Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in AI and data processing chip demand, with a backlog of orders exceeding 5 billion yuan [1][6]. - In 2025, the company expects revenue of 3.153 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.8%, and a narrowing of net loss to 449 million yuan [6]. - The company signed new orders totaling 5.96 billion yuan in 2025, with over 73% related to AI computing and over 50% in data processing [6]. - The company is positioned as the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP vendor, with a diverse portfolio of over 1600 IPs [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 3,153 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.8% [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of -449 million yuan for 2025, improving from -601 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to be 37.5% in 2025, with a projected decline to 30.9% by 2026 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from -12.7% in 2025 to 9.1% in 2027 [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The semiconductor design IP market is projected to grow to 8.5 billion USD in 2024, with the top four companies holding a 75% market share [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from scale effects and channel advantages, which will enhance profit elasticity [6]. - The average price-to-sales (PS) ratio for comparable companies is 31 times for 2026, compared to the company's 18 times, indicating a potential undervaluation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives aimed at stabilizing the market. The emphasis on "high-quality development" suggests a shift in policy that could lead to positive changes in the industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for quality companies are historically low, making them attractive investment opportunities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 17.7% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. Year-on-year, January transactions are down by 9.6% [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69, indicating a healthy demand relative to new listings. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [4][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights a series of government initiatives aimed at promoting urban renewal, with a focus on addressing key issues such as planning, funding, and operational challenges. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has indicated that there is significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][31]. - Specific policies include Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing urban quality and development [3][31]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have reported their expected net profits for 2025, with notable figures including China Vanke's bond extension proposal and various financing activities from companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [3][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has a strong order backlog exceeding 5 billion yuan, driven by demand for AI and data processing chips [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 3.153 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.8%, while the net profit is expected to narrow to -449 million yuan [8] - The company has signed new orders amounting to 5.96 billion yuan in 2025, with over 73% related to AI computing and over 50% in data processing [8] - The company ranks as the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP vendor, with a diverse portfolio of over 1600 IPs [8] - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2025 from 3.35 billion yuan to 3.153 billion yuan, while maintaining projections for 2026 and 2027 at 6.104 billion yuan and 8.525 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Total revenue is expected to grow from 2.322 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.104 billion yuan in 2026, with a significant increase in net profit projected for 2027 at 337 million yuan [7][10] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline from 39.9% in 2024 to 30.9% in 2026, indicating potential pressure on profitability [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -28.3% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7]

2026 年 01 月 24 日 海外利率上行引发全球震荡，后续 推演与影响 ——全球资产配置风险聚焦系列之二 相关研究 全球股市下跌，美元走弱，黄金创新高。从触发因素来看，美国在格陵兰岛的表态引发欧美冲突，欧洲部分资金宣布撤出美债市场，美 债利率在欧盘交易时间大幅上行，同时美元走弱。日本方面，高市早苗宣布解散众议院，市场担心更加"高压"的经济导致通胀失控， 长端国债遭遇较大抛售压力。本轮全球长债加速抛售潮与过去 3 年的趋势有何不同？是否会引发风险资产持续性的波动风险？有何指 标需要关注？ 证 券 研 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 大 类 资 产 配 置 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

策 略 研 究 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2026 年 01 月 24 日 电科蓝天：我国宇航电源领军者 ——注册制新股纵览 20260124 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 新股分析 相关研究 - ⚫ AHP 得分及配售比例：剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算电科蓝天 AHP 得分为 2.94 分、3.10 ...

Group 1 - The spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, driven by the principle of "steady progress," with a foundation for a perfect spring market established through incremental gaming and favorable conditions for long positions [3][4][5] - The spring market is characterized by a complete rotation of sectors and a broad diffusion of profit effects, with short-term investments in cyclical Alpha expanding towards more cyclical turning points [3][4][5] - The overall profit effect is nearing a high point, which may limit the time and space for subsequent market movements after the initial surge [3][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is essentially an extension and expansion phase of the high valuation area of the 2025 technology structural market, with some investment directions entering a high volatility phase [5][6] - After the spring market, a consolidation phase is likely, focusing on waiting for clearer clues regarding the next phase of industrial trends and the digestion of performance and valuation [5][6] - The second half of 2026 is expected to see a new upward phase driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, new stages in technology industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities by residents [5][6] Group 3 - Short-term focus is on cyclical Alpha as a key direction for market exploration of low positions, with resistance likely increasing as profit effects expand to high levels [6][8] - Subsequent rotation directions include opportunities for rebounds in previously strong sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications, while sectors with relatively low profit effects may see a rotation and recovery [6][8] - The long-term outlook remains positive for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on sectors such as overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the computer industry, suggesting that it has fundamental support for investment and potential for future growth [1][2]. Core Insights - The computer sector is expected to experience a rebound in performance due to the recovery of the macro economy and advancements in AI technology, which are anticipated to enhance profitability [1][10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in demand for CPUs, driven by the rise of AI applications and the need for high-performance computing [16][19]. - The introduction of sandbox environments for AI agents is seen as a critical development, enhancing system security and performance in high-concurrency scenarios [22][29]. Summary by Sections Investment Allocation - In Q4 2025, the public fund allocation for the computer industry was 1.6%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking it 14th among 30 sectors [2][3]. - The top ten holdings in the computer sector included Inspur Information, Kingsoft Office, and Sangfor Technologies, with notable changes in the composition of these holdings [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the PE (TTM) for the computer industry was 94.6x, placing it in the 94.80th percentile historically, while the PS (TTM) was 4.0x, in the 71.40th percentile [10][11]. - The report suggests that despite high PE levels, there is still room for growth in PS and PCF valuations as the market sentiment improves [10][11]. CPU Price Expectations - Intel and AMD are expected to raise server CPU prices by 10% to 15% in Q1 2026 due to supply constraints and increased demand from AI applications [16][21]. - The report emphasizes the growing importance of CPUs in AI workloads, particularly in managing complex tasks and ensuring system stability [19][40]. Key Investment Themes - The report identifies several key investment themes, including leadership in the digital economy, AIGC applications, and the importance of data elements and new industrialization [41][42]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Inspur Information, Kingsoft Office, and various firms involved in AI and data solutions [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [4]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [4]. - The report notes that the oil tanker market remains robust, with VLCC rates averaging around $105,090 per day, despite a recent decline in rates due to increased supply [4]. - The dry bulk market is experiencing a rebound, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase to 1,762 points, driven by increased grain exports from South America [4]. - The air transport sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to rising passenger volumes and constrained supply, marking a potential golden era for airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The shipping market is experiencing a strong correlation with commodity prices, with VLCC and Cape rates showing significant increases [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and supply constraints in maintaining high shipping rates [4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices are on the rise, reflecting the overall health of the shipping market, with a slight increase in the new ship composite index [4]. Oil Tanker Market - The oil tanker market remains strong, with high average rates for VLCCs and a stable demand despite recent fluctuations [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The dry bulk market is witnessing a rebound, particularly in the Capesize segment, driven by favorable export conditions from South America [4]. Air Transport Sector - The air transport sector is poised for significant growth, with airlines expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and a constrained supply of aircraft [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The logistics sector is seeing a concentration of market share among leading companies, with a focus on firms like ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to maintain their competitive advantages [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, supported by incremental game dynamics and favorable conditions for bullish windows, which lays the foundation for a perfect spring market with widespread profit effects [1][5][6] - The spring market is characterized by a complete rotation of sectors and sufficient diffusion of profit effects, with short-term adjustments in industrial trend themes and a deepening focus on bottom asset exploration [2][6][7] - The report reiterates the positioning of the spring market within a larger wave, indicating it is an extension and expansion phase of the 2025 technology structural market, with high valuation investment directions entering a phase of high volatility [7][8] Group 2 - Short-term, the focus is on cyclical Alpha as a key direction for market exploration of low positions, with cyclical investments expanding towards cyclical turning points in sectors like construction materials, oil, and steel [8][11] - The report highlights that while cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals are nearing high profit effects, the resistance in the cyclical market is gradually increasing [11][12] - Long-term outlook remains optimistic for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, and commercial aerospace [11][12][17]