海外宏观 2025 年 4 月 14 日 海外宏观周报 美国关税戏剧性反复 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | | 范城恺 | 投资咨询资格编号 | S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 报 告 海外经济政策。自 4 月 2 日美国"对等关税"宣布以来，美国关税政策经历 了戏剧性反复。4 月 9 日，白宫宣布，对中国商品的关税提高至 125%，并 对中国外大部分贸易伙伴暂停实施"对等关税"90 天，改为统一征收 10% 的附加关税。美联储公布 3 月货币政策会议纪要，强调关税政策下经济的不 确定性，美联储采取谨慎立场。4 月 11 日，美联储柯林斯称美联储"绝对" 准备好帮助稳定市场，卡什卡利警告美债收益率上升、美元 ...

25年3月金融数据：总量超预期，结构优化 事项：2025年4月13日，央行发布25年3月金融数据，新增社融5.89万 亿，同比多增1.05万亿，好于wind市场预期的4.73万亿；信贷口径，新 增人民币贷款3.64万亿，同比多增5500亿元，较市场预期高7150亿 元。 1 社融多增主要是政府债和信贷贡献，信用债明显少增 3月社融同比多增1.05万亿，体现了财政靠前发力的效果，3月政府债同 比多增1.02万亿；社融口径信贷同比多增5358亿元，政府债置换对信贷 的影响趋于尾声，二者基本是主要同比多增项目。而受融资成本上升影 响，企业信用债3月整体维持净偿还状态，同比少增5142亿元；外币贷 款受关税背景下人民币贬值预期影响，同比少增837亿元；非标融资同 比微幅少增63亿元。 2 信贷的主要拉动项是企业短贷，其次是票据和居民中长贷 3月6M国股转贴现利率上行21BP，好于24年同期的下行30BP，3月信 贷新增3.09万亿，同比多增且好于预期。结构上企业好于居民，居民中 长贷更好，企业短贷更好： 2025年4月14日 （1）居民端，居民短贷同比微幅少增，而居民中长贷受益于地产销售 改善同比多增。3月30城地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The sustainability of China's pension insurance system faces significant challenges as the country accelerates into a deeply aging society. The report analyzes reform experiences from countries like the UK, Germany, Canada, and Chile to provide references for China's pension system reform [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. UK: Bottom-Line Pension as the Optimal Solution to Eliminate Elderly Poverty - The UK has long aimed to eliminate elderly poverty through its pension insurance system, which has undergone significant reforms over time [9]. - The UK's modern pension system has evolved through various phases, including the establishment of a welfare state, expansion during adjustment periods, and integration into a unified system [1.1][1.2][1.3]. 2. Germany and Canada: Ensuring the Sustainability of Pension Systems - Germany introduced a sustainability factor in its pension reform to effectively reduce expenditure pressure on the pension system [2.1]. - Canada innovatively raised contribution rates based on age while corresponding adjustments to benefit levels, alleviating pension income pressure without exacerbating intergenerational conflicts [2.2]. 3. Chile: Is a Fully Accumulated System the Direction for Reform? - Chile's fully accumulated social security system faces challenges, particularly in terms of coverage and the loss of social security functions, leading to low replacement rates and increased wealth disparity [3.1][3.2]. 4. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that China can learn from the UK's automatic enrollment mechanism to establish a mandatory second pillar supplementary pension insurance, clarifying the basic pension's bottom-line role [4]. - It also recommends that China consider introducing effective sustainability factors in benefit adjustments and potentially raising contribution rates in line with Canada's experience to ease intergenerational transfer tensions [3][4].

大金重工(002487.SZ) 管桩出口盈利水平突出，即将步入交付大年 推荐（维持） 股价：22.76 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 电力设备及新能源 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.dajin.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 阜新金胤能源咨询有限公司/38.93% | | 实际控制人 | 金鑫 | | 总股本(百万股) | 638 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 631 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 145 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 144 | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.40 | | 资产负债率(%) | 37.1 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 皮秀 投资咨询资格编号 S1060517070004 PIXIU809@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司发布 2024 年报，实现营收 37.8 亿元，同比减少 12.61%，归母净利润 4.74 亿元，同比增长 11.46%，扣非后净利润 4.33 亿元，同比增长 17.7%；EPS 0.74 元，拟每 10 股派发现金红利 0.80 元（含税）。2024 年四季度，公司实现 ...

计算机 2025年04月14日 彩讯股份(300634.SZ) 公司扣非归母净利润表现较好，三大产品线稳步增长 推荐 ( 维持) 公 司 报 告 股价:22.86元 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 闫磊 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060517070006 | | | YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn | | 黄韦涵 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523070003 | HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司公告2024年年报。2024年，公司实现营业收入16.52亿元，同比增长 10.41%；实现归母净利润2.30亿元，同比下降29.11%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.18亿元，同比增长16.81%。公司公告利润分配预案：以448,252,960股为基 数，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1.25元（含税），不送红股，不以资本公 积金转增股本。 平安观点： 报 点 评 证 券 研究助理 王佳一 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060123070023 WANGJIAYI446@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | ...

公 司 报 告 2025年04月14日 萤石网络(688475.SH) 公司营收实现平稳增长，智能家居产品线持续完善 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:36.4元 行情走势图 证券分析师 事项： 计算机 公司公告2024年年报和2025年一季报。2024年，公司实现营业收入54.42亿 元，同比增长12.41%；实现归母净利润5.04亿元，同比下降10.52%。2025年 一季度，公司实现营业收入13.80亿元，同比增长11.59%；实现归母净利润 1.38亿元，同比增长10.42%。公司发布利润分配预案：拟向全体股东每股派 发现金红利0.35元（含税），派发现金红利275,625,000.00元（含税），占公 司2024年合并报表归属于上市公司股东净利润的54.70%。 平安观点： 公 司 年 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 研究助理 | 王佳一 | 一般证券从业资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060123070023 | | | WANGJIAYI446@pingan.com.cn | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | ...

公 司 报 告 计算机 2025年04月14日 国能日新(301162.SZ) 公司业绩实现稳健增长，功率预测业务根基持续稳固 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:56.27元 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 闫磊 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060517070006 | | | YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn | 研究助理 王佳一 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060123070023 WANGJIAYI446@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 456 | 550 | 720 | 949 | 1,261 | | YOY(%) | 26.9 | 20.5 | 31.0 | 31.8 | 32.9 | | 净利润(百万元) | 84 | 94 | 122 | 159 | 210 | | YOY(%) | 25.6 | 11.1 | 30.0 | 31.1 | 31.8 | | 毛利率(%) | ...

前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 4 月 14 日 养老金融双周报（2025.04.07-2025.04.13） 关税冲击导致美国公共养老金大规模浮亏 证券分析师 | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060516070001 | | | chenxiao397@pingan.com.cn | | 郝博韬 | 投资咨询资格编号 | S1060521110001 haobotao973@pingan.com.cn 石艺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070003 SHIYI262@pingan.com.cn 1）宏观经济超预期下行；2）资本市场波动；3）政策超预期改变，老龄事 业支持力度不足；4）地缘政治形势恶化。 行 业 报 告 平安观点： 本期重点：美国 25 大公共养老金浮亏1700 亿美元 第一，关税冲击美股市场，美国 25 大公共养老金浮亏约 1700 亿美元。 Equable Institute 发布报告，对特朗普关税政策落地后，美国公共养老金受 到的影响进行了测算。报告中，Equable Institute 将美国的公共养老金的主 要投资分为三大类资产进行讨论 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing evolution of global trade frictions necessitates a focus on investment opportunities within the domestic innovation industry, particularly in the context of rising tariffs and the potential for increased market share of domestic technology products [3][5]. - The introduction of Google's Agent2Agent Protocol aims to standardize interactions between AI agents, which could enhance interoperability and resource sharing across various platforms, thereby fostering ecosystem development [9][11]. - The computer industry is anticipated to experience dual improvements in performance and valuation due to accelerating demand recovery, with specific recommendations for investment in various sectors including domestic innovation, Huawei's supply chain, AI, low-altitude economy, and financial IT [20]. Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - The U.S. government has increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, while certain tech products have been exempted from these tariffs, indicating a complex trade environment that may benefit domestic technology sectors [6][7]. - The domestic innovation industry is expected to develop rapidly, with a projected market size exceeding 400 billion yuan for PC and server markets from 2024 to 2028, driven by the increasing acceptance of domestic hardware and software products [8]. Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 5.79% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 2.87%. The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry stands at 50.8 times [14][17]. - Among 360 A-share stocks in the computer sector, 32 saw price increases, while 327 experienced declines, reflecting a challenging market environment [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends focusing on the domestic innovation sector, with specific companies highlighted for investment, including Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, and others. Additionally, sectors such as Huawei's supply chain and AI are also recommended for investment [20].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [36] Core Insights - The global terminal market shipment growth is expected to slow down due to the new round of US tariff policies, with AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks projected to have year-on-year growth rates of 24.5%, 5.4%, 0%, and 3% respectively under the base case scenario for 2025 [3][6] - China's total investment in artificial intelligence is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2028, with generative AI investment growing from 18.9% of total AI investment in 2024 to 30.6% in 2028, amounting to over $30 billion [10][11] - The global semiconductor equipment market revenue is projected to reach $117.14 billion in 2024, a 10% increase from 2023, with China being the largest market [15][17] - The global personal computer shipment volume increased by 9.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 62.7 million units, driven by OEMs accelerating shipments before the tariff implementation [19][20] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - The semiconductor industry index rose by 0.56% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.43 percentage points; since the beginning of 2024, the semiconductor industry index has increased by 29.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 20.22 percentage points [26][24] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is currently in a recovery phase, with a rebound in consumer electronics. The report suggests focusing on domestic substitution and AI industry chain opportunities, recommending companies such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and Dinglong Co., while also paying attention to AI + semiconductor investment opportunities [31][31]