新规自9月1日起施行。以每人日均派件500票、按各地标准缴纳社保测算快递小哥全员缴纳社 保后，对单票的平均影响在6分钱。 据红星新闻8月24日报道，电商重镇广东、浙江多家快递公司目前已对电商客户涨价。 其中广东是重点调价地区，每件调价幅度在0.3元至0.7元之间，同时还设定1.4元/单的底线价。有业内 人士表示，广东地区贡献了快递公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a narrowing decline in express delivery prices in July, indicating a stronger-than-expected effort to combat "involution" in the industry, leading to a temporary easing of competitive pressure. The outlook remains positive for leading express delivery companies with confirmed performance growth and potential valuation recovery opportunities in e-commerce logistics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year, with SF Express leading the growth at 33.7% [1]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 1,120.5 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% for the entire year [1]. - The e-commerce express delivery sector saw significant growth, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting year-on-year increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9 in the first seven months of 2025, up by 1.7 compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the market shares of leading e-commerce express companies were as follows: Zhongtong at 19.5%, YTO at 16.0%, Yunda at 13.2%, Shentong at 12.9%, and Jitu at 11.1%, all showing an increase from Q1 [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Revenue Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue in July 2025 grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while the average revenue per ticket decreased by 5.3% [3]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the industry's revenue increased by 9.9%, with a 7.4% decline in average revenue per ticket [3]. - The decline in average revenue per ticket is seen as a sign of reduced price competition, supported by regulatory efforts to combat "involution" in the industry [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the ongoing "anti-involution" measures will effectively ease competitive pressures in the industry, leading to a recovery in e-commerce express delivery profitability in the second half of the year [4]. - Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with a focus on regulatory strength from the postal administration [4].

Investment Ratings - Kuaishou Technology: HOLD, Target Price (TP) raised to HK$76.00 [5][7] - Bilibili Inc: BUY, TP set at US$28.00 / HK$219.00 [9][10] - ZTO Express: BUY, TP set at US$21.00 [13][14] - AAC Technologies: BUY, TP raised to HK$62.90 [16][17] - China Communications Services: BUY, TP raised to HK$5.15 [19][20] - BOC Aviation: BUY, TP raised to HK$83.90 [22][23] - MINISO Group: BUY, TP set at US$24.80 / HK$48.40 [24][25] Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology reported a 13% YoY topline growth and a historical high adjusted net profit of RMB5.6 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [5][6] - Bilibili Inc achieved a 20% YoY topline growth in 2Q25, with adjusted operating profit surpassing consensus by 16% [9][12] - ZTO Express experienced an 11% YoY growth in core express delivery revenue, although it missed consensus by 1% [13][15] - AAC Technologies reported an 18% YoY revenue increase, with a significant 62% surge in net income, despite some misses on expectations [16][18] - China Communications Services saw a 3.4% YoY revenue increase, with non-telco and international sales growing by 12.6% YoY [19][21] - BOC Aviation's total revenue increased by 5.8% YoY, with a 20% YoY rise in core net profit [22][23] - MINISO Group's revenue grew by 23% YoY, reflecting positive developments in various markets [24][26] Summary by Company Kuaishou Technology - 2Q25 topline growth of 13% YoY and adjusted net profit of RMB5.6 billion, beating consensus by 2% and 11% respectively [5][6] - AI strategies are enhancing monetization and efficiency, despite potential challenges in 2H25 [6][7] Bilibili Inc - 2Q25 revenue growth of 20% YoY met consensus, with adjusted operating profit exceeding expectations [9][12] - Anticipated sustainable profitability growth driven by diversified revenue streams [9][10] ZTO Express - Core express delivery revenue grew 11% YoY, but missed consensus by 1% [13][15] - Adjusted FY2025 parcel volume guidance reflects industry challenges [14] AAC Technologies - Revenue increased 18% YoY to RMB13 billion, with net income surging 62% [16][18] - Management's optimistic outlook for 2H25 suggests potential margin recovery [17] China Communications Services - 1H25 net profit increased by 0.2% YoY, with total revenue up 3.4% YoY [19][21] - Growth in non-telco and international sales indicates strong demand for digital infrastructure [20] BOC Aviation - Total revenue and other income rose 5.8% YoY, with core net profit increasing by 20% [22][23] - Attractive dividend yield and solid business model support investment thesis [22] MINISO Group - 2Q25 revenue growth of 23% YoY, exceeding guidance [24][26] - Positive developments in IP strategy and customer engagement [25]

国泰海通主要观点如下： 7月价格降幅收窄，快递"反内卷"力度超预期，短期竞争压力趋缓，中长期继续保障良性竞争 7月快递件量同比+15.1%;顺丰深化落实激活经营，业务量同比+33.7%，增速持续领跑 1)全行业：2025年7月全国快递企业件量164.0亿件，同比+15.1%;2025年1-7月件量1120.5亿件，同比 +18.7%。小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷，共同驱动2025年前7个月件量增速超过邮管局对 2025年全年件量增速超8%的预测。2)电商快递：圆通/韵达/申通2025年7月业务量分别同比 +20.8%/+7.6%/+11.9%;1-7月业务量分别同比+21.6%/+15.1%/+19.3%。3)直营快递：顺丰2025年7月业务 量同比+33.7%;1-7月业务量同比+26.9%，得益于落实激活经营策略，加大对前线业务的授权与激励，顺 丰件量增速3-7月连续领跑行业。 行业集中度持续集中，头部公司Q2市场份额环比提高 2022年初到2024年末，由于政策监管下价格竞争相对温和，份额向头部集中较缓慢。1)全行业：2025年 1-7月快递行业CR8为86.9，同比提升1.7，反映出2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles in Shenmu City marks a significant step towards the intelligent transformation of the logistics industry, enhancing efficiency and service quality in package delivery. Group 1: Autonomous Delivery Vehicles - Autonomous delivery vehicles are now operating in Shenmu City, capable of navigating streets without human drivers and delivering packages to various points [1][3]. - These vehicles have a cargo capacity of 6 cubic meters, allowing them to carry 600 to 700 packages at once, equivalent to the load of three traditional delivery tricycles [3]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - Zhongtong Express has implemented two autonomous delivery vehicles, which deliver over 2,000 packages daily to three locations, significantly reducing delivery time and costs compared to manual delivery [5][6]. - YTO Express has also deployed an autonomous delivery vehicle for specific cargo transfers, currently in trial operation, with a maximum daily transport capacity of 700 packages [8][10]. Group 3: Technology and Monitoring - The autonomous delivery vehicles are equipped with multiple high-definition cameras and millimeter-wave radar, enabling 360-degree environmental awareness and precise recognition of pedestrians, vehicles, and traffic signals [8]. - The vehicles can travel up to 150 kilometers on a single charge, sufficient for two days of operations, and are monitored in real-time by staff to ensure safety [8]. Group 4: Impact on Logistics - The arrival of autonomous delivery vehicles has streamlined operations at delivery stations, improving package transfer efficiency and enhancing the overall delivery experience for residents [10]. - The integration of these vehicles addresses challenges such as the difficulty in hiring truck drivers, while also providing a more efficient service to the community [10].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express reported its Q2 2025 earnings, achieving a revenue of 11.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while adjusted net profit was 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, meeting expectations [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company handled 9.847 billion parcels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, indicating a recovery in parcel volume growth [2] - The adjusted net profit of 2.053 billion yuan in Q2 represents a decline of 27% year-on-year, with profit per parcel dropping to 0.21 yuan, down 0.12 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of price wars [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price increase driven by a reversal of the previous competitive environment, with both top-down and bottom-up pressures for price hikes [2] - The linkage between Guangdong and Yiwu demonstrates a commitment to eliminating price disparities, which is expected to support delivery fees and stabilize the industry [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting adjusted net profits of 8.993 billion, 9.527 billion, and 10.689 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11%, 6%, and 12% [2] - The average valuation of comparable companies in the industry is higher than that of ZTO Express, leading to a maintained "buy" rating despite the downward adjustment in profit expectations [2]

Core Insights - Zhongtong Express reported a revenue of 11.83 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.8% to 2.05 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue Analysis - The revenue growth of 10.3% in Q2 2025 was driven by an increase in business volume, which reached 9.85 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. However, the average revenue per parcel decreased by 4.7% to 1.18 yuan due to increased subsidies and lighter parcel weights [1][2] - The market share of Zhongtong Express was 19.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6 percentage points [1] Cost and Profitability - The core cost per parcel decreased by approximately 0.07 yuan, with transportation costs down by 0.06 yuan to 0.33 yuan, attributed to economies of scale and lower oil prices. However, the overall cost per parcel increased by 9% to 0.89 yuan due to rising other costs [2] - The gross margin fell by 8.9 percentage points to 24.9%, and the adjusted net margin also decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 17.3% due to a larger decline in revenue per parcel compared to costs [2] Future Outlook - The company has revised its full-year parcel volume growth target to between 38.8 billion and 40.1 billion parcels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%-18%, down from the previous estimate of 20%-24% [2] - The board approved a mid-term dividend of $0.30 per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [2] Profit Forecast and Rating - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 9 billion yuan, 9.7 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan respectively, with a "Buy" rating upheld [2]