若羽臣（003010.SZ）2025 年业绩预告点评 业绩高增，自有品牌延续高势能 glmszqdatemark 事件：1 月 27 日公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，2025 年预计实现归母净利润 1.76 亿元-2.00 亿元，同增 67%-89%，扣非归母净利润 1.70-1.94 亿元，同增 60%-83%。其中 2025Q4 预计实现归母净利润 0.71-0.95 亿元，同增 49%-99%， 扣非归母净利润 0.68-0.92 亿元，同增 39%-87%。 自有品牌与品牌管理业绩释放，内部管理精益提效。根据公司公告，业绩增长的 主要原因如下：1）自有品牌收入高增：绽家在保持多款单品在细分领域的领先优 势基础上推出战略单品香氛洗衣液，上市后实现快速放量；斐萃在产品端、渠道 端持续发力，推动收入高增。2）品牌管理业绩高增：与多品牌深度合作，进一步 巩固公司在全链路、全渠道数字化服务领域的领先地位。3）内部管理：2025 年 公司持续推进精细化运营战略，降低运营成本，提升资源利用效率。此外，2026 年 1 月 1 日起公司与美斯蒂克正式达成长期战略合作伙伴关系，后续有望将以自 身在全渠道布局、全链路营 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "speed + power" as the core contradiction in the future development of the AI industry, highlighting significant market movements in both speed and power sectors over the past year [1][9] - For 2026, the focus should be on observing the commercial closure rhythms of CSPs and large model vendors to grasp the overall industry beta, while actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments [1][10] - The report suggests that capital expenditure (Capex) and return on investment (ROI) are critical variables in understanding computing power demand, which is primarily driven by token counts and Capex [1][10] Investment Strategy - The computing power industry is viewed as the foundation of technology, with a long-term positive outlook. The report recommends actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments, maintaining the focus on "speed + power" [3][12] - Key areas of investment include domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, storage, and AI terminals [3][12] Capital Expenditure Analysis - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with the top five CSPs' combined Capex reaching $308.1 billion in Q3 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase [24][27] - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are leading this trend, with Google and Microsoft showing particularly aggressive Capex growth to support AI infrastructure [27][28] - The report highlights that Google’s Capex for 2024 is projected to be $52.5 billion, a 63% increase year-on-year, while Microsoft’s Capex is expected to reach $75.6 billion, an 84% increase [27][28] AI Model and Chip Development - The report discusses the rapid iteration of Google's Gemini model family, which has introduced significant advancements in AI capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [36][41] - NVIDIA is identified as a key player in the computing power landscape, with its customer base including CSPs, large model vendors, and government clients, driving substantial revenue growth [24][30] - The report notes that the demand for AI chips is expected to grow, with companies like OpenAI forming strategic partnerships with major chip manufacturers to enhance their infrastructure [62][63] Domestic Computing Power Growth - The report anticipates a breakthrough year for domestic computing power in 2026, driven by the acceleration of domestic large models and positive capital expenditure outlook from cloud vendors [2][6] - The supply side is expected to transition from single-point breakthroughs to multi-point developments, indicating a robust growth trajectory for domestic computing power vendors [2][6] Semiconductor and Storage Opportunities - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as benefiting from an AI-driven storage supercycle, with equipment manufacturers poised to gain from original factory expansions [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the storage industry, predicting rapid expansion in this sector [2][8]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that AI is reshaping manufacturing demand, with mature manufacturing moving towards global markets, and the mechanical industry is expected to benefit significantly from technology and export growth in 2026 [1][9][10] - The mechanical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 by 23.25 percentage points in 2025, with a 40.91% increase in the mechanical industry index compared to a 17.66% increase in the CSI 300 [9][10] - AI technology is expected to have a profound impact on the manufacturing industry, with AI infrastructure reshaping demand patterns and applications driving hardware manufacturing equipment demand [9][11] Group 2 - The report predicts that 2026 will see a significant increase in demand for equipment driven by AI infrastructure, including semiconductor equipment, liquid cooling equipment, and gas turbines [13] - The demand for AI hardware manufacturing equipment and components, such as humanoid robots and 3C automation equipment, is expected to rise [13] - Export-oriented equipment, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, is anticipated to show strong growth in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow, with global sales expected to reach $125.5 billion in 2025, a 7.4% increase, and further growth to $138.1 billion in 2026 [34][40] - The report highlights that the domestic semiconductor equipment market in China is expected to reach approximately 230 billion yuan in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [41] - The PCB industry is entering a new development cycle driven by AI demand, with a projected global PCB market value of approximately $73.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase [54][56] Group 4 - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential due to the increasing power consumption of AI servers, with the global liquid cooling component market expected to reach $5-10 billion in 2025 and $25 billion by 2030 [84][86] - The report indicates that the demand for liquid cooling solutions will significantly increase as AI processing power continues to rise, making traditional cooling methods inadequate [70][84] - The introduction of advanced liquid cooling systems, such as NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300, is expected to drive market growth and innovation in cooling technologies [84][86]

炬芯科技（688049.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 28 日收盘价） 把握端侧 AI 化机遇，存内计算架构赋能业绩增长 glmszqdatemark 事件：1 月 25 日，炬芯科技发布 2025 年年度业绩预告，2025 年全年营业收入 预计为 9.22 亿元，同比增加 41.44%；预计实现归母净利润 2.04 亿元，同比增 长 91.4%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.92 亿元，同比增长 144.42%。 其中，4Q25 单季度公司预计营收 2.00 亿元，同比增长 8.11%，环比减少 26.74%； 预计归母净利润 0.52 亿元，同比增长 44.44%，环比减少 13.72%。 多元布局与产品结构优化驱动业绩高增。2025 年期间，公司以端侧产品 AI 化转 型为核心战略，通过加大研发资源投入、加快新品迭代速度，经营业绩呈现高速 增长态势，公司预计全年营业收入同比增长 41.44%，净利润同比增长 91.40%， 实现盈利规模与盈利质量的双向进阶。 顺应端侧产品 AI 化行业浪潮，公司持续拓展产品矩阵版图。分产品线来看 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in January is supported by cautious assessments of the economic fundamentals and rising political pressures[4] - After a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points, the Fed's policy stance is nearing a neutral range, making further rate cuts less likely in the short term[8] - The labor market shows resilience with a limited increase in the unemployment rate, while core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, still above the 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8][10] Political Context - The ongoing political pressure from the White House complicates the Fed's decision-making process, with Powell facing significant scrutiny and potential threats to the Fed's independence[10] - The upcoming midterm elections may intensify the White House's influence on Fed policies, making it crucial for the Fed to maintain its independence by delaying rate cuts[10] Market Expectations - Current market pricing indicates a strong expectation for the Fed to hold rates steady in January, with minimal anticipation for immediate rate cuts[11] - The probability of Rick Reed becoming the next Fed Chair has significantly increased, which could influence future monetary policy direction[21][22] Future Projections - If economic data remains stable, the necessity for rate cuts will likely decrease, with the Fed expected to maintain its current stance until at least May, when a new chair may take office[10] - The Fed may consider 1-2 rate cuts within the year, depending on economic performance and political dynamics[10]

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 2026 年 01 月 28 日 资金波澜再起 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | 研究助理 | 黄紫仪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110076 | 邮箱： | huangziyi@glms.com.cn | | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 货币政策与流动性观点：税期过后即将迎来跨月，1 月最后一周政府债缴款规模 大幅上升至 5150 亿元左右，可能对资金面造成扰动，但需要注意的是 1 月央行 通过买断式和 MLF 净投放中长期资金 1 万亿元，可以看出对资金面的呵护，因此 跨月或也无需过于担忧。较为特别的是，上周隔夜资金出现上行的情况下存单利 率低位下行，一方面说明银行中长期负债可能较为充足，同业存单从 2025 年 11 月中旬开始除了 12 月第一周少量净融资不到 500 亿元外持续净偿还，截至上周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the CXO industry, highlighting strong recovery and growth potential through 2026 [7][41]. Core Insights - The global CXO industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with significant performance from leading companies, and is expected to maintain high levels of activity into 2026 [1]. - Biotech financing reached a historical high in Q4 2025, indicating a rebound in demand from multinational pharmaceutical companies [7]. - The Chinese market is showing vitality in innovative drug development, with a 19% year-on-year increase in IND applications [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Global CXO Industry Recovery - The CXO industry is set for a strong recovery, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec showing impressive growth, projecting a revenue of 45.5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [10]. - WuXi AppTec's TIDES business is expected to grow over 90% in revenue, with a significant increase in production capacity [10]. - The number of IND applications in China reached 2,703 in 2025, a 19% increase from the previous year, indicating a growing clinical pipeline [26]. 2. Company-Specific Insights - **WuXi Biologics**: The company signed 209 new projects in 2025, with a total of 945 projects, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase. The demand for new technology platforms is driving growth [15]. - **WuXi AppTec**: The company is expected to see a revenue growth of over 45% in 2025, with a focus on ADC and XDC projects, and a global market share increase to over 24% [18]. - **Tigermed**: The company is benefiting from a recovery in the CRO market, with a projected market size of 52.5 billion yuan in 2025 and a stable client structure [25]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For CRO, the report recommends focusing on leading platforms like Tigermed and specialized companies such as Huanbo and Zhaoyan [41]. - In the CDMO sector, it suggests investing in companies with strong positions in peptide supply chains and ADC trends, including WuXi AppTec and Huyuan Biotech [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2025, with net profit projected to be between 280 million and 420 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 428.38% to 692.57% [9] - The core driver of this growth is the non-degree training business, which benefits from strong demand for examination training, regional operational reforms, and technological upgrades that enhance profitability [9] - The company is strategically transforming into vocational education, focusing on civil service and healthcare examination training, which is expected to lead to geometric growth in its non-degree examination training business [9] - The company has established a strong market position and is becoming an industry leader, supported by strategic partnerships and a robust offline network [9] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.78 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1046.3%, 17.5%, 25.0%, and 15.0% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 53 million yuan in 2024 to 520 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 157.6%, 483.8%, 22.7%, and 37.0% respectively [2] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.27 yuan in 2024 to 2.64 yuan in 2027 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned in the civil service examination market, which is experiencing increased demand as the number of applicants surpasses that for graduate school entrance exams [9] - The strategic focus on high-quality teaching and service, along with the development of new business areas, is expected to enhance the company's growth potential [9] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework with a leading online education provider, leveraging AI technology to improve profitability [9]

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20260125 特斯拉计划 2027 年销售机器人 关注机器人板块 glmszqdatemark 长安汽车与美的集团签署全面战略合作协议，深化"人车家"智慧生态合作。1 月 21 日，长安汽车与美的集团签署全面战略合作协议，聚焦"人·车·家"智慧生态 融合。双方将实现"车控家"，用户可语音远程控制 20 类美的智能家电，一键开 启场景模式；开发"家控车"，用户可通过美的设备查询车辆状态、远程控车， 预计缩短出行准备时间约 40%。此外，美的旗下威灵汽车部件将为长安新能源提 供热管理系统、底盘执行系统等核心零部件，其 800V SiC 电动压缩机已量产适 配。双方还将在智能制造升级上协同，推进 AI 智能体、工业机器人等应用，提升 生产效率与定制化能力，推动汽车从代步工具向智慧生活枢纽转型。 投资建议： 乘用车：推荐【吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、比亚迪】，建议关注【江淮汽车】。 零部件： 1）智能化：推荐智能驾驶-【伯特利、地平线机器人、科博达】，智能 座舱-【继峰股份】；2）新势力产业链：推荐 H 链-【星宇股份、沪光股份】；推 荐 T 链-【拓普集团、新泉股份、双环传动】；3）出海链：推 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20260125 特斯拉计划 2027 年销售机器人 关注机器人板块 glmszqdatemark 长安汽车与美的集团签署全面战略合作协议，深化"人车家"智慧生态合作。1 月 21 日，长安汽车与美的集团签署全面战略合作协议，聚焦"人·车·家"智慧生态 融合。双方将实现"车控家"，用户可语音远程控制 20 类美的智能家电，一键开 启场景模式；开发"家控车"，用户可通过美的设备查询车辆状态、远程控车， 预计缩短出行准备时间约 40%。此外，美的旗下威灵汽车部件将为长安新能源提 供热管理系统、底盘执行系统等核心零部件，其 800V SiC 电动压缩机已量产适 配。双方还将在智能制造升级上协同，推进 AI 智能体、工业机器人等应用，提升 生产效率与定制化能力，推动汽车从代步工具向智慧生活枢纽转型。 投资建议： 乘用车：推荐【吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、比亚迪】，建议关注【江淮汽车】。 零部件： 1）智能化：推荐智能驾驶-【伯特利、地平线机器人、科博达】，智能 座舱-【继峰股份】；2）新势力产业链：推荐 H 链-【星宇股份、沪光股份】；推 荐 T 链-【拓普集团、新泉股份、双环传动】；3）出海链：推 ...