Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig industry, with pessimistic expectations likely to be corrected [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, suggesting that recent policies and market dynamics will drive capacity reduction, benefiting long-term performance. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the report notes a continuing structural growth trend, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain if the current capacity reduction in pig farming proceeds smoothly. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities. Related stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Not Rated), and Longping High-Tech (000998, Not Rated) [3] - The pet sector is noted for being in a phase of growth and price increases, with continuous expansion in overseas markets and rising domestic brand recognition. Key stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig industry, with the average price of live pigs as of December 26 at 11.63 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [13] - The report notes that the supply side is experiencing structural shortages, leading to price increases for medium and large pigs, with expectations of increased sales activity from smallholders as the New Year approaches [13] - The report also covers the white feather broiler chicken market, indicating a return to low volatility with prices rising to 7.82 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [19] - The report highlights the feed sector, noting that raw material prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices at 2338.63 CNY/ton, down 0.43% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3174.86 CNY/ton, up 1.20% [29]

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The long-term processing fee for copper concentrate for 2026 has been set to zero, highlighting a significant downward adjustment from 2025's benchmark of $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound, indicating a structural contradiction between copper supply and smelting demand [7] - Traditional copper demand is stabilizing while emerging sectors are showing significant growth, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting a 28.9% increase in copper demand from clean energy sources by 2024 compared to 2021, suggesting a continued upward trend in copper prices due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [7] - The pessimistic expectations regarding smelting fees have been addressed, and there is potential for marginal improvement in processing fees as major copper mines like Grasberg and Cobre Panamá are expected to resume operations, contributing to supply increases [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, particularly copper, and discusses the dynamics of supply and demand in these sectors [2][4] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its substantial resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable mentions include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [7] - For the copper smelting sector, Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) is highlighted as a major player with improved self-sufficiency expectations, alongside Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) [7]

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a seven-day consecutive rise, indicating a shift towards a market structure that favors mid-cap blue-chip stocks while maintaining a cautious approach to overall index performance [2][7] - The report suggests focusing on mid-cap blue-chip characteristics in investment strategies, particularly in sectors like advanced manufacturing, non-bank finance, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is projected to see significant advancements in motion control technology in 2025, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - The report notes that companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are likely to benefit from the rapid evolution of humanoid robots [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The export volume of excavators accelerated in November, indicating an increase in industry prosperity. The total export of crawler excavators reached 27,752 units, with a total value of 872 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.36% and 26.67% [8] - The growth in export volume is primarily structural, showcasing the enhanced competitiveness of China's construction machinery, which is expected to improve future export certainty. The significant contribution from the export of used machinery is anticipated to stabilize or increase the utilization rate of domestic equipment, supporting long-term healthy growth in the industry [3][8] - The market's expectations for industry health improvement are likely to rise, leading to a decrease in risk assessment, which is favorable for mid-cap blue-chip investment opportunities [3] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Export Performance**: In November, the export volume of excavators exceeded 50% growth, surpassing the cumulative growth rate of 35% from January to November. The demand from export countries showed volatility, but the overall growth rate remained resilient, indicating a strengthening of China's engineering machinery competitiveness [8] - **Used Machinery Export Impact**: The customs statistics indicate that the export of excavators is higher than the industry association's statistics, with significant contributions from used machinery exports. This trend is expected to lead to a decrease in domestic excavator ownership, which will stabilize or increase utilization rates, benefiting long-term industry growth [8] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies several investment opportunities in the sector, including companies such as Zoomlion (000157, Buy) and others that are not rated [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the industry, driven by the deployment of AI capabilities and the continuous high growth of cloud services. The release of new models with enhanced multi-modal understanding capabilities is expected to further stimulate demand [8] - The report emphasizes the significant increase in token usage, indicating deepening downstream applications. As of December, the daily token usage of the Doubao large model has surpassed 50 trillion, a 67% increase from September, positioning it as the leader in China and third globally [8] - The report notes the continuous upgrade of model capabilities, including improved multi-modal understanding, enhanced agent capabilities for complex task execution, and flexible context management, which are crucial for driving demand expansion in the AI industry [8] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends investing in technology giants with a full-stack AI approach, including Alibaba (09988, Buy) and Google (ALPHABET-A, GOOGL.O, Not Rated) [3] - It suggests focusing on multi-modal products that cater to both B2B and B2C users, with clear commercialization scenarios and high growth certainty, recommending Kuaishou (01024, Buy) and Meitu (01357, Buy) [3] - The report also highlights the importance of other companies with model capabilities and related industry chains, recommending Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy), Tongdao Liepin (06100, Not Rated), and Beisen Holdings (09669, Not Rated) [3]

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 金银新高背后，投资节奏或随隐波而分化 ——黄金行业动态跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫权益端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业 (601899，买入)，矿产金产量持续改善， 业绩或加速上行的赤峰黄金(600988，买 入)。其他标的：中金黄金(600489，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级) 。 风险提示 国内外宏观经济变化；关税影响预期与产业链稳定性；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 021-63326320 | | 金铜铝铁权益滞后商品的现象或将改变： | 2025-12-22 | ...

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Recent bond market fluctuations have increased due to intense fluctuations in monetary policy expectations, leading to frequent band - trading by trading funds and amplifying market volatility. The market's view is that funds are difficult to tighten, and the bond market is difficult to rise significantly. Trading funds can conduct band operations based on changes in monetary policy expectations, but the bond market has limited space until the factors restricting the entry of allocation funds subside [6][9]. - The main reason for the cautious attitude of long - term bond - allocating funds such as banks and insurance companies towards the 2026 bond market includes expectations of a "good start" in financial, inflation, and economic data at the beginning of the year, government bond issuance front - loading, insurance "good start" product structure, weakening bond profit - making effects, and the spread of credit risks in some industries [6][12]. - After entering 2026, attention can be paid to whether there are changes in bank behavior. On one hand, banks' indicator pressure eases, which may enhance their bond - allocating motivation; on the other hand, strong credit reserve at the beginning of the year may put pressure on the capital side and restrict their bond - allocating demand. Near the end of the year, changes in the certificate of deposit market can be observed [6][13]. Group 2: This Week's Fixed - Income Market Concerns Overseas Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the October durable goods orders monthly rate, and Japan will release the November unemployment rate [14][15]. Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 240 billion yuan, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 188 billion yuan, local bonds with a scale of 2.04 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds with a scale of about 50 billion yuan [15]. Group 3: Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase Initiation - Near the end of the year, the central bank initiated 14 - day reverse repurchases on Thursday and Friday, with a total reverse - repurchase investment of 657.5 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. After adding the 30 - billion - yuan maturity of central bank bills, the open - market operations had a net investment of 19 billion yuan. The money market showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price [17][18]. Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Last week, the bond market's optimistic sentiment increased, and with the central bank's support for the year - end, most bond market interest rates were repaired. The extremely long - term bonds fluctuated greatly, rising significantly and then falling back to the previous week's level. The yields of most periodic interest - rate bonds were repaired, with the 3 - year China Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds having the largest decline of about 5.5bp [32]. Group 4: High - Frequency Data Production End - Most of the operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 78.6% to 78.5%, the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased from 71.6% to 71.4%, the PTA operating rate remained flat at 73.8%, and the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased from 27.8% to 27.6%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early December narrowed, with a reading of - 11.3% [36]. Demand End - The year - on - year decline in the wholesale and retail sales of passenger car manufacturers both improved compared to last week. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area remained large. The land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction area increased. The export indices SCFI and CCFI increased by 3.1% and 0.6% respectively [36]. Price End - Crude oil prices declined, while copper and aluminum prices increased. Coal prices were divided, with the thermal coal futures settlement price remaining flat and the coking coal futures settlement price increasing by 7.9%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index, cement index, and glass index changed by 0.7%, 0.4%, and - 1.1% respectively. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased rapidly to 3.13 million tons, with the futures price increasing by 1.4%. In the downstream consumer end, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.2% respectively [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a relative strength of over 5% compared to the market benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The domestic sales performance aligns with expectations, with a gradual transition into a post-subsidy era in 2026. In November 2025, home appliance sales reached 10.49 million units, down 31.8%, with domestic sales at 4.05 million units, down 39.8%, and exports at 6.44 million units, down 25.6% [7]. - The new national standard for electric two-wheelers is being implemented, with a significant inventory replenishment expected in the first half of 2026. The new models are being introduced, and a concentrated restocking period is anticipated [7]. - Key players in the cleaning appliance sector are undergoing ownership changes, which may impact market dynamics. iRobot is undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, while the founder of追觅科技 is acquiring a controlling stake in 嘉美包装 [7]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market is experiencing a decline, which was anticipated. The central economic work conference confirmed the continuation of national subsidy policies into 2026, with adjustments expected to enhance service consumption [3][7]. Electric Two-Wheelers - The implementation of the new national standard for electric two-wheelers began on September 1, 2025, leading to the cessation of production and sales of old standard models. A significant inventory depletion is expected by the end of December 2025, with new models set to launch soon [7]. Key Players and Market Changes - iRobot's bankruptcy restructuring is expected to maintain brand operations but may not significantly alter market dynamics. The acquisition of 嘉美包装 by 追觅科技's founder could lead to strategic shifts in the cleaning appliance sector [7].

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a focus on precise timing to capture excess returns within the established range around 3900 points [2][3] - A mid-term perspective suggests selecting mid-cap blue-chip stocks in sectors with improving marginal conditions, particularly those benefiting from global supply chain restructuring and financial attributes [2][3] Industry Strategy - In the chemical sector, oxalic acid is anticipated to experience a tightening supply-demand dynamic, leading to a potential upturn in market conditions. The primary downstream applications for oxalic acid include rare earths, pharmaceuticals, and the new energy sector [2][3] - The rapid growth in lithium iron phosphate production is expected to make the new energy sector the largest application area for oxalic acid, with projected additional demand exceeding 180,000 tons due to new production capacities coming online [2][3] - The MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor) industry is poised to benefit from strong downstream demand driven by AI applications, with the demand for MLCCs expected to surge as AI servers require significantly more components than traditional servers [3]