行 业 及 产 业 机械设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 告 - 证券分析师 ⚫ Google DeepMind 加大机器人布局，软硬件同步发力。DeepMind CEO Hassabis 在 采访中谈到，希望构建一个以 Gemini 为基础的通用 AI 系统，能配置各种物理形态，包 括人形、四足、轮式等；即把 Gemini 做成机器人界的安卓，他预测，AI 驱动的机器人 技术将在未来几年内迎来突破性时刻。当前机器人软硬件技术尚未解耦，软件的开发脱 离不了硬件，为此，Google DeepMind 聘请波士顿动力前 CTO Aaron Saunders 担 任硬件工程副总裁。Saunders 表示，他将致力于解决在物理世界中实现 AGI 全部潜力 的基础硬件问题。 ⚫ DeepMind 内部已启动 Gemini Robotics 项目， ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 评 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 51.30 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 58.00/27.54 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.64 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 35,563 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,875.26/12,875.19 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 21.63 | | 资产负债率% | 39.51 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,024/693 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 05-27 06-27 07-27 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 杰 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may expect cyclical goods to outperform technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy will attract foreign capital. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw significant gains [3][10] - The report forecasts that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks' ROE will continue to improve alongside the recovery of PPI growth, with A-share ROE stabilizing in Q3 2025 and Hong Kong stock ROE expected to stabilize by the end of 2024 [4][10] Industry Analysis - The report identifies key sectors in Hong Kong stocks that are likely to benefit from improved ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry chain core assets), and cyclical sectors. It highlights that Hong Kong stocks are becoming increasingly attractive compared to A-shares due to better fundamentals and valuation discounts [10] - In 2025, foreign capital has been actively reassessing Chinese assets, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report also mentions that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with public funds showing a growing presence in the market [10] Market Trends - The report indicates that certain sectors, such as consumer staples, have underperformed for three consecutive years and may present investment opportunities in 2026. It also notes a recent increase in short-selling activity in the new consumption sector, suggesting potential volatility [10] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the tool manufacturing industry due to rising raw material costs, with significant price increases observed in hard alloy tools. This trend is expected to continue as demand from the electric vehicle supply chain remains strong [15][16] - The report concludes that the tool manufacturing sector is likely to see sustained performance improvements, driven by price adjustments and recovering profit margins as companies adapt to rising costs [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [8]. Core Insights - The company has signed an agreement to acquire 100% equity of Shandong Energy Equipment Group's high-end support manufacturing company for an assessed value of 345 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its integrated layout in the equipment manufacturing sector and reduce procurement costs [6]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 104.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.59 billion yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [8]. - The company’s coal production and sales volume increased year-on-year, while coal prices decreased. In the first three quarters of 2025, the production of commercial coal reached 135.89 million tons, up 6.94% year-on-year, and sales volume was 126.44 million tons, up 2.64% year-on-year [8]. - The company completed the acquisition of a 51% stake in Northwest Mining, which is expected to add significant coal resources and further expand production capacity [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025 is 144.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2% [7]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 10.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 32.5% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.01 yuan, with a gross profit margin of 29.3% [7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.4% in 2025 [7].

Revenue Performance - In October, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue growth year-on-year was 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous month[6] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, fell significantly by 6.8 percentage points to -1.4%[14] - Revenue from the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains decreased by 6.3, 6.6, and 6.3 percentage points respectively, resulting in year-on-year growth rates of -3.4%, -1.7%, and 1.8%[14] Profitability Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profits saw a substantial year-on-year decline of 31.3 percentage points to -8.8% in October[7] - The operating profit margin dropped by 20.9 percentage points to -6.1% compared to the previous month[34] - Profitability was negatively impacted by rising costs and other losses, with the cost rate for industrial enterprises at 85.6%, remaining at a relatively high level historically[24] Cost Structure - The cost rate for the metallurgy and consumer chains was 86.1% and 85.1%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and stable compared to the previous year[24] - The overall cost pressure on profits remained negative, contributing -3.2% to profit year-on-year[24] Industry-Specific Insights - Industries such as non-metallic products, rubber and plastics, and general equipment experienced significant profit declines, with respective profit growth rates falling by 2, 1.4, and 1.9 percentage points[16] - The automotive, electrical machinery, and computer communication sectors also saw notable profit declines, with contributions to overall profit dropping by 3, 2.7, and 1.5 percentage points[16] Inventory Trends - By the end of October, finished goods inventory increased by 3.7% year-on-year, up from 2.8% in the previous month[6] - Actual inventory growth, excluding price factors, was 8.2% year-on-year, indicating stability in mid and downstream inventories[45]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the supply structure of the primary market for offshore bonds, with a notable shift from traditional city investment bonds to industry bonds, government bonds, and TMT bonds as the new mainstays [3][10] - The offshore bond market has seen a continuous expansion, with a total issuance of 1.24 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, although net financing from city investment bonds has sharply declined to only 422 million yuan [3][10] - The secondary market has experienced a decline in yields, with the 3-year offshore bond yield dropping approximately 40 basis points, outperforming domestic bonds [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the offshore bond market will continue to thrive in 2026, driven by two major changes: narrowing interest rate spreads and a shift in supply dynamics, necessitating more refined selection criteria for bonds [3][4] - The narrowing of the offshore-onshore interest rate spread has reached historical lows, with sovereign bonds at 10-25 basis points and credit bonds at 40-65 basis points, making it challenging to find excess returns [3][4] - The report emphasizes the need to explore investment opportunities in foreign government bonds and Hong Kong government bonds due to limited yield spread in domestic government bonds [3][48] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for Chinese dollar bonds, with expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, targeting a rate of 2.75-3.00% [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on investment-grade dollar bonds and short-term securities to capture certainty in returns, as the credit risk has eased but remains present [5][6] - The investment strategy for 2026 includes a focus on high-grade offshore bonds, with an emphasis on long-duration bonds for insurance companies and high-grade foreign financial bonds for public funds [5][6] Group 4 - The report outlines the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program, which has significantly enhanced market liquidity and investor participation [29][33] - The trading volume of RMB debt instruments has reached 2.13 trillion yuan by October 2025, accounting for over 90% of the total volume in 2024, indicating a robust market activity [29][33] - The report notes that the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" has opened new channels for domestic investors to diversify their asset allocation [29][33]

Revenue Performance - In October, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue growth was 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous month[6] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, fell significantly by 6.8 percentage points to -1.4%[14] - Revenue from the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains decreased by 6.3, 6.6, and 6.3 percentage points respectively, resulting in year-on-year changes of -3.4%, -1.7%, and 1.8%[14] Profitability Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profits dropped sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3 percentage points to -8.8% in October[7] - The operating profit margin fell by 20.9 percentage points to -6.1% compared to the previous month[35] - Profit contributions from non-metallic products, rubber and plastics, and general equipment industries decreased significantly, impacting overall profits by 2, 1.4, and 1.9 percentage points respectively[16] Cost Structure - The cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.6%, remaining at a relatively high level historically, with a negative impact on profit growth of -3.2%[24] - The metallurgy and consumer chains had cost rates of 86.1% and 85.1%, respectively, indicating persistent cost pressures[24] - The agricultural and food sectors saw significant increases in cost rates, with respective month-on-month increases of 46 basis points, 31.7 basis points, and 17.5 basis points[24] Inventory Trends - By the end of October, the inventory of finished products increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[6] - Actual inventory growth, excluding price factors, was 8.2% year-on-year, indicating stable inventory levels in the mid and downstream sectors[46] Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate cost pressures gradually, but the effectiveness of these policies remains to be seen[34] - Continued monitoring of the impact of external factors, such as international oil prices and domestic industrial demand recovery, is crucial for future profitability[53]

2025 年 11 月 27 日 华夏华润有巢 REIT (508077.SH) 扩募价值深度分析 相关研究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 nenawv@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申购策略观点：有巢马桥项目地处上海闵行与松江交界，25 年末马桥 AI 试验区新企业 的入驻有望产生新增租赁需求, 但在市场租金普降的背景下以及区域内散租占主导, 可能 对项目租金产生扰动。我们预计有巢马桥项目的公允价值区间为 8.28~10.39 亿元，与 披露评估值相差-16.32%~5.05%。扩募前，华润有巢分红能力处于中游水平，但扩募 后预计 25 年中性 Cap Rate 达到 3.37%，仅次于城投宽庭与招蛇租赁；中性 IRR 预计 4.8%,较扩募前提升 0.26 个百分点。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten concentrate prices reported at 336,000 RMB/ton, up 135% year-to-date [3]. - The hard alloy tool industry has seen multiple price adjustments in 2025, with the latest round in November being the third this year, driven by rising raw material costs [3]. - The October tool price index showed a continued upward trend, with the index reaching 115.01 points, reflecting a 0.67% month-on-month increase, driven by strong demand from the new energy vehicle sector [3]. - Q3 results for tool manufacturers indicate a recovery in profits, with companies like Huari Precision and Oke Yi reporting significant year-on-year revenue and profit growth [3]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards larger firms as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs and cash payment requirements [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with a notable reduction in mining quotas for 2025 and export controls from China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream essential needs, particularly in the precision machining sector [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Trends - The hard alloy tool industry has undergone three rounds of price adjustments in 2025, with the latest adjustments reflecting a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index indicates that cutting tools are a primary driver of price increases, supported by both cost pressures and demand from the new energy vehicle industry [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 performance for key companies shows significant profit recovery, with Huari Precision achieving a 44.49% year-on-year revenue increase and a 915.62% rise in net profit [3]. - The report highlights a potential consolidation in the industry, with larger firms likely to benefit from stronger financial positions and better access to raw materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the tool industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [1]. Core Insights - The price of tungsten has been driven up by both supply constraints and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten prices observed, with 65% black tungsten ore priced at 336,000 CNY per ton, up 135% from the beginning of the year [3]. - Tool manufacturers have implemented multiple price adjustments throughout the year due to rising raw material costs, with the latest adjustment being the third round in November [3]. - The tool price index continued to rise in October, driven by demand from the new energy vehicle industry and high raw material prices, with the tool price index reaching 115.01 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.67% [3]. - The profitability of tool companies has improved in Q3, with significant revenue and profit growth reported by companies such as Huari Precision and Oke Yi [3]. - The industry landscape is expected to improve as smaller manufacturers may be forced out due to rising raw material costs, benefiting larger companies with stronger financial capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with mining quotas significantly reduced for 2025, and export controls on strategic metals by China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream necessities, with the market showing a stable upward trend in tungsten prices [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Response - Tool manufacturers have raised prices multiple times this year, indicating a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index reflects strong performance, particularly in cutting tools, driven by both cost and demand factors [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 results show a recovery in profits for tool manufacturers, with notable revenue increases reported [3]. - The ongoing rise in raw material prices may lead to a consolidation in the industry, favoring larger firms with better resource management [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Focus on companies such as Huari Precision, Oke Yi, Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, World, and New Sharp [3].