宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 难有高增长，或有超预期 消费会成为 2026 年宏观热点吗？ 研究结论 内需增速放缓，看好增长质量：10 月经济 数据点评 2025-11-15 为"并跑领跑"时代构筑制度根基：宏观 角度看四中全会与"十五五 ...

Market Strategy - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding the market outlook for December, anticipating a potential rebound due to improving economic fundamentals and macro liquidity conditions, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][7] - It emphasizes the importance of adjusting portfolios based on style and trading factors, suggesting a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks while being prepared for potential volatility [3][7] Industry Strategy - In the home appliance sector, the report identifies three main investment themes: capitalizing on the interest rate cut cycle, structural upgrades, and the competitive advantages of leading companies amid rising costs and slowing domestic sales [5][7] - The report notes that while the overall market for white goods is under pressure, leading brands are gaining market share due to improved operational efficiency and better end-market adaptability [5][7] Theme Strategy - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace by the National Space Administration is highlighted as a significant development, expected to foster high-quality growth in the industry [6][7] - The report outlines the acceleration of collaborative development between rockets and satellites, with advancements in reusable rocket technology and increased satellite production capabilities [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is unlikely to replicate the situation at the end of 2020. The current credit risk event is unlikely to significantly change market expectations or prompt institutions such as banks and insurance companies to accelerate their entry into the bond market, and it may not change the main trading line of interest rate bonds [6][9][16]. - In December, the pressure on the capital market is expected to be controllable, but the overall trading opportunities in the bond market are still limited. The supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, and fiscal spending tends to increase at the end of the year. The bond market may continue its weak and volatile pattern, and the trading space is narrow [6][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some investors compare Vanke's debt extension to Yongmei's default, believing that the bond market will replicate the situation at the end of 2020. However, the impact of Yongmei's default was mainly due to the panic after the collapse of the "state - owned enterprise belief" and the negative feedback of fund products, which is less likely to happen now. The central bank responds quickly to credit risk events, and this event is unlikely to change market expectations significantly [6][9][16]. - In 2020, after Yongmei's default, the credit bond market was sold off, leading to a marginal tightening of the capital market and a significant adjustment of interest rate bonds. There was a negative feedback in the fund product market. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the market gradually stabilized after the financial regulatory authorities' statement [10][11][15]. - In contrast, Vanke's debt - extension has a lower panic - causing effect, and the probability of credit risk spreading to the interest rate and capital markets is weak. The capital market pressure in December is expected to be controllable, but the bond market trading opportunities are limited [16]. 2. This Week's Focus Points in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Next Week's Overseas Data - This week, important data will be released, including China's November foreign exchange reserves, the US November PMI, November ADP employment figures, and the Eurozone's November PMI and October PPI monthly rate [17][19]. 2.2 This Week's Interest Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the interest rate bond issuance scale is expected to be 456.7 billion yuan, which is at a medium level compared to the same period. Among them, the issuance scale of treasury bonds is expected to be about 218 billion yuan, local bonds are planned to be issued at 108.7 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds are expected to be issued at about 130 billion yuan [19][20][21]. 3. Interest Rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal - This week, the reverse repurchase net withdrawal was 16.42 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 1 trillion yuan and 900 billion yuan matured. The treasury deposit was increased by 12 billion yuan, and the central bank bills were offset. The total net injection of open - market operations was 5.58 billion yuan. The capital interest rate showed a structural differentiation, and the repurchase trading volume decreased [26][27]. - The certificate of deposit issuance increased slightly, the net financing was negative, the short - term issuance interest rate increased, and the long - term secondary yield was relatively stable [33]. 3.2 Interest Rates of All Maturities Rose - Last week, due to the unstable liability side of fixed - income products and market concerns about the new fund regulations, the interest rate market adjusted. In the second half of the week, long - term bonds led the marginal repair of spot bonds. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and CDB bonds increased by 1.7bp and 2.5bp respectively. The yields of treasury bonds of all maturities increased, with the 7 - year treasury bond yield rising the most, by about 3.8bp [42][45]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and PTA operating rate decreased, while the asphalt operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel output in mid - November had a negative year - on - year growth rate of - 12.5% [6][54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail improved. The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transaction area slightly narrowed. The SCFI and CCFI comprehensive indices changed by 0.7% and - 0.1% respectively [6][54][57]. - In terms of prices, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices increased. The coking coal price decreased by 4.4%. The building materials comprehensive price index, cement index, and glass index increased. The rebar output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline to 3.85 million tons. The prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by 1.9%, 1.8%, and - 0.4% respectively [6][57].

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 太空算力未来可期，关注核心收益环节 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为 AI 算力以及卫星信息基础设施相关标的都有望受益太空算力的发展： AI 算力：海光信息(688041，买入)、寒武纪-U(688256，未评级)； 卫星基础设施：中科星图(688568，未评级)、佳缘科技(301117，未评级)、航天宏图 (688066，增持)、盛邦安全(688651，未评级)。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期； 商业化进展不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 计算机行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 陈超 | 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 | | --- | --- | | | chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 浦俊懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050004 | | | pujunyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宋鑫宇 | 执业证书编号：S0860524090002 | | | songxinyu@orient ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the first half of FY2026, with a notable performance in its main product line, down jackets, which showed resilience during the off-season [8] - The company’s revenue and profit are projected to accelerate in the second half of FY2026, supported by favorable inventory levels and an extended sales season due to the late Chinese New Year [8] - The company aims to maintain sustainable growth over the next three years through a dual-focus strategy on its down jacket core business and a multi-brand matrix [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2024A is projected at 23,214 million, with a year-on-year growth of 38.4%, and is expected to reach 34,759 million by FY2028E, with a CAGR of approximately 10.6% [3] - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 4,398 million in FY2024A to 6,711 million in FY2028E, reflecting a steady increase in profitability [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 3,074 million in FY2024A to 4,879 million in FY2028E, with a CAGR of 11.8% [3] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.26 in FY2024A to 0.42 in FY2028E [3] Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 6.36 HKD, based on a 17x PE ratio for FY2026 [3][9] - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 17.1 in FY2024A to 10.7 in FY2028E, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [3] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 4.0 in FY2024A to 2.5 in FY2028E, suggesting a potential undervaluation over the forecast period [3]

商业航天司成立，商业航天高质量安全发 展行动计划发布，有望进入快速发展阶段 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 看好（维持） | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 鲍丙文 | 执业证书编号：S0860124070016 | | --- | --- | | | baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 亚太局势不确定性加剧，我国装备建设或 | | --- | | 将提速，关注新质战斗力 | | | --- | --- | | 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 | 2025-11-16 | | 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质 ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 夸克 AI 眼镜发布，看好公司进入 AI 眼镜赛道后的增长潜力与其与内部业务互相引 流赋能的入口潜力。我们维持预测公司 FY2026-2028 营业收入 10344/11570/12460 亿元，经调整净利润为 1093/1706/2027 亿元。我们采用分部估值法，维持上次估值 倍数与目标价 212.43 港元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：AI 眼镜业务进展不及预期，资本投入回报不及预期、AI 大模型技术进展不 及预期、行业竞争加剧、宏观经济不景气。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 941,168 | 996,347 | 1,034,373 | 1,157,017 | 1,246,033 | | 同比增长 (%) | 8.34% | 5.86% | 3.82% | 11.86% | 7.69% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 113,350 | 140,991 | 90,857 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 信用风险扩散可控 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | ...

可转债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 转债补跌幅度有限，交易情绪较弱 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期； 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 收益市场周观察 | | | 正股大幅下跌，转债明显惜售：可转债市 | 2025-11-25 | | 场周观察 | | | 关注永续品种定价偏离带来的机会：信用 | 2025-11-24 | | 债市场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 转债在估值不断积累过后上周开始补跌，百元溢价率显著回调，但并未回到 11 月中 旬均值水平。转债资产由于绝对价格和估值水平均过高因此配置意愿较弱，高位的 支撑来两方面，一是供给小于需求下的稀缺性溢价，二是权益市场强势环境带来的 支撑，两大因素未被彻底打破前转债估值依然坚挺。 ⚫ 我们认为，当前转债性价比已处于低位，估值过高叠加优质个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is gradually improving, with high dividend expectations likely to continue [4] - The effectiveness of the explosive product strategy is significant, and future performance growth is anticipated [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,315 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.0% - For 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 14.2% to 4,559 million yuan, followed by an increase of 8.4% in 2025 to 4,943 million yuan - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 572 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 433 million yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 529 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [6][9][11] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, 0.76 yuan in 2026, and 0.87 yuan in 2027, with adjustments made based on recent reports [6][9] - The target price is set at 11.34 yuan, based on a 15 times PE valuation for 2026 [6][9] Market Performance - The company has shown a 17.3% absolute performance increase over the last 12 months, outperforming the market benchmark [2]