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“关键软件”成为中美博弈新热点,工业与基础软件国产化加速可期
Orient Securities· 2025-10-12 14:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry in China, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. plans to impose export controls on "critical software," which includes both foundational and industrial software, highlighting its strategic importance in the ongoing U.S.-China technological competition [9]. - The domestic market for industrial design software is expected to accelerate its localization process due to potential U.S. export restrictions, with significant growth opportunities identified in this area [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that while industrial design software has a low localization rate, the industrial control systems have a relatively higher domestic market share, particularly in DCS systems [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that if the U.S. imposes export controls on foundational software, it will significantly boost the localization of industrial and foundational software. Key investment targets include: - Industrial Software: Zhongwang Software (688083, Buy), Huada Jiutian (301269, Buy), and others [3]. - Foundational Software: Dameng Data (688692, Not Rated), Dongtu Technology (300353, Not Rated), and others [3]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic significance of critical software, which includes operating systems and databases, and notes that the domestic market share for PC operating systems has reached 20-25%, while server operating systems are at 40-50% [9]. - The report highlights that the localization rate for industrial operating systems is still low, at around 10-15%, but is expected to improve as domestic products gain traction [9].
东方证券农林牧渔行业周报:生猪行业深亏,提速去产能-20251012
Orient Securities· 2025-10-12 11:44
农业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 生猪行业深亏,提速去产能 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报(20251006-20251012) 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议:(1)看好生猪养殖板块,优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长 期业绩和估值提升的核心驱动;近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化,助力 未来板块业绩长期提升,相关标的:牧原股份(002714,买入)、温氏股份(300498,买 入)、神农集团(605296,未评级)、巨星农牧(603477,未评级)等。(2)后周期板块,生 猪存栏量回升提振饲料、动保需求,若本轮生猪去产能顺畅,产业链利润有望逐步向下 游传导,驱动动保板块上行,相关标的:海大集团(002311,未评级)、瑞普生物 (300119,未评级)等。(3)种植链,当前粮价上行趋势已确立,种植&种业基本面向好, 大种植投资机会凸显,相关标的:苏垦农发(601952,未评级)、北大荒(600598,未评 级)、海南橡胶(601118,未评级)、隆平高科(000998,未评级)等。(4)宠物板块,宠食 行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段,海外市场增量不断,国产品牌认可度持续 提 ...
有色钢铁行业周观点(2025年第41周):黄金稀土或再迎高光时刻-20251012
Orient Securities· 2025-10-12 11:01
核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 黄金稀土或再迎高光时刻 ——有色钢铁行业周观点(2025 年第 41 周) 宏观经济增速放缓;关税影响需求与产业链稳定性;原料价格波动;中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 12 日 看好(维持) | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号:S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照:BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号:S0860124120001 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号:S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | AI 发展为何离不开金属软磁粉芯:——AI | 2025-10-09 | | --- | ...
中美贸易争端再起,行业基本面迎考验
Orient Securities· 2025-10-12 10:13
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is facing short-term challenges due to renewed US-China trade disputes, which have raised concerns about demand and led to a significant drop in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 4.8% [8] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the petrochemical industry remains positive, as high tariffs from trade disputes are unlikely to have a lasting impact, and domestic companies have gained valuable experience in navigating such challenges [8] - The green low-carbon sector is expected to become a new industry trend, with significant market potential for green methanol, bio-aviation fuel, and green polyester, which are anticipated to achieve rapid growth as they align with sustainable development goals [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends buying shares of Wan Kai New Materials (301216) for its leading position in the green polyester industry. Other recommended stocks include: - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035) - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749) - Hailier (603639) - Sinopec (600028) - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) - Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Huayi Group (600623) [3]
上汽集团(600104):9月销量回到行业第一,预计多款新车上市将拉动自主销量继续向上突破
Orient Securities· 2025-10-12 05:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 26.25 CNY, based on a PE valuation of 25 times for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved the highest sales in the industry in September, with expectations for multiple new car launches to further boost sales [2][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.05, 1.17, and 1.31 CNY respectively, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 726,199 million CNY, with a slight growth of 0.7% year-on-year. However, a significant decline of 15.4% is expected in 2024 [5][12]. - Operating profit is forecasted to recover significantly from 10,376 million CNY in 2024 to 19,966 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 92.4% [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rebound from 1,666 million CNY in 2024 to 12,118 million CNY in 2025, marking a substantial increase of 627.2% [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 10.5% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 1.9% to 2.0% in the following years [5][12]. Sales and Market Position - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 439,800 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% and a month-on-month increase of 21.0%, leading the industry [11]. - The sales of the company's self-owned brands in September reached 93,700 units, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 245.3% [11]. - The MG brand achieved over 220,000 units in deliveries in Europe, maintaining double-digit growth [11].
AI新材料行业深度1:AI发展为何离不开金属软磁粉芯
Orient Securities· 2025-10-09 11:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6]. Core Insights - The demand for power-saving solutions is critical for AI end-users deploying ASIC chips, as the power consumption of AI computing continues to rise significantly [9][13]. - Metal soft magnetic powder cores are essential for ASIC power modules, providing higher current capacity and better thermal stability compared to traditional ferrite materials [9][56]. - The market for metal soft magnetic powder cores is expected to grow substantially due to the increasing deployment of ASIC chips and the upcoming DDR6 memory standards, which will further drive demand for high-performance inductors [9][26]. Summary by Sections Pain Points: Power Saving as a Core Concern for ASIC Deployment - The power consumption of NVIDIA's AI computing cards has increased dramatically, with the latest models reaching up to 2700W, highlighting the urgent need for power-efficient solutions [13][14]. - ASIC chips offer higher efficiency and lower power consumption compared to traditional GPU chips, making them a preferred choice for AI applications [19][24]. - The shift towards self-developed ASIC chips by major AI companies is driven by the need to optimize power efficiency and reduce costs [29][27]. Materials: Metal Soft Magnetic Powder Cores as Essential Components - The vertical stacking design of power modules significantly reduces PDN losses, enhancing overall power efficiency [46]. - The demand for smaller and more efficient inductors is increasing due to the compact design of vertical power modules [48]. - Metal soft magnetic powder cores can handle higher currents and provide better performance in high-power applications compared to traditional materials [56][57]. Market: Dual-Drive from GPU and ASIC - The demand for inductors is projected to exceed 400 million units as AI companies ramp up their ASIC chip production [9][11]. - The introduction of DDR6 memory is expected to further increase the usage of inductors, as it requires improved power integrity and efficiency [9][19]. Application Expansion: DDR6 Memory to Drive Growth - The transition to DDR6 memory will necessitate a higher volume of inductors, as it introduces new power management requirements [19][4]. - The integration of PMIC solutions in DDR5 has already set a precedent for increased inductor usage, which will continue with DDR6 [19][4]. Industry Comparison: Competitive Advantages of Platinum New Materials - Platinum New Materials holds a competitive edge in the production of metal soft magnetic powder due to its advanced atomization technology, which results in finer particle sizes and lower oxygen content [9][21]. - The company's production capacity is expected to ramp up significantly, reaching 300 million units by 2026, positioning it well within the growing market [9][12].
预计鸿蒙智行车型销量市场份额将有望继续提升,产业链公司将持续受益
Orient Securities· 2025-10-08 14:55
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The sales and market share of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving models are expected to continue to rise, benefiting companies in the supply chain [2][3] - The report highlights the strong performance of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving models during the National Day holiday, with a total of 41,300 units booked from October 1-7, representing a 44% year-on-year increase [8] - The report anticipates that the introduction of national standards for intelligent assisted driving will further enhance the market share of vehicles equipped with Huawei's intelligent driving systems [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on Hongmeng Intelligent Driving vehicles and related companies, with specific buy recommendations for SAIC Motor (600104), Yanchai Automobile (600418), and several component manufacturers including Yinlun Co. (002126), Xinquan Co. (603179), and others [3] - The report notes that multiple new models are set to launch, which is expected to drive sales and market share upward [3] Market Performance - The report indicates that the high-end and luxury segments of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving models are leading in market share, with significant bookings for models like the Zun Jie S800 and Wanjie M9 [8] - The report projects that by 2026, the product matrix of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving will be further enhanced, allowing for a more comprehensive market presence in the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle sector [8] Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the upcoming mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which are expected to be implemented on January 1, 2027, and how this will impact the market dynamics for L2 level assisted driving systems [8]
AI视频迎来GPT-3.5时刻,算力基建持续扩张
Orient Securities· 2025-10-08 10:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - Recent advancements in AI models, applications, and computing infrastructure are expected to boost investor confidence in the industry's future development [3]. - The report highlights significant breakthroughs in domestic AI chip technology and the expansion of computing power infrastructure [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Investors are advised to focus on AI applications represented by multimodal technologies, domestic computing power, and storage sectors. Key stocks include: - AI Applications: Keda Xunfei (002230, Buy), Tax Friend (603171, Buy), and others [3]. - AI Hardware: Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), Zhongke Shuguang (603019, Buy), and others [3]. Industry Developments - OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 video generation model marks a significant technological advancement, leading to its app topping the App Store, indicating strong user potential and market space for AI video generation [8]. - DeepSeek's V3.2 model introduces a sparse attention mechanism, enhancing efficiency in long text training and inference, while also reducing API call costs significantly [8]. - OpenAI's strategic partnerships with storage giants and AMD for computing power expansion reflect the growing demand for AI infrastructure, with projected monthly needs reaching 900,000 wafers, highlighting the industry's rapid growth [8].
量子科学研究成果获诺贝尔奖,关注量子技术产业化前景
Orient Securities· 2025-10-08 08:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [6][17]. Core Insights - The Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for quantum science research is expected to enhance the attention of governments and leading tech companies towards the industrialization of quantum technology, accelerating its commercialization process [3][10]. - The research recognized by the Nobel Prize lays a theoretical foundation for the industrialization of quantum technology, with significant contributions from the awarded scientists in developing superconducting circuits and quantum bits [9][10]. - Recent advancements in quantum technology, such as the installation of the first quantum computer in a data center in New York City, signify a shift from laboratory research to practical applications in the industry [9][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic quantum technology companies, including Guandun Quantum, Guoxin Technology, Tengjing Technology, and Huagong Technology, as potential investment targets [3][10]. Industry Overview - The report highlights the growing interest in quantum technology following the Nobel Prize announcement, with expectations for increased investment and development in quantum computing, communication, and measurement technologies [9][10].
9月PMI点评:内需与政策将重新主导PMI
Orient Securities· 2025-10-08 07:51
宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需与政策将重新主导 PMI 9 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 08 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号:S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照:BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号:S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号:S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照:BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号:S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 迈向"十五五":迎接新政策风格 | 2025-09-28 | | --- | --- | ...