核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济波动影响下游需求风险、铜矿扩产进度超预期风险、铜冶炼扩产超预期风险 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 供给短缺是利好铜价的中期逻辑，积极锚 定资源增储或成行业趋势 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 09 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | ⚫ 铜矿端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业 (601899，买入)；其他标的：洛阳钼业(603993，未评级)、金诚信(603979，未评 级)。 ⚫ 铜冶炼端相关标的：铜陵有色(000630，未评级)、江西铜业(600362，未评级)。 有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.8 CNY, based on a 12X valuation of the estimated EPS for 2025-2027 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a steady increase in profit per ton, driven by a strategic shift towards high-end products and continuous capacity expansion [2][11]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2025 reached 8.874 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 464 million CNY, up 35.94% year-on-year [11]. - The company is focusing on high-end, green, and intelligent manufacturing, which is expected to enhance processing fees and stabilize profit margins [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 26,442 million CNY - 2024: 32,321 million CNY (22.2% YoY growth) - 2025: 36,887 million CNY (14.1% YoY growth) - 2026: 40,090 million CNY (8.7% YoY growth) - 2027: 43,240 million CNY (7.9% YoY growth) [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 1,347 million CNY in 2023 to 2,315 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 17.1% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - The EPS is expected to increase from 1.08 CNY in 2023 to 1.86 CNY in 2027 [9]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company has produced 1.1808 million tons of aluminum plates and foils in the first three quarters of 2025, with a single-season production of 384,200 tons in Q3 2025 [11]. - New production lines are being established to enhance high-end aluminum processing capabilities, including projects aimed at the automotive and green energy sectors [11]. - The company is also upgrading its waste aluminum recycling technology, which is expected to yield higher profits as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism is implemented in 2026 [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that green and low-carbon initiatives will become a significant focus, as highlighted by the release of the white paper "China's Actions on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" [2][8] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, particularly in sectors like polyester, MDI, and PVC, driven by policy support and market dynamics [3][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends buying shares of Wan Kai New Materials (301216) for its leading position in the green polyester industry. It also suggests buying shares of Wanhua Chemical (600309), a leader in MDI, while PVC-related companies such as Zhongtai Chemical (002092), Xinjiang Tianye (600075), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618), and Tianyuan Co. (002386) are rated as not yet evaluated. Companies like Chuanheng Co. (002895) and Yuntianhua (600096) are also noted for their growth potential driven by energy storage [3] Industry Trends - The report notes that the chemical industry has shown improved performance recently, particularly in polyester, PTA, organic silicon, chlor-alkali, and phosphate sectors. Despite a decline in the overall industry sentiment in Q3, there is optimism for recovery driven by demand-side improvements and policy changes [8] - The report highlights that the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle and easing tariff issues may lead to marginal improvements in demand, while emerging markets provide long-term growth potential for chemical products [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side relaxation continues to suppress pig prices, with a significant acceleration in the reduction of breeding sows in October [2] - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][38] - The planting chain shows a positive outlook with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][38] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week [11] - The price of 15 kg piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 4.41% week-on-week [11] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss phase, with pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaning pig prices around 200 yuan/head [8][11] Poultry - The white feather broiler price remains stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while chick prices have decreased to 3.54 yuan/chick, down 1.12% week-on-week [16] - The supply of broilers is increasing, but purchasing enthusiasm remains low [16] Feed Sector - Corn and wheat prices have decreased, while soybean meal prices have increased slightly [24] - The average price of corn is 2238.53 yuan/ton, down 0.07% week-on-week [24] Bulk Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber price is 14995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week-on-week, with a new round of inventory replenishment starting [34] - The overall supply remains ample, and the market is characterized by weak demand [34] Investment Recommendations - Positive outlook for the pig farming sector with recommended stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [3][38] - The planting sector shows promising fundamentals with recommended stocks such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][38] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommended stocks including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [3][38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The release of the Shuguang super node marks a significant breakthrough in domestic computing power, showcasing advantages over traditional intelligent computing methods through high-speed interconnection technology, which enhances bandwidth and reduces latency [6] - The Shuguang Scale X640 super node, launched on November 6, 2025, is the world's first 640-card single-cabinet super node, designed for training trillion-parameter models, improving performance by 30%-40% compared to traditional solutions [6] - Domestic computing power and super nodes are expected to continue achieving breakthroughs, with the Shuguang X640 demonstrating top-tier performance, efficiency, reliability, and openness in the AI computing system [6] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), Zhongke Shuguang (603019, Buy), and others that are either rated or not rated [3] Industry Overview - The report focuses on the computer industry in China, highlighting advancements in domestic computing capabilities and the competitive landscape [4][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the long-term nature of overseas expansion, highlighting the increasing penetration rate of cross-border e-commerce in foreign trade and maintaining a positive outlook on leading companies with strong performance resilience and those with marginal performance improvements [3] - The report notes that the recent easing of tariffs and the ongoing strong growth trend in cross-border e-commerce are expected to enhance the ability of Chinese foreign trade enterprises to respond to external shocks and improve their global layout [7] Summary by Sections Cross-Border E-Commerce Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cross-border e-commerce sector achieved revenue of 56.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, with a three-year CAGR of 24.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.59 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year, with a three-year CAGR of 20.2% [7] - The revenue growth rate slightly slowed due to trade friction and increased competition, but the net profit growth rate showed significant improvement [7] - In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue grew by 14.3% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 29.6%, indicating operational resilience and improved cost management despite rising tariff costs [7] Market Outlook - The report anticipates strong performance during the upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping events, with consumers showing early planning, trust, and value-seeking behaviors [7] - Online sales during the 2025 holiday shopping season in the U.S. are expected to reach $253.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [7] - The report highlights that cross-border e-commerce companies leverage China's efficient industrial clusters to export competitively priced products, with some transitioning from Amazon brands to multi-channel brands [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resilient leading companies and those with improving performance in the cross-border e-commerce sector, with specific stock suggestions for both B2B and B2C segments [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the opportunity to capitalize on the year-end credit spread compression trend, with expectations of a slowdown in the rate of future increases, particularly in medium to long-term coupon-bearing products [12][13] - The report suggests that the central bank's resumption of bond purchases is not a one-time benefit but aims to encourage banks to expand their balance sheets and support fourth-quarter supply, indicating a potential for continued monetary easing [12][13] - In October, the credit bond yields experienced a significant decline, with the 5Y yield dropping by approximately 20 basis points, and AAA-rated 1Y bonds narrowing by at least 9 basis points, indicating a strong demand for coupon assets [12][13] Group 2 - In the corporate perpetual bond market, October saw a substantial increase in issuance, with 173 bonds issued totaling 172 billion, marking a 22% increase from the previous month, and achieving a net inflow of 52 billion [21][22] - The report notes that the financing costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds slightly decreased, with rates at 2.31% and 2.56% respectively, while the issuance of AAA-rated bonds accounted for 91% of the total [21][22] - The sectors leading in issuance included public utilities, urban investment, and construction, with urban investment bonds from 13 provinces totaling 34.6 billion, and Shandong province leading with 10.6 billion [24][26] Group 3 - The report highlights that the ABS market has seen a widening premium compared to ordinary credit bonds, primarily due to a slower decline in yields, with expectations for overall yield declines to follow credit bonds but limited opportunities for excess returns [16][17] - It recommends prioritizing ABS types with a higher safety margin, such as urban investment ABS and low-risk types like fee income rights and affordable housing, while suggesting that the issuance of ABS from large central enterprises remains a viable option [16][17] - The report indicates that the trading volume of ABS has decreased, with a total issuance of 181.1 billion in October, reflecting a significant drop in financing scale [40]

Market Strategy - The market is expected to reach new highs but will remain volatile due to a lack of strong catalysts in November, which is characterized as a policy and earnings window period [3][9] - The "dumbbell strategy" is recommended for operations, focusing on low-value sectors for medium-term recovery opportunities while short-term investments should target technology growth sectors [9] Sector Strategy - The brokerage sector has ample room for business expansion, particularly in margin financing, with opportunities for valuation recovery as leading brokerages increase their margin financing limits [5][9] - The average margin financing ratio for the top five brokerages is currently at 1.35 times net capital, indicating significant growth potential as the regulatory cap is four times net capital [9] Thematic Strategy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is at a historic opportunity window, with the recent World Traditional Chinese Medicine Conference highlighting its global development potential [6][9] - The sector's high dividend yield and strong cash flow position it as a defensive investment in a complex macroeconomic environment, contrasting with low institutional allocation [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, with a target price of 137.75 CNY, based on a 29x PE for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 12.06 billion CNY, reflecting a 15.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 3.52 billion CNY, up 53.3% [10]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for its continuing operations from 42.5-43.5 billion CNY to 43.5-44 billion CNY, indicating a growth rate adjustment from 13-17% to 17-18% [10]. - The company is focusing on its CRDMO business by divesting its clinical services, which accounted for a small portion of its revenue [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the forecasted revenue is 44.76 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 16.35 billion CNY, representing a 73% increase compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 45.6% in 2025, with a net margin of 36.5% [3][10]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents are projected to increase significantly, reaching 34.01 billion CNY by 2025 [13]. Segment Performance - WuXi Chemistry reported a revenue of 25.98 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a 29.3% increase, with significant growth in TIDES revenue [10]. - The U.S. market contributed 22.15 billion CNY in revenue, marking a 31.9% increase, while European revenue grew by 13.5% [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of WuXi AppTec's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a PE ratio of 17.2 for 2026, which is competitive within the industry [11]. - The report highlights a projected net asset return (ROE) of 24.1% for 2025, reflecting strong profitability [13]. Market Context - The report notes that the pharmaceutical R&D services market is experiencing high demand, which is expected to continue driving WuXi AppTec's growth [10]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing trend of outsourcing in the pharmaceutical industry [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, with a target price of 137.75 CNY, reflecting a 29x PE for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 12.06 billion CNY, representing a 15.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 3.52 billion CNY, up 53.3% [10]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for continuous operations from 42.5-43.5 billion CNY to 43.5-44 billion CNY, indicating a growth rate increase from 13-17% to 17-18% [10]. - The company is focusing on its CRDMO business by divesting its clinical services, which accounted for only 3.5% of revenue in the first three quarters [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been revised to 44.76 billion CNY, 50.39 billion CNY, and 57.07 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.35 billion CNY, 14.19 billion CNY, and 16.58 billion CNY [3][4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 45.6% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 36.5% [4][10]. - The company reported a significant increase in backlogged orders, reaching 59.88 billion CNY, up 41.2% year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [10].