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2025年12月资产配置报告:由守转攻,布局高景气
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-04 10:23
Macro Strategy Overview - The report indicates a transition from a defensive to an offensive investment strategy, focusing on sectors with high growth potential as the market stabilizes [1][5] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [4][20] - Domestic economic pressures are increasing, with a forecasted GDP growth rate of around 4.5% for Q4, while the annual target of 5% remains achievable [4][25] Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic consumption and investment are experiencing downward pressure, with retail sales growth slowing to 2.9% in October [28][33] - Fixed asset investment growth has declined to -1.7% year-to-date, influenced by anti-involution policies and excess capacity [38] - Industrial production showed a slight recovery, but overall demand remains weak, impacting growth [28][38] A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is expected to shift towards a more optimistic outlook, with a focus on technology and growth sectors as the market stabilizes [5][6] - The report suggests that December is a favorable time for positioning in sectors with improving growth prospects, particularly in technology and growth-oriented industries [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, including global equities and commodities, to mitigate risks [6][60] Sector Performance - In November, the A-share market saw a general decline, with technology sectors experiencing significant drops while traditional sectors like textiles and banking showed resilience [10][12] - The report notes that the technology growth sectors, such as AI and semiconductors, are expected to present investment opportunities as the market approaches the spring rally [5][12] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor sector rotation and the performance of high-dividend stocks as market conditions evolve [60]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251204
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-04 09:35
New Stock Offerings - 荃银高科 (300087) has a tender offer period from December 4, 2025, to January 5, 2026[1] - 天普股份 (605255) has a tender offer period from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] Delisting Notices - *ST广道 (920680) will enter the delisting preparation period starting December 11, 2025[1] - *ST苏吴 (600200) will enter the delisting preparation period starting December 9, 2025[1] Stock Performance Alerts - 赛微电子 (300456) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - 江龙船艇 (300589) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] Other Announcements - 梦天家居 (603216) has an announcement dated December 3, 2025[1] - 高乐股份 (002348) has an announcement dated December 4, 2025[1]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251203
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-03 11:29
New Stock Listings - China Uranium Industry (Stock Code: 001280) listed at an issue price of 17.89 on December 3, 2025[1] - 荃银高科 (Stock Code: 300087) has a tender offer period from December 4, 2025, to January 5, 2026[1] - 天普股份 (Stock Code: 605255) has a tender offer period from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] Delisting and Risk Alerts - *ST苏吴 (Stock Code: 600200) enters delisting arrangement starting December 9, 2025[1] - 赛微电子 (Stock Code: 300456) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] Other Announcements - Various companies including 江龙船艇 (Stock Code: 300589) and 北大医药 (Stock Code: 000788) have recent announcements regarding their stock activities[1] - Multiple companies are under scrutiny for abnormal trading activities, including *ST绿康 (Stock Code: 002868) and 特发信息 (Stock Code: 000070)[2][3]
公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报(2025.11.30):市场震荡因素缓解,关注短期低位布局机会-20251202
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-02 10:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is expected to gradually return to an upward trend as the factors causing previous adjustments are digested and alleviated. It is a good time to make short-term low-level layouts. The stock fund enhancement strategy has more room for growth, and the evergreen low-volatility strategy can be used as a base configuration [3][4]. - The US stock market is in a high-level volatile pattern in the short term. In the long term, the main driving force of the technology development trend remains strong, and the long-term upward trend of the US stock market is still optimistic [5]. - Different fund strategies have different performance. The evergreen low-volatility fund strategy has shown strong stability, the stock fund enhancement fund strategy has high volatility, the cash gain fund strategy has continuously accumulated excess returns, and the overseas equity allocation fund strategy has high long-term allocation value [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking - **Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio**: It has maintained low - volatility characteristics for a long time, with significantly better volatility and maximum drawdown than the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. Since the strategy started on July 31, 2023, it has continued its low - volatility and small - drawdown attributes, showing both defensive and offensive capabilities [12][14]. - **Stock Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy has been running for a short time, and its performance is close to that of the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity when the market environment improves [12][17]. - **Cash Gain Fund Portfolio**: After double screening of risk elimination and scoring optimization, it has continuously outperformed the benchmark. Since the strategy started in late July 2023, it has accumulated more than 0.41% excess return [12][18]. - **Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Since July 31, 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest - rate cut channel and the drive of artificial intelligence technology, it has accumulated a high level of excess return, and global allocation can increase the return of the equity investment portfolio [12][22]. 2. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - **Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio**: The goal is to select funds with long - term stable returns from high - equity - position actively managed funds. By adding restrictions on fund valuation levels, a low - volatility active equity fund portfolio is constructed [24][27]. - **Stock Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The goal is to meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. By analyzing the source of fund returns and constructing a portfolio based on the significant continuity of Alpha returns, it is expected to bring excess performance [25][28]. - **Cash Gain Fund Portfolio**: A currency fund selection system is constructed by comprehensively considering various currency fund factors, helping investors obtain higher returns and reduce return volatility risks [25][29]. - **Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Based on overseas equity market indices, by using long - term momentum and short - term reversal factors, an overseas equity allocation fund portfolio is constructed to assist investors in global investment [26][30].
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251202
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-02 09:31
New Stock Listings - Jingchuang Electric (920035) listed at an issuance price of 12.10 on December 2, 2025[1] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255) is in the offer period from November 20 to December 19, 2025[1] Market Alerts - ST Suwu (600200) enters the delisting arrangement period starting December 9, 2025[1] - Jianglong Shipbuilding (300589) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] Recent Announcements - Multiple companies including Beida Pharmaceutical (000788) and ST Green Health (002868) have recent announcements regarding their stock activities[1] - A total of 30 companies have been flagged for abnormal trading activities in the last week[2]
公募基金泛固收指数跟踪周报(2025.11.24-2025.11.28):全球风偏环比提升,债市回调后待情绪修复-20251201
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-01 11:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market performed poorly, with short - end volatility and long - end weakness affected by the warming of the equity market and the Vanke bond extension event. Credit bonds generally declined. However, the cost - performance of bond market allocation has increased, and there is limited room for a further significant increase in yields. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, appropriately extend the duration of interest - rate bonds while controlling the overall duration, or invest in liquid credit bonds and wait for the bond market sentiment to recover [3][9]. - The U.S. bond yields continued to decline last week. The market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed increased due to weaker - than - expected retail sales data and dovish signals from Fed officials [10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comments on the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trust funds, indicating a new round of expansion in the REITs market [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Domestic Bond Market**: Last week (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.28), the domestic bond market was sluggish. The 1 - year Treasury yield remained at 1.40%, the 10 - year yield rose 2.46BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year yield rose 2.75BP to 2.19%. Credit bonds generally declined [3][9]. - **U.S. Bond Market**: Last week, U.S. bond yields continued to fall. The 1 - year yield dropped 1BP to 3.61%, the 2 - year yield dropped 4BP to 3.47%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 4BP to 4.02%. This was due to weaker - than - expected retail sales data and dovish signals from the Fed [10]. - **REITs Market**: Last week, the China Securities REITs Total Return Index slightly fell 0.08% to 1040.34 points. Most sectors declined, except for the data center and affordable housing sectors. In the primary market, 19 REITs have been successfully issued in 2025 as of November 28, 2025, and 3 new REITs made progress last week [10]. 3.1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a draft for public comments on the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trust funds to promote the high - quality development of the REITs market, enrich investment and financing tools, support the new real - estate development model, and serve the real economy [11]. 3.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | | Currency Enhancement Index | +0.02% | +4.35% | | Short - Term Bond Fund Selection | 0.00% | +4.50% | | Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection | - 0.10% | +6.75% | | Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | +0.02% | +4.25% | | Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | +0.44% | +5.61% | | High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | +0.38% | +7.29% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | +0.24% | +21.33% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | +0.12% | +10.33% | | REITs Fund Selection | +0.74% | +33.22% | [4][12] 3.2.1. Currency Enhancement Index Tracking - **Currency Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and rises smoothly. It mainly invests in money - market funds with good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the China Securities Money Fund Index [13]. 3.2.2. Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Focuses on liquidity management, pursues a smooth - rising curve while controlling drawdowns. It mainly invests in 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and strong absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [17]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds to pursue stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It aims for excess returns compared to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a smooth - rising net - value curve. It selects 5 funds, adjusts the duration according to market conditions, and balances coupon - based and band - trading strategies [19]. 3.2.3. Fixed - Income + Index Tracking - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 10%, and 10 funds are selected each period. It focuses on fixed - income + funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock positions) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [21]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 20%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing both risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [25]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 30%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [26]. 3.2.4. Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index - The index selects bond - type funds with an average convertible - bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It evaluates funds from multiple dimensions and selects 5 funds based on market conditions [30]. 3.2.5. QDII Bond Fund Selection Index Tracking - The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds. The index selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions [33]. 3.2.6. REITs Fund Selection Index Tracking - The underlying assets of REITs are mainly high - quality, stable - operating infrastructure projects. The index selects 10 funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and some elasticity based on underlying asset types [34].
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251201
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-01 09:35
Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Tianpu Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 605255) has a tender offer period from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] - Jianglong Shipbuilding (Stock Code: 300589) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - Peking University Medicine (Stock Code: 000788) announced a trading update[1] Group 2: Trading Updates - Tongyu Communication (Stock Code: 002792) reported a trading update on December 1, 2025[1] - Daoming Optics (Stock Code: 002632) also provided a trading update on December 1, 2025[1] - Rongji Software (Stock Code: 002474) issued a trading update on December 1, 2025[1] Group 3: Abnormal Fluctuations - Ruineng Technology (Stock Code: 603933) reported a trading update on November 29, 2025, with a fluctuation of 6%[1] - Maoye Commercial (Stock Code: 600828) also reported a fluctuation of 6% on November 29, 2025[1] - Heshun Petroleum (Stock Code: 603353) reported a fluctuation of 7% on November 29, 2025[1]
公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.11.24-2025.11.28):市场延续缩量,海外风险释放-20251201
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-01 08:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - From November 24 to 28, 2025, small-cap stocks led the gains in the equity market, with the growth style outperforming the value style. The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 1.7312 trillion yuan, continuing to decline week-on-week, and market activity remained to be restored. Near the end of the year, funds focused on performance assessment, resulting in low willingness for incremental funds to enter the market. In this environment, high-low band operations are more suitable for structural opportunities in the stock game [3][10]. - Global conflicts have been cooling down. After the trade disputes in early October, the relationship games among China, the US, and Japan are expected to become more stable, and there is also hope for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the approaching US mid-term elections in 2026, the Trump administration may refocus on domestic issues [4][11]. - In the technology sector, during the controversy over the "bubble" of overseas AI and the short-term stock price adjustment, the market consensus in the domestic technology sector last week was concentrated on the Google industry chain. However, the current participation in the Google industry chain is more based on mapping rather than fundamental drivers, and it is difficult to quantify the future market space and industry growth rate. There is also a "pulling and stepping" phenomenon of funds within the technology sector [4][12]. - The commercial space industry showed a typical theme investment pattern in the short term, with the market following key events or policy implementations. In the long term, technological breakthroughs, accelerated launch site construction, and the implementation of terminal application scenarios will jointly promote the large-scale development of the industry [4][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40%, the CSI 300 rose 1.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 4.54%. Small-cap stocks led the gains, and the growth style outperformed the value style. The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 1.7312 trillion yuan, continuing to decline week-on-week [10]. - Market Environment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December once reached 85%, improving the external monetary environment. However, near the end of the year, funds focused on performance assessment, resulting in low willingness for incremental funds to enter the market. In this environment, high-low band operations are more suitable for structural opportunities in the stock game [10]. - Overseas Risk Release: Global conflicts have been cooling down. The relationship games among China, the US, and Japan are expected to become more stable, and there is also hope for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the approaching US mid-term elections in 2026, the Trump administration may refocus on domestic issues [4][11]. - Technology Direction: The market consensus in the domestic technology sector last week was concentrated on the Google industry chain. However, the current participation in the Google industry chain is more based on mapping rather than fundamental drivers, and it is difficult to quantify the future market space and industry growth rate. There is also a "pulling and stepping" phenomenon of funds within the technology sector [4][12]. - Commercial Space: The commercial space industry showed a typical theme investment pattern in the short term, with the market following key events or policy implementations. In the long term, technological breakthroughs, accelerated launch site construction, and the implementation of terminal application scenarios will jointly promote the large-scale development of the industry [4][13]. 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1 Active Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.88% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 14.64% since its establishment. The index selects 15 active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, with equal-weight allocation for each fund. The performance benchmark is the CSI Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [5][14][15]. 2.2 Value Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 1.21% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 3.70% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds with deep value, quality value, and balanced value styles based on multi-period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [5][14][17]. 2.3 Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.37% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 9.46% since its establishment. The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value-growth style funds based on multi-period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [5][14][19]. 2.4 Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 4.37% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 15.15% since its establishment. The index selects 10 active growth, quality growth, and balanced growth style funds based on multi-period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [5][14][23]. 2.5 Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 4.42% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 22.11% since its establishment. The index selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical), with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][24]. 2.6 Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.85% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 19.33% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, Commerce and Retail, Consumer Services, Textile and Apparel, Food and Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery), with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][27]. 2.7 Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 4.24% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 20.79% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Electronics, Communications, Computer, Media), with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][32]. 2.8 High-End Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 5.69% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of -1.97% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, Machinery, Power Equipment and New Energy, National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, Communications), with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the high-end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][34]. 2.9 Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.96% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of -0.81% since its establishment. The index selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, Non-Ferrous Metals, Steel, Building Materials, Basic Chemicals, Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Real Estate, Comprehensive Finance), with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][34].
ETF策略指数跟踪周报-20251201
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-01 06:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents several ETF strategy indices constructed with the help of ETFs and tracks their performance and positions on a weekly basis, including the Huabao Research Small - Large Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index, Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index, etc [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Performance of ETF Strategy Indices Last Week**: The Huabao Research Small - Large Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index had a return of 1.65%, with a benchmark return of 2.04% and an excess return of - 0.39%; the Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index had a return of 5.13%, with a benchmark return of 2.04% and an excess return of 3.10%; the Huabao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index had a return of 0.58%, with a benchmark return of 2.04% and an excess return of - 1.46%; the Huabao Research Quantitative Balancing Act ETF Strategy Index had a return of 0.84%, with a benchmark return of 1.64% and an excess return of - 0.80%; the Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index had a return of 1.98%, with a benchmark return of 2.82% and an excess return of - 0.84%; the Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index had a return of - 0.16%, with a benchmark return of - 0.26% and an excess return of 0.09% [13] 3.2 Huabao Research Small - Large Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large Cap Index and the Shenwan Small Cap Index. The model outputs signals weekly to predict the strength of the indices in the next week and determines positions based on the results to obtain excess returns relative to the market [14] - **Performance**: As of 2025/11/28, the excess return since 2024 was 19.93%, the excess return in the past month was 0.50%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.39%. The return in the past week was 1.65%, - 2.39% in the past month, and 51.22% since 2024 [14][15] - **Position**: The position was 100% in the CSI 300ETF (fund code: 510300.SH) [18] 3.3 Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps the timing signals to ETFs based on the exposure of ETFs to 9 major Barra factors to obtain returns exceeding the market. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [19] - **Performance**: As of 2025/11/28, the excess return since 2024 was 24.67%, the excess return in the past month was 7.70%, and the excess return in the past week was 3.10%. The return in the past week was 5.13%, 4.81% in the past month, and 55.96% since 2024 [19][20] - **Position**: The positions included 25.12% in the Science and Technology Innovation 100 ETF (fund code: 588220.SH), 25.03% in the Full Science and Technology Innovation Index ETF (fund code: 589600.SH), 24.96% in the ChiNext 200 ETF (fund code: 159270.SZ), and 24.90% in the ChiNext Comprehensive ETF (fund code: 159541.SZ) [23] 3.4 Huabao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It starts from multiple factors, including the grasp of medium - and long - term fundamental dimensions, the tracking of short - term market trends, and the analysis of the behaviors of various market participants. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors to obtain excess returns relative to the market [23] - **Performance**: As of 2025/11/28, the excess return since 2024 was 33.97%, the excess return in the past month was 2.00%, and the excess return in the past week was - 1.46%. The return in the past week was 0.58%, - 0.89% in the past month, and 65.27% since 2024 [23][26] - **Position**: The positions included 21.02% in the Bank ETF (fund code: 512800.SH), 20.57% in the Oil and Gas ETF (fund code: 159697.SZ), 19.59% in the Securities and Insurance ETF (fund code: 512070.SH), 19.57% in the Power ETF (fund code: 159611.SZ), and 19.25% in the New Energy ETF (fund code: 516160.SH) [27] 3.5 Huabao Research Quantitative Balancing Act ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses a multi - factor system including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical aspects, and investor behaviors to build a quantitative timing system for trend analysis of the equity market. It also establishes a prediction model for the market's small - and large - cap styles to adjust the position distribution in the equity market and comprehensively obtains excess returns relative to the market through timing and rotation [27] - **Performance**: As of 2025/11/28, the excess return since 2024 was - 9.55%, the excess return in the past month was 1.23%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.80%. The return in the past week was 0.84%, - 1.23% in the past month, and 22.38% since 2024 [27][28] - **Position**: The positions included 9.38% in the Ten - Year Treasury Bond ETF (fund code: 511260.SH), 5.87% in the 500ETF Enhanced (fund code: 159610.SZ), 5.83% in the CSI 1000ETF (fund code: 512100.SH), 32.27% in the 300 Enhanced ETF (fund code: 561300.SH), 23.35% in the Policy - Financial Bond ETF (fund code: 511520.SH), and 23.30% in the Short - Term Financing ETF (fund code: 511360.SH) [30] 3.6 Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses strategies such as market sentiment analysis, tracking of major industry events, investor sentiment and professional opinions, policy and regulatory changes, and historical deduction to timely track and dig out hot - spot index target products, construct an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot - spots, provide investors with references for short - term market trends, and help them make wiser investment decisions [30] - **Performance**: As of 2025/11/28, the excess return in the past month was 1.93%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.84%. The return in the past week was 1.98%, - 0.36% in the past month [30][33] - **Position**: The positions included 35.39% in the Non - Ferrous Metals 50ETF (fund code: 159652.SZ), 24.30% in the Bosera Hong Kong Stock Dividend ETF (fund code: 513690.SH), 21.43% in the Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF (fund code: 513200.SH), and 18.88% in the Short - Term Financing ETF (fund code: 511360.SH) [34] 3.7 Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to select effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration positions in the bond investment portfolio to improve the long - term return and drawdown control ability of the portfolio [34] - **Performance**: As of 2025/11/28, the excess return in the past month was 0.24%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.09%. The return in the past week was - 0.16%, - 0.15% in the past month, 9.14% since 2024, and 23.25% since its establishment [34][35] - **Position**: The positions included 49.99% in the Ten - Year Treasury Bond ETF (fund code: 511260.SH), 25.01% in the Policy - Financial Bond ETF (fund code: 511520.SH), and 25.00% in the 5 - to 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF (fund code: 511020.SH) [37]
策略周报:缩量修复之后,市场如何布局?-20251130
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-11-30 12:12
Group 1 - The bond market is entering a configuration phase, supported by year-end policy expectations, a loose funding environment, and institutional "early bird" allocations. However, profit-taking intentions among institutions are strong, suggesting that the bond allocation momentum at the end of 2025 may be weaker than in previous years. A trading strategy focused on swing trading is recommended, with the 10-year government bond futures yield around 1.83%, reflecting pessimistic expectations and limited room for significant upward movement. It is advised to gradually allocate high-yield, liquid quality credit bonds while managing overall duration risk, waiting for market sentiment recovery and value reassessment [1][11][12] Group 2 - The stock market is in a phase of consolidation, with a recent recovery showing a shrinking upward trend, indicating a decline in investor trading enthusiasm. In the absence of clear positive catalysts, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase. As the year-end approaches, funding behavior may become more cautious, favoring stability and locking in annual returns, leading to significant structural characteristics in market opportunities. The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December may provide a temporary catalyst, particularly in areas of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, suggesting a new window for allocation [2][12][13] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown significant recovery after a substantial adjustment, with a maximum drawdown from the peak. The rapid adjustment has released some risks, and there is a technical rebound demand in the market. Positive sentiment from the recent US-China presidential call has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a strong rebound in the stock market. Additionally, the rapid growth of Alibaba's AI assistant "Qianwen" has positively impacted AI-related stocks [9][12][13] Group 4 - The US stock market is expected to continue its recovery, with recent retail sales data indicating a marginal slowdown in US economic growth. The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, and the labor market remains weak. The upcoming release of the US October PCE core price index is expected to further confirm that tariffs have not significantly pressured inflation. In this context, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is likely, with plans to formally end balance sheet reduction and continue injecting liquidity into the market, suggesting a trend towards a looser overall monetary environment [12][13]