Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913.SZ) with a target price based on a PE ratio of 8 for 2025 and 16 for 2026, corresponding to a closing price of 15.66 yuan per share on January 29, 2026 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.6 to 10.3 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.9% to 52.2%, with asset disposal gains contributing approximately 8.5 billion yuan to pre-tax profit [2][9]. - The motorcycle sales volume is projected to decline, with a total of 386,000 units sold in 2025, down 12.3% year-on-year, impacting operational profits despite the increase in asset disposal gains [9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product definition capabilities and has seen robust growth in the export of large-displacement motorcycles, with a 15.3% increase in export volume for 2025 [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to decrease to 5.482 billion yuan in 2025, a decline of 9.1% from 2024, followed by a recovery to 6.546 billion yuan in 2026 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 1.004 billion yuan for 2025, with a significant drop to 510 million yuan in 2026, before rebounding to 581 million yuan in 2027 [3][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.91 yuan in 2025, dropping to 0.97 yuan in 2026, and recovering to 1.10 yuan in 2027 [3][10]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched several high-end motorcycle models in 2025, including the 800RS and 900, which have received positive market reception, indicating improved product definition capabilities [9]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle is expanding its all-terrain vehicle (ATV) product line, with two ATV models already in mass production and additional models in development [9]. - The internationalization strategy remains a top priority, with the company establishing subsidiaries in key markets such as the USA, Italy, and Indonesia, and expanding its QJMOTOR brand across over 130 countries [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913.SZ) with a target price based on a PE ratio of 8 for 2025 and 16 for 2026, corresponding to a closing price of 15.66 yuan per share on January 29, 2026 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.6 to 10.3 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.9% to 52.2%, with asset disposal gains contributing approximately 8.5 billion yuan to pre-tax profits [2][9]. - The motorcycle sales volume is projected to decline, with a total of 386,000 units sold in 2025, down 12.3% year-on-year, impacting operational profits despite the increase in asset disposal gains [9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product definition capabilities and has seen robust growth in exports of high-displacement motorcycles, with a 15.3% increase in export volume for 2025 [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to decrease to 5.482 billion yuan in 2025, a decline of 9.1% from 2024, before rebounding to 6.546 billion yuan in 2026 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 1.004 billion yuan for 2025, with a significant drop to 510 million yuan in 2026, followed by a recovery to 581 million yuan in 2027 [3][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.91 yuan in 2025, dropping to 0.97 yuan in 2026, and recovering to 1.10 yuan in 2027 [3][10]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched several high-end motorcycle models in 2025, including the 800RS and 900, which have received positive market reception, indicating strong product definition capabilities [9]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle is expanding its all-terrain vehicle (ATV) product line, with two ATV models already in mass production and additional models in development [9]. - The internationalization strategy remains a top priority, with the company establishing subsidiaries in key markets such as the USA, Italy, and Indonesia, and expanding its QJMOTOR brand across over 130 countries [9].

资产配置系列报告 百年浮沉，商品距离"大牛市"还缺什么？ glmszqdatemark 风险提示：历史经验不能直接作为投资建议；历史复盘的结论可能存在偏差。 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 陶川 执业证书： S0590525110006 邮箱： taochuan@glms.com.cn 分析师 邵翔 执业证书： S0590525120004 邮箱： shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 | 目录 | | --- | 针对大宗商品的长周期复盘研究。本报告主要对商品 20 年以上的长周期进行复 盘研究，因此重点在关注长期的结构性因素。 1850 年以来的 5 轮商品上涨大周期。我们结合 David Jacks 的数据和 CF 滤波得 出 5 轮大的上涨周期，平均持续 11.8 年，平均上涨 125%。 从商品大类上看周期。能源、金属是经典的周期品种；农产品则相对跑输；贵金 属直到主要经济体放弃金本位之后，才开始成为周期上涨的主角。 我们选择战争、技术革命和新兴需求三个结构性因素来分 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "Mainline Industry Combination" which is constructed based on the alpha performance of heavy stocks held by industry-focused funds and their commonality in industry distribution. The model identifies high alpha industry-focused funds by calculating the monthly excess returns of their heavy stocks relative to their respective industry indices, synthesizing monthly alpha values, and applying a linear time decay weighted scoring system to select the top 20% of funds. It then verifies consensus at the industry level by analyzing the concentration of these selected funds in specific industries, determining potential mainline industries for investment[28][29][30] - The report evaluates the "Mainline Industry Combination" model as effective in capturing core market trends during clear industry cycles, such as food and beverage in 2016, pharmaceuticals in 2019-2020, and TMT in 2024-2025. However, its performance is limited during periods of rapid industry rotation or unclear market mainlines due to signal bias or increased empty positions[36][39][42] - The backtesting results of the "Mainline Industry Combination" model show an annualized return of 20.91% from 2016 to January 2026, with an annualized excess return of 14.62% compared to equity-biased fund indices. The model demonstrates high annual win rates, particularly during clear industry trend periods, but faces challenges in accumulating excess returns during rapid market rotations[36][38][39] - The report introduces another quantitative model named "Industry Rotation Fund Combination," which is constructed by identifying non-industry-focused funds with high industry turnover rates. The model calculates the turnover rate of fund holdings by comparing the proportion of heavy stocks in different industries across consecutive periods, and selects the top 30% of funds with the highest turnover rates. Further, it uses factor backtesting to identify funds with high dynamic returns and small-cap stock preferences, forming a combination of the top 10 funds with the highest scores[61][64][68] - The "Industry Rotation Fund Combination" model is evaluated as highly adaptable to volatile markets with frequent industry rotations, complementing the "Mainline Industry Combination" model. It performs better in periods lacking clear market mainlines, such as 2018 and 2023, by actively switching industries to adapt to changing market trends[68][69][70] - The backtesting results of the "Industry Rotation Fund Combination" model show an annualized return of 15.05% from 2016 to January 2026, with an annualized excess return of 8.60% compared to equity-biased fund indices. The model demonstrates strong adaptability in volatile markets, achieving higher excess returns during periods of rapid industry rotation[68][69][70] - The report combines the two strategies, "Mainline Industry Combination" and "Industry Rotation Fund Combination," to form a comprehensive model named "Capturing Industry Opportunities Combination." This model adjusts its strategy based on market liquidity changes, using the monthly change in the average daily trading volume of the CSI 800 Index over the past 200 trading days as a leading indicator. When market liquidity expands, the mainline strategy is preferred, while the rotation strategy is favored during liquidity contraction. The combined model achieves an annualized return of 19.61% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.77, with an annualized excess return of 13.32% compared to equity-biased fund indices[72][73][76]

债券型基金分析： 2026 年 01 月 29 日 二级债基定量打分卡介绍 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：模型测算风险、基金行为偏移风险、基本面相关风险。 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [Table_Author] 分析师 徐亮 执业证书： S0590525110037 邮箱： xliang@glms.com.cn 截面持仓特性：二级债基虽然属于债券型基金，但由于其"固收加"的属性，使得其 可以通过调整股债的配置比例，从而在权益市场较好时候获取相比纯债基金更好的 表现我们统计了目前市场上存量的 1049 只二级债基，观测这些基金在各类资产上 的配置比例（在资产总值中的配置比例）。25 年三季度，从平均配置比例来看，信 用债的配置比例最高，利率债（国债+政金债）平均配置比例为 26.2%，权益类资 产（转债+权益）的平均配置比例为 13.87%。从分位数来看，40%以上的固收加 基金都配置了至少一半的信用债。 分市场表现：投资者投资二级债基的主要原因在于其固收底带来的安全性和权益部 分带来的进攻性，我们以存续超过 36 个月的二级债基（720 ...

青岛银行（002948.SZ）2025 年度业绩快报点评 业绩高增，质量优异 glmszqdatemark 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 28 日收盘价） 推荐 首次评级 当前价格： 4.63 元 [Table_Author] | 分析师 王先爽 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120014 | | 邮箱： wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 乔丹 | | 执业证书： S0590526010003 | | 邮箱： qiaodan@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 青岛银行 沪深300 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 13,498 | 14,573 | 16,046 | 17,636 | | 增长率（%） | 8.2 | 8.0 | 10. ...

青岛银行（002948.SZ）2025 年度业绩快报点评 业绩高增，质量优异 glmszqdatemark 推荐 首次评级 当前价格： 4.63 元 [Table_Author] | 分析师 王先爽 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120014 | | 邮箱： wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 乔丹 | | 执业证书： S0590526010003 | | 邮箱： qiaodan@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 青岛银行 沪深300 2026 年 01 月 29 日 事件概述：1 月 28 日，青岛银行披露 2025 年度业绩快报，公司全年营收利润高 增，四季度资负扩张加快，不良率明显下行，资产质量显著改善。 归母净利润 25A 全年同比高增 22%，24Q4 单季同比高增 48%。2025 年公司 营业收入同比增长 8.0%，增速较 25Q1~3 提高 2.9pct，归母净利润同比增长 21.7%，较 25Q1~3 提高 6.1pct。四季度存贷扩张加快，单季营收和归母净利 ...

业绩高增，自有品牌延续高势能 glmszqdatemark 事件：1 月 27 日公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，2025 年预计实现归母净利润 1.76 亿元-2.00 亿元，同增 67%-89%，扣非归母净利润 1.70-1.94 亿元，同增 60%-83%。其中 2025Q4 预计实现归母净利润 0.71-0.95 亿元，同增 49%-99%， 扣非归母净利润 0.68-0.92 亿元，同增 39%-87%。 自有品牌与品牌管理业绩释放，内部管理精益提效。根据公司公告，业绩增长的 主要原因如下：1）自有品牌收入高增：绽家在保持多款单品在细分领域的领先优 势基础上推出战略单品香氛洗衣液，上市后实现快速放量；斐萃在产品端、渠道 端持续发力，推动收入高增。2）品牌管理业绩高增：与多品牌深度合作，进一步 巩固公司在全链路、全渠道数字化服务领域的领先地位。3）内部管理：2025 年 公司持续推进精细化运营战略，降低运营成本，提升资源利用效率。此外，2026 年 1 月 1 日起公司与美斯蒂克正式达成长期战略合作伙伴关系，后续有望将以自 身在全渠道布局、全链路营销推广等方面的核心优势，全面赋能美斯蒂克在中国 市场的 ...

若羽臣（003010.SZ）2025 年业绩预告点评 业绩高增，自有品牌延续高势能 glmszqdatemark 事件：1 月 27 日公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，2025 年预计实现归母净利润 1.76 亿元-2.00 亿元，同增 67%-89%，扣非归母净利润 1.70-1.94 亿元，同增 60%-83%。其中 2025Q4 预计实现归母净利润 0.71-0.95 亿元，同增 49%-99%， 扣非归母净利润 0.68-0.92 亿元，同增 39%-87%。 自有品牌与品牌管理业绩释放，内部管理精益提效。根据公司公告，业绩增长的 主要原因如下：1）自有品牌收入高增：绽家在保持多款单品在细分领域的领先优 势基础上推出战略单品香氛洗衣液，上市后实现快速放量；斐萃在产品端、渠道 端持续发力，推动收入高增。2）品牌管理业绩高增：与多品牌深度合作，进一步 巩固公司在全链路、全渠道数字化服务领域的领先地位。3）内部管理：2025 年 公司持续推进精细化运营战略，降低运营成本，提升资源利用效率。此外，2026 年 1 月 1 日起公司与美斯蒂克正式达成长期战略合作伙伴关系，后续有望将以自 身在全渠道布局、全链路营 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "speed + power" as the core contradiction in the future development of the AI industry, highlighting significant market movements in both speed and power sectors over the past year [1][9] - For 2026, the focus should be on observing the commercial closure rhythms of CSPs and large model vendors to grasp the overall industry beta, while actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments [1][10] - The report suggests that capital expenditure (Capex) and return on investment (ROI) are critical variables in understanding computing power demand, which is primarily driven by token counts and Capex [1][10] Investment Strategy - The computing power industry is viewed as the foundation of technology, with a long-term positive outlook. The report recommends actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments, maintaining the focus on "speed + power" [3][12] - Key areas of investment include domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, storage, and AI terminals [3][12] Capital Expenditure Analysis - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with the top five CSPs' combined Capex reaching $308.1 billion in Q3 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase [24][27] - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are leading this trend, with Google and Microsoft showing particularly aggressive Capex growth to support AI infrastructure [27][28] - The report highlights that Google’s Capex for 2024 is projected to be $52.5 billion, a 63% increase year-on-year, while Microsoft’s Capex is expected to reach $75.6 billion, an 84% increase [27][28] AI Model and Chip Development - The report discusses the rapid iteration of Google's Gemini model family, which has introduced significant advancements in AI capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [36][41] - NVIDIA is identified as a key player in the computing power landscape, with its customer base including CSPs, large model vendors, and government clients, driving substantial revenue growth [24][30] - The report notes that the demand for AI chips is expected to grow, with companies like OpenAI forming strategic partnerships with major chip manufacturers to enhance their infrastructure [62][63] Domestic Computing Power Growth - The report anticipates a breakthrough year for domestic computing power in 2026, driven by the acceleration of domestic large models and positive capital expenditure outlook from cloud vendors [2][6] - The supply side is expected to transition from single-point breakthroughs to multi-point developments, indicating a robust growth trajectory for domestic computing power vendors [2][6] Semiconductor and Storage Opportunities - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as benefiting from an AI-driven storage supercycle, with equipment manufacturers poised to gain from original factory expansions [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the storage industry, predicting rapid expansion in this sector [2][8]