Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's Keling technology is positioned to lead in the multi-modal video generation space, with significant competitive advantages and ongoing technological iterations [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of video generation model advancements and AI empowerment in existing business operations [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted net profits for Kuaishou are projected to be CNY 176 billion, CNY 201 billion, and CNY 247 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report anticipates a 13.5% growth in e-commerce GMV for Kuaishou in 2025, outpacing the market [8]. Video Generation Model Development - The report identifies Keling as a top player globally in video generation technology, particularly excelling in consistency and precise control metrics [8][22]. - Kuaishou's Keling is noted for its rapid iteration and development, maintaining a competitive edge in the evolving landscape of video generation technology [22][33]. User Engagement and Commercialization - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics, including MAU and DAU, show steady growth, with daily average usage time remaining high at 120-130 minutes [8][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of Kuaishou's internal operations to enhance user experience and commercial performance [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9]. Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2024 and FY2025 are 941,168 million yuan (8.34% growth) and 1,004,569 million yuan (6.74% growth) respectively. The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a projected increase to 79,741 million yuan in FY2024 and 132,264 million yuan in FY2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 65.87% [7][15]. AI Application Development - Alibaba has launched its flagship AI application, New Quark, which integrates multiple AI functionalities and aims to transition from a cloud storage and search engine to an AI agent. The application is expected to leverage the high traffic from its existing services and the company's leading AI foundational capabilities [5][9]. - The report highlights that New Quark has achieved a daily active user (DAU) count of 34.3 million, making it the top AI application, with over 200 million total users, predominantly from the post-00s demographic [5][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Alibaba is positioned as a leader in the current AI wave, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s strong AI research capabilities, exemplified by its proprietary Qwen deep reasoning model, are expected to enhance its competitive edge [5][9]. - The report notes that the recent launch of the general AI agent product Manus marks a significant step in the evolution of C-end AI applications, with Alibaba's New Quark poised to capitalize on this trend [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.43 CNY [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 59.47 billion CNY, 82.68 billion CNY, and 101.25 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively, with a comparable company average PE valuation of 21 times [2] - The report highlights the sustained high growth in new energy vehicle sales and the deepening collaboration between the company and Huawei [1][7] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 121.25 billion CNY in 2022 to 213.01 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 15.5% from 2024 to 2026 [4][10] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 11.33 billion CNY in 2023 to 5.95 billion CNY in 2024, before recovering to 8.27 billion CNY in 2025 and 10.13 billion CNY in 2026 [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to decrease to 0.60 CNY in 2024, then rise to 0.83 CNY in 2025 and 1.02 CNY in 2026 [4][10] - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is projected to decline from 20.5% in 2022 to 16.1% in 2024, before slightly improving to 18.0% by 2026 [4][10] - **Valuation Ratios**: The company’s PE ratio is expected to be 21.9 in 2024, decreasing to 12.9 by 2026 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 168.34 CNY, based on a projected EPS of 4.43, 5.43, and 6.67 CNY for 2025-2027 [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience steady growth in its smart cockpit and intelligent driving businesses, driven by new customers and projects [1][9]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 shows a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 33.73 billion CNY in 2025, 40.99 billion CNY in 2026, and 49.03 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1%, 21.5%, and 19.6% respectively [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 21.91 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 46.7%. The revenue is projected to grow to 27.62 billion CNY in 2024, 33.73 billion CNY in 2025, and continue to increase through 2027 [4][12]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1.55 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.70 billion CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 30.6% in 2023 and maintaining around 22.6% growth in subsequent years [4][12]. - **EPS**: The earnings per share are projected to increase from 2.79 CNY in 2023 to 6.67 CNY in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [4][12]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 19.9% over the forecast period, while the net margin is projected to improve slightly from 7.1% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2027 [4][12]. Business Segment Insights - **Smart Cockpit**: The smart cockpit business is anticipated to generate 182.30 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.4%. The company has secured new project orders exceeding 16 billion CNY annually [9][12]. - **Intelligent Driving**: The intelligent driving segment is projected to achieve revenues of 73.14 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant growth of 63.1%. The gross margin for this segment is expected to improve by 4.0 percentage points [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [6] Core Insights - The current phase is characterized by intensive implementation of stable growth policies, with broad monetary easing followed by fiscal expansion, significantly impacting the banking fundamentals in 2025. Enhanced fiscal policies are expected to support social financing and boost economic expectations, benefiting cyclical stocks. Although the net interest margin for banks may face short-term pressure due to a broad decline in interest rates, the concentrated repricing of high-interest deposits and ongoing regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation will provide crucial support for the banks' interest margins in 2025. The year is anticipated to solidify the asset quality of banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment assets under policy support, leading to a potential turning point in asset quality for certain personal loan products that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal [4][22][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on two main investment lines: 1. High dividend stocks, with recommendations for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, not rated), China Construction Bank (601939, not rated), Agricultural Bank of China (601288, not rated), and Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy) 2. Stocks with improved risk expectations and strong fundamentals, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), Shanghai Bank (601229, not rated), and China Merchants Bank (600036, not rated) [4][22][23] Financial Data Overview - In February 2025, social financing grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 2.23 trillion yuan, which is 737.4 billion yuan more than the previous year. The growth in government bonds was a significant contributor, increasing by 1.0956 trillion yuan year-on-year. However, the growth in RMB loans decreased by 326.7 billion yuan, indicating a need for further observation of demand improvement [8][9][12]. Loan Growth Trends - The loan growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% in February 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from January. The total new RMB loans added were 1.01 trillion yuan, which is 440 billion yuan less than the previous year. The report highlights the impact of debt resolution on loan growth, particularly in the context of consumer loans and corporate loans [12][18]. Deposit Growth Analysis - In February 2025, M1 grew by 0.1% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 7.0%. The total new RMB deposits reached 4.42 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.46 trillion yuan year-on-year. The report notes a significant increase in government and non-bank financial institution deposits, attributed to heightened trading activity in the equity market [15][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 12x PE for the retail business in 2025 [3][4][9]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted revenue, particularly in the electronics sector, where revenue reached 1741.5 billion CNY, a 15.8% increase year-over-year [6][9]. - The report highlights a strong user engagement, with active user numbers and purchase frequency both showing double-digit growth for multiple consecutive quarters [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 11588 billion CNY, 12586 billion CNY, and 13322 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are projected at 436 billion CNY, 483 billion CNY, and 510 billion CNY, benefiting from an increased proportion of high-margin products [3][9]. - The report indicates that JD's retail segment is expected to maintain high single-digit to double-digit growth due to ongoing government subsidies and a favorable market environment [6][9]. Segment Performance - JD Retail achieved revenue of 3070.6 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a 14.7% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising to 100.4 billion CNY [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY, up 10.4% year-over-year, with operating profit increasing by 37.1% [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages but are expected to leverage existing operational capabilities without significant immediate financial impact [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD, with a new share repurchase program set to commence in September 2024 [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share [4][9]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted revenue, particularly in the electronics sector [6][9]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted upward due to the better-than-expected impact of the old-for-new policy, with projected revenues of 11588 billion CNY, 12586 billion CNY, and 13322 billion CNY respectively [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, JD Group achieved a product revenue of 2809.8 billion CNY, a 14.0% increase year-over-year, with the electronics category generating 1741.5 billion CNY, up 15.8% year-over-year [6][9]. - The service revenue for Q4 2024 was 660.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year growth, driven by increased user engagement and advertising revenue [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 436 billion CNY, with further increases to 483 billion CNY in 2025 and 510 billion CNY in 2026 [3][9]. Segment Performance - JD Retail's revenue for Q4 2024 was 3070.6 billion CNY, a 14.7% increase year-over-year, benefiting from high growth in home appliances and electronics [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a 10.4% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising by 37.1% [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages but are expected to leverage existing logistics capabilities without significant immediate financial impact [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share [4][9]. Core Views - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the national subsidy policy, which is expected to continue in 2025, enhancing revenue growth prospects [6][9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 11588/12586/13322 billion CNY, up from previous estimates due to better-than-expected results from the trade-in policy [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 436/483/510 billion CNY, reflecting an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [3][9]. - The valuation for JD's retail business is based on a 12x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a calculated market value of 6480 billion CNY [3][9]. Business Segment Performance - JD Retail achieved revenue of 3070.6 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a 14.7% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in home appliances and 3C products [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 10.4%, benefiting from scale effects and operational efficiency improvements [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages and are expected to have a limited short-term impact on overall profitability [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [6][9].

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 阔叶浆供需博弈加剧，二季度浆厂仍有一 定挺价能力 ——纸浆专题报告（一） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 海外核心浆厂在 2025 年一季度连续提涨阔叶浆报价，成本支撑叠加招标旺季即将来 临，文化纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078， 买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利 扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤股份(603733，买入)，中高端装饰原纸龙头华旺科 技(605377，买入)以及食品包装纸细分龙头五洲特纸(605007，增持)。 风险提示 ⚫ 终端需求不及预期的风险；国际贸易摩擦加剧的风险；假设条件变化影响测算结果 的风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 造纸轻工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | --- | --- | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | 谢雨辰 | xieyuchen@orien ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The supply landscape for iron ore is expected to undergo significant changes, with a notable increase in production capacity from new projects, particularly the Simandou project, which could disrupt the current oligopolistic market structure [8][43]. - The steel industry's profitability is anticipated to recover as iron ore prices are projected to decline due to oversupply conditions from 2025 to 2027 [8][43]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Introduction to Iron Ore - Iron ore is a primary raw material for steel production, and its supply and demand significantly impact the operational performance and profit margins of steel companies [14]. Section 2: Supply Dynamics - The global iron ore market is currently dominated by four major mining companies, which account for over 44% of total production [50]. - The Simandou iron ore project, with a total resource of over 4.41 billion tons and an average grade exceeding 65%, is expected to become a major player in the market [54]. Section 3: Demand Trends - The domestic steel industry is entering a new phase, with expectations of continued decline in iron ore demand, while global demand is projected to grow only slightly [3][8]. Section 4: Supply-Demand Balance - The report forecasts a significant oversupply of iron ore from 2025 to 2027, with surplus ratios expected to reach 3.9%, 7.0%, and 8.7% respectively [8][43]. Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on midstream steel companies, particularly those engaged in steel production, with specific recommendations for companies like Shandong Steel and South Steel, which are expected to benefit from a manufacturing sector recovery [3].