Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The export volume of excavators accelerated in November, indicating an increase in industry prosperity. The total export of crawler excavators reached 27,752 units, with a total value of 872 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.36% and 26.67% [8] - The growth in export volume is primarily structural, showcasing the enhanced competitiveness of China's construction machinery, which is expected to improve future export certainty. The significant contribution from the export of used machinery is anticipated to stabilize or increase the utilization rate of domestic equipment, supporting long-term healthy growth in the industry [3][8] - The market's expectations for industry health improvement are likely to rise, leading to a decrease in risk assessment, which is favorable for mid-cap blue-chip investment opportunities [3] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Export Performance**: In November, the export volume of excavators exceeded 50% growth, surpassing the cumulative growth rate of 35% from January to November. The demand from export countries showed volatility, but the overall growth rate remained resilient, indicating a strengthening of China's engineering machinery competitiveness [8] - **Used Machinery Export Impact**: The customs statistics indicate that the export of excavators is higher than the industry association's statistics, with significant contributions from used machinery exports. This trend is expected to lead to a decrease in domestic excavator ownership, which will stabilize or increase utilization rates, benefiting long-term industry growth [8] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies several investment opportunities in the sector, including companies such as Zoomlion (000157, Buy) and others that are not rated [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the industry, driven by the deployment of AI capabilities and the continuous high growth of cloud services. The release of new models with enhanced multi-modal understanding capabilities is expected to further stimulate demand [8] - The report emphasizes the significant increase in token usage, indicating deepening downstream applications. As of December, the daily token usage of the Doubao large model has surpassed 50 trillion, a 67% increase from September, positioning it as the leader in China and third globally [8] - The report notes the continuous upgrade of model capabilities, including improved multi-modal understanding, enhanced agent capabilities for complex task execution, and flexible context management, which are crucial for driving demand expansion in the AI industry [8] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends investing in technology giants with a full-stack AI approach, including Alibaba (09988, Buy) and Google (ALPHABET-A, GOOGL.O, Not Rated) [3] - It suggests focusing on multi-modal products that cater to both B2B and B2C users, with clear commercialization scenarios and high growth certainty, recommending Kuaishou (01024, Buy) and Meitu (01357, Buy) [3] - The report also highlights the importance of other companies with model capabilities and related industry chains, recommending Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy), Tongdao Liepin (06100, Not Rated), and Beisen Holdings (09669, Not Rated) [3]

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 金银新高背后，投资节奏或随隐波而分化 ——黄金行业动态跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫权益端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业 (601899，买入)，矿产金产量持续改善， 业绩或加速上行的赤峰黄金(600988，买 入)。其他标的：中金黄金(600489，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级) 。 风险提示 国内外宏观经济变化；关税影响预期与产业链稳定性；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 021-63326320 | | 金铜铝铁权益滞后商品的现象或将改变： | 2025-12-22 | ...

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Recent bond market fluctuations have increased due to intense fluctuations in monetary policy expectations, leading to frequent band - trading by trading funds and amplifying market volatility. The market's view is that funds are difficult to tighten, and the bond market is difficult to rise significantly. Trading funds can conduct band operations based on changes in monetary policy expectations, but the bond market has limited space until the factors restricting the entry of allocation funds subside [6][9]. - The main reason for the cautious attitude of long - term bond - allocating funds such as banks and insurance companies towards the 2026 bond market includes expectations of a "good start" in financial, inflation, and economic data at the beginning of the year, government bond issuance front - loading, insurance "good start" product structure, weakening bond profit - making effects, and the spread of credit risks in some industries [6][12]. - After entering 2026, attention can be paid to whether there are changes in bank behavior. On one hand, banks' indicator pressure eases, which may enhance their bond - allocating motivation; on the other hand, strong credit reserve at the beginning of the year may put pressure on the capital side and restrict their bond - allocating demand. Near the end of the year, changes in the certificate of deposit market can be observed [6][13]. Group 2: This Week's Fixed - Income Market Concerns Overseas Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the October durable goods orders monthly rate, and Japan will release the November unemployment rate [14][15]. Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 240 billion yuan, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 188 billion yuan, local bonds with a scale of 2.04 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds with a scale of about 50 billion yuan [15]. Group 3: Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase Initiation - Near the end of the year, the central bank initiated 14 - day reverse repurchases on Thursday and Friday, with a total reverse - repurchase investment of 657.5 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. After adding the 30 - billion - yuan maturity of central bank bills, the open - market operations had a net investment of 19 billion yuan. The money market showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price [17][18]. Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Last week, the bond market's optimistic sentiment increased, and with the central bank's support for the year - end, most bond market interest rates were repaired. The extremely long - term bonds fluctuated greatly, rising significantly and then falling back to the previous week's level. The yields of most periodic interest - rate bonds were repaired, with the 3 - year China Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds having the largest decline of about 5.5bp [32]. Group 4: High - Frequency Data Production End - Most of the operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 78.6% to 78.5%, the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased from 71.6% to 71.4%, the PTA operating rate remained flat at 73.8%, and the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased from 27.8% to 27.6%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early December narrowed, with a reading of - 11.3% [36]. Demand End - The year - on - year decline in the wholesale and retail sales of passenger car manufacturers both improved compared to last week. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area remained large. The land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction area increased. The export indices SCFI and CCFI increased by 3.1% and 0.6% respectively [36]. Price End - Crude oil prices declined, while copper and aluminum prices increased. Coal prices were divided, with the thermal coal futures settlement price remaining flat and the coking coal futures settlement price increasing by 7.9%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index, cement index, and glass index changed by 0.7%, 0.4%, and - 1.1% respectively. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased rapidly to 3.13 million tons, with the futures price increasing by 1.4%. In the downstream consumer end, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.2% respectively [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a relative strength of over 5% compared to the market benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The domestic sales performance aligns with expectations, with a gradual transition into a post-subsidy era in 2026. In November 2025, home appliance sales reached 10.49 million units, down 31.8%, with domestic sales at 4.05 million units, down 39.8%, and exports at 6.44 million units, down 25.6% [7]. - The new national standard for electric two-wheelers is being implemented, with a significant inventory replenishment expected in the first half of 2026. The new models are being introduced, and a concentrated restocking period is anticipated [7]. - Key players in the cleaning appliance sector are undergoing ownership changes, which may impact market dynamics. iRobot is undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, while the founder of追觅科技 is acquiring a controlling stake in 嘉美包装 [7]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market is experiencing a decline, which was anticipated. The central economic work conference confirmed the continuation of national subsidy policies into 2026, with adjustments expected to enhance service consumption [3][7]. Electric Two-Wheelers - The implementation of the new national standard for electric two-wheelers began on September 1, 2025, leading to the cessation of production and sales of old standard models. A significant inventory depletion is expected by the end of December 2025, with new models set to launch soon [7]. Key Players and Market Changes - iRobot's bankruptcy restructuring is expected to maintain brand operations but may not significantly alter market dynamics. The acquisition of 嘉美包装 by 追觅科技's founder could lead to strategic shifts in the cleaning appliance sector [7].

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a focus on precise timing to capture excess returns within the established range around 3900 points [2][3] - A mid-term perspective suggests selecting mid-cap blue-chip stocks in sectors with improving marginal conditions, particularly those benefiting from global supply chain restructuring and financial attributes [2][3] Industry Strategy - In the chemical sector, oxalic acid is anticipated to experience a tightening supply-demand dynamic, leading to a potential upturn in market conditions. The primary downstream applications for oxalic acid include rare earths, pharmaceuticals, and the new energy sector [2][3] - The rapid growth in lithium iron phosphate production is expected to make the new energy sector the largest application area for oxalic acid, with projected additional demand exceeding 180,000 tons due to new production capacities coming online [2][3] - The MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor) industry is poised to benefit from strong downstream demand driven by AI applications, with the demand for MLCCs expected to surge as AI servers require significantly more components than traditional servers [3]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 风格反转，年底或有抢跑可能 研究结论 可转债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅回落，股性转债继续领涨：可转 | 2025-12-16 | | --- | --- | | 债市场周观察 | | | 低利率，破局——2026 年债市展望 | 2025-12-14 | | 估值补跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has generally increased, but the "belief" remains unshaken. Before more positive factors emerge in the bond market, it is recommended to focus on urban investment bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years to explore their value. - Towards the end of the year, the bond market has shown overall weakness and increased volatility, mainly due to the strong wait - and - see sentiment of institutions such as banks and insurance companies, while trading desks have been active. Compared with previous years, there are more negative factors this year. Looking forward, the bond market is expected to remain highly volatile, and the yield center is likely to remain flat or rise slightly. Therefore, short - and medium - term credit bonds are still the better choice. - In the past two weeks, credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years have shown a good recovery trend, and their yields have basically returned to the level of late November. Although the 5 - year bonds have stabilized, there has been no obvious downward trend. The market strictly controls the duration of credit bonds, resulting in a relatively steep yield curve for many issuers around 3 years. Since the extension of Vanke's bonds, the market's risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has generally increased, but there is no significant divergence in views. The pressure to sell is still greater for industrial bonds, such as those in the real estate and construction industries [6][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly View - The market's risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has increased, but the "belief" in urban investment bonds remains. Before more positive factors emerge in the bond market, it is advisable to focus on urban investment bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years. - The bond market is weak and volatile at the end of the year. Institutions have a strong wait - and - see attitude, and trading desks are active. There are more negative factors this year compared to previous years. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the yield center may rise slightly. Short - and medium - term credit bonds are a better choice. - In the past two weeks, 3 - year - and - below credit bonds have recovered well, while 5 - year bonds have stabilized but not declined significantly. The market strictly controls the duration of credit bonds, and the yield curve around 3 years is relatively steep. After Vanke's bond extension, the risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has increased, and the pressure on industrial bonds is greater [6][9]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - **Bond Default and Overdue**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. failed to pay the interest of 108.8 million yuan and the principal of 400 million yuan for the bond "H20 Tianying 3", with a total overdue amount of 508.8 million yuan [13]. - **Subject Rating or Outlook Downgraded**: There were no enterprises with their subject ratings or outlooks downgraded during the period [14]. - **Bond Rating Downgraded**: There were no bonds with their ratings downgraded during the period [15]. - **Overseas Rating Downgraded**: On December 17, 2025, Fitch downgraded Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd. and Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. The long - term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings of Vanke were downgraded from "CCC -" to "C", and the ratings of its related subsidiaries and bonds were also downgraded [15]. - **Major Negative Events**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, several companies had negative events, including the misuse of bond - raised funds by a subsidiary of Shangqiu Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., and some companies being included in the list of dishonest被执行人 or receiving public condemnation from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [16]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The issuance volume was flat compared to the previous period, and the maturity volume was also basically the same. The net financing amount decreased slightly. From December 15 to December 21, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 262 billion yuan, a 4% decrease compared to the previous period, and the total repayment amount was 204.6 billion yuan, remaining basically the same. The final net financing was 57.5 billion yuan [17]. - There were 10 credit bonds whose issuance was cancelled or postponed, with a total scale of 5.1 billion yuan. The number and scale of cancelled or postponed issuances both decreased. - In terms of primary issuance costs, the issuance cost of AA + - rated bonds increased significantly. Last week, the average coupon rates of AAA - and AA + - rated bonds were 2.27% and 2.96% respectively, up 1bp and 39bp compared to the previous period. The frequency of new AA/AA - rated bonds remained low [18]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds of all ratings and maturities continued to recover slightly, with an average decrease of about 1bp, while credit spreads widened passively by about 3bp. The bond market was stable last week, and the valuations of credit bonds continued to recover. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds decreased more, with an overall decrease of about 1bp and up to 2 - 3bp for medium - and long - term bonds. The risk - free interest rate also decreased but by a larger margin, resulting in a passive widening of credit spreads [21]. - The 5Y - 1Y term spreads of medium - and low - grade bonds widened significantly, by 4 - 5bp, while the 3Y - 1Y term spreads of all ratings fluctuated slightly. The AA - AAA grade spreads of medium - and long - term bonds widened, with the 5 - year spread widening by up to 3bp [23]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in all provinces widened last week, with a central range of 3 - 4bp and little differentiation among provinces. Yunnan had the largest widening of 6bp. The spreads of industrial bonds in all industries also widened slightly by 2 - 3bp [25][28]. - The weekly turnover rate was flat compared to the previous period, decreasing by 0.01 percentage points to 1.88%. The issuers of the top ten bonds in terms of turnover rate were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. The prices of Vanke's bonds still fluctuated significantly last week, and all credit bonds with a discount of more than 10% in trading were Vanke's bonds [29]. - From the perspective of individual issuer valuation changes, the distribution of urban investment bonds with the largest narrowing or widening of spreads was scattered. In the industrial sector, the top five issuers with the largest widening of spreads were mostly real - estate companies, whose short - term valuations fluctuated greatly due to factors such as option exercises. The real - estate companies with the largest spread widening were Times Holdings, Country Garden, Rongqiao, and Greenland [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the forklift industry, indicating a strong investment opportunity with expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% [3][15]. Core Insights - Forklift sales are experiencing structural improvements, with increased working hours and utilization rates, suggesting sustained demand from downstream sectors [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in forklift sales, with total sales reaching 119,700 units in November 2025, a 14.1% increase compared to the previous year. Domestic sales accounted for 75,200 units, up 23.9%, while exports reached 44,500 units, a 0.7% increase [8]. - The average working hours and utilization rates for forklifts have risen, with November 2025 figures showing 108 hours and 66.3% respectively, compared to 106 hours and 58.5% in October 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency [8][11]. - Policy support is expected to enhance growth certainty in the forklift sector, with government initiatives aimed at boosting domestic demand and infrastructure development in logistics [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Forklift sales in November 2025 reached 119,700 units, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase. Domestic sales were 75,200 units, up 23.9%, while exports were 44,500 units, a 0.7% increase [8]. Operational Metrics - The average working hours for forklifts increased to 108 hours in November 2025, with a utilization rate of 66.3%, both showing improvements from the previous month and year [8][11]. Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies on the forklift industry, particularly the focus on domestic demand and the development of smart logistics infrastructure [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the basic chemical industry, particularly focusing on oxalic acid [5]. Core Insights - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise due to the growth in high-density lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) in the downstream market, presenting an upward opportunity for the industry [3][26]. - Key players in the oxalic acid market include Hualu Chemical (600426, Buy) and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy), with other notable mentions being Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Fengyuan Co., Ltd. (002805, Not Rated), and Jinmei Technology (600844, Not Rated) [3][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Battery Leaders Increasing Investment in Oxalic Acid-Based High-Density LiFePO4 - The report highlights the strategic moves by leading battery manufacturers, such as CATL, to enhance their supply chain security for high-density LiFePO4, indicating a structural opportunity in the industry despite the overall market moving towards commoditization [12][8]. 2. Advantages of Oxalic Acid-Based LiFePO4 in High-Density Applications - Oxalic acid-based LiFePO4 demonstrates superior performance and process advantages, particularly in high-density applications, which are driven by the increasing demand for fast-charging and high-capacity energy storage solutions [16][22]. - The report notes that the demand growth rate for oxalic acid-based LiFePO4 is expected to surpass that of traditional LiFePO4, indicating a gradual increase in market penetration [16]. 3. Oxalic Acid Expected to Experience Upward Market Trends - The report anticipates a tightening supply-demand dynamic for oxalic acid, driven by its primary applications in rare earth, pharmaceuticals, and the rapidly growing renewable energy sector [26][27]. - The projected increase in production capacity for oxalic acid is limited in the near term, which is expected to contribute to a favorable market environment [39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading oxalic acid producers such as Hualu Chemical and Wankai New Materials, while also considering other related companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Jinmei Technology for their potential growth [3][48].