精测电子 300567.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 持续推动先进制程前道量测设备突破 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,429 | 2,565 | 3,175 | 3,917 | 4,983 | | 同比增长 (%) | -11.0% | 5.6% | 23.8% | 23.4% | 27.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 129 | (216) | 190 | 448 | 758 | | 同比增长 (%) | -48.2% | -267.4% | 187.9% | 135.6% | 69.4% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 150 | (98) | 201 | 360 | 564 | | 同比增长 (%) | -44.8% | -165.0% | 306.0% | 79.0% | 56.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.54 | (0.35) | 0.72 | 1.29 | 2.02 | | 毛利率( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 91.15 per share, reflecting a reasonable market capitalization of approximately HKD 877.47 billion [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a robust revenue acceleration with a significant increase in profit margins, achieving a net profit of CNY 7.75 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.2% [10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 26.95 billion, slightly down from previous estimates due to varying recovery rates among different customer segments [3][10]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its operations, which is expected to enhance matching efficiency and support the expansion into new job categories [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at CNY 5,952 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32%, and is expected to reach CNY 10,390 million by 2027, maintaining a steady growth rate of 12% [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to remain high at around 84% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 32% to 34% during the same period [5][12]. - The company has a strong cash position, with cash and cash equivalents expected to grow from CNY 2,473 million in 2023 to CNY 11,235 million by 2027 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 135.66 HKD, based on a reasonable valuation of 829.1 billion HKD [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant competition, leading to a focus on high-value orders and a prolonged period of losses. The report suggests that the worst phase of losses may have passed, but the ongoing competition will likely extend the duration of losses [9][12]. - The company's Q3 performance showed a substantial increase in order volume driven by subsidies, but this has negatively impacted average order value (AOV), resulting in a revenue decline of approximately 12% year-on-year [9]. - The report highlights that the company's market share in high-value orders (AOV above 15 HKD) is over two-thirds, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining this segment despite competitive pressures [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 276,745 million HKD - 2024: 337,592 million HKD - 2025: 366,600 million HKD - 2026: 406,302 million HKD - 2027: 462,787 million HKD - The year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline significantly, with 2025 showing only an 8.59% increase [4][16]. - The company is projected to incur losses in the coming years, with net profit estimates for 2025 at -19,633 million HKD and -25,640 million HKD for 2026 [4][16]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the following for 2026: - Delivery and Flash Purchase: 2,097 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 4,516 billion HKD - In-store and Hotel Travel: 170 billion CNY in after-tax operating profit, valued at 2,437 billion HKD - New Business: 1,216 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 1,338 billion HKD - The total estimated market value for the company is 8,291 billion HKD [11][12].

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转向 ——资产配置模型月报 202512 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 03 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散：——主动型 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 资产配置新思路 | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月报 | 2025-11-01 | | 202511 | | | 大类资产仓位平稳，行业策略推荐有色/科 | 2025-10-11 | | 技等板块：——资产配置模型月报 202510 | | | 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征： | 2025-09-29 | | ——"2+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 70.9 CNY based on a 19x PE ratio for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company has secured a second data center order in North America, enhancing growth certainty and potential for additional business opportunities [3][8]. - The new order is expected to accelerate the company's strategic development in the data center sector, leveraging its comprehensive Gas to Power solution capabilities [8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the company's power segment, supported by the increasing demand for electricity in the North American AI industry [8]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 31.53 billion CNY, 38.18 billion CNY, and 44.64 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [3]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth from 13.91 billion CNY in 2023 to 22.68 billion CNY by 2027, with a notable increase of 27.4% in 2025 [4][10]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 32.8% in 2023 to 35.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 93.47% increase over the past year [6]. - The stock price as of December 3, 2025, was 65.91 CNY, with a 52-week range of 26.91 CNY to 65.91 CNY [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.44 [3][7] Core Views - The automotive electronics business is developing healthily, with a comprehensive customer base covering over 70% of global vehicle brands [10] - The company has completed the industrial chain layout for integrated modules, including sensor, touch module, and display modules for automotive applications [10] - The company is expanding into new fields such as UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass) and UFG (Ultra-Flexible Glass), which are expected to open up growth opportunities [10] - The subsidiary, Changxin Zhikuan, focuses on AI computing power services, with revenue exceeding RMB 60 million, and aims to build a comprehensive service capability in the AI computing sector [10] Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.16, 0.23, and 0.31 respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and gross margin forecasts [3][11] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 8,889 million in 2023 to RMB 18,792 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from RMB 242 million in 2023 to RMB 777 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 36% in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.23 CNY based on a 29x PE valuation for 2026 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.79 billion, 3.59 billion, and 4.39 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for its electronic components and communication parts businesses [4][10]. - The report highlights the positive impact of AI on the passive components industry, with increased demand for MLCCs driven by AI server requirements, which are significantly higher than traditional servers [9]. - The company is positioned well in the MLCC market with a comprehensive product matrix that caters to various sectors, including mobile communication and new energy [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 9.39 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 27.3%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 13.55 billion CNY, growing at 19.2% [6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 39.8% in 2023 to 46.7% in 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to rise from 27.6% to 32.4% over the same period [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.82 CNY in 2023 to 2.29 CNY in 2027 [6].

宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 难有高增长，或有超预期 消费会成为 2026 年宏观热点吗？ 研究结论 内需增速放缓，看好增长质量：10 月经济 数据点评 2025-11-15 为"并跑领跑"时代构筑制度根基：宏观 角度看四中全会与"十五五 ...

Market Strategy - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding the market outlook for December, anticipating a potential rebound due to improving economic fundamentals and macro liquidity conditions, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][7] - It emphasizes the importance of adjusting portfolios based on style and trading factors, suggesting a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks while being prepared for potential volatility [3][7] Industry Strategy - In the home appliance sector, the report identifies three main investment themes: capitalizing on the interest rate cut cycle, structural upgrades, and the competitive advantages of leading companies amid rising costs and slowing domestic sales [5][7] - The report notes that while the overall market for white goods is under pressure, leading brands are gaining market share due to improved operational efficiency and better end-market adaptability [5][7] Theme Strategy - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace by the National Space Administration is highlighted as a significant development, expected to foster high-quality growth in the industry [6][7] - The report outlines the acceleration of collaborative development between rockets and satellites, with advancements in reusable rocket technology and increased satellite production capabilities [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is unlikely to replicate the situation at the end of 2020. The current credit risk event is unlikely to significantly change market expectations or prompt institutions such as banks and insurance companies to accelerate their entry into the bond market, and it may not change the main trading line of interest rate bonds [6][9][16]. - In December, the pressure on the capital market is expected to be controllable, but the overall trading opportunities in the bond market are still limited. The supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, and fiscal spending tends to increase at the end of the year. The bond market may continue its weak and volatile pattern, and the trading space is narrow [6][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some investors compare Vanke's debt extension to Yongmei's default, believing that the bond market will replicate the situation at the end of 2020. However, the impact of Yongmei's default was mainly due to the panic after the collapse of the "state - owned enterprise belief" and the negative feedback of fund products, which is less likely to happen now. The central bank responds quickly to credit risk events, and this event is unlikely to change market expectations significantly [6][9][16]. - In 2020, after Yongmei's default, the credit bond market was sold off, leading to a marginal tightening of the capital market and a significant adjustment of interest rate bonds. There was a negative feedback in the fund product market. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the market gradually stabilized after the financial regulatory authorities' statement [10][11][15]. - In contrast, Vanke's debt - extension has a lower panic - causing effect, and the probability of credit risk spreading to the interest rate and capital markets is weak. The capital market pressure in December is expected to be controllable, but the bond market trading opportunities are limited [16]. 2. This Week's Focus Points in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Next Week's Overseas Data - This week, important data will be released, including China's November foreign exchange reserves, the US November PMI, November ADP employment figures, and the Eurozone's November PMI and October PPI monthly rate [17][19]. 2.2 This Week's Interest Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the interest rate bond issuance scale is expected to be 456.7 billion yuan, which is at a medium level compared to the same period. Among them, the issuance scale of treasury bonds is expected to be about 218 billion yuan, local bonds are planned to be issued at 108.7 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds are expected to be issued at about 130 billion yuan [19][20][21]. 3. Interest Rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal - This week, the reverse repurchase net withdrawal was 16.42 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 1 trillion yuan and 900 billion yuan matured. The treasury deposit was increased by 12 billion yuan, and the central bank bills were offset. The total net injection of open - market operations was 5.58 billion yuan. The capital interest rate showed a structural differentiation, and the repurchase trading volume decreased [26][27]. - The certificate of deposit issuance increased slightly, the net financing was negative, the short - term issuance interest rate increased, and the long - term secondary yield was relatively stable [33]. 3.2 Interest Rates of All Maturities Rose - Last week, due to the unstable liability side of fixed - income products and market concerns about the new fund regulations, the interest rate market adjusted. In the second half of the week, long - term bonds led the marginal repair of spot bonds. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and CDB bonds increased by 1.7bp and 2.5bp respectively. The yields of treasury bonds of all maturities increased, with the 7 - year treasury bond yield rising the most, by about 3.8bp [42][45]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and PTA operating rate decreased, while the asphalt operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel output in mid - November had a negative year - on - year growth rate of - 12.5% [6][54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail improved. The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transaction area slightly narrowed. The SCFI and CCFI comprehensive indices changed by 0.7% and - 0.1% respectively [6][54][57]. - In terms of prices, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices increased. The coking coal price decreased by 4.4%. The building materials comprehensive price index, cement index, and glass index increased. The rebar output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline to 3.85 million tons. The prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by 1.9%, 1.8%, and - 0.4% respectively [6][57].