证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 】 2025 04 13 年 月 日 煤炭开采 3 重倒挂助煤价以时间换空间，"中特煤"以行动书写担当 行情回顾（2025.4.7~2025.4.11）： 基本面方面，我们持续强调"把握行业本质属性，坚定信心、坚守定力"。 "一利稳定增长，五率持续优化"，着力提高央企控股上市公司质量，强化投资者回 报。 中信煤炭指数 3,157.77 点，下跌 5.04%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.16pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 本周两大煤炭央企发声"积极支持控股上市公司高质量发展"。此外，多部委机构打 出稳市组合拳，场外增量资金充足，我们认为"财务报表优异，低资本开支&现金流 充裕，具备高分红、高股息的央企"尤为受益。 考虑到煤价属周期波动，煤炭企业或通过加大成本管控力度，保证企业效益稳步提 升。以神华、中煤两大央企为例，在 24 年煤价中枢明显下移的背景下，其业绩降幅 显著低于煤价降幅，降本增效成效显著，诚意满满。 加大回购注销、分红力度，推动资产注入，延伸产业链布局均是提高 ROE 的方向。 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -30% -2 ...

| 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 867 | 920 | 906 | 974 | 1,049 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 7.0 | 6.1 | -1.5 | 7.5 | 7.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 101 | 150 | 48 | 138 | 161 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -31.4 | 48.2 | -68.3 | 189.4 | 16.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.64 | 0.94 | 0.30 | 0.87 | 1.01 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 3.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | | P/E（倍） | 40.2 | 27.1 | 85.6 | 29.6 | 25.3 | | P/B（倍） | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 风险提示：新药研发不及预期风险、销售不及预期风险、产品集采降价风 险。 证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong expectation for domestic demand, suggesting that the food and beverage sector is showing resilience in its fundamentals [1]. - The white liquor segment is expected to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, drawing parallels to the 2018 US-China trade tensions, where the sector demonstrated strong defensive characteristics [2]. - The beer segment, particularly Yanjing Beer, is projected to continue its high growth momentum, with significant increases in revenue and profit expected in 2024 and 2025 [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections White Liquor - The white liquor sector is anticipated to achieve both performance and valuation recovery due to strong domestic demand and improved supply dynamics. The report cites that leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu are showing stable growth with significant revenue and profit increases projected for 2024 [2]. - Kweichow Moutai's total revenue and net profit for 2024 are expected to grow by 15.7% and 15.4% year-on-year, respectively, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% and a dividend yield of 3.4% [2]. Beer and Beverages - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a net profit increase of 63.74% [3]. - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of Yanjing U8, which achieved a sales volume of 696,000 kiloliters in 2024, marking a 31.4% increase year-on-year [3]. - The beverage sector is expected to maintain high growth rates, particularly with the upcoming IPO of IFBH, which has a leading market share in coconut water [7]. Consumer Goods - The report identifies several consumer goods companies, such as Three Squirrels and H&H International, that are expected to benefit from strong recovery and growth trajectories. H&H International reported a revenue increase of 10.4% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with significant growth in its infant formula segment [7]. - The report also notes the strategic acquisitions and expansions by companies like Three Squirrels, which are aimed at enhancing their market presence and adapting to changing consumer preferences [7].

一季度土地市场结构性特征凸显，新房成交仍处低位，等待地产政策进一 步加码。据中指数据，一季度 300 城宅地出让金同比增长 26.5%，平均溢 价率 13.6%。整体结构性特征凸显，杭州、上海、成都住宅用地平均溢价 率分别达 43.2%、29.0%、28.3%。地王项目频出，更多反应了主流房企 聚焦核心城市的拿地策略，以及开春部分房企集中补库的行为；300 城宅 地出让金虽同比增长，更多是在土地市场连续数年下探后基数较低、核心 城市结构性助推的结果，房企拿地策略整体仍偏谨慎。尽管二手房"金三" 交易量表现突出，但新房交易量仍然处在低位，库存处在相对高位，房企 现金流改善缓慢，一二线城市房价的企稳仍依赖政策面推动的市场供需格 局进一步优化。中美关税战白热化，内需的重要性进一步提升，而地产是 其中关键一环。政策方面早到晚到都会到，外部环境压力可能倒逼政策面 加速推进。 地产还能有什么政策？除了宏观层面讨论较多的降准、降息、财政政策加 码以外，地产自身的政策包括：一线城市进一步放开，交易税费下降，收 储收地等去库存政策加钱加码，城中村改造（类拆迁政策）加钱加码等。 短线关注 4 月政治局会议动向和中美贸易战对出口的 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 13 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：服饰制造公司 3 月营收公布，提醒关注后续关税政策变化 【本周专题】服饰制造公司 3 月营收公布，提醒关注后续关税政策变化 近期部分服饰制造公司公布 2025 年 3 月营收表现。1）单月来看，2025 年 3 月 丰泰企业/裕元集团（制造业务）/儒鸿收入同比分别-1.5%/+3.5%/+20.9% （2025Q1 合计分别同比+0.5%/+5.9%/+22.8%）。2）根据业务情况判断，我们 估计 2025Q1 华利集团收入有望同比增长 10%~15%/健盛集团收入估计同比平稳 为主/新澳股份收入预计同比稳健增长/伟星股份接单稳健增长。 行业层面：越南服饰出口同比稳健增长，中国相关产品出口表现则相对较弱。1） 中国：2025 年 1~2 月服装及衣着附件出口金额为 216.6 亿美元，同比-7.4%（2024 年累计为同比持平左右）；2025 年 1~2 月纺织纱线织物及其制品出口金额为 212.2 亿美元，同比-2.3%。2）越南：2025 年 1~3 月纺织品出口金额 86.94 亿美元， 同比+1 ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 13 年 月 日 康辰药业（603590.SH） "苏灵""密盖息"打造双增长极，创新药产品未来可期 医保解限与手术量恢复，苏灵销量有望触底反弹。苏灵是目前国内血凝酶 制剂市场唯一国家一类创新药。2020 年-2021 年受外部环境影响手术量减 少与国谈新价影响，销量有一定下滑。随着外部环境影响衰退，院内手术 量有序恢复，同时，2023 年，苏灵凭借国家一类新药的优势和创新药政策 的红利，顺利通过医保谈判续约，并解除原医保支付范围中"限出血性疾 病治疗的二线用药，预防使用不予支付"限制，临床价值进一步显现。目 前苏灵逐渐放量，未来可期。 密盖息增长稳健，打造公司第二增长曲线。2021-2023 年密盖息业绩稳定 增长，中国泰凌医药集团有限公司和 NTPharmaPacificCompanyLtd(HK)完 成密盖息业绩承诺。随着中国老龄化的加剧，银发经济逐渐兴起，密盖息 作为治疗原发性骨质疏松及急性骨丢失性骨痛的一线治疗药物，也是预防 急性骨丢失的唯一用药，市场还有部分提升空间。 创新药管线多方向布局，打造长期发展竞争力。通过"苏灵"的 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their strong financial performance and potential for high dividends [8][10]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but companies are focusing on cost control and operational efficiency to maintain profitability. Major state-owned enterprises like Shenhua and China Coal have shown a significant reduction in performance decline compared to coal price drops, indicating effective cost management [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining investor confidence through high-quality development and asset integration within state-owned enterprises [2][3]. - The current coal prices are seen as bottoming out, with expectations of benefiting from domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and increasing domestic demand [2][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 5.04% during the week of April 7-11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.16 percentage points [1][75]. - The report notes that the coal market is currently in a phase of narrow fluctuations, with supply stability and limited demand growth impacting price movements [11][33]. Key Company Analysis - China Shenhua's coal production cost for 2024 is reported at 179 RMB/ton, remaining stable year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost is 282 RMB/ton, down 25 RMB/ton from the previous year [6][8]. - Both companies are expected to increase share buybacks and dividends, enhancing shareholder returns [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal market is characterized by a seasonal downturn, with limited demand from power plants and a shift towards cleaner energy sources impacting coal consumption [11][33]. - The report highlights that the focus on cost control and operational efficiency is crucial for maintaining profitability amid fluctuating coal prices [3][8]. Price Trends - As of April 11, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 676 RMB/ton, showing stability week-on-week [11][33]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, but significant price drops are not expected in the short term [11][33].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 13 年 月 日 电力 电力板块攻守兼备，南网 136 号文承接方案发布 本周行情回顾：本周（4.7-4.11）上证指数报收 3238.23 点，下跌 3.11%，沪深 300 指数报收 3750.52 点，下跌 2.87%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2805.13 点，下跌 2.51%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.36pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜 第 8 位。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：建议重视电力板块配置机会，本周煤价快速下跌至 676 元/吨附近， 成本超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标的： 华电国际、皖能电力、浙能电力、华能国际、建投能源；以及火电改造设备龙头： 青达环保。推荐布局低估绿电板块，推荐优先关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商， 建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、龙源电力（H）、中闽能源、福能股份。把握水核 防御，水电板块，建议关注长江电力、国投电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块， 建议关注中国核电和中国广核。 风险提示：原料价格超预期上涨；项目建设进度不及预期；电力辅助服务市场、绿 证 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 13 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：服饰制造公司 3 月营收公布，提醒关注后续关税政策变化 【本周专题】服饰制造公司 3 月营收公布，提醒关注后续关税政策变化 近期部分服饰制造公司公布 2025 年 3 月营收表现。1）单月来看，2025 年 3 月 丰泰企业/裕元集团（制造业务）/儒鸿收入同比分别-1.5%/+3.5%/+20.9% （2025Q1 合计分别同比+0.5%/+5.9%/+22.8%）。2）根据业务情况判断，我们 估计 2025Q1 华利集团收入有望同比增长 10%~15%/健盛集团收入估计同比平稳 为主/新澳股份收入预计同比稳健增长/伟星股份接单稳健增长。 行业层面：越南服饰出口同比稳健增长，中国相关产品出口表现则相对较弱。1） 中国：2025 年 1~2 月服装及衣着附件出口金额为 216.6 亿美元，同比-7.4%（2024 年累计为同比持平左右）；2025 年 1~2 月纺织纱线织物及其制品出口金额为 212.2 亿美元，同比-2.3%。2）越南：2025 年 1~3 月纺织品出口金额 86.94 亿美元， 同比+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong expectation for domestic demand, suggesting that the food and beverage sector is showing resilience in its fundamentals [1][2]. - The white liquor segment is expected to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, drawing parallels to the 2018 US-China trade tensions, where the sector demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics [2]. - The beverage sector, particularly Yanjing Beer, is projected to continue its high growth momentum, with significant increases in revenue and profit expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The white liquor sector is anticipated to achieve both performance and valuation recovery due to strong domestic demand and improved supply dynamics. Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to report solid earnings growth, with Moutai's 2024 total revenue and net profit projected to increase by 15.7% and 15.4% respectively [2]. - Gujing Gongjiu's 2024 revenue and net profit are expected to grow by 16.4% and 20.2% respectively, indicating a robust outlook for leading brands in the sector [2]. Beer and Beverage - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with net profit soaring by 63.74% to 1.056 billion yuan [3]. - The U8 product line from Yanjing Beer is expected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 30% in 2025, driven by internal reforms and product upgrades [3]. - The beverage sector is also seeing significant developments, with the coconut water brand IF planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong market positioning and growth potential [3][7]. Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes the resilience of consumer goods, with companies like Three Squirrels and H&H International showing promising growth trajectories. H&H's revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to increase by 10.4%, driven by strong performance in its infant formula segment [7]. - Three Squirrels is actively participating in channel transformation through strategic acquisitions, which may enhance its market presence and growth potential [7].