2025 年 04 月 28 日 润泽科技(300442.SZ) 引流策略和机房改造扰动业绩，AIDC 长期需求向好 事件概述 公司近期发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司实现营业收入 43.65 亿元， 同比增长 0.32%，实现归母净利润 17.90 亿元，同比增长 1.62%。公 司 24Q4 业务出现一定程度的扰动，主要由于引流策略和机房改造带 来短期影响，但中长期来看，公司 AIDC 业务卡位明确，客户需求良 好，我们仍然看好公司长期的业绩增长。 引流策略和机房改造扰动短期业绩，2025 年影响消除 公司 24Q4 收入和利润均出现一定程度的下降，从而影响公司 2024 年全年的业绩，我们认为主要是两个方面原因的影响： 1）"引流策略"吸引 AI 头部客户，但带来短期收入波动：2024 年为 了抢抓 AI 头部客户的智算建设需求，公司通过搭配销售算力模组的 "引流策略"来加速客户入驻，成功通过全栈式的智算服务赢得了 AI 客户深度信任，在客户多样性方面取得了重大突破。然而根据公 司投资者关系活动表的披露，一方面公司 AIDC 业务中的高性能算力 模组业务的部分收入确认方法从"总额法"调整为"净额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 45.89 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 26.23% year-on-year, reaching 873 million CNY in 2024, although the net profit decreased by 15.03% to 113 million CNY [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 215 million CNY, marking a 51.88% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million CNY, up 64.98% [1]. - The company is focusing on multiple business segments, including automotive electronics, scientific instruments, and industrial safety, which are showing strong growth potential [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 42.34%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.94%, down 6.58 percentage points [2]. - The company expects revenues of 1.03 billion CNY, 1.22 billion CNY, and 1.40 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 131 million CNY, 174 million CNY, and 200 million CNY [9][11]. Business Segment Performance - The HVAC business saw a recovery with a sales increase of 11.57% year-on-year, supported by new partnerships and a full-service production capability [7]. - The industrial and safety business experienced rapid growth, with a sales increase of 136% year-on-year, driven by new product certifications and market expansions [7]. - The automotive electronics segment also showed steady growth, with a revenue increase of 15.97% year-on-year, benefiting from new customer acquisitions [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 35.57 CNY, maintaining the rating [4][8]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, achieving 9.95 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.10%, and a net profit of 1.31 billion CNY, up 27.27% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market share through product structure optimization and channel expansion, particularly in e-commerce [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin slightly decreased to 53.32%, while the net margin was 13.12%, reflecting a minor decline [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.95 billion CNY, a 30.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.31 billion CNY, which is a 27.27% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin was 53.32%, down 1.04 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 13.12%, down 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Channel Performance - The e-commerce channel generated 3.22 billion CNY in revenue in Q1 2025, growing 8.6% year-on-year, while core provinces saw a 26.7% increase and peripheral provinces experienced a remarkable 125.1% growth [2]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy to a multi-channel approach, increasing investments in platforms like Tmall, Pinduoduo, and Xiaohongshu, in addition to Douyin [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 43.20 billion CNY, 55.09 billion CNY, and 70.31 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.76%, 27.51%, and 27.62% [4][9]. - Net profits are expected to reach 3.72 billion CNY, 4.74 billion CNY, and 6.45 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 29.46%, 27.14%, and 36.02% [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 53.90 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous revenue growth in home decoration paint for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit due to reduced expenses and impairment losses [2][3]. - The decline in revenue growth is primarily attributed to the decrease in engineering wall paint sales, while home decoration wall paint revenue has increased due to expanded channels and promotional efforts [3][10]. - The company is transitioning towards high-end retail and enhancing its small B channel network, which is expected to drive growth in both retail and engineering segments [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.105 billion CNY (down 2.97% YoY) and a net profit of 332 million CNY (up 91.27% YoY) [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 2.130 billion CNY (up 3.12% YoY) with a net profit of 105 million CNY (up 123.33% YoY) [2][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.20 CNY per 10 shares and increase capital stock by 4 shares for every 10 shares held [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Home decoration wall paint revenue reached 2.967 billion CNY (up 12.75% YoY), while engineering wall paint revenue was 4.084 billion CNY (down 12.65% YoY) [3]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 29.60%, with a Q4 gross margin of 32.50% [4][8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.369 billion CNY, 14.674 billion CNY, and 16.016 billion CNY, with net profits expected to be 809 million CNY, 959 million CNY, and 1.125 billion CNY respectively [11][14]. - The company is expected to maintain a dynamic PE of 31.7x, 26.7x, and 22.8x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 27.00 CNY per share for the next six months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in new orders and project deliveries, leading to improved performance in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.099 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, and a net profit of 306 million CNY, up 32.54% year-on-year [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 includes laboratory services at 1.857 billion CNY (+15.74%), CMC at 693 million CNY (+19.05%), clinical research services at 447 million CNY (+14.25%), and large molecule and cell & gene therapy services at 99 million CNY (+7.94%) [2][3]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 10%-15% year-on-year for 2025, driven by a recovery in the innovative drug investment and financing sector [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.928 billion CNY, 2.148 billion CNY, and 2.389 billion CNY respectively, with an expected EPS of 1.08 CNY per share for 2025 [4][5]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue from 13.792 billion CNY in 2025 to 17.759 billion CNY in 2027 [5][11]. Market Performance - As of April 25, 2025, the company's stock price was 23.19 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 41.236 billion CNY [6][7]. - The stock has shown a 12-month absolute return of 27.1% [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [10] Core Insights - The retail pharmacy industry is experiencing a recovery in sales, with a 2.97% month-on-month increase in average daily sales per store in March 2025 [4][17] - The structure of listed pharmacy stores is gradually optimizing, which is expected to lead to stable performance growth for several companies [5][29] - The market size of domestic retail pharmacies decreased by 1.77% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 611.9 billion yuan [14] Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - In March 2025, the average daily sales per store in retail pharmacies showed a month-on-month increase, with average sales of 3,020.1 yuan [4][17] - The average daily sales for January to March 2025 were 2,973.8 yuan, 2,933.1 yuan, and 3,020.1 yuan respectively [17] Micro Perspective - The retail pharmacy industry has seen a slowdown in growth, but the concentration of the industry is expected to increase significantly. The market share of the top six listed pharmacies was only 16.89% in 2023 [23] - The revenue growth rates for the retail pharmacy industry and the top six listed pharmacies in 2023 were 1.83% and 11.83% respectively [23] - The proportion of new stores (2-3 years old) for major listed pharmacies in Q1-Q3 2024 was as follows: Yifeng Pharmacy 30%, Dazhenglin 25%, Laobaixing 30%, Yixintang 15%, Jianzhijia 38%, and Shuyupingmin 34% [5][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-B" for the construction industry [9] Core Insights - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, with an emphasis on increasing deficits and expanding the issuance of special bonds, which will support steady growth in infrastructure investment [10][12] - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units indicates a positive trend in the nuclear power sector, with a total investment expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [4][18] - The construction industry is anticipated to benefit from improved government investment and debt resolution measures, leading to a marginal improvement in the industry's fundamentals [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The political bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, including the timely introduction of incremental reserve policies and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [3][16] - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, driven by increased domestic demand and government support for local government debt issuance [3][17] Market Performance - The construction sector saw a weekly increase of 0.76%, underperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index but outperforming the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index [20] - The chemical engineering sector performed notably well with a weekly increase of 5.34% [20] Company Announcements - The report highlights significant contract wins, including China Energy Construction winning a project worth approximately 5.118 billion yuan [33] - The report also notes the financial performance of various companies, with some showing substantial year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit [34][35] Key Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on undervalued construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved financial metrics and market conditions [10][11][12] - It also recommends attention to construction design firms and international engineering service providers that are expanding their overseas presence [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gree Electric Appliances is "Buy-A" with a target price of 61.64 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances reported a strong operational performance in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 13.8% and a net profit increase of 26.3% [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing "old-for-new" air conditioning subsidy policy, which is anticipated to boost sales during the peak season [2]. - Gree's profitability has significantly improved, with a net profit margin of 24.0% in Q4 2024, marking a new high since its listing [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Gree achieved total revenue of 1900.4 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year, while net profit reached 321.8 billion CNY, an increase of 10.9% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 426.2 billion CNY, down 13.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 14.5% to 102.2 billion CNY [1]. - In Q1 2025, Gree's revenue was 416.4 billion CNY, up 13.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 59.0 billion CNY, reflecting a 26.3% increase [1]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 improved significantly, reaching 110.0 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 474.1% [4]. Profitability and Efficiency - Gree's net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 24.0%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved tax efficiency and reduced impairment losses [3]. - The management expense ratio decreased by 1.0 percentage points in Q4 2024, indicating effective cost control measures [3]. - The company has maintained stable product gross margins and marketing efficiency, with a slight decrease in gross sales difference in Q1 2025 [3]. Dividend Policy - Gree plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 117.7 billion CNY, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 52.1%, which is an increase of 6.8 percentage points year-on-year [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 115.85 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [5][9]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in Q4 2024, with revenue of 6.49 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 27.13%, and a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 213.09% [1]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the semiconductor equipment sector, securing orders from leading domestic clients in both front-end and back-end equipment [2][3]. - The strategic investment from Northern Huachuang, which will become the largest shareholder with a 17.88% stake, is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the semiconductor industry [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.754 billion CNY, a slight increase of 2.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 203 million CNY, a decrease of 19.08% year-on-year [1][11]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.648 billion CNY, 3.429 billion CNY, and 4.183 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 339 million CNY, 493 million CNY, and 653 million CNY [9][11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, particularly in photoresist coating and developing products, with strong order growth from both domestic and international clients [2][3]. - The introduction of new products, such as the KS-CM300/200 chemical cleaning machine, has broken foreign monopolies and is expected to drive further growth [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.8 for 2025, reflecting its leading position in the front-end equipment market and promising growth in back-end products [9][12].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a "golden pit" phase, indicating a potential recovery after a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently breaking through 3300 points, suggesting that the market is close to exiting this phase [1][32][36] - The report highlights that the recent political bureau meeting indicated a commitment to proactive macro policies to stimulate consumption and counter external shocks, reflecting confidence in the economic outlook [1][2][32] - The report notes that the EPMI index for April dropped to 49.4%, marking a significant decline of 10.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating potential negative impacts from tariff adjustments on the domestic economy [2][6][12] Group 2 - The report identifies a rotation in market performance, where sectors further from the "exit" point, such as technology and small-cap stocks, are experiencing larger gains compared to those closer to recovery [1][32][40] - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" focusing on high-dividend stocks and technology, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is viewed as a key growth area [2][60][66] - The report indicates that the technology sector's trading volume has decreased, currently accounting for 31.57% of total trading, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [61][62] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of U.S.-China tariff negotiations, noting that recent comments from U.S. officials suggest a potential easing of tensions, which could positively influence market sentiment [56][57][58] - The report highlights that the banking sector has shown strong performance, attributed to significant inflows into passive index funds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards stability [26][32][46] - The report mentions that the overall market is experiencing a phase of stabilization, with a notable correlation between trading volume and the performance of dividend assets, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook [12][23][24]