Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.91 CNY, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 28.39 CNY [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of Mengniu's cheese business, leveraging its distribution channels for accelerated growth. Long-term growth potential is viewed positively [4][12]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.47, 0.64, and 0.84 CNY, respectively, with a slight downward revision for 2025 from the previous estimate of 0.48 CNY [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 5,322 million CNY in 2023, with a projected decline to 4,844 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 5,444 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth rate of 12.4% [6][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 60 million CNY in 2023 to 240 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 111.1% [6][11]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is projected to improve from 23.9% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [6][11]. - **Market Position**: The company has expanded its distribution network significantly, increasing the number of distributors to 7,797 by the end of Q4 2024, following the integration of Mengniu's cheese assets [11]. Valuation Metrics - The company's equity value is estimated at 148 billion CNY, with a calculated WACC of 9.07% [12][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 243.7 in 2023 to 61.0 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [6][11].

跨境电商发展迅速，业绩稳步增长 ——西大门 2024 年年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.83、1.03、1.37 元，看好公司遮阳面料和 遮阳成品的双重成长性，且盈利能力具备提升空间，参考可比公司市盈率，我们给 予公司 2025 年 14XPE，对应目标价为 11.62 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 遮阳面料业务拓展不及预期；海外电商成品销售增长不及预期；净利率提升不及预期； 国际贸易风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 637 | 817 | 1,073 | 1,331 | 1,655 | | 同比增长 (%) | 27.7% | 28.2% | 31.3% | 24.1% | 24.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 101 | 141 | 182 | 226 | 301 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.6% | 39.0% | 29.6% | 23 ...

风险提示 跨境电商发展迅速，业绩稳步增长 ——西大门 2024 年年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.83、1.03、1.37 元，看好公司遮阳面料和 遮阳成品的双重成长性，且盈利能力具备提升空间，参考可比公司市盈率，我们给 予公司 2025 年 14XPE，对应目标价为 11.62 元，维持"买入"评级。 遮阳面料业务拓展不及预期；海外电商成品销售增长不及预期；净利率提升不及预期； 国际贸易风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 637 | 817 | 1,073 | 1,331 | 1,655 | | 同比增长 (%) | 27.7% | 28.2% | 31.3% | 24.1% | 24.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 101 | 141 | 182 | 226 | 301 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.6% | 39.0% | 29.6% | 23 ...

扬农化工 600486.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 农药行业见底，葫芦岛项目放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司在农药行业且淡季期间仍能保持毛利率相对稳定，业绩具有一定韧性，同时葫 芦岛项目建设进程加速，我们仍看好公司长期成长性。我们根据市场情况对公司主 要产品价格进行调整，并调整 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 14.21、17.48 和 19.45 亿 元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 16.67 和 19.62 亿元），给予可比公司 25 年调整后平均 19 倍 PE，对应目标价 66.31 元，维持增持评级。 风险提示：产品和原材料价格波动，项目投产进度不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,478 | 10,435 | 12,116 | 13,299 | 14,198 | | 同比增长 (%) | -27.4% | -9.1% | 16.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 首批中证全指自由现金流的 ETF 获 批，三大央企增持中国股票 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 17 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1.首批中证全指自由现金流的 ETF 获批：4 月 7 日，首批跟踪 | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 中证全指自由现金流的 ETF 正式获批，包括华泰柏瑞、南方、博时、招商、鹏华、 | | 执业证书编号：S0860519020001 | | | 平安、工银瑞信、大成、华安、中银、华富、方正富邦等 12 家基金公司旗下产品。 | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW115 | | | 2. 三大央企增持 ETF 等中国股票资产：4 月 7 日晚间，中国国新公告，旗下国新投 | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec ...

扬农化工 600486.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 农药行业见底，葫芦岛项目放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司在农药行业且淡季期间仍能保持毛利率相对稳定，业绩具有一定韧性，同时葫 芦岛项目建设进程加速，我们仍看好公司长期成长性。我们根据市场情况对公司主 要产品价格进行调整，并调整 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 14.21、17.48 和 19.45 亿 元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 16.67 和 19.62 亿元），给予可比公司 25 年调整后平均 19 倍 PE，对应目标价 66.31 元，维持增持评级。 风险提示：产品和原材料价格波动，项目投产进度不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,478 | 10,435 | 12,116 | 13,299 | 14,198 | | 同比增长 (%) | -27.4% | -9.1% | 16.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | ...

市场或仍将保持高波动 叢略周报 0414 研究结论 投资策略 | 定期报告 证券分析师 -- 张书铭 021-63325888*5152 zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0860517080001 张志鹏 zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0860522020002 段恰幸 duanyigian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0860524010001 香港证监会牌照:BVI649 021-63325888*6005 xuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0860515100002 相关报告 - 关税风暴,关注国内政策对冲: -- 策略 2025-04-07 周报 0407 风险提示 有关分析师的审明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明, 报告发布日期 2025年04月17日 醉俊 本周（4/7-4/11）A 股市场明显回落，上证指数、沪深 300、中证 500、创业板指数 ● 分别下跌 3.1 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 东方战略周观察：特朗普 4 月关税政策 研究结论 ⚫ 战略动向复盘：近期市场的一大催化剂是特朗普政府反复的关税政策。本文首先梳 理近期关税政策的变化，而后讨论特朗普政策与市场的反身性关系、后续美国与贸 易伙伴谈判的展望。 ⚫ 关税政策梳理：本轮的起点是 4 月 2 日，特朗普在白宫宣布"对等关税"政策 （E.O. 14257），宣布自 4 月 5 日起，美国对全球各国进口加征 10%"对等关 税"，并原计划在 4 月 9 日对部分国家提高"对等关税"税率。同日，特朗普修改 对华小额包裹政策，允许承运人在两种关税计算方法中择其一缴纳关税，一是从价 关税（ad valorem duty），基于申报的包裹价值征收 30%的关税，二是从量关税， 根据包裹数量征收关税，5 月 2 日到 6 月 1 日每包裹征收 25 美元关税，6 月 1 日后 每包裹征收 50 美元关税。 ⚫ 4 月 8 日，在中国反制美国关税后，特朗普签署行政令（E.O. 14259）， 进一步提 高对华关税。"对等关税"税率至 84%，小额包裹从价关税税率从 30%提高至 90%，从量关税也相应提高。5 月 2 日到 6 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 市场或仍将保持高波动 研究结论 风险提示 ——策略周报 0414 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 17 日 ⚫ 本周（4/7-4/11）A 股市场明显回落，上证指数、沪深 300、中证 500、创业板指数 分别下跌 3.11%、2.87%、4.52%、6.73%。其中，农林牧渔（+3.33%）、 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, which may lead to more cautious monetary policies and increased market volatility [13]. - The US economic slowdown and the impact of export restrictions on corporate earnings may cause the stock market to remain weak [21]. - In the bond market, the overall situation is bullish before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven, but the upward trend may be volatile [24]. - In the commodity market, most commodities are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing weak or volatile trends [25][33][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023. Powell said that tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation [12][13]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and the stock market declined significantly. The tariff issue is the main trading logic in the market, and risk - aversion sentiment drives funds into gold [13]. - Short - term market sentiment is over - bullish, and risks need to be noted [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - As of February, 14 US states had more unemployed people than job vacancies, the highest in 14 years. The US may relax the repayment requirements for Ukraine's aid [14][15]. - Powell is worried that the Fed may be caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The market risk appetite has weakened, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait and see before taking action. The H20 chip of NVIDIA faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to export restrictions [19][20]. - The market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the stock index is expected to remain weak [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 104.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.44 billion yuan on the day [23][24]. - Although economic indicators in Q1 showed signs of stabilization, there are still challenges in the future. The bond market is in a bullish trend before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven [24]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in Q1 2025 was 67.844 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased by 7.05% month - on - month. The short - term trend of the oil market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment from January to March increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to factors such as tariffs and weak demand [29][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to decline, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The terminal demand is not optimistic [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price of old - crop corn may be driven up after the May 05 contract delivery [37]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Overseas alumina market transactions are active, and prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Santa Cruz copper project has obtained financing intentions, and establishing a joint venture may be a way to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine [40][41]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Junda Co., Ltd.'s Q1 revenue decreased by 49.52% year - on - year, with a net loss. The polysilicon price may be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the PS2507 contract [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project in Shaanxi is under environmental assessment. The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiuwu Hi - tech and Zhongke Chun cui signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Lithium prices may stabilize in the short term, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the medium - term [47][48]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead alloy smelting enterprises have reduced production by 30%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions [50]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zhuzhou Smelter Group's zinc production in 2024 was 642,500 tons, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots in 2025 [51][52]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [53]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has adjusted the nickel ore royalty. Nickel prices may be supported, and it is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low prices [54][56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and reduce risk exposure [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased slightly. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The long - term impact of tariffs on the textile and clothing industry is negative [61][62]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply has increased, and the demand is fair. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. It is recommended to wait and see due to the macro - impact [64][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is slightly weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and domestic stimulus policies [67]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene enterprise inventories decreased. The potential impact on demand may not be fully priced in, and the valuation has room to decline [68][70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories increased. The market is affected by supply and demand, and the 05 contract may be under pressure [71][72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. With the increase in supply and the possible decline in photovoltaic glass production, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [73]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The near - month contract may be under pressure, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [74].