Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting EPS of 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 35,501 million yuan, 40,269 million yuan, and 42,569 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 26.4%, 13.4%, and 5.7% respectively [2] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 6,096 million yuan in 2025 to 8,250 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 16.8%, 17.6%, and 15.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,426 million yuan in 2025 to 7,343 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 21.8%, 17.6%, and 15.1% [2] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 21.5% in 2025, increasing to 23.6% by 2027 [2] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 15.3% to 17.2% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 18.6% in 2025 to 19.0% in 2027 [2] Market Performance - As of June 9, 2025, the stock price was 8.06 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.64 yuan and a low of 5.8 yuan [3] - The company has shown a relative performance of 3.37% over the past week and 10.47% over the past month [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the government's pilot policy for elderly care robots, reflecting a clear understanding of the demand for robotic applications and data. The trend towards humanoid robots is expected to lead to continued policy implementation in the future [4][9] - The report emphasizes that the pilot program will accelerate the deployment of elderly care robots, addressing urgent needs due to the aging population in China. By the end of 2024, the elderly population aged 60 and above is projected to reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population [9] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the robotic industry, including: 1. Complete machine manufacturers: Recommended companies include UBTECH (未评级), Zhongjian Technology (未评级), Yijiahe (未评级), Ousheng Electric (Buy), and Haoneng Co. (未评级) [4] 2. Dexterous hands and sensors: Recommended companies include Jiechang Drive (未评级), Zhaowei Electromechanical (未评级), Top Group (Buy), Yongchuang Intelligent (Buy), and others [4] 3. Exoskeletons: Recommended companies include Meihu Co. (未评级), Seiko Technology (未评级), and Xinhua Jin (未评级) [4] Industry Trends - The report notes that the pilot program will focus on three types of elderly care services: home, community, and institutional care, targeting specific needs such as care for the disabled and elderly, emotional companionship, health promotion, and daily living assistance [9] - The report indicates that the lack of application scenarios for humanoid robots has hindered their development, but with government support and the urgent demand from an aging population, the commercialization process is expected to accelerate [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of the implementation of elderly care robots due to national pilot policies, reflecting a clear understanding of the demand for robotic applications and data [4][9] - The aging population in China is a pressing issue, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, the elderly population (aged 60 and above) will reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population [9] - The report emphasizes that the lack of application scenarios for humanoid robots has hindered their development, but with national support, there is potential for rapid commercialization in specific scenarios [9] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on the following segments: 1. Complete machine manufacturers: Companies such as UBTECH (09880, not rated), Zhongjian Technology (002779, not rated), Yijiahe (603666, not rated), Ousheng Electric (301187, Buy), and Haoneng Co. (603809, not rated) [4] 2. Dexterous hands & sensors: Companies like Jiechang Drive (603583, not rated), Zhaowei Electromechanical (003021, not rated), Top Group (601689, Buy), Yongchuang Intelligent (603901, Buy), and others [4] 3. Exoskeletons: Companies including Meihu Co. (603319, not rated), Jinggong Technology (002006, not rated), and Xinhua Jin (600735, not rated) [4] Industry Context - The report discusses the national initiative to support elderly care robots through pilot programs aimed at home, community, and institutional care, addressing specific needs such as assistance for the disabled and elderly [9] - The pilot period for these initiatives is set from 2025 to 2027, with specific deployment targets for testing the robots in real-life scenarios [9] - The report notes that the aging population's needs are urgent, with a significant majority of elderly individuals preferring home care, which creates a substantial market opportunity for robotic solutions [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For credit bonds, continue to focus on coupon hunting and maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [8][9][10] - For convertible bonds, the sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit & Convertible Bond Market Observation and Thinking 3.1.1 Credit Bonds - From June 2nd to June 8th, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 273.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. The total repayment amount was 147.5 billion yuan, a reduction of about 1/3 compared to the previous period, resulting in a net inflow of 126.2 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week [8] - Short - term yields of each grade increased slightly by about 1bp, with higher - grade bonds having a larger increase. Long - term yields generally decreased by about 2bp. The risk - free yield curve shifted downward by 2 - 3bp. Short - duration spreads of each grade generally widened by about 4bp, while medium - and long - term spreads fluctuated within ±1bp. The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [9] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [9] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [9] - The bond market was stable last week, with a significant decline on Friday. The central bank has a strong willingness to support, but as spreads continue to narrow, the risk of credit bond valuation being affected by interest - rate bond fluctuations is increasing. It is not recommended to extend the duration at this stage, and it is advisable to maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [10] 3.1.2 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, the CSI 300 rose 0.88%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.10%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%, the STAR 50 rose 1.50%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.30%. The daily average trading volume increased by 114.305 billion to 1.21 trillion yuan [11] - Convertible bonds significantly followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [11] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11] 3.2 Credit Bond Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, downgrades of corporate or bond ratings, or overseas rating downgrades during the week from June 2nd to June 8th [12] - There were three major negative events: Guizhou Hongcai Investment Group Co., Ltd. was involved in two major lawsuits with a total execution amount of 604 million yuan; Huai'an Hongxin State - owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd. was sued for failing to pay project funds, with a total execution amount of 261 million yuan; and the credit enhancement measures of "H20 Shanshan 1" of Shanshan Group Co., Ltd. had significant adverse changes [13] 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds increased slightly compared to the previous period, while the maturity scale decreased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in the net inflow, exceeding 100 billion yuan. Only one credit bond was cancelled or postponed for issuance [13][14] - The primary issuance cost of medium - and low - grade bonds decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while that of high - grade bonds remained flat. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week. The frequency of newly issued AA/AA - grade bonds remained at a low level [14] 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations increased at the short - end and decreased at the long - end. The risk - free interest rate curve shifted downward. Short - end spreads of each grade widened significantly, while medium - and long - term spreads remained basically unchanged [16] - The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [18] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [21][23] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [24] 3.3 Convertible Bond Review 3.3.1 Market Overall Performance - From June 3rd to June 6th, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the losses [28] - Seven convertible bonds with the highest gains outperformed their underlying stocks. Jinling, Yitian, and Jingyuan Convertible Bonds led the gains, rising 24.42%, 14.89%, and 14.85% respectively. Tianyang, Jinling, and Limin Convertible Bonds were relatively active in trading [28] 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds Followed the Upward Trend, and the Wait - and - See Sentiment Remained - Convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [32] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 74.58 HKD per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant progress in its commercial operations, particularly with its Kuaishou Keling product, which achieved monthly revenues exceeding 1 billion CNY in April and May [3][8]. - The Keling 2.1 version was launched at the end of May, offering a higher cost-performance ratio, which is expected to drive user growth and increase paid subscriptions [8]. - The company is experiencing a positive cycle of technology iteration, product refinement, user payment, and revenue growth, similar to the trajectory of overseas competitors [8]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for the company is projected to be 195 billion CNY in 2025, with expected growth to 246 billion CNY by 2027 [4][9]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 113.47 billion CNY in 2023 to 164.14 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [9][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9][11]. Performance Metrics - The company's stock price performance has shown a 20% increase over the past month and an 18.97% increase over the past week [6]. - The company has repurchased shares worth 19 billion HKD since the beginning of 2025, providing a safety net for shareholder returns [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate market showed resilience in May, with new home sales improving month-on-month, while year-on-year declines narrowed [6][29] - The report anticipates a continued downward pressure on sales in the second half of the year due to potential uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations [6][29] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality land reserves and product strength for real estate companies to achieve alpha attributes [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -0.1%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3874.0, with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while the real estate index closed at 2174.1, with a weekly increase of 0.8% [6][10][11] Policy Developments - Nationally, the central government supports urban renewal actions, with 20 cities including Beijing and Guangzhou selected. Locally, Jiangsu has announced measures to boost consumption, while Hunan and Zhejiang have introduced policies to support housing and property acquisition [6][13][21] Sales Data - In the 23rd week, new home sales in 44 major cities decreased to 14,000 units, down 33.1% from the previous week. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also fell to 15,000 units, down 23.0% [6][16] - Inventory levels decreased, with 18 major cities holding 825,000 units, down 21,000 units from the previous week, and a sales-to-inventory ratio of 16.8 months, down 4.5 months [6][23] Company Announcements - Key companies have made significant announcements, including major asset restructuring and share repurchase plans. Notable mentions include Chengjian Development and Haitai Development [6][28][29] Future Outlook - The report expects a year-on-year increase in second-hand home transaction volumes, while new home sales are projected to continue declining but at a reduced rate. The core areas with high efficiency and premium properties are expected to drive this trend [6][29]

Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate market showed resilience in May, with new home sales improving month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year decline [6][29] - The report anticipates a continued downward pressure on sales in the second half of the year due to potential uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations [6][29] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality land reserves and product strength for real estate companies to achieve alpha attributes [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -0.1% [6][9] - The CSI 300 index closed at 3874.0 with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2174.1 with a weekly increase of 0.8% [10][11] Policy Developments - National policies include central government support for urban renewal actions, with 20 cities including Beijing and Guangzhou selected [13][15] - Local policies from Jiangsu and Hunan aim to boost consumption and support the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [13][21] Sales Data - In the 23rd week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 33.1% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities were 15,000 units, down 23.0% [6][16] - Inventory levels decreased, with 18 major cities holding 825,000 units, down by 21,000 units from the previous week [6][23] Company Announcements - Key companies such as Chengjian Development and Haitai Development announced significant asset restructuring and share transfer plans [28][29] - The report notes that several companies are engaging in share buybacks and dividend distributions [28][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to companies like China Resources Land (01109) and Yuexiu Property (00123) [6][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the Chinese defense and military industry [5] Core Insights - The military trade is expected to become a second growth curve for the industry, with Indonesia considering the procurement of Chinese J-10 fighter jets due to their high performance and cost-effectiveness [27] - The report highlights that the recent geopolitical tensions have increased military spending globally, creating new opportunities for China's military exports [6][27] - The domestic aviation industry is expected to accelerate the localization of aircraft engines due to U.S. export restrictions on key technologies [6] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The defense and military industry index rose by 0.41% during the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.13% [10][11] - The defense and military industry ranked 24th out of 31 sectors in terms of weekly performance [13] News and Announcements - Indonesia is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese J-10 fighter jets to modernize its air force while considering budget constraints [27] - The U.S. has restricted the export of commercial engines, which is expected to accelerate the domestic development of aviation engines in China [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream components and key materials as they are crucial for weapon development and production, with potential for significant performance improvements [6] - Specific stocks recommended include Zhihua Technology, Aerospace Electric, and others in the upstream components and key materials sectors [6]

固生堂 02273.HK 公司研究 | 首次报告 | | | ——固生堂首次覆盖报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.53、1.81 和 2.24 元。公司是国内领先中医 连锁服务龙头，AI 布局靠前，据可比公司 25 年平均估值，给予公司当年 26 倍市盈 率，对应目标价 43.37 港元（按 1：0.91517 汇率测算），首次给予"买入"评级。 风险提示 中药集采与供应链、合规经营、优质中医师资源不足、行业竞争加剧风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2323.35 | 3022.38 | 3777.96 | 4574.38 | 5717.88 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.01% | 30.09% | 25.00% | 21.08% | 25.00% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 229.36 | 319.07 | 387.06 | 468.15 | 590.16 ...