日期：2025年12月19日 1. 低利率环境如何演变 | 姓 | 名 | 齐晟（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 杜林（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 王静颖（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 徐沛翔（证券分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮 | 箱 | qisheng@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | dulin@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | wangjingying@orient | 邮 | 箱 | xupeixiang@orientse | | | | m.cn | | | m.cn | | | sec.com.cn | | | c.com.cn | | 电 | 话 | 18930809670 | 电 | 话 | 17611226630 | 电 | 话 | 15674975413 | 电 | 话 | 13317003002 | | | 执业证书编号 | S0860521120001 | | 执业证书编号 | S0860522080004 | ...

Group 1 - The expected low interest rate environment is changing, impacting investor behavior, leading to a slowdown in both entity financing and financial expansion [6] - Financial institutions such as wealth management and insurance are altering their asset allocation strategies, influenced by changes in tax policies and new fund regulations [6] - The mainstream investment strategy in the bond market is shifting from "trading" to "coupon collection," with bond prices expected to experience sideways fluctuations and slight weakening [6] Group 2 - In 2025, the bond market experienced a review where the central bank shifted from tightening to loosening, causing fluctuations in the bond market [9] - The first quarter saw the central bank pause government bond purchases, emphasizing the need to guide financial institutions to explore effective credit demand, which raised funding rates [9] - The second quarter faced uncertainties due to tariff issues, leading to a decline in export expectations and a subsequent rise in bond prices as the central bank adopted a more accommodative stance [9] Group 3 - As of November 2025, the net financing amount of credit bonds reached the highest level in five years, with local government bonds balancing out under financing constraints [14] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds approached 13 trillion yuan, with a net inflow exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust primary supply [16] - The financing increment of credit bonds is primarily driven by industrial entities, particularly in public utilities and non-bank financial sectors, while local government financing is expected to stabilize [16] Group 4 - The credit spread has been narrowing, with the strategy of holding credit bonds for coupon collection being favored in 2025 [17] - The yield on non-financial bonds has generally fallen below 2%, making it challenging to find high-yield bonds above 2.2% [17] - The overall yield of credit bonds is fluctuating at low levels, with a widening term spread, indicating difficulty in finding high-yield targets in the industrial bond sector [20] Group 5 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline in issuance and a decrease in the number of outstanding bonds, leading to a shrinking market [25] - The performance of the convertible bond market improved in 2025, with the index achieving a 17.12% increase, indicating strong demand despite a shrinking supply [34] - The aging characteristics of convertible bonds are becoming more pronounced, which may deter some investors but could also enhance scarcity in the short term [26] Group 6 - The changing expectations regarding low interest rates are leading to a decrease in banks' enthusiasm for participating in bond investments [50] - In 2025, banks showed a consistent lack of interest in the bond market, with funds acting independently, resulting in a historical high duration for funds without corresponding low interest rates [54] - The reduction in credit and the increasing reliance on certificates of deposit by large banks are contributing to a widening gap in government bond supply and demand [56]

食品饮料行业 策略报告 看好（维持） 食品饮料2026：大年起点，持旧迎新 ——食品饮料2026年度策略报告 日期：2025年12月19日 姓 名 李耀 邮 箱 liyao@orientsec.com.cn 电 话 021-63325888 执业证书编号 S0860525100001 东方证券股份有限公司 食品饮料2026：大年起点，持"旧"迎"新" • 食品饮料2026：大年起点易涨难跌，核心矛盾在于业绩。我们认为，食品饮料2021-2024年主要在于通过业绩释放来去化估值泡沫，站 在2025年末，板块估值回到历史区间底部，但消费力低迷等因素导致板块处于业绩下修区间，板块核心矛盾回归分子端，也即是业绩。 • 分子端：从结构红利到总量修复，持"旧"迎"新"。我们认为，伴随经济结构转型及居民资产负债表修复，2026年有望成为需求侧的拐 点，在一定时间内，消费的"需求侧L型"与消费的"结构性"特征或将共存，新消费业绩景气延续，旧消费业绩出清；伴随时间展开，消 费有望呈现总量修复与结构性繁荣共存局面，传统消费与新消费均有望实现业绩上修，其中传统消费有望释放业绩弹性。 • 持"旧"：需求探底、经营改善，传统消费将迎来 ...

Core Insights - The policy environment for the real estate sector in 2025 has been relatively subdued, with expectations for a more aggressive policy approach in 2026 to stabilize the market [5] - The central economic work conference in December outlined a focus on stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing measures such as targeted policies, inventory reduction, and encouraging the construction of quality housing [5][18] - Key policy measures anticipated for 2026 include interest rate cuts, mortgage subsidies, and reforms to the housing provident fund system to stimulate demand and support price stabilization [5][20][21] Market Overview - In 2025, new home sales continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10% to 80.77 million square meters as of December 6, reflecting a significant drop of approximately 54% compared to the same period in 2021 [11] - The price index for new homes in 70 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6% in October 2025, marking a continuous reduction in price for 12 months [11] - The second-hand housing market has seen a price decline of nearly 38% since 2021 in major cities, with transaction volumes showing slight growth in recent years [16] 2026 Industry Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to face continued downward pressure, with projected declines in sales area and amount of 8% and 9% respectively, alongside new construction and completion area declines of 12% and 15% [17][27] - The anticipated policy measures are expected to alleviate some of the downward pressure on prices and sales, with a focus on targeted interventions [5][18] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-quality developers, commercial real estate operations, and real estate brokerage platforms as potential investment opportunities [47] - High-quality developers are characterized by low historical burdens, strategic repositioning in core cities, and sufficient impairment provisions [48] - Commercial real estate, particularly shopping centers, is expected to maintain stable growth despite economic slowdowns, while brokerage platforms are positioned to benefit from market recovery and policy implementation [48]

Group 1: Global Narrative Shifts - The "narrative inflection points" driving global capital reallocation include changes in overseas economies, AI advancements reshaping US-China dynamics, and a decrease in China's economic tail risks[4]. - The narrative power is expected to persist into 2026, with global monetary policies remaining accommodative and fiscal expansion opportunities greater in non-US countries than in the US[4]. - The "narrative inflection points" encompass three layers: the end of the "American exceptionalism," Europe's awakening, and the decline of tail risks in the Chinese economy[4]. Group 2: Economic Rebalancing in China - The main theme for China's macroeconomic strategy in 2026 is transitioning from capital reallocation to economic rebalancing, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft[4]. - Key shifts in ideology during the "14th Five-Year" period include prioritizing demand-side policies over supply-side policies, emphasizing consumption over investment, and focusing on "investment in people" alongside "investment in goods"[4]. - Fiscal policy is expected to enter a "rigid expansion" phase, maintaining a budget deficit ratio of 4%, with slight increases in special government bonds and local government bonds[4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - The GDP target for 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with an expected actual completion of 4.9%, indicating a flat "U-shaped" growth trajectory[4]. - Consumer subsidy policies are anticipated to increase by 100-200 billion yuan on top of the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025 to support service consumption[4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9%[4]. Group 4: Industry Opportunities and Risks - From a macro perspective, technology remains a primary investment focus, but consumer investment value is also expected to emerge[5]. - Potential risks for 2026 include the ongoing US-China relationship dynamics, uncertainties in the European economy, and pressures in the domestic real estate market[5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.72 CNY based on a projected EPS of 0.17, 0.24, and 0.32 CNY for 2025 to 2027, respectively, and a reference PE of 78 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to increase its investment in its subsidiary, Aerospace Rocket Company, by 728 million CNY, which includes 128 million CNY from a previous refinancing project [2]. - The investment aims to enhance the subsidiary's capacity to meet the growing demand in the aerospace industry and to support the development of core technologies in commercial aerospace [9]. - The company has a strong position in the commercial aerospace sector, leveraging its experience in traditional aerospace projects and its leading technology in inter-satellite laser communication [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 18,727 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%. However, a decline of 23.7% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 9.6%, 33.1%, and 23.3% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 589 million CNY in 2023, with a decrease of 12.1%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, reaching 1,292 million CNY by 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 525 million CNY in 2023, with a decline of 14.3%, and is projected to grow to 1,042 million CNY by 2027 [5][11]. - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 0.32 CNY in 2027 [5][11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leader in the small and medium-sized drone market and is expected to benefit from the growing demand for low-cost drones [9]. - The investment in the Aerospace Rocket Company is expected to facilitate the development of new technologies and enhance the company's competitive edge in the commercial aerospace market [9]. - The company is also recognized for its strong electronic information capabilities, which are expected to drive revenue growth in its drone subsidiary [9].

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing increased adjustment pressure, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases due to limited rebound heights and accelerated sector rotation [6] - It is suggested to wait for better layout opportunities rather than frequent trial and error in timing [6] Style Strategy - Defensive strategies are emphasized as year-end approaches, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for medium-term timing [3] - The gold sector is expected to benefit from a decline in dollar credit, leading to potential price increases [3] Theme Strategy - The special steel industry is anticipated to undergo high-quality development due to expected cost declines and new import-export management regulations [4] - The implementation of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure and enhance domestic profitability [6] Investment Opportunities - Investment targets include Chifeng Gold (600988, Buy) and Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) as they are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [6]

Economic Overview - November economic data shows a consistent trend with previous periods, indicating weakness in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments, while consumer confidence remains low[7] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, reflecting a significant fluctuation and pointing towards a need for improved supply-demand structure[7] - Retail sales growth in November dropped to 1.3%, influenced by previous high base effects and a decline in consumer confidence post "Double Eleven" promotions[7] Policy and Investment Insights - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully deployed, but the impact on investment growth may take time to materialize[7] - The focus on effective industrial investment is emphasized, with policies aiming for high-quality and sustainable growth rather than mere quantitative expansion[7] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply-demand compatibility and promoting consumption are expected to gradually improve consumer sentiment[7] Production and Trade Dynamics - Industrial value-added output slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, but high-tech industries showed a robust growth of 8.4%, indicating technology's crucial role in overall economic growth[7] - Export delivery value improved slightly from -2.1% to -0.1%, suggesting a narrowing of production fluctuations due to external trade conditions[7] Future Outlook - The market anticipates weaker growth in Q4 compared to Q3, with the expectation that the effects of new policies will take time to manifest, leading to continued economic challenges until year-end[7] - Despite current weaknesses, China's economic momentum remains strong, supported by counter-cyclical policies and a focus on domestic demand, particularly consumption[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is accelerating, with significant developments in satellite terminal projects and successful satellite launches [2][10] - The synergy between satellite launches and ground terminal applications is expected to enhance the overall satellite internet industry [10][11] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to drive demand for unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and operational informatization, highlighting the sector's growth potential [15] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on commercial aerospace companies such as Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Haige Communication (002465, Buy), and others [7][15][16] - It also highlights opportunities in the aerospace propulsion and engine chain, new domains, military electronics, and military trade [15][16] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) rose by 2.80%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.08% [18][21] - The report notes that the defense and military sector ranked 2nd out of 31 in terms of weekly performance [21] Key Developments - The successful launch of multiple low-orbit satellites within a week indicates a trend towards rapid network deployment becoming the norm [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of ground terminal projects as critical components in the satellite communication system, facilitating user access and service [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the sustained upward trend of copper, gold, and aluminum driven by industrial logic, despite uncertainties regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][14]. - It suggests that the primary driver for non-ferrous metal pricing will shift from interest rate expectations to industrial demand growth, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [9][14]. - The report highlights the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase program, which may weaken the dollar's credit [9][14]. - It notes that tight supply conditions are expected to support copper prices in the medium term, with significant inventory shortages in non-American regions [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is poised to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of aluminum as a substitute for copper in air conditioning systems, driven by rising copper prices [9][15]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report anticipates a super cycle for industrial metals, particularly copper, gold, and aluminum, supported by strong industrial demand [9][14]. - It recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the gold sector, particularly companies with improving production metrics [9][14]. - For copper, it highlights companies with significant resource reserves and ongoing production expansion as attractive investment targets [9][15]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, leading to pressure on steel profitability [16][20]. - Weekly rebar consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.40% decline compared to the previous week and a 14.55% drop year-on-year [20]. - Steel prices have shown a slight overall decline, with the average price index for common steel dropping by 1.14% [32][33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales [41]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting increased demand and supply constraints in the market [46][48].