Group 1: PMI Trends - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a return to expansion[8] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, a significant increase of 2.4 percentage points from November, marking a new high for 2025[8] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8% in December from 49.6% in November, driven by favorable weather and policy support[8] Group 2: Export Dynamics - New export orders PMI rose from 47.6% to 49% in December, suggesting potential recovery in export demand[8] - Optimistic scenario indicates a rebound in U.S. consumer goods import demand, supported by textile and electronic exports[8] - Pessimistic scenario highlights potential "export rush" due to Mexico's tariff adjustments and EU carbon tariffs, impacting specific sectors[4] Group 3: Structural Disparities - Large enterprises showed significant PMI recovery, while small enterprises experienced a decline, indicating a mismatch in export capabilities[4] - Supply chain congestion in consumer goods sectors, particularly textiles and electronics, reflects urgent production demands[4] - The disparity in PMI recovery across different enterprise sizes suggests varying capacities for "export rush" activities[4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a focus on equity products and mid-cap blue-chip industries for asset allocation in January 2026, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares and commodities, while maintaining a neutral stance on U.S. stocks and bonds [2][61] - The report highlights that A-shares are expected to experience slight upward movement with limited odds but a relatively high win rate historically in January, while the overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish [11][61] - The performance of various asset allocation strategies since 2025 is noted, with low-volatility strategies yielding an annualized return of 6.2%, medium-low volatility strategies at 11.7%, and medium-high volatility strategies at 17.6% [7][62] Group 2 - The industry rotation strategy for January recommends focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, telecommunications, electronics, and media, driven by a return of risk appetite [42][48] - The report indicates that the industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks, achieving an annualized return of 40% since 2025, significantly surpassing the performance of the CSI 800 and mixed equity funds [44][45] - The ETF strategy for January includes recommendations for ETFs in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, telecommunications, information technology, and gaming, aligning with the broader asset allocation strategy [50][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the market benchmark [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent decline in coal prices has halted, with thermal coal prices expected to rebound due to decreasing port inventories. Coking coal prices are also anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to seasonal replenishment [3][9]. - The coal sector has experienced a continuous pullback, leading to pessimistic market expectations regarding coal prices. However, the stabilization of prices may improve market sentiment and present investment opportunities [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of international events on global energy prices, particularly focusing on the situation in Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally [9]. - It notes that the coal supply has significantly contracted towards the end of the year, with thermal coal prices expected to rise as port inventories decrease [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices at ports have stopped declining, while coking coal prices are supported by seasonal demand despite weak replenishment efforts from downstream sectors [9][10]. - In December, port coal prices fell by 16.9%, and the coal sector index dropped by 4.1%. The current price-to-book ratio for the coal industry is at 1.42, indicating a historical median valuation [9][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a seasonal decline in coal mine operating rates and a return to normal temperature levels, which affects demand [30][32]. - Port inventories have shown significant reduction, with various ports reporting lower coal stocks compared to previous periods [43][44]. Shipping and Logistics - The report mentions that shipping volumes on the Daqin line are low, and the number of anchored vessels remains subdued, indicating logistical challenges in the coal supply chain [61][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the beauty and personal care industry, specifically focusing on PDRN applications [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that PDRN (Polydeoxyribonucleotide) is expected to unleash stronger commercial potential due to increasing registrations and search metrics. The extraction of PDRN is transitioning from animal sources to microbial fermentation and synthetic biology, laying a solid foundation for accelerated applications in the medical beauty and skincare sectors [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that domestic beauty companies are likely to redefine the value boundaries of PDRN, with leading firms accelerating their strategies in this competitive landscape [3][4]. Summary by Sections PDRN Overview - PDRN, derived from salmon and other sources, has a high similarity to human DNA (98%) and is known for its skin repair and cell regeneration properties. Its historical development spans from the 15th century to its current applications in medical aesthetics and cosmetics [8][13][19]. Market Growth Potential - The PDRN market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates indicating an increase from USD 0.72 billion in 2024 to USD 8.55 billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 43%. The demand for anti-aging products is a core driver of this growth [8][30]. Competitive Landscape - Domestic companies are actively entering the PDRN medical and skincare sectors, with significant advancements in extraction technologies. Companies like Huaxi Biological and Lepu Medical are leading the charge in developing PDRN-based products [8][30][34]. Key Mechanisms and Benefits - PDRN operates through two main mechanisms: acting as an agonist for the adenosine A2A receptor to suppress inflammation and providing nucleotides for DNA synthesis, thus promoting cell regeneration and tissue repair [34][36]. - The primary benefits of PDRN include skin repair, anti-inflammatory effects, and anti-aging properties, making it suitable for various cosmetic and medical applications [34][39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The total supply of game licenses continues to increase, with a significant rise in new products expected in 2026. The number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,771, a 25.07% increase from 1,416 in 2024, marking a new high since the regulations were established in 2018 [8] - The approval process for imported game licenses has been optimized, with the average number of licenses issued per batch increasing from approximately 80 in 2023 to 160 in the second half of 2025, indicating a supportive policy environment [8] - The number of cross-platform headlining games has significantly increased, with 1,729 mobile games, 159 client games, 19 web games, and 8 console games licensed in 2025. The growth of cross-platform products is expected to continue, driven by high-end engine usage [8] - The gaming market is expected to see intense competition in genres such as simulation, RPG, and open-world games in 2026, with a notable presence of low ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) games that may exhibit stronger resilience against deflationary pressures [8] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies with a reserve of cross-platform headlining projects and those with a strong portfolio of enduring games that have high daily active users (DAU) but low ARPU. Recommended stocks include Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy), NetEase (09999, Buy), and others [3] Industry Dynamics - The gaming industry is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with a notable increase in the number of game licenses and an improved business environment for game developers due to policy support [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of performance that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [4][12]. Core Insights - The tourism industry is expected to return to stable growth, supported by favorable policies anticipated in 2026, with both sentiment and fundamentals improving [3]. - The report highlights a recovery in demand for hotels and scenic spots, with a focus on structured opportunities in the market [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of segment differentiation, as various sub-sectors within the industry are expected to perform differently based on their fundamentals and seasonal dynamics [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sub-sectors benefiting from tourism, as well as those showing signs of recovery and new consumer trends. Recommended stocks include China Duty Free Group (601888, Buy), among others [3]. Market Performance - The report notes that the overall market, represented by the CSI 300 index, increased by 1.9%, while the consumer services sector saw a rise of 1.8% during the week of December 22-26 [7]. Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free shopping in Hainan has shown remarkable growth, with sales reaching 1.1 billion yuan during the week of December 18-24, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [7]. Scenic Spots and Ice-Snow Tourism - The report anticipates a stable growth return for scenic spots, particularly those with regional and thematic attractions, as evidenced by increased bookings for ice-snow tourism [7]. Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - The report maintains a positive outlook on OTAs, predicting continued growth driven by the recovery of outbound travel and the aging population's travel needs [7]. Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is showing signs of recovery, with data indicating a slight increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) in October, suggesting that hotel profitability is at a bottoming phase [7]. New Consumption Trends - The report identifies opportunities in new consumption, particularly in affordable dining options and brands that cater to changing consumer preferences [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that gold and silver prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations but may trend upwards in the medium term, with the average prices of gold and silver likely to rise gradually. This suggests that the equity sector related to precious metals may outperform the commodity sector [8] - The report highlights that the processing fees for copper concentrate have been finalized, and there are pessimistic expectations for the smelting sector, indicating potential challenges ahead [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, providing a dynamic tracking of market conditions and price movements [1][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with substantial resource reserves and expected production increases, such as Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy). Other companies mentioned include Zhongjin Gold (600489, Not Rated) and Shandong Gold International (000975, Not Rated) [3] Market Trends - The report notes significant price volatility in silver, with a sharp decline of 9.08% on December 29, 2025, while gold also saw a decrease of 4.42%. Despite this, the report anticipates that gold prices may maintain a low volatility range and have the potential for medium-term growth [8] - The report emphasizes that the equity sector has lagged behind the commodity sector in terms of price increases, but as gold and silver prices stabilize, companies with strong performance in precious metals are expected to catch up [8]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 91.35 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average of 45 times for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to list in Hong Kong and increase investment in its Mexican factory, expecting overseas business and seating operations to be key profit growth drivers [2][9]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.037 billion CNY, 1.366 billion CNY, and 1.746 billion CNY respectively, with significant revenue growth anticipated [3][5]. - The company aims to enhance its global business presence and increase seating capacity, with a focus on R&D investment [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 10.572 billion CNY in 2023 to 26.006 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.4% [5][11]. - Operating profit is projected to increase from 928 million CNY in 2023 to 1.983 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 27.8% in 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 6.7% by 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 18.3% [5][11].

Asset Performance - The report indicates a strong performance in equities and commodities, with A-shares and precious metals leading the gains[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly increase of 1.88% and a year-to-date increase of 21.49%[12] - The CSI 500 Index experienced a weekly rise of 4.03% and a year-to-date increase of 34.49%[12] Market Expectations - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, significantly above the expected 3.3%[19] - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.00 mark, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[23] - The report anticipates continued strength in risk assets due to expectations of U.S. economic downturn and policy easing[22] Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends a bullish stance on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and telecommunications[28] - It suggests monitoring A-share equity-related index enhancement strategies and commodity-related CTA strategies[54] Risk Considerations - The report highlights potential extreme risk events, such as U.S.-China relations and unexpected global geopolitical events, which could disrupt historical patterns[4] - It also notes the risk of quantitative indicators becoming ineffective, as historical data may not reliably predict future outcomes[4]