2025 年 11 月 27 日 华夏华润有巢 REIT (508077.SH) 扩募价值深度分析 相关研究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 nenawv@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申购策略观点：有巢马桥项目地处上海闵行与松江交界，25 年末马桥 AI 试验区新企业 的入驻有望产生新增租赁需求, 但在市场租金普降的背景下以及区域内散租占主导, 可能 对项目租金产生扰动。我们预计有巢马桥项目的公允价值区间为 8.28~10.39 亿元，与 披露评估值相差-16.32%~5.05%。扩募前，华润有巢分红能力处于中游水平，但扩募 后预计 25 年中性 Cap Rate 达到 3.37%，仅次于城投宽庭与招蛇租赁；中性 IRR 预计 4.8%,较扩募前提升 0.26 个百分点。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten concentrate prices reported at 336,000 RMB/ton, up 135% year-to-date [3]. - The hard alloy tool industry has seen multiple price adjustments in 2025, with the latest round in November being the third this year, driven by rising raw material costs [3]. - The October tool price index showed a continued upward trend, with the index reaching 115.01 points, reflecting a 0.67% month-on-month increase, driven by strong demand from the new energy vehicle sector [3]. - Q3 results for tool manufacturers indicate a recovery in profits, with companies like Huari Precision and Oke Yi reporting significant year-on-year revenue and profit growth [3]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards larger firms as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs and cash payment requirements [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with a notable reduction in mining quotas for 2025 and export controls from China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream essential needs, particularly in the precision machining sector [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Trends - The hard alloy tool industry has undergone three rounds of price adjustments in 2025, with the latest adjustments reflecting a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index indicates that cutting tools are a primary driver of price increases, supported by both cost pressures and demand from the new energy vehicle industry [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 performance for key companies shows significant profit recovery, with Huari Precision achieving a 44.49% year-on-year revenue increase and a 915.62% rise in net profit [3]. - The report highlights a potential consolidation in the industry, with larger firms likely to benefit from stronger financial positions and better access to raw materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the tool industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [1]. Core Insights - The price of tungsten has been driven up by both supply constraints and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten prices observed, with 65% black tungsten ore priced at 336,000 CNY per ton, up 135% from the beginning of the year [3]. - Tool manufacturers have implemented multiple price adjustments throughout the year due to rising raw material costs, with the latest adjustment being the third round in November [3]. - The tool price index continued to rise in October, driven by demand from the new energy vehicle industry and high raw material prices, with the tool price index reaching 115.01 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.67% [3]. - The profitability of tool companies has improved in Q3, with significant revenue and profit growth reported by companies such as Huari Precision and Oke Yi [3]. - The industry landscape is expected to improve as smaller manufacturers may be forced out due to rising raw material costs, benefiting larger companies with stronger financial capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with mining quotas significantly reduced for 2025, and export controls on strategic metals by China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream necessities, with the market showing a stable upward trend in tungsten prices [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Response - Tool manufacturers have raised prices multiple times this year, indicating a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index reflects strong performance, particularly in cutting tools, driven by both cost and demand factors [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 results show a recovery in profits for tool manufacturers, with notable revenue increases reported [3]. - The ongoing rise in raw material prices may lead to a consolidation in the industry, favoring larger firms with better resource management [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Focus on companies such as Huari Precision, Oke Yi, Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, World, and New Sharp [3].

Core Insights - Alibaba's FY2Q26 revenue reached 247.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Excluding disposed business revenues, the same-caliber revenue growth was 15%. Adjusted EBITA decreased by 78% to 9.1 billion RMB, while Non-GAAP net profit fell by 72% to 10.4 billion RMB, meeting expectations [4][11]. - The strategic focus has shifted from platform economy to a comprehensive transformation towards a large consumption ecosystem, with "full-site push" and instant retail driving traffic synergy [5][11]. - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% to 39.8 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 35% and EBITA margin rising to 9.0%. The company continues to enhance its AI capabilities, with significant upgrades announced in September [11]. Financial Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group achieved revenue of 132.6 billion RMB in FY2Q26, a 16% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA of 10.5 billion RMB, down 76% [5][11]. - Customer management revenue maintained a 10% growth, reaching 78.9 billion RMB in FY2Q26 [5][11]. - The international digital commerce group reported a 10% revenue increase to 34.8 billion RMB, achieving profitability with an adjusted EBITA of 1.62 billion RMB [11]. Strategic Developments - The launch of the Qianwen app has seen over 10 million downloads within a week, marking a significant step in reaching C-end users and supporting a complete AI ecosystem [11]. - The company is actively expanding its instant retail strategy, with approximately 3,500 Tmall brands integrating offline stores into the instant retail business by the end of October [5][11]. - Alibaba's focus on AI and instant retail is expected to enhance user lifecycle and customer value, driving cross-scenario traffic synergy [11]. Market Outlook - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, highlighting its dual core drivers of large consumption and technology, with a long-term moat built around its full-stack AI strategy [6][11]. - Profit forecasts for FY26-27 have been adjusted downwards to 101.9 billion RMB and 145.5 billion RMB, respectively, while the FY28 forecast has been raised to 183.6 billion RMB [6][11].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA) [4][15] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2Q26 was RMB 247.8 billion, representing a 5% year-over-year growth, with a like-for-like growth of 15% when excluding disposed businesses [9] - The company is shifting its strategic focus from platform economy to a broader consumption ecosystem, enhancing traffic synergies through full-site promotions and instant retail [10] - Cloud business revenue grew by 34% year-over-year, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [11] - International Digital Commerce group turned profitable with a revenue increase of 10% year-over-year, achieving an adjusted EBITA of RMB 162 million [13] - The company actively repurchased shares, spending USD 253 million to buy back 17 million common shares [14] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Alibaba are as follows: - FY24: RMB 941,168 million - FY25: RMB 996,347 million - FY26E: RMB 1,038,609 million - FY27E: RMB 1,143,436 million - FY28E: RMB 1,250,635 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts: - FY26E: RMB 101,943 million - FY27E: RMB 145,452 million - FY28E: RMB 183,640 million [5][18]

- The "CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index" (H11059.CSI) focuses on industrial nonferrous metals, selecting 30 large-cap securities involved in industries such as copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare earth metals to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in this theme. The index uses adjusted free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual sample weights capped at 15%, and the top five samples collectively capped at 60%[24][25][26] - The index is rebalanced semi-annually, with sample adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December[25] - The index's top five constituent stocks account for 36.57% of the total weight, while the top ten account for 54.18%, with leading companies like Northern Rare Earth, China Molybdenum, and Aluminum Corporation of China having significant weightage. This concentration enhances the index's sensitivity to price cycles and supply-demand changes in key resources like rare earths, copper, and aluminum[28][29][30] - Compared to other nonferrous metal indices, such as the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index has lower exposure to energy and precious metals, making it more focused on industrial metals closely tied to macroeconomic cycles. This characteristic provides higher elasticity during manufacturing recovery and economic rebound phases[30][33][34] - Over the backtesting period from January 1, 2021, to November 10, 2025, the index achieved an annualized return of 9.18%, outperforming broad-based indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index. However, it also exhibited higher annualized volatility (32.29%) and a maximum drawdown of -61%[35][39][40] - The index's valuation (PE_TTM) has shown a downward trend over the past five years, with a recent recovery driven by market sentiment and sector rebound. As of November 10, 2025, the index's PE ratio stood at 20.41x, at the 68.56th percentile of its five-year valuation range, indicating reasonable investment value amid improving industry fundamentals[41][43][44] - The index's profit scale has grown significantly, with total profits increasing from 46.139 billion yuan in 2020 to 168.052 billion yuan in 2022, representing a compound growth rate of over 90%. After a temporary decline in 2023, profits rebounded in 2024 with a 19.05% year-on-year growth, and further growth is expected in 2025 and 2026[45][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company showcased its "three-in-one" IWM lithium battery welding solution at the 15th High-tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference, emphasizing a "data-driven welding" innovation concept that aims to enhance the quality of battery manufacturing [6]. - The company is addressing industry pain points in lithium battery manufacturing, specifically in laser welding, by implementing a closed-loop system that transitions from "experience-based welding" to "data-driven welding," thereby improving production efficiency and reducing defect rates [6]. - The company is expected to experience rapid growth in its precision business due to the expansion of downstream applications in new energy sectors and continuous product integration [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,735 million yuan in 2024 to 3,377 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 883 million yuan in 2024 to 1,760 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 24.3% [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 4.30 yuan in 2024 to 6.10 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][7]. - The company maintains a high gross margin, projected at around 79% for the forecast period [5]. Business Development - The company is continuously optimizing its core technologies, including CAD, CAM, and NC, while exploring new application directions to achieve high-precision multi-axis motion control [6]. - The laser cutting business is anticipated to maintain rapid growth driven by increased penetration rates, power upgrades, and overseas exports [6].

2025 年 11 月 26 日 长信量化团队立足深度基本面量 化，产品提供差异化配置价值 权 益 量 化 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 长信量化团队梯队建设完备，成员具备深厚的多学科专业背景。团队成立于 2008 年，是 公募行业较早布局量化投资的团队之一，现有成员平均从业年限达 12.8 年，经历了多轮 市场周期考验，成员专业背景覆盖金融工程、数学、计算机等领域。 ⚫ 长信量化构建系统化的投研体系，追求可持续的管理方案。团队立足深度基本面量化，核 心运用多因子 Alpha 模型预测收益，并结合风险模型与交易成本模型进行组合优化。通 过涵盖因子构建、收益预测到绩效归因的完整投研闭环，旨在在严格的风险约束下，实现 可解释、可复制且长期可持续的超额回报。 ⚫ 长信量化产品布局全面，构建了多元产品矩阵。团队产品线涵盖宽基指数增强、行业量化 及主动量化三大类，是业内布局最齐全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company showcased its "three-in-one" IWM lithium battery welding solution at the 15th High-tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference, emphasizing a "data-driven welding" innovation concept to enhance the quality of battery manufacturing [6] - The company aims to address industry pain points in lithium battery manufacturing, specifically in laser welding, by implementing a closed-loop system that transitions from "experience-based welding" to "data-driven welding," thereby improving production efficiency and reducing defect rates [8] - The company is continuously optimizing its core technologies and exploring new application directions, with expectations for rapid growth in its precision business due to the expansion of downstream applications in new energy [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.80 billion, 27.24 billion, and 33.77 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 25.0%, and 24.0% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 11.13 billion, 14.16 billion, and 17.60 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 26.1%, 27.2%, and 24.3% [8] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 79% and a return on equity (ROE) projected to increase from 16.9% in 2025 to 18.0% in 2027 [7][8]

2025 年 11 月 26 日 景顺长城中证沪港深红利成长低波 动指数型基金投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百五十九 相关研究 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 股 票 基 金 - ⚫ 市场维持低利率环境，稳健资产配置价值提升。红利成长低波策略汇集高分红、盈利成 长与价格稳定三大特点，把握高分红与成长机遇的同时，进一步降低因股价波动来带的 对组合净值的影响，使得策略能够获得良好的长期表现。 ⚫ 对比不同 Smart Beta 策略红利成长低波指数表现优异。资本利得和股息收入是红利类 股票指数的两种获利来源，而从长期投资的视角来看，股息回报在总回报中占据重要地 位。自 2020 年以来，红利成长低波三因子构成的 Smart Beta 策略收益表现显著优于 红利低波与成长低波的两因子 Smart Beta 策略。 ⚫ 股息率位于历史高位，低利率背景下红利配 ...