Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The U.S. is advancing its lunar return plan, which may lead to increased international competition in space strategy, benefiting China's rocket technology and space operations [8][11] - The proximity of low Earth orbit satellites between China and the U.S. highlights the need for enhanced space traffic management and situational awareness [12][16] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to clarify new equipment construction plans, emphasizing the importance of unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and operational informatization [17] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on commercial aerospace, military trade, and new quality combat capabilities as key investment areas [9][17] - Specific recommended stocks include: - Commercial Aerospace: Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Haige Communication (002465, Buy), and others [17] - Engine & Fuel Chain: West Superconductor (688122, Buy) and others [17] - New Quality Domains: New Light Optoelectronics (688011, Increase) and others [17] - Military Electronics: Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy) and others [17] - Military Trade/Main Equipment: Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) and others [17] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) rose by 1.53%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [19][21] - The report notes that the defense and military sector ranked 11th out of 31 in terms of weekly performance [22] Key News and Developments - The report highlights significant developments such as the successful first flight of the Rainbow-7 high-altitude stealth drone and the establishment of a permanent lunar outpost by 2030 as part of the U.S. space strategy [26][27] - It also mentions the ongoing military trade dynamics and the implications of recent geopolitical events on the defense sector [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

美国通胀风险预计将继续弱化 ——2025 年 11 月美国 CPI 数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 美国经济硬着陆的风险。美国通胀大幅反弹的风险。 美联储降息节奏不及预期的风险。假设条件变化影响测算结果的风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 鹰派降息变鸽派， ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to restart a volatile upward trend, with a favorable layout for mid-cap blue chips and strong thematic directions [9][13][14]. Market Analysis - The market is likely to experience a rebound after a period of hesitation, with the recent interest rate hike in Japan further reducing uncertainty. This sets the stage for a potential upward movement in the market [3][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of risk styles is nearing its end, with investment opportunities shifting towards mid-cap blue chips, which are expected to rise again after four years of dormancy [4][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in medium-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines to capitalize on mid-cap blue chips: 1. **Cyclical Sector**: Technology empowerment combined with supply constraints is leading to a re-evaluation of pricing. Attention is drawn to new materials, chemicals, and metals with improved supply-demand dynamics, as well as agricultural products [4][16]. 2. **Consumer Sector**: After years of stagnation, the consumer sector is at a turning point, with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction suggesting potential price increases. Focus areas include technology-related consumption, new consumption trends, and traditional pharmaceutical consumption [4][16]. 3. **Manufacturing Sector**: The focus is shifting from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues." Key areas of interest include telecommunications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery with expected performance validation [4][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas to watch: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is expected to maintain strength, with potential catalysts from reusable rockets and accelerated IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [4][17]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: The AI theme is currently influenced by U.S. market narratives and may see short-term performance improvements following recent developments [5][17]. - **Service Consumption**: With significant recent gains, policies aimed at improving demand are expected to become a main theme by 2026, making service consumption a key area of focus [5][17]. - **Autonomous Driving**: Developments in domestic L3 licensing and profitability milestones for companies like Pony.ai, along with international validation phases for robotaxis, suggest a renewed focus on this sector [5][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: The nuclear fusion sector is anticipated to experience a series of industrial catalysts, transitioning from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand [5][18]. - **Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution**: Expectations for domestic wafer fabs to expand production next year, along with the capitalization of major domestic memory chip manufacturers, highlight opportunities in domestic chip manufacturing and related materials [5][19]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, driven by supply constraints and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and the new energy sector [6][19].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound with three consecutive days of gains, but overall trading volume remained low, indicating a continued state of market fluctuation [9] - Market sentiment is cautious as participants are less willing to trade, especially as the year-end approaches, leading to a faster rotation of sectors and diminished profit-making opportunities [9] Industry Strategy: Food and Beverage - Despite recent adjustments in the food and beverage sector, there is still fundamental support for new consumption in the short term, with stock prices having absolute return potential [9] - The sector is characterized by low positions and low performance expectations, making valuations attractive; traditional food and beverage stocks are expected to see valuation-driven increases due to domestic demand policy catalysts [9] - The liquor segment is anticipated to reach a performance bottom in Q1 2026, with the sector's performance risks expected to clear by 2026, transitioning from valuation-driven to performance-driven growth [9] - Recommended stocks include Miaokelando (600882, Buy), Anjifood (603345, Not Rated), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568, Buy) [9] Industry Strategy: Humanoid Robots - Significant advancements in motion control technology for humanoid robots are expected in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [9] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot highlight rapid progress in motion control capabilities, with Yush G1 participating in a concert and performing complex movements [9] - The main challenge for mass production is the development of brain models, with expectations for faster mass production by H1 2026 [9] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in components are likely to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689, Buy) being a recommended stock [9]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Coking coal prices are rebounding due to seasonal restocking in downstream sectors, indicating a strong short-term outlook for coking coal prices [3][7] - Attention is required on the turning point of thermal coal port inventories, as prices are expected to stabilize after this point [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Current coking coal prices are supported by seasonal restocking, suggesting investment opportunities in the coking coal sector [3][60] - Thermal coal requires close monitoring of port inventory turning points, with potential price stabilization expected post-turning point. Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088, Buy), China Coal Energy (601898, Buy), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225, Buy), and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001, Buy) [3][60] Industry Fundamentals - Coking coal inventory trends show a shift from midstream to downstream, with sample steel mills' coking coal inventory at 8.05 million tons (up 1.30% MoM) and independent coking plants at 8.81 million tons (down 0.22% MoM) [7] - As of December 19, coking coal futures closed at 1,108 RMB/ton (up 9.00% MoM) [7] - Thermal coal demand remains weak, with port inventories at seasonal highs affecting railway shipment volumes [7] - The supply side shows coal mine operating rates at low levels, with 462 thermal coal mines operating at 90.4% capacity (down 2.1 percentage points MoM) [7][27] Price Trends and Valuation - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal has significantly rebounded, with the ratio at 1.40 as of December 19, compared to 1.20 the previous week [7] - The coal industry index PB is at 1.44 times, indicating a historical median valuation level [7][56]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound with three consecutive days of gains, but overall trading volume remained low, indicating a continued state of market fluctuation [9] - Market participants are adopting a conservative mindset as the year-end approaches, leading to reduced trading willingness and a faster rotation of sectors [9] Industry Strategy: Food and Beverage - Despite recent adjustments in the food and beverage sector, there is still fundamental support for new consumption in the short term, with stock prices showing absolute return potential [9] - The market's expectations for consumption remain relatively low, with the food and beverage sector characterized by low positions and low performance expectations, making valuations attractive [9] - It is anticipated that the food and beverage sector will transition from valuation-driven growth to performance-driven growth in 2026, with risks expected to clear by then [9] - Recommended stocks include Miaokelan Duo (600882, Buy), Anjixin Food (603345, Not Rated), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568, Buy) [9] Industry Strategy: Humanoid Robots - Significant advancements in motion control technology for humanoid robots are expected in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [9] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot highlight rapid progress in motion control capabilities [9] - The most significant challenge for mass production is the development of brain models, with expectations for faster production rates in the first half of 2026 [9] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in component production are likely to benefit from this trend [9] - Recommended stock includes Top Group (601689, Buy) [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The demand for Google's TPU is surging, which is expected to provide incremental opportunities for domestic liquid cooling industry companies. The next-generation TPU v7e chip orders have reportedly doubled compared to initial plans, indicating strong market recognition and potential for reshaping the AI chip competitive landscape [8][12] - Tesla's launch of the fully autonomous Robotaxi testing and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's approval of the first batch of L3 autonomous driving models are expected to enhance the hardware and software supply for intelligent driving [13][52] - The recent financing round of over $300 million for Galaxy General reflects market confidence in the commercialization prospects of domestic humanoid robots, with significant orders from major clients [14] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies within the humanoid robot chain, liquid cooling industry, T chain, Huawei industry chain, and intelligent driving industry. Key liquid cooling stocks include Invec (未评级), Yinlun (买入), Top Group (买入), Sanhua Intelligent Control (买入), and Feilong (未评级) [3][15] - Other relevant stocks include SAIC Motor (买入), JAC Motors (未评级), BYD (未评级), and several others across various segments of the automotive industry [15][16] Sales Tracking - From December 1-14, 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in China were 734,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. Cumulatively, wholesale sales for the year reached 27.499 million units, a 9% increase [17] - Retail sales during the same period were 764,000 units, down 24% year-on-year, with cumulative retail sales of 22.247 million units, up 5% [17] Market Trends and Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector showed stability, with the automotive index slightly outperforming the broader market. The automotive sales and service sector performed particularly well, with a 4.29% increase [30][31] - The report highlights the growth in the automotive manufacturing sector, with an 11.8% increase in value added from January to November 2025, indicating a robust recovery in the industry [51]

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 不考虑本次资产重组，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 2.66、2.83、 2.92 元，根据 DDM 估值模型，给予公司目标价 47.58 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；政府进一步调控大宗商品价格；公司产能利用率不及预期；海外煤价大 幅下跌导致公司煤炭售价下降。 公司主要财务信息 中国神华 601088.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 中国神华（601088.SH）事件点评 核心观点 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 343,074 | 338,375 | 310,083 | 332,096 | 343,629 | | 同比增长 (%) | -0.4% | -1.4% | -8.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 91,367 | 88,362 | 78,212 | 83,368 | 86,030 | | 同比增长 (%) | -6.9% | -3.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 152.49 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 69 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its automotive electronics business and accelerating its layout in smart ports and intelligent public transport [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.30 CNY, 2.21 CNY, and 3.50 CNY respectively, reflecting slight adjustments in revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios [3]. - The company has reported a significant reduction in losses, with a net profit forecast of 36 million CNY in 2025, transitioning from losses of 217 million CNY in 2023 and 550 million CNY in 2024 [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 4,678 million CNY in 2023 to 10,115 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, 18.5%, 24.4%, 22.8%, and 19.5% respectively [5][10]. - The company expects to achieve a gross margin of approximately 24.2% to 24.4% from 2025 to 2027, with a net profit margin improving from -4.6% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2027 [5][10]. - The net asset return (ROE) is anticipated to rise from -4.2% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][10]. Business Development and Strategy - The company is actively developing its smart driving business, with plans to mass-produce new products based on advanced chip technologies by the end of the year [9]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed to enhance domestic chip development, which is crucial for the company's platform development strategy [9]. - The company is also focusing on L4 autonomous driving technology, with products aimed at various sectors including logistics and public transport, indicating a broad market potential [9].