2025 年 04 月 08 日 农林牧渔 关税反制利多大豆价格，关注种植板块 及种业创新 关注关税反制影响及种业创新政策 大事提醒：经国务院批准，自 2025 年 4 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的 进口商品加征 34%关税。此外，中国自 3 月 10 日起便对产自美国的 农产品（玉米、大豆等）加征 10%-15%的关税。 中共中央、国务院印发《加快建设农业强国规划(2024-2035 年)》。 其中提到，推动种业自主创新全面突破。深入实施种业振兴行动，加 快实现种业科技自立自强、种源自主可控。 本轮关税加征，或影响国内农产品价格。目前中国大豆对外依存度高， 关税反制利多大豆和豆粕，但大豆进口美国占比下降，价格端影响预 计不及 2018 年。大豆价格波动或带动玉米、小麦等粮食价格上涨， 叠加情绪攀升，利好国内种业和粮食种植板块。 生猪养殖：猪价或震荡偏弱调整，需关注出栏体重变化 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.66 元/kg，周环比+0.07%，两周环比+0.31%； 仔猪价格 659 元/头，周环比+1.85%，两周环比+2.28%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.81 元/kg，周环比-0. ...

2025 年 04 月 07 日 安徽合力(600761.SH) 业绩表现稳健，顺周期复苏有望受益 事件：安徽合力发布 2024 年业绩，实现营收 173.25 亿元，同 比增长 0.99%，归母净利润 13.20 亿元，同比增长 0.18%。 经营表现优于行业，海外销售平滑波动：2024 年，叉车行业销 量 128.55 万台，同比+9.52%，其中内销同比+4.77%，出口同比 +18.53%。从公司销量来看，全年实现整机销售 34.02 万台，同比 +16.53%，其中内销同比约增长 8%，出口同比约增长 34%，表现超 越行业，市场份额持续增长。从公司收入来看，全年内外销分别 为 101.86、69.28 亿元，同比-6.37%、+13.33%，海外销售占比进 一步提升至接近 40%，公司加强国际化渠道布局和产品迭代，持 续贡献增量；而国内市场销量和收入的差异主要系产品结构的影 响，参考行业分车型数据（1-3 类电动叉车保持增长，而 4/5 类 内燃车销量有 10%的下滑），内燃叉车的内需压力对收入影响更 甚。 持续投入布局未来，短期或有一定费用压力：2024 年公司主营 业务毛利率 23.25%，同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Mining is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 8.74 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.23 CNY [6]. Core Views - The report highlights rapid growth in oil and gas operations, with a focus on the integrated lithium industry chain entering a production phase in 2025 [1][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.066 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 13.11% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 12.97% to 706 million CNY [1]. - The report anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, projecting 5.359 billion CNY in 2025, 6.227 billion CNY in 2026, and 6.087 billion CNY in 2027 [11]. Summary by Sections Iron Ore Business - The average price for iron ore in 2024 was 109.5 USD/ton, down 9% year-on-year, but the company maintained a premium of approximately 16% over market prices [2]. - The production volume for finished ore was 2.18 million tons, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, primarily due to extreme weather and safety inspections [2]. - The company aims to produce 2.4 million tons of finished ore in 2025, introducing higher-grade iron concentrate products [2]. Oil and Gas Business - The average Brent crude oil price in 2024 was 79.9 USD/barrel, down 3% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved a record equity production of 8.095 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a 29.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Plans for 2025 include reaching an equity production target of 10.74 million barrels of oil equivalent, with significant contributions from the Bajiao Field and Malaysia oil fields [3]. Lithium Industry - The Bougouni lithium mine's first phase is in trial production, with plans for formal production following compliance checks [4]. - The lithium hydroxide project has successfully completed trial runs, with expectations for qualified product output by April 2025 [4]. - The company targets a lithium concentrate production of 130,000 tons and sales of 120,000 tons in 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 767 million CNY in 2025, 821 million CNY in 2026, and 872 million CNY in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.38, 0.41, and 0.44 CNY per share [11]. - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 18.9, 17.6, and 16.6 times, indicating a favorable valuation trend [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" for the construction industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the US-China trade war, with a 34% tariff imposed on Chinese goods, is expected to increase domestic pressure on exports, leading to a focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing investment. This may result in enhanced infrastructure policies to counteract export pressures, particularly in sectors such as road and bridge construction, water conservancy, rail transit, and municipal projects [1][13]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI rose to 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4%, respectively, indicating a marginal recovery in the economy. The construction PMI increased to 53.4%, reflecting accelerated construction activities due to favorable weather and increased project progress [2][14]. - The report anticipates a positive fiscal policy for 2025, with increased support for infrastructure investment and ongoing debt reduction policies, which are expected to improve the fundamentals of the construction sector. Central enterprises in the infrastructure sector are projected to see significant cash flow improvements due to these policies [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The US has imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, which, combined with previous tariffs, is expected to pressure domestic exports and shift focus towards domestic demand and investment stabilization [1][13]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment as a countermeasure to export pressures, with key areas including road and bridge construction, water conservancy, rail transit, and municipal projects [1][13]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a slight decline of 0.27% in the week from March 31 to April 3, outperforming the broader market indices [16]. - The steel structure sector showed strong performance with a weekly increase of 3.49% [16]. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on undervalued construction central enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Railway Group, which are expected to benefit from improved operational metrics and market management [8][10]. - It also highlights the potential of leading design firms in the infrastructure sector, which are well-positioned to benefit from fiscal policy enhancements and debt reduction measures [9][10]. Company Announcements - Significant contracts were announced, including a project worth 31.63 billion yuan by Yaxiang Integrated and a contract worth approximately 9.6 billion yuan by China Energy Construction [29]. Industry Valuation - As of April 3, the construction and decoration industry had a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 9.76 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.78, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [21]. - The report identifies the lowest PE ratios in the industry, with China State Construction at 4.36 and China Communications Construction at 0.54 [21][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Heng Rui Medicine has updated its innovative drug pipeline, entering a harvest period with 19 Class 1 innovative drugs approved for market, 11 in NDA stage, and 16 in Phase 3 clinical trials [2][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From March 31 to April 4, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Hai Chuang Pharmaceutical (20.74%), Yi Ming An Ke (17.89%), Jia He Bio (15.20%), Kang Fang Bio (15.15%), and Mai Wei Bio (12.25%). The top five companies with the largest declines were: Chuang Sheng Group (-24.18%), Teng Sheng Bo Yao (-19.92%), He Bo Pharmaceutical (-17.76%), Mai Bo Pharmaceutical (-17.19%), and Ge Li Pharmaceutical (-12.75%) [1][14]. Key Analysis of the New Drug Industry - Heng Rui Medicine's 2024 annual report reveals its latest research pipeline as of March 2025, with 19 Class 1 innovative drugs approved, 11 in NDA stage, and 16 in Phase 3 clinical trials. The approved drugs include various treatments across oncology, metabolism, immunology, and cardiovascular fields [2][18][20]. New Drug Approvals and Acceptance - In the week, 10 new drugs or new indications were approved for market, 37 new drugs received IND approval, 19 new drugs had IND applications accepted, and 5 new drugs had NDA applications accepted [9][22]. Domestic New Drug Industry Focus - Key highlights include Heng Rui Medicine's JAK1 inhibitor, Aima Xitini (SHR0302), receiving approval for a new indication for adult patients with moderate to severe active rheumatoid arthritis. Additionally, the company has initiated Phase 3 clinical trials for its GLP-1 receptor agonist, HRS-7535, aimed at weight loss [10][30].

2025 年 04 月 06 日 这是一个"黄金坑"！ 本周上证指数跌 0.28%，沪深 300 跌 1.37%，创业板指跌 2.95%，恒生指数跌 2.46%；本周全 A 日均交易额 11367 亿，环比上周进一步下降。在上周周报《4 月：要防一把！》中，我们谈到：一方面要审慎评估国内经济在二季度边际走弱 的概率，一方面美 4 月 2 日对等关税出台，使得全球资金避险谨慎情绪浓厚。 随着本周美对等关税超预期落地，以我国为代表的强硬贸易反制浪潮掀起，我 们认为对于大盘指数有望面临"年内黄金坑"，背后的逻辑在于：一个基本原则 是反制过程中市场经历阵痛，对冲政策落地则风险偏好回升，要相信中美新一 轮政策博弈可以看到国内反制在前，但也要相信对冲在后，类似于国内去年 A 股九月下旬时候，当前全球经济大衰退的情绪存在过度演绎的较大可能，只要 不是全球经济大衰退，国内对冲政策对于大盘指数的积极定价就值得期待。 美特朗普现在不负责任的关税举动确实是在"走钢丝"，但对于当前美关税本质 我们依然放在筹码谈判，而不是引发全球经济大衰退。1、3 月非农新增就业人 数大超预期，当前美国经济还并未明确步入衰退，后续美经济利好政策还包含 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Heng Rui Medicine has updated its innovative drug pipeline, entering a harvest period with 19 Class 1 innovative drugs approved for market, 11 in NDA stage, and 16 in Phase 3 clinical trials [2][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From March 31 to April 4, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Hai Chuang Pharmaceutical (20.74%), Yi Ming An Ke (17.89%), Jia He Bio (15.20%), Kang Fang Bio (15.15%), and Mai Wei Bio (12.25%). The top five companies with the largest declines were: Chuang Sheng Group (-24.18%), Teng Sheng Bo Yao (-19.92%), He Bo Pharmaceutical (-17.76%), Mai Bo Pharmaceutical (-17.19%), and Ge Li Pharmaceutical (-12.75%) [1][14]. Key Analysis of the New Drug Industry - Heng Rui Medicine's 2024 annual report reveals its latest research pipeline as of March 2025, with 19 Class 1 innovative drugs approved, 11 in NDA stage, and 16 in Phase 3 clinical trials. The approved drugs include various treatments across multiple therapeutic areas [2][18][21]. New Drug Approvals and Acceptance - In the past week, 10 new drugs or new indications were approved for market, 37 new drugs received IND approval, 19 new drugs had IND applications accepted, and 5 new drugs had NDA applications accepted [22][23]. Domestic New Drug Industry Focus - Key highlights include Heng Rui Medicine's JAK1 inhibitor, Aima Xitini (SHR0302), receiving approval for a new indication for adult patients with moderate to severe active rheumatoid arthritis. Additionally, the company has initiated Phase 3 clinical trials for its GLP-1 receptor agonist, HRS-7535, aimed at weight loss [30][31].

2025 年 04 月 06 日 美指的第一试金石或是 800 日均线 本期要点：美指的第一试金石或是 800 日均线 上期提到，全天候择时模型尚未发出止跌看多的信号，因此或仍有必 要保持继续观望，等待转机出现。但在这一过程中，美国新的关税政 策或将对全球经济、贸易以及股市造成冲击，尤其是清明节期间美股 跌幅较大，无疑将对 A 股带来压力。 从当前各国股市的反应来看，新的关税政策出来之后，美股的调整幅 度最为剧烈。基于美股过去 10 年来的历史经验看，除了 2020 年疫情 之外，美股每次大的调整往往能在 800 日均线处得到初步支撑，然后 最多出现反复筑底的底部形态。从这个意义看，除非本轮调整的力度 和级别比过去 10 年的若干次调整都要剧烈，否则本轮美股调整的第 一试金石或将是 800 日均线。其背后潜在的逻辑是：800 个交易日大 体相当于一个完整的库存周期长度，价格来到这一对应均线附近时， 往往有可能得到库存周期级别的支持力度，从而有望止跌。 对于 A 股及港股，虽然全天候择时模型仍未发出看多信号，但是我们 的低吸模型却对机器人主题指数以及恒生科技指数发出了提示信号。 考虑到当前美国关税政策出来之后， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a 12-month target price of 3.62 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue at 7.82 billion CNY, down 32.08% year-on-year, and a net profit of -2.98 billion CNY, down 34.61% year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite the short-term pressure on core business, cash flow improved in Q4 2024, turning positive at 748 million CNY, indicating reduced financial pressure [3]. - The company is actively responding to government policies promoting "old-for-new" exchanges, which boosted sales in Q4 2024, with 724,000 orders and sales amounting to 6.69 billion CNY [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company operated 77 self-operated malls and 257 managed malls, with self-operated business revenue at 5.36 billion CNY, down 21.0% year-on-year, accounting for 68.5% of total revenue [3]. - The average occupancy rate for self-operated malls was 83.0%, with over 80% located in prime locations in first and second-tier cities [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 58.26%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -40.79%, a decrease of 20.20 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its "3+Star Ecosystem" strategy, focusing on high-end appliances and home decoration, with plans to establish 100 high-end appliance stores nationwide over the next two years [4]. - The company has also entered the automotive sector, collaborating with 25 car brands and expanding its operational area to 164,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 square meters [4]. Future Outlook - The company aims to gradually recover profitability, with projected revenues of 8.39 billion CNY, 8.78 billion CNY, and 9.12 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.21%, 4.70%, and 3.90% [12]. - The net profit is expected to improve, with estimates of -290 million CNY in 2025, turning profitable in 2026 with a net profit of 372 million CNY [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, maintaining this rating with a 6-month target price of 20 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.748 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.79%, with a net profit of 492 million CNY, up 13.91% year-over-year [2][3]. - The company's core business in surveying and design saw a revenue increase of 5.57%, while the engineering general contracting business surged by 75.25%, increasing its revenue share to 9.26% [2]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, with consistent year-over-year revenue and profit growth since 2017, even amidst industry cycles [2][4]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 38.40%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points year-over-year, driven by the opening of major projects and cost control measures [3]. - The net profit margin for the year was 18.23%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.15 percentage points, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.25% [3]. - The operating cash flow significantly improved, with a net inflow of 567 million CNY in Q4 2024, compared to a net outflow of 530 million CNY in the previous three quarters [3]. Business Strategy and Growth Prospects - The company is a leading player in urban rail transit design in A-shares, with high barriers to entry and strong competitive advantages [4]. - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, including energy-saving renovations and non-rail projects, while also pursuing international opportunities [8]. - Future revenue projections estimate growth to 3.008 billion CNY in 2025, 3.266 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.519 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 543 million CNY, 598 million CNY, and 652 million CNY [9][10].