看好（维持） 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 04 日 赵旭翔 zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 一线城市均已取消非普宅认定 2024-11-27 政策效果延续性较好 2024-11-18 地方化债出台，未来关注增量增量政策 2024-11-11 城中村改造加快 2024-10-21 9.24 以来政策效果强于 5.17，但弱于 23 年初小阳春 核心观点 ⚫ 第 48 周房地产板块指数强于沪深 300 指数，强于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为 1.8%。沪深 300 指数报收 3916.58，周度涨幅为 1.3%；创业板指 数报收 2224.00，周度涨幅 2.2%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2391.95，周度涨幅为 3.1%。 ⚫ 全国政策方面。全国共落实 270 宗配售型保障房项目用地，涉及 65 个城市，以促进 保障房建设。地方政策方面。安徽六安、广东韶关等地调整住房公积金政策，包括 提高贷款额度、降低首付比例、优化使用政策等。广东韶关推出商业住房贷款转公 积金贷款政策，兰 ...

看好（维持） 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 04 日 赵旭翔 zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 一线城市均已取消非普宅认定 2024-11-27 政策效果延续性较好 2024-11-18 地方化债出台，未来关注增量增量政策 2024-11-11 城中村改造加快 2024-10-21 9.24 以来政策效果强于 5.17，但弱于 23 年初小阳春 核心观点 ⚫ 第 48 周房地产板块指数强于沪深 300 指数，强于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为 1.8%。沪深 300 指数报收 3916.58，周度涨幅为 1.3%；创业板指 数报收 2224.00，周度涨幅 2.2%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2391.95，周度涨幅为 3.1%。 ⚫ 全国政策方面。全国共落实 270 宗配售型保障房项目用地，涉及 65 个城市，以促进 保障房建设。地方政策方面。安徽六安、广东韶关等地调整住房公积金政策，包括 提高贷款额度、降低首付比例、优化使用政策等。广东韶关推出商业住房贷款转公 积金贷款政策，兰 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.79 yuan, based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a 6.78% YoY decline in revenue to 7.396 billion yuan and a 12.44% YoY drop in net profit to 1.202 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue fell 11.07% YoY to 2.666 billion yuan, while net profit decreased 18.49% YoY to 443 million yuan [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak upstream real estate completions, with China's residential completion area down 23.9% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's leading position in the kitchen appliance market remains strong, with top market shares in range hoods and cooktops, and significant presence in dishwashers and built-in ovens [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 53.18% in Q3 2024, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency [1] - The company's net profit margin declined by 1.5 percentage points to 16.61% in Q3 2024 due to increased sales expenses [1] Industry Outlook - The kitchen appliance industry is expected to recover, supported by nationwide appliance replacement policies [1] - Retail sales of key kitchen appliances showed strong growth in September 2024, with range hoods up 43% YoY and cooktops up 37% YoY [1] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, retail sales of kitchen appliances grew significantly, with range hoods up 30% YoY and dishwashers up 32% YoY [1] Financial Forecasts - The report revises down the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.673 billion yuan, 1.762 billion yuan, and 1.875 billion yuan, respectively [2][7] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.77 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 1.99 yuan, respectively [7] - Revenue growth is expected to rebound to 5.4% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, following a 3.4% decline in 2024 [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually, reaching 52.6% by 2026 [5] Market Position - The company maintains a dominant market position in key kitchen appliance categories, with leading market shares in range hoods and cooktops [1] - The company's strong brand and product portfolio position it to benefit from the industry's recovery [1]

双十一周期延长势能不减，平台投入加大 增长亮眼 ——2024 年双十一跟踪点评 核心观点 ⚫ 大盘增长明显，受益国补家电 3C 领跑。据星图数据，2024 年全网双十一实现 GMV 14418 亿元，yoy+26.6%（因统计区间延长绝对额和增速均有高估），其中货 架电商/直播电商实现 GMV 11093/3325 亿元，yoy+20.1%/+54.6%。据国家邮政局 数据，10 月 14 日-11 月 11 日期间全国快递揽收量达 164.4 亿件，yoy+32.2%，环 比 8/9 月明显提速（yoy+19.5%/18.7%）。分品类看，受益于以旧换新政策红利， 家电/3C 双十一 GMV 同比增长 26.5%/23.1%（2023 年为-2.6%/-2.9%），提速明显 领跑全品类，其次为美妆个护、服装等品类。 ⚫ 周期延长高潮分化，投入增加带动 GMV 明显增长。本次双十一各平台均增长良 好，据测算可比口径下双十一淘天/京东/拼多多/抖音/快手 GMV 增速分别为 11%/13%/19%/30%/20%，整体大盘低双位数增长。我们分析原因有二：1、开始时 间提早一周以上，且京东、抖音取消预售。周期延长 ...

国内稀缺的高端高成长黄金珠宝品牌 核心观点 ⚫ 国内率先推广"古法金"概念的品牌，差异化高端定位奠定成功基石。老铺黄金创立于 2009 年，是经中国黄金协会认证的率先推广"古法黄金"概念的品牌，也是中国古法手工金器专业 第一品牌。公司近年正处于快速增长阶段，2021-23 年收入和归母净利润的 CAGR 分别为 58.6%和 91.2%。创始人拥有多元的文化产品的商业化运营经历，管理层合作稳定。 ⚫ 古法黄金有较大增长潜力。根据公司招股说明书，2023 年中国古法黄金珠宝市场规模为 1,573 亿，预计 2023-2028 年 CAGR 为 21.8%，快于普通黄金珠宝和硬金珠宝。我们认为，老铺黄 金未来有望凭借从品牌定位、产品创新、渠道营销到战略发展层面的体系化综合竞争优势，充 分享受行业红利。 ⚫ 品牌定位：深耕黄金领域的高端定位弥补了国内珠宝市场空白。老铺黄金弥补了国内黄金珠宝 高端品牌的空白，成为少数被高净值人群认可的本土高端黄金珠宝品牌。在定价模式上，老铺 采用按件计价方式，与传统黄金珠宝品牌的按克计价+加工费的传统定价模式有明显区分。伴 随金价的持续上升，老铺"黄金+高端品牌"的双重属性和运营模式 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain in China [4] Core Views - NEV sales in China from January to September 2024 reached 8.32 million units, a 33% YoY increase, with power battery installations at 346.6GWh, up 36% YoY [2] - The lithium battery industry has entered a recovery phase since Q1 2024, with upstream lithium resources and downstream battery sectors showing significant recovery [2] - The industry is expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2025, driven by demand from power, energy storage, and export sectors [2] Key Industry Developments - Qingtao Energy launched the second phase of its semi-solid-state battery production line, with a planned total investment of RMB 10 billion and an annual capacity of 15GWh [21] - CATL, in a consortium, invested over RMB 7 billion to develop lithium resources in Bolivia, aiming to produce 35,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually [22][23] - Shenzhen Capchem invested RMB 352 million in Jiangxi Shilei Fluorine Materials to secure a stable supply of key electrolyte raw materials [38][41] - Yinglian Co. received a mass production order for composite current collectors from a South Korean customer, with plans to supply 2 million square meters of composite aluminum foil and 1 million square meters of composite copper foil in 2025 [44][46] Lithium Battery Material Prices - Cobalt products: Electrolytic cobalt (RMB 178,000/ton, -0.28%), Cobalt tetroxide (RMB 116,000/ton, -0.22%), Cobalt sulfate (RMB 27,000/ton, -0.37%) [1] - Lithium products: Lithium carbonate (RMB 78,000/ton, -1.14%), Lithium hydroxide (RMB 68,000/ton, +0.48%) [1] - Nickel products: Electrolytic nickel (RMB 128,000/ton, +0.75%), Nickel sulfate (RMB 30,000/ton, -0.40%) [1] - Midstream materials: Ternary cathode (523 power type RMB 109,000/ton, 0.00%; 622 single crystal type RMB 122,000/ton, 0.00%; 811 single crystal type RMB 151,000/ton, 0.00%), Lithium iron phosphate (RMB 39,000/ton, 0.00%) [1] - Electrolyte: Lithium iron phosphate type (RMB 18,000/ton, +1.10%), Ternary type (RMB 18,000/ton, +1.13%), Lithium hexafluorophosphate (RMB 67,000/ton, 0.00%) [1] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch: CATL (300750, Buy), Shangtai Technology (001301, Not Rated), Kedali (002850, Not Rated), Eve Energy (300014, Not Rated), Shenzhen Capchem (300037, Not Rated) [18] - Charging infrastructure: Wanma (002276, Buy), Xinde New Materials (301349, Not Rated) [18] - Solid-state battery: Shanghai Xiba (603200, Not Rated), Fengyuan (002805, Not Rated), Youyan New Materials (600206, Not Rated) [18] - Hydrogen energy: Kewell (688551, Not Rated), Huaguang Energy (600475, Not Rated), Shihua Machinery (000852, Not Rated) [18]

美国光伏关税落地，国内风机价格触底 ——电力设备行业周报 核心观点 ⚫ 美国 AD 关税终落地，光伏板块周期见底静待复苏。美国商务部宣布对柬埔寨、马 来西亚、泰国和越南的晶体光伏电池（无论是否组装成组件）反倾销税（AD）调 查的初步肯定性裁定，对东南亚四国的反倾销税率范围在 0-271.28%。市场担忧 的关税问题落地，二级市场预期中较大风险压力落地消化，光伏板块周期见底静待 复苏。 ⚫ 中国风机价格探底，出口市场潜力可期。据 BloombergNEF 预测，2024 年全球风 电行业的新型装机容量将达到 124GW，到 2030 年，中国将占全球新增装机容量的 60%。补贴逐步退坡和各种复杂的驱动因素和促成因素共同导致了价格下跌。风电 市场竞争激烈，价格下跌对中国厂商的利润率构成挑战，厂商继续寻找新利润增长 点。中国风机制造商正走出亚洲，在中东、非洲和拉美市场立足，越来越多厂商瞄 准利润丰厚的出口市场。 ⚫ 政策导向逐步清晰，我国新型储能蓄势待发。近期，国家能源局连发两份文件，以 保障电网安全、新型电力系统高质量发展。分别为《电网安全风险管控办法》， 《国家能源局关于加强电力安全治理 以高水平安全保障新型电 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 03 日 | --- | --- | |--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号： S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号： S0860520010001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号： S0860518050001 香港证监会牌照： BQJ932 | | | | 戴思崴 daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------- ...

三季度营收同比高增，汽车电子持续布局 核心观点 ⚫ 2024 年第三季度营业收入 5.17 亿元，再次达到历史新高。第三季度营收环比增长 6%，同比增长 87%，连续五个季度营业收入实现环比增长；归母净利润-1.42 亿 元，扣非归母净利润-1.55 亿元。2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 13.7 亿元， 同比增长 36%，归属于上市公司股东净利润-4.08 亿元，扣非归母净利润-4.41 亿 元，经营活动产生的现金流净额 3289 万元。 ⚫ 汽车电子持续拓展，营收快速增长，市场需求旺盛。受益于汽车电子市场需求的增 长和公司在汽车领域的持续投入，24Q3 汽车电子领域营收达 1.96 亿元，环比增长 26%，单季度营收占比达 38%，环比提升 6 pct。公司在汽车三电领域，尤其是电动 车动力电机电控部分的驱动芯片，市场份额增长显著；多通道尾灯驱动芯片、磁电 流传感器芯片以及部分接口芯片已实现大规模出货。今年，马达驱动类芯片和集成 式电机驱动 SOC 芯片也开始在市场上取得头部客户的多个项目定点，预计明年将进 入规模量产阶段并实现快速增长。高边开关类产品将在明年陆续量产，针对能源和 汽车电源领域的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for SAIC Motor with a target price of **20.14 CNY** [2][5] Core Views - SAIC Motor's overall sales in November showed a **19.1% month-on-month (MoM) increase**, reaching **478,800 units**, despite a **7.1% year-on-year (YoY) decline** [1] - Cumulative sales from January to November were **3.53 million units**, a **19.5% YoY decrease** [1] - SAIC Volkswagen's sales in November grew **10.4% YoY** and **16.7% MoM**, marking the first time since April that both YoY and MoM growth were achieved [1] - SAIC General Motors' sales in November increased **55.1% MoM**, although they declined **35.4% YoY** [1] - SAIC Motor's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in November reached **174,900 units**, up **16.1% YoY** and **11.3% MoM**, with cumulative NEV sales for the year reaching **1.08 million units**, a **19.5% YoY increase** [1] - SAIC's IM Motors achieved sales of **10,007 units** in November, marking the second consecutive month of sales exceeding 10,000 units [1] - The company is expected to benefit from Shanghai's state-owned enterprise reforms, which could improve its operational capabilities and market competitiveness [1] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts **EPS** for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at **0.89 CNY**, **1.06 CNY**, and **1.15 CNY**, respectively [2] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be **659.8 billion CNY**, with a **9.1% YoY decline**, followed by an **8.3% increase** in 2025 and a **6.4% increase** in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be **10.33 billion CNY** in 2024, **12.30 billion CNY** in 2025, and **13.27 billion CNY** in 2026 [4] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from **10.2%** in 2024 to **10.9%** in 2026 [4] - ROE is expected to rise from **3.5%** in 2024 to **4.2%** in 2026 [4] Sales Performance - SAIC Motor's sales have shown continuous improvement since August, with September and October sales growing **21.6%** and **28.3% MoM**, respectively [1] - SAIC Volkswagen's cumulative sales from January to November were **1.02 million units**, a **5.1% YoY decline** [1] - SAIC General Motors' cumulative sales from January to November were **371,000 units**, a **58.6% YoY decline** [1] - SAIC Motor's overseas and export sales in November were **94,200 units**, a **20.0% YoY decline** and **9.6% MoM decrease** [1] Market and Industry Insights - The IM LS6 model, featuring advanced configurations such as the Lizard Digital Chassis and a quasi-900V platform, has shown strong competitiveness, with pre-orders exceeding **11,000 units** within 48 hours of launch [1] - The company is expected to accelerate reforms under the support of the Shanghai municipal government, focusing on organizational restructuring, business reshaping, and rebuilding competitive advantages [1]