2026 年 01 月 25 日 站院/行业 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 册分歧式行 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 T 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+1.88%，沪深 300 指 数-0.62%，相对收益为+2.00pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为钢结 构 (+6.80%)、基建民企 (+6.61%)、专业工程 (+5.88%)，对应行业 内三个公司：东南网架（+10.79%）、成都路桥（+15.65%）、志特新材 (+49.21%)；年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是钢结构（+22.00%）、专 业工程（+21.74%）、装饰幕墙（+10.85%），对应行业内三个公司：杭 萧钢构 (+30.98%)、志特新材 (+256.3 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights Linping Development as a leading manufacturer of packaging paper in Anhui province, with a current production capacity of 1.15 million tons and a market share of 0.75% nationally and 35.65% in Anhui province, ranking 9th in boxboard production in China [7][8] - The company is set to launch a new high-end production line with a width of 8600mm in 2026, which will enhance its product offerings and increase total production capacity to 2.35 million tons, focusing on green manufacturing and circular economy strategies [8][10] - The report notes that the impact of imports on domestic prices is diminishing, with a recovery in paper prices expected as the import volume of finished paper has significantly decreased since the first half of 2025, leading to a stabilization of prices [12][15] Group 2 - Linping Development's revenue and net profit for 2022-2024 are projected to decline at a CAGR of -7.09% and -0.52% respectively, primarily due to tariff adjustments and natural disasters, but a recovery is anticipated in 2025 with revenue growth of 6.23% to 11.87% and net profit growth of 17.76% to 30.84% [20][21] - The company has improved its gross margin to 10.32% in the first half of 2025, with operational efficiency consistently outperforming peers, and a focus on upgrading production lines to optimize costs [22][25] - Linping Development's R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue has been increasing, indicating a commitment to product optimization and development, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing product performance and competitiveness [32][36] Group 3 - The report identifies comparable companies such as Shanying International and Jingxing Paper, with Linping Development's average P/E ratio at 30.72X compared to the industry average of 26.24X, suggesting a competitive positioning within the market [16][19] - The company has maintained a high cash collection ratio of 1.00, which is above the average of comparable companies, and has seen a gradual improvement in its debt-to-asset ratio, indicating a solid financial position [25][28] - Linping Development's operational capabilities are superior to its peers, with a total asset turnover rate of 1.56 times, reflecting effective inventory management and operational efficiency [29][30] Group 4 - The company plans to raise funds through an IPO to support projects aimed at producing 900,000 tons of green intelligent manufacturing materials and 600,000 tons of bio-based fiber materials, with a total investment of 20.58 billion yuan [34][35] - The expected production capacity from these projects will enhance the company's product structure and improve automation levels, thereby strengthening its market competitiveness [34][35]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, suggesting that it is currently in a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with expectations for improvement in the first half of the year [2][6]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has seen a significant increase in allocation by active equity funds, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102 basis points, surpassing the three-year average [2]. - The report highlights strong earnings forecasts for 2025, with notable increases in net profits for several brokerages, including a projected 405.3% increase for Guolian Minsheng [2][16]. - The insurance sector is expected to stabilize, with a forecasted recovery in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products, anticipated to rise to 1.96% in Q1 2026 [2][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,702.50 with a decline of 0.62%, while the non-bank index fell by 1.45% [6]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported changes of -0.61%, -4.02%, and +3.10%, respectively [6]. Non-Banking Sector Insights - The report notes that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new guidelines for performance benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability [8][10]. - Key announcements from individual companies include China Pacific Insurance reporting an 8.1% increase in premium income for 2025, and Guolian Minsheng forecasting a significant profit increase due to business integration [12][16]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on firms with strong competitive positions, such as Guotai Junan and Citic Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [2]. - In the insurance sector, the report maintains a positive medium-term outlook, recommending companies like China Life and Ping An Insurance [2]. Key Data Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the average daily trading volume was reported at 30,388.36 billion [32]. - The margin trading balance stood at 27,249.13 billion [38].

证 券 研 究 报 告 股债恒定ETF增强策略创新 ——泛固收资产配置研究系列之一 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 2026.1.25 主要内容 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 风险提示：模型计算可能存在误差，指标选取可能不够全面，历史回测不代表未来 ◼ 从理论模型和期权定价例证角度出发，都可以印证再平衡策略的波动率空头属性。 ◼ 基于此，我们设计了一个基于波动率敞口的再平衡择时策略，根据波动率变化规律调整组合的做空波动率敞口。 • 做空波动率策略在训练样本（2016-2020年）表现较好，收益、回撤、波动的表现都要更优；但是在测试样本（2021-2026.01）表现并 不理想，尽管降低了回撤和波动，但收益有所损失。 • 原因可能在于股债再平衡策略占优的假设依赖，有时候可能与实际市场环境并不一致。 • 股债再平衡的优势，依赖于股债之间大部分情况下呈现的"此消彼长"关系，因此，可以在此基础上开展"高抛低吸"操作。但是，如果 这一假设条件变得并不稳定，股债再平衡策略的表现也会打折扣。 ◼ 因此，需要考虑到股债两类资产可能产生的趋势性差 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, highlighting strong growth potential in specific segments such as high-performance outdoor brands and non-woven fabric manufacturing [24]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 4.5% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.7 percentage points [4][5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand in 2026, with a focus on high-growth consumption areas, including high-performance outdoor brands and discount retail [19]. - The Australian wool price has reached a new high, driven by increased demand for sports wool apparel, which is expected to translate into revenue growth for companies in the supply chain [10][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector showed strong performance, with the SW apparel and home textiles index increasing by 4.4% and the SW textile manufacturing index rising by 2.1% during the same period [5]. - Retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 15.215 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [14]. Market Trends - The report notes a divergence in brand performance, with high-end outdoor and niche sports brands showing significant growth potential, while overall demand growth has slowed due to warmer winter temperatures and delayed holidays [11][14]. - The non-woven fabric industry is expected to benefit from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Sturdy, Yanjiang, and Nuobang projected to maintain rapid growth [16]. Company Insights - Anta Sports reported a slight decline in retail sales for its main brand in Q4 2025, but overall revenue growth for the group was in the double digits, driven by strong performance from other brands [21]. - The FILA brand achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q4 2025, indicating a positive trend for the brand moving into 2026 [22]. - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in the women's apparel sector, with companies like Ge Li Si and Di Su Shi showing signs of recovery after a period of adjustment [12]. Price Trends - The Australian wool price index reached 1137 cents per kilogram as of January 21, 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.3% [52]. - Domestic cotton prices also saw a slight increase, with the national cotton price B index reported at 15,869 yuan per ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [49].

建筑装饰 2026 年 01 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 25 年固定资产投资承压，关注年初开门红效果 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20260119-20260123） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - 1.1 建筑行业周涨幅+1.88%，子行业钢结构表现最好 上周建筑行业涨幅+1.88%，跑赢上证综指（+0.84%）、深证成指（+1.11%）、中小 板（+0.87%）、创业板（-0.34%）、沪深 300（-0.62 ...

Group 1: AHP Scores and Expected Allocation Ratios - Linping Development's AHP scores, after excluding liquidity premium factors, are 1.29 and 2.01, placing it in the 17.1% and 36.9% percentiles of the non-Science and Technology Innovation Board AHP model, indicating a lower to mid-level position in the industry [10][11] - Assuming a 95% admission rate, the expected allocation ratios for offline A and B categories are 0.0121% and 0.0105% respectively [10][11] Group 2: Company Fundamentals and Highlights - Linping Development is a leading manufacturer of packaging paper in Anhui Province, with a current raw paper production capacity of 1.15 million tons, holding a market share of 0.75% nationally and 35.65% in Anhui Province [11][12] - The company plans to launch a new 8600mm corrugated paper production line in 2026, which will enhance its high-end product offerings and increase total production capacity to 2.35 million tons [11][12] - The company is committed to low-carbon development and has implemented a green manufacturing strategy, utilizing resources efficiently through combined heat and power generation [12][14] Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The demand for corrugated and boxboard paper is expected to grow due to the e-commerce and logistics sectors, with a projected CAGR of 4.83% and 5.06% from 2015 to 2024 [16] - The removal of import tariffs on finished paper in 2023 led to a temporary surge in imports, but by the first half of 2025, import volumes have significantly decreased, stabilizing domestic prices [16][19] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with the CR10 rising from 36.67% in 2015 to 49.39% in 2024, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the exit of smaller players [16][19] Group 4: Financial Performance and Comparisons - Linping Development's revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024 showed a CAGR of -7.09% and -0.52% respectively, primarily due to tariff adjustments and natural disasters impacting performance [20][24] - The company’s gross margin improved to 10.32% in the first half of 2025, with a stable cash collection ratio of 1.00, indicating strong operational efficiency compared to peers [26][29] - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is 30.72X, while Linping Development's industry P/E is 26.24X, suggesting a relatively favorable valuation [20][24] Group 5: Investment Projects and Future Vision - The company plans to raise funds through an IPO to support projects including a 900,000-ton green intelligent manufacturing project and a 600,000-ton bio-based fiber project, with total investments of 20.58 billion yuan [39][40] - Upon completion, these projects will enhance product structure and production efficiency, solidifying Linping Development's competitive edge in the market [39][40]

"大财政"系列之二 2026 年 01 月 25 日 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ ——"大财政"系列之二 美国股债汇三杀冲击下，特朗普再度 TACO，撤回对欧洲关税。短期市场冲击虽阶段性缓和，但 债务、地缘等根本矛盾并未解决。随着债务持续扩张，特朗普采取更多"柔性"金融抑制措施。 《财政"锦标赛"：美欧日，谁更积 一、热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ （三）向后看，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施压低实际利率，但不宜期待美联储 YCC 市场往往误认为债务扩张将导致美、日债务崩盘，未来或将暴发债务违约风险。但对发达货币主 权国而言，央行拥有近乎无限的本币发行能力，实质性违约的可能性较低。债务危机在新兴市场 多表现为信用风险，在发达的拥有主权货币的国家则多表现为货币贬值和通胀预期上升。 （一）全球债市恐慌重演，美国上演"股债汇三杀"，特朗普再度 TACO 1 月 20 日，海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"。美欧日国债遭集体抛售，权益等风险资产普跌， 美元走弱，黄金等避险资产走强。日本 40 年国债利率突破 4.0%，10 年美债利率升至 4.3%，30 年英债升至 5.2%，美元跌至 98.54，纳指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in AI and data processing chip demand, with a backlog of orders exceeding 5 billion yuan [1][6]. - In 2025, the company expects revenue of 3.153 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.8%, and a narrowing of net loss to 449 million yuan [6]. - The company signed new orders totaling 5.96 billion yuan in 2025, with over 73% related to AI computing and over 50% in data processing [6]. - The company is positioned as the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP vendor, with a diverse portfolio of over 1600 IPs [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 3,153 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.8% [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of -449 million yuan for 2025, improving from -601 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to be 37.5% in 2025, with a projected decline to 30.9% by 2026 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from -12.7% in 2025 to 9.1% in 2027 [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The semiconductor design IP market is projected to grow to 8.5 billion USD in 2024, with the top four companies holding a 75% market share [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from scale effects and channel advantages, which will enhance profit elasticity [6]. - The average price-to-sales (PS) ratio for comparable companies is 31 times for 2026, compared to the company's 18 times, indicating a potential undervaluation [6].