谷歌液冷快速增长及供应商模式破局，国 内供应商将迎来较大机会 ——AI 液冷系列报告之三 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，随着谷歌 TPU 需求增长、TPU v7 服务器全面转向液冷，预计谷歌服务 器液冷市场将迎来快速增长。谷歌液冷供应商选择的破局，将为国内供应商提供更多配 套市场空间，液冷业务将成为国内供应商的第二增长曲线。相关标的：英维克、银轮股 份、飞龙股份、川环科技、思泉新材、祥鑫科技、中鼎股份、溯联股份、高澜股份、申 菱环境、科创新源、同飞股份、宏盛股份、奕东电子等。 风险提示 海外数据中心如谷歌等扩张速度低于预期、液冷渗透率低于预期、国内液冷供应商出海 进度低于预期、市场竞争加剧、假设条件变化影响测算结果。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0860523070005 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore prices continued their weak and volatile trend this week. Affected by the seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious steel mill procurement, the demand side weakened marginally. The supply side maintained stable shipments, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Coupled with the high valuation, the upward momentum of prices was suppressed. Although there was some order resilience in the finished product market, the clear characteristics of the terminal seasonal off - season made it difficult to provide effective support. In the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The market focus shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It was expected that prices would continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to cost support and restocking rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%) [3][38]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][47]. - **Ocean Freight**: The ocean freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the ocean freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%) [53]. - **Domestic Port Arrival Volume**: This week, the iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%) [55]. - **Domestic Mine Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37,100 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons per day (-1.62%) [57]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%) [63]. - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%) [65]. - **Global Steel Production**: The report presents data on global blast furnace pig iron production, Chinese blast furnace pig iron production, and global crude steel production through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [71][75][76]. - **Port Dispatching Situation**: The report presents data on the seasonal dispatching volume of 45 ports and the daily average dispatching volume of Qingdao Port through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [83][84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%) [87]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%) [95]. 3.4 Futures Market - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.06%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the screw - to - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.003 [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread on the Futures Market**: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.50 yuan per ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.50 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan per ton. The spreads between the domestic and foreign markets and between different varieties maintained narrow - range fluctuations, and there was no obvious structural differentiation [3]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The report presents data on iron ore futures positions, trading volume, and exchange - registered warrants through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [11][12][16]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report presents data on the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder price through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [17][19][22]. - **Lump - to - Powder Ore Price Spread**: The report presents data on the blending ore price spread, lump - to - powder ore price spread, and price spreads between different grades through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [23][26][29]. 3.6 Market Viewpoint Summary - **Overall Market Viewpoint Summary**: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand but with improved expectations. With high inventories, prices fluctuated strongly, and macro - sentiment supported prices. - **This Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 5 institutions were bullish, 7 were neutral, and 1 was bearish. - **Last Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 3 institutions were bullish, 12 were neutral, and 3 were bearish. - **Points of Disagreement and Expected Differences**: The game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand dominated the short - term divergence in the iron ore market [6]. 3.7 Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics - **Steel Mill Dynamics**: On December 23, 2025, MagIron, a US steel raw material developer, planned to acquire the local Reynolds pellet plant; on December 24, 2025, Morocco's Somasteel company invested tens of millions of dollars to build a new steel mill; on December 26, 2025, the No. 2 blast furnace of ArcelorMittal's Fos - sur - Mer steel mill in France fully resumed production after a fire [4]. - **Mine Dynamics**: On December 22, 2025, Canadian mining company Champion Iron planned to acquire Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber for $289 million; on December 26, 2025, the Guinea iron ore project of US mining company Ivanhoe successfully obtained the railway and port use agreement; on December 26, 2025, Australian exploration company Pear Gull completed the sale of its Parrot Island iron ore project [4]. - **Macro - news**: On December 22, 2025, the Premier of the State Council proposed to plan a number of major projects that could drive the overall situation; on December 22, 2025, the December LPR remained unchanged; on December 23, 2025, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation with increased trading volume; on December 23, 2025, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to promote the spot - house sales system; on December 24, 2025, the initial value of the annualized growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%; on December 25, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000; on December 26, 2025, the renovation of old residential communities that started construction in the first 11 months had completed the annual plan; on December 26, 2025, China responded to the US tariff policy on China's semiconductor 301 investigation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - Consensus is beginning to form, marking a historical moment. The non-ferrous sector saw significant gains, particularly a 3.69% increase on a single day. The previously noted lagging performance of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities is gaining market recognition. Looking ahead, the report anticipates that commodity prices may continue to reach historical highs in 2026, suggesting active monitoring of investment opportunities in related sectors [9][13]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with soaring physical prices reflecting a fundamental reaction to the erosion of trust in fiat currency systems. On December 26, silver prices surged by 10.47% in London and 11.15% on COMEX, indicating a systemic re-evaluation of asset values. The report forecasts continued record-breaking prices for precious metals in 2026, recommending a focus on investment opportunities in this sector [14]. - Copper: Labor disputes may exacerbate supply shortages, with expectations for rising copper prices and smelting fees. A potential strike at the Mantoverde copper mine could impact production, with an estimated output of around 30,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025. The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission is encouraging consolidation in the copper smelting industry, which may improve smelting fees. The outlook remains positive for copper prices and smelting fees in 2026 [15]. - Aluminum: The National Development and Reform Commission may promote mergers and acquisitions among alumina producers, with aluminum prices expected to reach new highs due to the copper-aluminum price ratio effect. The report highlights the potential for steady profit growth in electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the acceleration of aluminum substitution for copper in air conditioning applications [16]. Steel Industry - Supply and Demand: The report indicates a slight increase in pig iron production, while steel demand is showing marginal weakness. The weekly consumption of rebar was reported at 2.03 million tons, reflecting a significant decrease of 2.86% week-on-week and 7.70% year-on-year [17][19]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have decreased overall, with a slight accumulation in medium and heavy plates. Total inventory was reported at 8.73 million tons, down 3.74% week-on-week [22]. - Profitability: Cost differentiation is noted, with a recovery in steel profitability. The report states that the cost of long-process rebar has slightly decreased by 0.43%, while short-process costs have decreased by 0.13%. The profitability for long-process rebar has increased by 16 CNY per ton [29][32]. - Steel Prices: Overall steel prices have seen a slight decline, with the general steel price index decreasing by 0.28%. The report highlights that the price of cold-rolled steel has decreased by 0.58% week-on-week [36]. New Energy Metals - Supply: In November 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 84.78% year-on-year, reaching 82,300 tons. The report also notes a slight increase in hydroxide lithium production [40]. - Demand: The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in November 2025 maintained significant year-on-year growth, with production at 1.771 million units, up 17.89% year-on-year [44]. - Prices: Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have all increased. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 120,400 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.89% [49].

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a stable upward trend, with a potential for a red closing in the upcoming trading days despite minor fluctuations [3][10][15] Industry Comparison - The market has shown a consistent expectation for a rally in technology and dividend stocks since March 2023, indicating that the investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks after a four-year lull [4][16] Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks across three main lines: 1) The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation due to technological empowerment and supply constraints, with a focus on new materials, chemicals, metals, and agricultural products [5][17] 2) The consumer sector, which has been stagnant for years, is at a turning point with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction, suggesting potential price increases [5][17] 3) The manufacturing sector is transitioning from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues," with attention on communication, electronics, power equipment, and machinery that show performance verification expectations [5][17] Thematic Investments - Key areas of focus include: - Aerospace satellites, which are becoming a short-term market focal point, with potential for increased volatility and significant IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [6][18] - Price increases in upstream sectors, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and new energy industries [6][18] - Artificial intelligence, which has shown rotation across various segments but with lower-than-expected intensity, suggesting a need for continued monitoring [6][18] - Nuclear fusion, which is moving from theoretical research to engineering practice, indicating a potential for significant investment demand as commercialization progresses [6][18] Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to expand production next year, and the capitalization processes of major domestic memory chip manufacturers are advancing, highlighting opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers and semiconductor materials [7][19] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector has seen prolonged adjustments, but potential industry catalysts may emerge in the first quarter, warranting attention on the solid-state battery supply chain [7][19]

年末煤炭供应显著收缩，动力煤短期有望 止跌 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）在港口逐步去库的背景下，动力煤价格有望止跌，焦煤价格短期在季节 性补库的背景下走势偏强；（2）近期煤炭板块持续回调，市场对煤价预期较为悲观，短 期煤价止跌有望带来板块情绪的回暖，建议关注板块止跌反弹的机会。 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 | 2025-12-21 | | --- | -- ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡有韵，结构为舟 朝闻道 20251229 市场策略 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时 风格策略 年末注意优选结构，中期择时中盘蓝筹 行业策略 公用事业：电力商品属性的定价有望为行业提估值 主题策略 智能驾驶：产业链暖风频吹，投资者心花渐开 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、海外贸易摩擦加剧等风险 ⚫ 指数连阳反弹，再次站上 3900 点。自 8 月下旬以来，上涨指数围绕 3900 上下 100 多点震荡的格局较为清晰。微观筹码看，指数上有压力，下有半年线附近的支撑。 在指数未突破区间上下沿之前，保持震荡思维和轮动思路，以小周期的择时节奏把 握区间超额。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：沪深 300ETF（510300） ⚫ 立足中期视角，兼顾短期择时，在估值适中、机构低配、波动率收敛的板块和行业 中选择景气边际改善的中盘蓝筹品种，关注全球供给重塑及金融属性加持的周期 品、能以业绩验证预期的先进制造以及筹码结构得以优化的电子行业。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：中证现金流 ETF（159235）、有色 ETF（159980）、黄金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - Electricity consumption growth remains high, but there are signs of pressure on long-term contract electricity prices due to falling coal prices and high inventory levels [7] - The utility sector is viewed as a defensive asset, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [7] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity attributes to support the complex new power system [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, a recovery from October's 4.2 percentage point decline, with a cumulative growth of 1.0% for January to November 2025 [10] - The growth rates for different sectors in November 2025 were: primary industry +7.9%, secondary industry +4.4%, tertiary industry +10.3%, and residential consumption +9.8% [10] - The report anticipates that December 2025 will see electricity consumption growth maintain around 5-6% due to ongoing growth in sectors like charging services and information technology [10] Electricity Prices - From December 19 to December 26, 2025, the average clearing price in Guangdong's electricity market was 308 RMB/MWh, up by 3.9% year-on-year [21] - In contrast, Shanxi's average market price dropped to 179 RMB/MWh, down 54.9% year-on-year [21] Coal Prices - Port coal prices continue to decline, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 672 RMB/ton, down 4.4% week-on-week [24] - The report notes a divergence in pit coal prices, with Shanxi's Q5500 coal price stable at 550 RMB/ton, while Inner Mongolia's price fell by 1.7% [24] Hydrology - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was 171 meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 meters, while inflow rates decreased by 13.7% year-on-year [31] Market Performance - The utility sector index rose by 0.8% but underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.9% [40] - Among sub-sectors, gas showed the highest weekly increase at +2.6%, while hydropower decreased by 0.8% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, citing improved business models and growth potential [7]

Economic Growth Insights - The US GDP for Q3 2025 showed a significant growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[7] - Personal consumption contributed 3.5% to GDP growth, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter, indicating strong consumer spending[7] - The final sales of domestic private purchasers recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand despite economic uncertainties[7] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a slight contraction of -0.3%, with non-residential construction and residential investment declining by -6.3% and -5.1%, respectively[7] - AI-related investments remain a key driver, with equipment and intellectual property investments growing at 5.4%, although this is a significant drop from earlier in the year[7] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated at approximately 0.6% for Q3, but the growth rate is expected to slow down[7] Employment and Economic Risks - The job market shows signs of significant weakness, with a three-month moving average of new jobs at only 22,000, indicating a potential recession[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a level historically associated with economic downturns[7] - Risks of inflation rebounding and the economy slipping into recession are highlighted as major concerns for future growth[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig industry, with pessimistic expectations likely to be corrected [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, suggesting that recent policies and market dynamics will drive capacity reduction, benefiting long-term performance. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the report notes a continuing structural growth trend, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain if the current capacity reduction in pig farming proceeds smoothly. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities. Related stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Not Rated), and Longping High-Tech (000998, Not Rated) [3] - The pet sector is noted for being in a phase of growth and price increases, with continuous expansion in overseas markets and rising domestic brand recognition. Key stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig industry, with the average price of live pigs as of December 26 at 11.63 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [13] - The report notes that the supply side is experiencing structural shortages, leading to price increases for medium and large pigs, with expectations of increased sales activity from smallholders as the New Year approaches [13] - The report also covers the white feather broiler chicken market, indicating a return to low volatility with prices rising to 7.82 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [19] - The report highlights the feed sector, noting that raw material prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices at 2338.63 CNY/ton, down 0.43% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3174.86 CNY/ton, up 1.20% [29]

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]