Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The social services sector is showing resilience during the off-peak season, supported by fundamental data and a shift in funding styles, creating conditions for relative returns across industries [4]. - Key areas of focus include mid-cap blue-chip characteristics, growth potential, and recovery prospects in performance, particularly in OTA, hotels, human resources, and select dining and scenic spots [4]. Summary by Sections Hotels - The hotel sector demonstrates strong fundamentals with a recovery in performance. Huazhu reported a revenue of 7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous growth guidance [8]. - The national hotel RevPAR turned positive in October 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating a stable volume and rising prices [8]. Scenic Spots - The demand for scenic spots remains robust due to the autumn holiday and the upcoming winter season, with double-digit growth in visitor numbers reported [8]. - For instance, the Jianmen Pass scenic area saw a 30% increase in visitors during the autumn holiday, and hotel bookings in Zhejiang rose by 68% [8]. Duty-Free - The duty-free shopping scene in Hainan is recovering, with sales reaching 506 million yuan from November 1-7, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.86% [8]. - This recovery is attributed to low base effects, new policies, and promotional activities, alongside a shift in consumer behavior due to international travel restrictions [8]. OTA (Online Travel Agencies) - Ctrip's Q3 2025 report showed a net operating income of 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [8]. - The international OTA orders grew by about 60%, with inbound travel orders doubling, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel demand [8].

Group 1: Research Conclusion and Core View - The report focuses on the opportunities brought by the pricing deviation of perpetual bonds in the credit bond market. In a low - volatility environment, the year - end support for credit bonds mainly comes from the demand of allocation - type institutions, but the intensity of pre - emptive actions should not be over - expected. The report suggests three main directions for exploring urban investment bonds: (1) conduct more credit spreading within 3 years; (2) select bonds with a steep yield curve (>25bp) and certain liquidity between 3 - 5 years; (3) pay attention to the pricing deviation of perpetual and private placement bonds [5][8]. Group 2: Credit Bond Weekly Review 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the long - term issuer credit rating of Longfor Group Holdings Limited was downgraded from "BB" to "BB -" by S&P, and its senior unsecured notes' long - term rating was downgraded from "BB -" to "B+". Also, several companies had major negative events, such as Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. with debt overdue and multiple major lawsuits, and Guanghui Automobile Service Co., Ltd. involved in an execution case [13][14]. 2.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 17 to November 23, the issuance volume of credit bonds exceeded 400 billion yuan again, reaching 403.8 billion yuan, a 49% increase from the previous period. The total repayment amount increased to 262.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 141.6 billion yuan. The number of cancelled or postponed bond issuances increased to 5, with a total scale of 5.5 billion yuan. The primary issuance cost increased slightly, with the average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ bonds rising by 5bp and 7bp respectively [15][16]. 2.3 Secondary Market Trading - Last week, the valuations of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated narrowly, with most remaining unchanged. The credit spreads narrowed at the short - end and widened at the long - end. The 3Y - 1Y term spreads of each rating narrowed, while the 5Y - 1Y term spreads widened slightly. The AA - AAA grade spread widened by 2bp for 3 - year bonds and narrowed by 3bp for 5 - year bonds. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in each province were mostly flat or narrowed, with Yunnan having the largest narrowing of 3bp. The industry spreads of industrial bonds fluctuated within ±1bp, with the real estate industry narrowing by 3bp. The weekly turnover rate increased by 0.19pct to 1.89%. Among real - estate enterprises, the spreads of Times Holdings, Rongqiao, Yuzhou Hongtu, and Vanke widened significantly [18][20][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The Grasberg copper mine has announced a resumption plan, with expectations for mid-term copper smelting fees to have upward potential [2] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, is expected to resume large-scale production by Q2 2026, maintaining a copper output of 1 billion pounds (approximately 454,000 tons) in 2026, with an average annual output potentially reaching 1.6 billion pounds (approximately 726,000 tons) from 2027 to 2029 [7] - The resumption of multiple copper mines is anticipated to alleviate supply tensions, with the Cobre Panamá mine also expected to restart production, contributing an additional 300,000 to 350,000 tons of copper metal annually [7] - The growth rate of copper smelting output from 2026 to 2027 is expected to be lower than that of copper supply, indicating potential marginal improvement in smelting fees [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in major copper smelting companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy), with other notable mentions including Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, highlighting the dynamics and trends affecting these sectors [1] Copper Mining Sector - Grasberg's production is expected to stabilize and grow, contributing to a projected copper production growth rate of approximately 3.3% in 2026 [7] - The reopening of Cobre Panamá is also a significant factor in easing supply constraints [7] Copper Smelting Sector - The anticipated growth in copper smelting output is expected to lag behind the supply side, suggesting a favorable outlook for smelting fees [7] - Investment recommendations are made for companies with strong resource bases and production expansion potential [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific situation is increasing, which may accelerate the equipment construction in China, focusing on new combat capabilities [2][12] - China's high-end aviation equipment showcased at the Dubai Airshow is expected to further expand the military trade market [12][15] - The Fujian aircraft carrier has conducted its first live training at sea, indicating a significant advancement in operational capabilities and technology [12][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for new combat capabilities and military trade as key growth areas [19] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights various investment targets across different segments, including: - Engine and fuel chain: Companies like Xi'an Aero Engine (600893), Western Superconducting (688122), and others [19][20] - New quality and domains: Companies such as Aerospace Electronics (600879), Haige Communication (002465), and others [19][20] - Military electronics: Companies like Aerospace Electric (002025), Zhonghang Optical (002179), and others [19][20] - Military trade and main equipment: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760), AVIC Chengfei (302132), and others [19][20] Industry News and Market Performance - The report notes that the defense and military industry index has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only -1.72% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's -3.90% [22][25] - The report provides a detailed analysis of weekly market performance, indicating that the defense and military sector remains resilient amid broader market declines [22][25] Key Events and Developments - The report outlines significant recent events, including: - The U.S. government approved a new round of arms sales to Japan, which may heighten regional tensions and prompt China to expedite its military equipment development [12][9] - The successful live training of the Fujian aircraft carrier, showcasing advanced operational capabilities [12][18] - The participation of Chinese high-end military equipment in international exhibitions, enhancing China's presence in the global military trade market [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence from market sentiment, suggesting that a reduction in industry risk assessment and increasing confidence in a medium to long-term recovery path are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. Despite a short-term acceleration in market decline, expectations for enhanced real estate policies in December and the first quarter of 2026 are strengthening the investment value of quality real estate stocks [2][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Expectations - Recent reports indicate that the Chinese decision-makers are considering a new round of real estate policies, including interest subsidies for new personal housing loans, increasing personal income tax deductions for mortgage payments, and further reducing housing transaction taxes. This has led to a rise in real estate stock prices. The effectiveness of such policies, particularly interest subsidies, is crucial for short-term market recovery, depending on the magnitude and duration of the subsidies [3][4]. Market Data - In October, the real estate market showed significant declines, with a 19% year-on-year drop in sales area (61.47 million square meters) and a 24% decrease in sales value (CNY 597.7 billion), marking the largest declines since the second half of 2024. New personal mortgage loans fell by 30% year-on-year to CNY 95 billion, and development investment decreased by 23% year-on-year. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the report emphasizes the need for substantial fiscal policies, such as interest subsidies, to restore market confidence [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks for investment: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Binjiang Group (002244, Not Rated), and Jindi Group (600383, Accumulate) [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" with a target price of 124.52 HKD per share [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's core revenue for Q3 2025 was 24.7 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 7%, primarily due to a decline in online marketing revenue, which fell by 18% to 15.3 billion CNY. Non-online marketing revenue, however, increased by 21% to 9.3 billion CNY. The change in revenue structure led to a gross margin decline to 47.3%, down 11.5 percentage points year-over-year. The company reported a core operating loss of 15 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of 3.8 billion CNY for Q3 2025. The company is currently transitioning from traditional search engine advertising to AI-driven business models, with expectations of short-term pressure on traditional advertising revenue but potential improvements in profitability following asset impairments [8][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 19.3 billion CNY, 19.5 billion CNY, and 22.0 billion CNY, respectively. The PE valuation method suggests a reasonable value of 311.7 billion CNY, equivalent to 342.5 billion HKD, based on a 16x PE for 2026 [9][11]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million CNY): 134,598 in 2023, projected to decline to 128,951 in 2025, before recovering to 144,353 in 2027 - Gross Margin: 52% in 2023, expected to decrease to 44% in 2025, then recover to 47% by 2027 - Net Profit Margin: 21% in 2023, projected to drop to 15% in 2025, and stabilize at 15% in 2027 - Earnings Per Share (CNY): 10.24 in 2023, declining to 7.12 in 2025, and recovering to 8.09 by 2027 [4][11].

Group 1: Investment Strategy for Industrial Bonds - The report emphasizes that the coupon strategy is superior to the duration strategy, with a focus on identifying yield enhancement opportunities [3][13] - It suggests that within the 2Y-1Y range, riding the yield curve can effectively balance risk and return, as the yield spread for industrial bonds is generally greater than that of local government bonds [19][15] - The report highlights that the yield spread for perpetual bonds is limited, but certain bonds with thicker spreads within 3Y can provide value for allocation [8][19] Group 2: Industry Analysis - In the construction sector, the report notes that the industry is facing increasing competition, with a lack of fundamental support for valuation, leading to continued volatility [8][19] - The steel industry is experiencing weak demand and cost pressures, with a focus on winter storage as a potential short-term strategy [8][19] - In the coal sector, supply constraints and expectations of a cold winter are expected to support coal prices, with a focus on high-valuation companies like Jinneng Group [8][19] - The real estate market anticipates increased policy support in Q4, with state-owned enterprises showing significant absolute returns [8][19] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report indicates that the copper price is expected to rise due to ongoing supply adjustments, while aluminum prices are projected to remain stable [8][19] - The cement industry is facing supply-demand imbalances, with limited opportunities for investment due to low yield spreads [8][19] - Overall, the report concludes that the value of digging deeper into industrial bonds is limited, and maintaining a conventional allocation strategy is advisable [8][19]

Employment Data Summary - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expectation of 50,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August 2025[6] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.25% month-on-month, down from 0.41% in the previous month[6] Sector Contributions - The service sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 87,000 jobs, with education and healthcare accounting for 59,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality for 47,000 jobs[8] - Professional and business services saw a decline of 20,000 jobs, marking a continuous decrease over five months[6][8] - Construction and retail sectors also contributed positively, with 19,000 and 14,000 jobs added respectively[8] Labor Market Trends - The three-month moving average for job additions is approximately 62,000, indicating a downward trend[6][9] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.4%[6] - The number of unemployed individuals rose to 7.6 million, reflecting a significant increase in discouraged workers[6][15] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates if the job market weakens further, with a target endpoint rate of 3% under baseline conditions[6] - The upcoming December data release is critical for assessing the employment trend and potential policy adjustments[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced a significant decline of 6.75% recently, with a notable single-day drop of 5.26% on November 21. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased, leading some investors to believe that the sector may continue to face weakness [9][13] - Contrarily, the report suggests that the non-ferrous sector presents a buying opportunity, particularly in segments that have been unfairly punished. The recent downturn was largely influenced by a sharp decline in the lithium carbonate sector, which has created volatility in both commodity and stock markets [9][13] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is highlighted as a defensive play with a high dividend yield of around 6%. The report anticipates demand growth and price increases in 2026, driven by U.S. fiscal expansion and rising industrial metal demand [9][14] - The gold sector is expected to maintain a volatile short-term price trend, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to weakening U.S. dollar credit and rising inflation expectations [9][14] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes the need to focus on undervalued segments within the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum and gold, which are expected to rebound [9][13][14] Steel Industry - Steel production has seen a slight decline in iron output, while demand remains strong. The average daily output of iron from 247 steel companies is reported at 236.28 thousand tons, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.25% [15][20] - Social and steel mill inventories are on a downward trend, with total inventory decreasing by 3.01% week-on-week [22] - The profitability of steel products is under pressure due to rising costs, with the price of Australian iron ore increasing by 0.77% and the price of iron concentrate slightly decreasing by 1.02% [25][30] New Energy Metals - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 67.28% year-on-year, reaching 73,420 tons, while hydroxide production saw a slight decline [36][40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 increasing by 19.94% and 18.65% year-on-year, respectively [40][43] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 93,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.59% [45][46] Industrial Metals - The report notes a slight decline in metal prices, but they remain at high levels overall. The global refined copper output has increased, although supply growth is lagging behind demand [54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive impact of India's cancellation of BIS certification and anti-dumping duties, which is expected to boost PVC exports. India is the largest importer of PVC globally, with an estimated import volume of approximately 3 million tons in 2024, primarily driven by agricultural and construction demands [2][8] - The report emphasizes the anticipated recovery in chemical industry sentiment and the sustained high growth expectations in energy storage, particularly in the MDI, PVC, and phosphate chemical sectors [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on PVC-related companies that are expected to see a recovery in demand, including Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Tianyuan Co., with Wanhu Chemical rated as "Buy" due to its leading position in MDI. In the phosphate chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua are highlighted, while in the oxalic acid industry, Hualu Hengsheng, Huayi Group, and Wankai New Materials are recommended as "Buy" [3] Industry Insights - The report notes that the demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise due to increased energy storage needs, particularly from lithium iron phosphate. The development of the oxalic acid route is anticipated to significantly boost demand, with limited new domestic production capacity projected [8]