宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 政策更细化，方向更聚焦——学习中央经 济工作会议精神 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 服务消费提振核心 CPI：2025 年 11 月通胀 | 2025-12-11 | | --- | --- | | 点评 | | | 淡 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive investment strategy, suggesting to wait for better timing to enter the market as adjustments increase [6] - The mechanical industry is projected to achieve stable growth in 2025, reflecting the enhancement of China's manufacturing capabilities, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks that show potential for both stable growth and technological advancement [6] - The "ice and snow economy" is evolving from a niche seasonal activity into a vibrant trillion-yuan industry, with significant regional developments and policy support [6] Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a rebound that faces resistance, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases [6] - It is advised to focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks in sectors with improving marginal demand, particularly in advanced manufacturing and electronics [6] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI Cash Flow ETF and various sector-specific ETFs [6] Industry Strategy - The mechanical industry is expected to maintain steady demand growth into 2026, with an increasing importance of technological empowerment [6] - Key areas for investment include lithium battery equipment, industrial mother machines, oil and gas equipment, and engineering machinery [6] - Recommended stocks include CIMC Vehicles and Hangcha Group, with associated ETFs for further investment options [6] Thematic Strategy - The ice and snow economy is characterized by a shift from northern regional activities to a nationwide resonance, with southern regions developing large indoor ski facilities [6] - There is a growing trend of integrating local cultural elements into winter sports, supported by government policies aimed at promoting the ice and snow economy [6] - Relevant ETFs for this sector include tourism ETFs [6]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 服务消费提振核心 CPI 2025 年 11 月通胀点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 全球资本开支仍是出口主线：11 月进出口 | 2025-12-10 | | --- | --- | | 点评 | | | 12 月鹰 ...

温氏股份 300498.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 生猪出栏创新高，黄鸡景气盈利延续 ——温氏股份 11 月销售简报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 1.01/1.62/2.35 元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 1.91/1.93 元，主要由于 24 年行业盈利后提升产能利用率导致周期波动，调整了营收 和毛利率），根据可比公司估值法，给予公司26年14x估值，对应目标价22.68元， 维持"买入评级"。 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动；投资收益及公允价值 波动风险。 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年12月10日） | 16.86 元 | | 目标价格 | 22.68 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.88/15.11 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 665,393/596,271 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 112,185 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 农业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | ...

Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to experience stable growth in 2026, driven by domestic policy support and the increasing importance of technology empowerment, particularly benefiting mid-cap blue-chip companies [3][8][15] - Key investment opportunities are identified in eight sub-sectors: lithium battery equipment, industrial mother machines, oil and gas equipment, forklift equipment, machinery for overseas markets, engineering machinery, coal machinery, and light industrial equipment [3][18] - The humanoid robot sector is approaching a production inflection point, presenting investment opportunities for mid-cap blue-chip companies within this segment [3][8] Sub-sector Summaries 1. Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in new orders, reflecting a growth trend [19][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from the development of solid-state batteries, with commercial production anticipated by 2027, leading to increased demand for related equipment [23][25] 2. Industrial Mother Machines - The industrial mother machine sector is projected to maintain stable growth, supported by favorable policies and increasing domestic demand [27][29] - The market is expected to see improvements in profitability as the demand for high-end CNC machines increases, with a current low penetration rate of domestic products [30] 3. Oil and Gas Equipment - The oil and gas equipment sector faced challenges in 2025 but is expected to recover in 2026 due to policy support and increasing demand [33][35] - The sector is likely to benefit from the growing demand for gas turbines driven by the rapid construction of data centers [35][36] 4. Forklift Equipment - The forklift industry demonstrated resilience in 2025, with sales growth driven by domestic and international demand [39][41] - The introduction of AI-powered products is expected to create new growth opportunities in the sector [46] 5. Machinery for Overseas Markets - The machinery sector for overseas markets faced challenges in 2025 but is anticipated to recover in 2026 as U.S. demand improves [49][57] - Companies are expected to enhance their profitability through cost management strategies and product optimization [57] 6. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing growth driven by both domestic and international markets, with significant sales increases in excavators [59][61] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects and the replacement of aging equipment [61][62] 7. Coal Machinery - The coal machinery sector is under pressure in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 as market conditions stabilize [68]

Core Insights - The defense industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, marking a turning point in demand, with a new round of growth anticipated as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins [2][8][24] - The focus on new combat capabilities, including unmanned systems, deep-sea technology, and military AI, is expected to drive significant advancements in the industry [2][8][32] - The commercial aerospace and gas turbine markets are projected to grow, driven by increased demand and recovery in the aviation sector post-pandemic [2][8][31] Group 1: Industry Overview - The defense industry has stabilized and is showing signs of recovery after a period of demand stagnation from 2023 to 2024, with revenue growth returning in 2025 [8][14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to create synergies between military and civilian sectors, enhancing overall industry growth [8][29] - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to heightened military spending globally, with defense budgets expected to continue rising [26][30] Group 2: New Combat Capabilities - New combat capabilities are expected to focus on unmanned systems, deep-sea operations, and information technology, with an emphasis on modernizing military capabilities [2][32][36] - The development of unmanned systems is seen as critical, with a growing emphasis on both offensive and defensive capabilities in modern warfare [2][43][44] - The integration of AI into military operations is expected to enhance decision-making and operational efficiency across various combat scenarios [2][32][36] Group 3: Commercial Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for significant growth, particularly in the gas turbine market, driven by increased orders and recovery in engine deliveries [2][31][32] - The commercial space sector is also expanding, with advancements in satellite technology and launch capabilities expected to accelerate growth [2][31][32] - The military trade market is anticipated to strengthen, with Chinese equipment gaining recognition and market share in international markets, particularly in the Middle East [2][31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.03 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a year-on-year growth of 54.7% in cumulative sales for the first 11 months [11]. - The establishment of a subsidiary to enter the robotics sector indicates a strategic move towards diversifying its business model [11]. - The company is expected to gradually turn profitable in its self-owned brand segment, supported by a steady global expansion [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 6.055 billion, 7.086 billion, and 8.291 billion CNY respectively, with a maintained average PE valuation of 23 times for comparable companies [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 180.654 billion, 200.457 billion, and 219.509 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 13.1%, 11.0%, and 9.5% respectively [5][12]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 16.2% in 2025 to 17.4% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 3.4% to 3.8% over the same period [5][12]. Sales Performance - In November, the company's overall sales reached 284,200 units, marking a 2.5% year-on-year increase and a 2.1% month-on-month increase [11]. - The company's new energy vehicle sales reached a record high in November, with 12,620 units sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.3% [11].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-6332 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The National Medical Insurance Administration is strongly encouraging the high-quality development of innovative drugs, with clear policies supporting the payment side for innovative drugs. Domestic leading innovative drug companies are entering a commercial realization phase [3][7]. - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug List includes 127 products, with 114 successfully added, of which 50 are innovative drugs, marking a historical high. The overall negotiation success rate reached 90%, the highest in nearly seven years [7]. - The report highlights that the domestic innovative drug market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading companies like Heng Rui and Xin Da Biotech significantly benefiting from the new insurance policies [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (600276, Buy), Ke Lun Pharmaceutical (002422, Buy), Xin Li Tai (002294, Hold), Ao Sai Kang (002755, Buy), Jing Xin Pharmaceutical (002020, Buy), and others [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the introduction of the commercial insurance directory marks the beginning of a "new golden decade" for Chinese innovative drugs, with a focus on high clinical efficacy and value innovation [7]. - The report emphasizes that the competition in the GLP-1 market remains clear, with the entry of new drugs not significantly altering the competitive landscape for existing treatments [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is poised for growth due to favorable policy changes and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for brokerage firms [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand from domestic and international markets, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are set to be clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The report notes a slight recovery in market sentiment following favorable policies for domestic insurance companies and a shift in the U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - It suggests that the "slow bull" market will continue, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks being the backbone of the market's upward movement [4][9] Industry Strategy - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a positive regulatory environment that encourages the differentiation of firms, promoting high-quality development and improved profitability [5][9] - The military sector is projected to see growth driven by new production capabilities and the expansion of military trade markets, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced equipment [6][9]