呼吸机业务良好，血糖管理快速拓展 ——美好医疗 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2024 年报，我们下调收入预测，上调毛利率预测，我们预测公司 2024- 2026 年 EPS 分别为 1.09、1.37、1.68 元（原预测 25-26 年 EPS 为 1.23、1.51 元），由于公司家用呼吸机业务增势良好，同时公司产品管线持续丰富，新业务、 新客户不断开发，长期空间广阔。根据可比公司 2025 年平均估值，给予公司 2025 年 31 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 33.79 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 大客户依赖风险；下游库存积压风险；新业务拓展不及预期风险；汇率波动风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,338 | 1,594 | 1,937 | 2,355 | 2,878 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.5% | 19.2% | 21.5% | 21.6% | 22.2% | | 营业 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 20 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | | | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | --- | --- | | 0414 | | | 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲：——策略 | 2025-04-07 | | 周报 0407 | | | 从政策博弈到基本面 ...

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 加快建设农业强国，推进农业全面绿色转 型 ——东方证券 ESG 双周报第六十八期 ESG 指环境（Environment），社会（Social），治理（Governance）的英文首字母缩 写，是投资和评估企业的新理念新方法。在分析和投资的决策过程中，不仅要重视企业 的财务信息，也要重视 ESG 非财务信息。考虑 ESG 因素的投资也叫负责任投资，具有 受托人责任，旨在推动公司把社会环境等要求融入到企业业务中去，降低风险，实现价 值创造，产生长期回报。本系列主要从这一角度出发，针对国内外 ESG 相关的政策和热 点进行跟踪和梳理，为长期投资的方向和方法论提供参考。 研究结论 风险提示 卷首语 | 财政部成功发行首笔人民币绿色主权债 | 2025-04-13 | | --- | --- | | 券：——ESG 企业动态双周报第二十九期 | | | 美国证监会终止气候披露规则辩护，欧盟 | 2025-04-06 | | ESG披露推迟：——东方证券ESG双周报 | | | 第六十七期 | | | 顺丰启动航空碳中和计划，亚马逊推出碳 | 2025-03-29 | | 信用投资：——ES ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Continuous attention is recommended for investment opportunities in the steel sector, especially given the recent changes in tariffs and the domestic market's pricing dynamics [14][8] - The steel industry has experienced a three-year adjustment period, and current valuations present a high cost-performance ratio [14] - The upstream iron ore supply landscape is expected to undergo significant changes, potentially leading to a recovery of profitability within the domestic steel industry [14] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Continuous focus on investment opportunities in the steel sector is emphasized, particularly in light of recent tariff increases and potential economic stagnation in the U.S. [14] - The steel sector has seen a three-year downturn, but current conditions suggest improved profitability and stability for leading companies [14] 2. Steel Market Overview - The weekly consumption of rebar increased to 2.74 million tons, reflecting an 8.37% week-on-week rise [15][18] - The overall price index for common steel decreased by 0.72%, with specific products showing varied price movements [15][37] 3. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fee has deepened into negative territory, indicating challenges in the copper market [17] - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to improved profitability for producers [17] 4. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a notable increase, with COMEX gold closing at $3,341.3 per ounce, a 2.65% rise week-on-week [17] - The increase in tariffs is expected to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the gold sector [17] 5. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, indicating strong growth in the new energy sector [16] - The demand for nickel and cobalt remains robust, with notable increases in production and consumption in the electric vehicle market [45][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.24 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 24 times for 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The company's digital energy business is experiencing rapid growth, continuously acquiring new projects, which is expected to become a new growth driver [1][10]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 1.26 CNY, 1.63 CNY, and 2.02 CNY respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 12.70 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with a net profit of 784 million CNY, up 28.0% [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.28 billion CNY, 18.14 billion CNY, and 21.50 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 20.3%, 18.8%, and 18.5% [4][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 20.1% in 2024 to 21.7% in 2027, while net profit margins are projected to increase from 6.2% to 7.9% over the same period [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.94 CNY in 2024 to 2.02 CNY in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24.6 in 2024 to 11.4 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 321.47 CNY, based on a valuation of 167.2 billion CNY using the FCFF method [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit growth have exceeded expectations, with a projected revenue increase for 2025-2026 due to strong performance from new products [2][9]. - The company has demonstrated effective channel reuse for new products, leading to sustained high growth in traditional market bases [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 30,570 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 3.92 CNY in 2023 to 13.79 CNY in 2027 [3][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3][10]. Product and Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit of 9.80 billion CNY, up 47.62% [9]. - The company's flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 39 billion CNY in revenue, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, while the electrolyte drink segment saw a remarkable growth of 261.5% [9]. - The company has effectively utilized its 4 million terminal points, leading to strong growth in its new product lines, including "Bup Shui La" and "Guo Zhi Cha" [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.24 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 24 times for 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The company's digital energy business is experiencing rapid growth, continuously acquiring new projects, which is expected to become a new growth driver [1][10]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 1.26 CNY, 1.63 CNY, and 2.02 CNY respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 12.70 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with a net profit of 784 million CNY, up 28.0% [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.28 billion CNY, 18.14 billion CNY, and 21.50 billion CNY, respectively, indicating growth rates of 20.3%, 18.8%, and 18.5% [4][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 20.1% in 2024 to 21.7% by 2027, while net profit margins are projected to rise from 6.2% to 7.9% over the same period [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.94 CNY in 2024 to 2.02 CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24.6 in 2024 to 11.4 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 321.47 CNY, based on an estimated equity value of 167.2 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit growth have exceeded expectations, with a forecasted revenue increase for 2025-2026 and projected earnings per share of 9.13, 11.85, and 13.79 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][10]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of new product channel reuse and sustained high growth in traditional market bases [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 30,570 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3][15]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3][15]. Product Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit of 9.80 billion CNY, up 47.62% [9]. - The revenue from the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, was 39 billion CNY, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, while the electrolyte drink revenue surged by 261.5% [9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has demonstrated strong growth in various regions, with notable increases in revenue from the Southwest (61.78%) and North China (71.67%) [9]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust distribution network, with 4 million terminal points enhancing its market reach and product availability [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion yuan, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion yuan, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion yuan, down 25.9% year-on-year. The main reasons for the decline in performance are the significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, as well as in the petrochemical sector with MTBE and PVC. Although raw materials like pure benzene and LPG also saw price declines, the extent was smaller, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin. In Q4 2024, there was a significant improvement in the market conditions for MDI and other products, resulting in a quarterly increase in gross margin, but substantial asset impairment provisions and asset write-offs negatively affected net profit [5][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its sales price, sales volume, and raw material price assumptions based on macroeconomic changes. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 4.37 yuan and 5.23 yuan respectively (previously 5.91 yuan and 6.83 yuan), with a new forecast for 2027 set at 6.40 yuan. The comparable company PE valuation for 2025 is set at 15 times, and due to the company's long-term ROE and historical growth being more prominent, a 15% valuation premium is applied, resulting in a target price of 74.29 yuan, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]. Key Financial Information - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 175.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 182.07 billion yuan, 210.05 billion yuan, 224.90 billion yuan, and 234.10 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.8%, 15.4%, 7.1%, and 4.1% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 16.82 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.03 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to 13.73 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 16.43 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.09 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2023 to 15.4% in 2025, before recovering to 17.9% by 2027 [8]. Market Performance - The company's absolute performance over the past week, month, three months, and year has been -8.65%, -19.84%, -19.85%, and -35.27% respectively. In comparison, the relative performance has been -9.24%, -13.97%, -18.81%, and -40.95% against the CSI 300 index [2]. Capital Expenditure and Market Conditions - The capital expenditure intensity has decreased, with a fixed asset increase of 20 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The construction in progress has decreased from a peak of 69.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024 to 47.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating a significant reduction in capital expenditure intensity [10]. - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly due to changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty, leading to further declines in oil prices and prices of most bulk chemical products. The impact of the Sino-US trade dispute may affect raw materials like ethane and LPG, although the company has long-term strategic partners in the Middle East to mitigate some of these pressures [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" due to a significant recovery in industry conditions and the company's position as a leading enterprise benefiting from this trend [2][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 21.61 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.87 billion yuan, a 117.0% increase compared to the previous year [4][8]. - The recovery in the vitamin industry, particularly for Vitamin A and E, has led to a notable increase in prices, which has positively impacted the company's gross margin, reaching 43.18%, an increase of 13.27 percentage points from 2023 [8]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the increasing domestic share of the vitamin market, which has risen to approximately 86% in 2024, as overseas production declines due to various factors [8]. - New projects, such as the methionine project in collaboration with Sinopec, are anticipated to drive sustained growth for the company [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 15,117 - 2024A: 21,610 - 2025E: 23,641 - 2026E: 24,826 - 2027E: 26,496 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2024: 43.0% - 2025: 9.4% - 2026: 5.0% - 2027: 6.7% [4][11] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 2,704 - 2024A: 5,869 - 2025E: 6,271 - 2026E: 6,295 - 2027E: 6,957 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2024: 117.0% - 2025: 6.9% - 2026: 0.4% - 2027: 10.5% [4][11] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.88 - 2024A: 1.91 - 2025E: 2.04 - 2026E: 2.05 - 2027E: 2.26 [4][11] - Target price is set at 28.56 yuan based on a 14x average PE ratio of comparable companies for 2025 [2][5].