2025 年 04 月 27 日 美元阶段见底，科技有望崛起 本期要点：美元阶段见底，科技有望崛起 上期提到，市场有望维持底部震荡格局，下行风险有限，事后来看， 市场不但没有下跌，反倒小幅上涨。从纯技术面的角度看，一般下行 破位之后都存在二次探底的隐忧，但一旦破位之时下跌较为充分，那 么二次探底的风险以及探底的程度都相对较小。进一步，如果此时存 在支持反弹的其他逻辑变量，那么短期甚至不太容易出现二次探底。 从短期视角看，这两个支持市场不太容易二次大幅探底的因素或都存 在，因此当下的潜在下行风险或有限。 因为近期仍存在不少结构性机会，所以我们的仓位模型在原来低仓位 的基础上对仓位的判断适当有所提升。在风格上，我们的风格轮动模 型在原来大盘占优的基础上偏向了均衡风格甚至略偏小盘风格。 在具体行业结构上，我们的四轮驱动模型建议关注电子、计算机、农 林牧渔、纺织服饰、汽车、机械设备等板块。在具体指标维度上，我 们观察到从成交金额占比的角度看，过去两周内 TMT 板块的成交占 比已有从低点小幅回升的迹象，消费板块的成交占比则已经从底部回 升了近两个月。 对于海外市场尤其是美元指数，我们的模型上周多次发出了美元见底 的信 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - The ASCO 2025 conference is set to take place from May 30 to June 3, 2025, and several domestic pharmaceutical companies are expected to present new clinical data, with potential for exceeding expectations [2][14]. - A total of 13 new drugs or new indications were approved for market launch in the past week, alongside 50 new drug IND approvals and 27 IND applications accepted [3][17]. Weekly New Drug Market Review - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - Yiming Oncology: +40.20% - Ascentage Pharma: +38.63% - Genscript Biotech: +27.13% - JACOB: +24.52% - Kedi: +24.02% - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: - Boan Biotech: -23.11% - ZhiXiang JinTai: -7.30% - Maibo Pharmaceutical: -7.07% - Aidi Pharmaceutical: -6.30% - Haizhi Pharmaceutical: -3.76% [10][11]. Weekly New Drug Industry Key Analysis - The ASCO 2025 conference will feature multiple oral presentations from domestic companies, including: - Innovent Biologics: PD-1/IL-2 dual antibody with three oral reports and Claudin18.2 ADC with one oral report. - Other companies such as Kelun Biotech, BaiLi TianHeng, and Hengrui Medicine are also expected to present various new drugs and indications [2][14][15]. Weekly New Drug Approvals & Acceptance - The report highlights the approval of 13 new drugs or new indications, including: - Canfuo Biotech's PD-1/VEGF dual-specificity tumor immunotherapy drug approved for new indications. - AstraZeneca's Dupixent for chronic spontaneous urticaria in patients aged 12 and older [4][18]. - Additionally, 50 new drug INDs were approved, and 27 IND applications were accepted [3][17]. Domestic New Drug Industry Focus - Key highlights include: - Canfuo Biotech's PD-1 monoclonal antibody approved by the FDA for metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma. - Canfuo Biotech's new indication for its PD-1/VEGF dual-specificity drug approved by NMPA for non-small cell lung cancer. - Novartis' BTK inhibitor approved for chronic lymphocytic leukemia [4][18]. Overseas New Drug Industry Focus - Notable developments include: - Sanofi's Dupixent for chronic spontaneous urticaria approved by the FDA. - AstraZeneca's Enhertu showing positive results in clinical trials for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. - Gilead Sciences' Trodelvy achieving positive results in clinical studies [5][7].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" indicating an expected investment return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the ongoing stabilization of the real estate market, driven by improved sales, stabilized new home prices, and a rebound in second-hand housing transactions. The political bureau meeting has set a loose policy direction, which is expected to enhance the industry's fundamentals and create investment opportunities [1][2]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are reversing their difficulties, such as China Vanke and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou, Greentown China, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group. Additionally, local state-owned enterprises with diversified operations like Pudong Jinqiao and Waigaoqiao are recommended for stable development [1]. Sales Review (April 19-25) - A total of 14,103 units were sold across 32 monitored cities, representing a week-on-week increase of 9.1%. Cumulatively, 249,000 units have been sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Specifically, first-tier cities sold 4,251 units (up 4.9% week-on-week), second-tier cities sold 8,452 units (up 13.3%), while third-tier cities sold 1,400 units (down 1.3%) [15][20]. Land Supply (April 13-20) - The planned land supply for residential land across 100 cities is 2.5 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 57.58 million square meters in 2025, showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%. The average floor price for land supply is 5,154 CNY per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 7,552 CNY per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [3][24][26]. Land Transactions (April 13-20) - The total planned area for residential land transactions across 100 cities is 1.91 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 52.97 million square meters in 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The average transaction floor price for residential land is 3,022 CNY per square meter, with an overall premium rate of 5% [4][31][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a target price of 17.74 CNY per share [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 581 million CNY in 2024, a decrease of 39.72% year-on-year, and a net profit of 108 million CNY, down 28.85% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 192 million CNY, an increase of 94.09% year-on-year, but a net loss of 20 million CNY, a decrease of 23.22% year-on-year [1]. - The integrated circuit equipment business has seen significant growth, with cumulative orders reaching 1.9 billion CNY since 2020, and new customer acquisitions in 2024 [2]. - The company has successfully launched bismuth materials and deep processing businesses, enhancing its competitive edge in the semiconductor equipment and materials sector [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.22 billion CNY, 1.6 billion CNY, and 1.9 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 164 million CNY, 247 million CNY, and 303 million CNY [4][11]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected to rebound significantly in 2025, with an expected increase of 110.3% [12]. - The company’s net profit margin is forecasted to be 13.4% in 2025, improving to 15.4% in 2026 and 15.9% in 2027 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced a temporary performance pressure in Q1 2025, with revenue of 40 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, down 46% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to enter a growth phase as new product cycles begin, with potential for a sales upturn driven by refined product offerings and direct sales channel expansion [4] - The company has significant export potential and a diverse product lineup, which is anticipated to enhance profitability as new models are introduced [4] Revenue Summary - In Q1 2025, total sales were 275,000 units, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with export sales at 91,000 units, down 2% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 156,000 yuan, remaining stable year-on-year but down 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Profit Summary - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced scale effects and increased terminal discounts [3] - Sales expenses increased to 2.3 billion yuan, up approximately 900 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to investments in direct sales and marketing for new vehicle launches [3] - Non-recurring gains and losses were 280 million yuan, down 900 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to delayed confirmation of scrap tax refunds [3] Outlook Summary - The mainstream market for new vehicles is expected to see a sales upturn, with successful initial results from new models like the Menglong and New Blue Mountain [4] - The Hi4Z technology is anticipated to significantly enhance the Tank brand's market penetration and profitability [4] - The company is well-positioned for growth with a comprehensive product range and strong technical reserves, particularly in the export market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 14.03 billion yuan, 17.40 billion yuan, and 20.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.1, 11.4, and 9.5 times [5] - A target price of 32.79 yuan per share is set for the next six months based on a 20 times PE for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a target price of 19.6 yuan, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.118 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.628 billion yuan for 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16% and 11.41% respectively. For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.353 billion yuan and net profit was 518 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 3.46% and 21.57% [1]. - The mobile gaming segment, which accounts for 80% of total revenue, grew by 13.38% year-on-year, although its gross margin decreased by 2.75 percentage points. The overseas business saw a remarkable growth of 222%, albeit with a low revenue contribution of about 7%, and its gross margin improved by 8.53 percentage points [1][2]. - The company has a clear positioning in the gaming industry, focusing on IP games, and has successfully launched new IPs while maintaining classic titles. The overseas expansion strategy is expected to continue driving growth in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 22.8%, 15%, and 15% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 29.4%, 15%, and 10% respectively. The expected EPS for these years are 0.98 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.23 yuan [3][8]. - The financial metrics indicate a stable performance with a net profit margin of 34.0% in 2023, projected to be 33.5% in 2025, and a return on equity (ROE) of 27.9% in 2023, expected to decline to 22.6% by 2025 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changshu Bank is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.63 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.26 CNY [6]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience, with revenue growth of 10.04%, pre-provision profit growth of 12.58%, and net profit growth of 13.81%. Although the growth rates have slightly declined, they remain at a high level [1]. - The bank's performance is primarily driven by the expansion of interest-earning assets and an increase in net non-interest income, despite a significant drag from declining interest margins [1]. Summary by Sections Asset Growth - As of the end of Q1 2025, Changshu Bank's total assets grew by 6.67% year-on-year, with an increase of 22.4 billion CNY in total assets during the quarter. Financial investments contributed 11.7 billion CNY, accounting for 52.00% of the increase, while loans increased by 8.8 billion CNY [2]. - The loan portfolio saw a year-on-year growth of 6.12%, supported by corporate loans, while financial investments increased by 3.36%. The proportion of loans in interest-earning assets decreased by 1.49 percentage points to 63.36% [2]. Retail and Corporate Lending - Retail loan demand remains weak, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.1% in retail loans. The bank has proactively slowed down retail loan disbursements due to ongoing retail risks [3]. - Corporate loans grew by 13.04% year-on-year, with a stable growth rate. The bank focused on supporting technology innovation enterprises and small businesses, with loans of 10 million CNY or less making up 71.33% of total loans [3]. Liability Management - As of the end of Q1 2025, deposits grew by 9.00% year-on-year, outpacing loan growth, with a continuous optimization of the deposit structure. The proportion of demand deposits increased by 1.06 percentage points to 19.17% [4]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 2.61%, showing a year-on-year decline of 22 basis points but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2 basis points. The bank's loan yield was 5.42%, down 21 basis points from the beginning of the year [5]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 62.01% year-on-year, driven by a 495.23% increase in net fee income, primarily due to a low base last year and increased fees from services like precious metals and insurance [9]. Cost Efficiency and Asset Quality - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 34.74%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, indicating initial success in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [9]. - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.56%. The bank is expected to continue efforts in managing non-performing loans [9]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain resilience in performance, with projected revenue growth of 9.71% and profit growth of 13.39% for 2025. The focus will be on optimizing customer service and enhancing small business lending [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.55 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 7.19 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience by achieving a turnaround in profitability, with a net profit of 0.83 billion CNY in 2024, compared to a loss in the previous year. However, revenue is expected to decline in Q1 2025, with estimates between 3.20 to 3.40 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19% to 24% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and quality, leading to an increase in gross margin by 0.85 percentage points in 2024 and over 10 percentage points in Q1 2025 [2][3]. - The cloud computing segment is anticipated to become a new growth driver, with a 10.09% increase in revenue in 2024, while the cybersecurity business faced a decline of 11.49% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 28.20 billion CNY, down 9.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.83 billion CNY, marking a return to profitability [2][3]. - The Q1 2025 revenue forecast indicates a decline, with expected figures between 3.20 to 3.40 billion CNY, but the net loss is projected to narrow to between -0.75 to -0.65 billion CNY [2]. Business Segments - The cybersecurity business generated 25.50 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, while the cloud computing segment reached 2.56 billion CNY, showing a significant growth trajectory [3][4]. - The company has been actively managing project quality and focusing on high-repayment projects, which has contributed to the improved gross margin [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is strategically positioning itself in the cloud computing space, particularly in areas such as hyper-convergence and intelligent computing cloud platforms, which are expected to drive future growth [4][10]. - The launch of new products, including the intelligent computing cloud platform and integrated computing machines, aims to enhance the company's offerings and support clients in their digital transformation [4][10]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 30.14 billion CNY, 33.00 billion CNY, and 36.39 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to grow to 1.68 billion CNY by 2025 [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.68 yuan for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, up 4.3% year-over-year [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the continued stimulus from the old-for-new subsidy policy, which has boosted domestic air conditioning sales [1]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company's profitability has been under pressure due to rising raw material prices, particularly copper [2]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Q1 revenue increased significantly, driven by the old-for-new subsidy policy, with upstream valve component demand also improving [1]. - The company’s Q1 net profit margin was 7.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to rising copper prices [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 was 150 million yuan, a substantial increase of 118.4% year-over-year, attributed to a decrease in cash paid for goods and services [2]. - The company’s cash balance at the end of the period was 2.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.4% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue expanding its high-margin commercial refrigeration components and automotive thermal management business, which may improve profitability [2]. - Forecasted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.05 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.35 yuan respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of approximately 12.1% for 2025 [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 13.11 CNY, which corresponds to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue of 2.144 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.16%, while the net profit decreased by 6.38% to 274 million CNY [1]. - The company's OTC channel revenue has significantly increased, surpassing the prescription channel, supported by the growth of core products such as the "Kaitoujian" spray [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 16.9%, 16.0%, and 14.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15.3%, 18.2%, and 17.2% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 409 million CNY, a decline of 3.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 42 million CNY, down 25.16% [1]. - The sales revenue from respiratory system medications reached 1.455 billion CNY in 2024, marking an 11.89% increase, with significant progress in the coverage of the "Kaitoujian" product [2]. - The company has established a nationwide OTC direct sales network, enhancing its market presence and operational efficiency [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 2.508 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.909 billion CNY in 2026 [9][10]. - The net profit is expected to rise to 316 million CNY in 2025 and 373 million CNY in 2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [9][10].