重整旗鼓展新颜，AI 课程具巧思 [Table_BaseData] 公司主要数据 [Table_CoverStock] —豆神教育(300010)公司首次覆盖报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 14 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 范欣悦 教育人服行业首席分析师 S1500521080001 fanxinyue@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司首次覆盖报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 豆神教育(300010) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 无 | 收盘价（元） | 7.38 | | --- | --- | | 52 周内股价波动区间 | 12.96-2.38 | | (元) | | | 最近一月涨跌幅(％) | 4.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.67 | | 流通 A 股比例(％) | 80.49 | | 总市值(亿元) | 152.52 | | 资料来源：聚源，信达证券研发中心 | | 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲12 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental engineering and services sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The environmental industry is gradually returning to rationality after experiencing a decline in national subsidies, PPP projects, and mixed ownership reforms. Companies are focusing on core business development while exploring new growth areas such as renewable energy and AI+environmental solutions [24] - In 2024, the environmental sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 395.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 26.289 billion, a decrease of 10.7%. However, in Q1 2025, the sector's revenue increased by 1.5% year-on-year to CNY 87.873 billion, and net profit rose by 1.3% to CNY 8.723 billion, indicating a steady improvement in performance [24] Summary by Relevant Sections Water Sector - In 2024, the water sector generated revenue of CNY 75.376 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 24.1% to CNY 11.822 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue remained flat at CNY 16.785 billion, with net profit growing by 7.6% to CNY 2.663 billion. Recent policy changes are expected to catalyze market-oriented water price reforms, benefiting efficient water companies [3][35] Solid Waste Sector - The solid waste treatment sector achieved revenue of CNY 174.722 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with net profit rising by 10.2% to CNY 14.248 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 8.6% to CNY 41.34 billion, and net profit increased by 7.9% to CNY 4.3 billion. The new paradigm of waste incineration combined with data centers is expected to enhance profitability and cash flow [4][30] Environmental Monitoring/Testing Sector - The environmental monitoring/testing sector reported revenue of CNY 11.146 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with net profit rising significantly by 46.2% to CNY 0.733 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by 6.3% to CNY 1.788 billion, while net profit remained stable with a slight increase of 0.4% [4] Environmental Equipment Sector - The environmental equipment sector generated revenue of CNY 61.497 billion in 2024, a decrease of 10.27%, with net profit falling by 33% to CNY 2.873 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by 6.42% to CNY 13.822 billion, and net profit decreased by 4.6% to CNY 0.986 billion. The demand for energy-saving equipment is expected to rise as the government promotes energy efficiency [5][6] Investment Recommendations - Three main investment lines are highlighted: 1. Water and waste incineration operations, which are expected to benefit from market reforms and stable cash flows. Recommended companies include Xirong Environment and Hongcheng Environment. 2. Environmental equipment, which is anticipated to see increased demand due to ongoing energy-saving initiatives. Suggested companies include Zhongtai Co. and Ice Wheel Environment. 3. Circular economy initiatives, with significant growth potential as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for circular economy development. Recommended companies include Inke Recycling and High Energy Environment [6][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the company's confidence in its IDE business through a stock incentive plan, granting 4 million restricted shares, representing 3.30% of the total share capital [1] - High performance targets for the IDE business from 2025 to 2027 indicate the company's long-term confidence in this sector, with revenue targets set at no less than 1.45/2.8/5 billion yuan and profit targets at no less than 0.65/1.4/3 billion yuan [2] - The company has completed the acquisition of the remaining 48% stake in Aipuyang and launched the low-code IDE product SnapDevelop, which has over 5,000 stable trial users [2] - The collaboration with DCloud, a leading domestic front-end developer platform, is expected to enhance product promotion, given DCloud's user base of over 9 million front-end developers [2] - The dual focus on "AI+IDE" is anticipated to open long-term growth opportunities, with plans to support new programming languages and develop a fully AI-driven software development platform [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 320 million yuan in 2023 to 783 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.6% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 56 million yuan in 2023 to 305 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 46.2% in 2023 to 55.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.46 yuan in 2023 to 2.51 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 101.32 to 18.68 [3] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong product advantages and extensive collaboration with DCloud for large-scale promotion [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the company's confidence in its IDE business through a stock incentive plan, granting 4 million restricted shares, representing 3.30% of the total share capital [1] - High performance targets for the IDE business from 2025 to 2027 indicate the company's long-term confidence in this sector, with revenue targets set at no less than 1.45/2.8/5 billion yuan and profit targets at no less than 0.65/1.4/3 billion yuan [2] - The company has completed the acquisition of the remaining 48% stake in Aipuyang and launched the low-code IDE product SnapDevelop, which has over 5,000 stable trial users [2] - The "AI+IDE" dual layout is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities, with plans to support new programming languages and develop a fully AI-driven software development platform [2] - The company is projected to have significant revenue growth, with estimated EPS of 0.56/1.16/2.51 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 83.50/40.35/18.68 [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 320 million yuan in 2023 to 783 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 42.6% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 56 million yuan in 2023 to 305 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate of 116.0% in 2027 [3] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 46.2% in 2023 to 55.1% in 2027 [3] - Return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 5.4% in 2023 to 25.7% in 2027 [3] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong upward trend in profitability and efficiency over the forecast period [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent increase in the closed-end wealth management product achievement rate, which reached 83.17% by the end of April 2025, while the open-end product achievement rate decreased to 54.80% [15][16] - The overall market's wealth management product net loss rate was recorded at 2.23%, showing a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous month [12] - The number of net value-type wealth management products has decreased to 18,600, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.85% [22] - The issuance of wealth management products in April 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 44.83%, totaling 5,990 products [39][42] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Market Overview - The broken net rate as of the end of April was 2.23%, indicating a stable trend after a peak in December 2022 [12] - The achievement rate for closed-end products increased to 83.17%, while open-end products saw a decline to 54.80% [15][16] 2. Net Value-Type Wealth Management Products - The total number of net value-type products decreased to 18,600, down 1.85% from the previous month [22] - The proportion of net value-type products with a risk level of R2 is the highest at 77.58% [25] 3. Issuance Market Situation - The issuance of wealth management products in April 2025 increased significantly, with 5,990 products issued, marking a 44.83% year-on-year growth [39] - Non-principal guaranteed products have surged, while principal guaranteed products have nearly disappeared from the market [42] - The largest share of newly issued products in April was for the 12-24 month term, accounting for 25.03% of total issuances [45] 4. Wealth Management Returns - As of April 6, 2025, the expected annualized returns for various term wealth management products were 2.36% for 3 months, 2.54% for 6 months, and 2.50% for 1 year [4] 5. Wealth Management Company Products - In April 2025, 32 wealth management companies issued a total of 5,077 products, with a slight increase from the previous month [5] - The leading company in terms of the number of existing products is Xingyin Wealth Management, holding a market share of 9.59% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States is expected to positively impact the company's North American business, with ongoing measures to build overseas capacity and increase terminal prices [1][2] - The company has a significant exposure to the U.S. market, with an estimated risk exposure of approximately $1 billion, and is actively working on capacity transfer and global layout to mitigate tariff impacts [3] - The company is recognized as a leading exporter of tools from China, focusing on product innovation and global operations, which positions it well for long-term market share growth [4] Summary by Sections Trade Relations and Tariff Changes - The recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a substantial reduction of tariffs from 125% to 34%, with a temporary pause on some tariffs, which is expected to benefit the company's tool segment [2] - The effective tax rate for exports to the U.S. has decreased significantly, allowing for potential price adjustments in the North American market [2] Capacity Expansion and Pricing Strategy - The company has accelerated the establishment of overseas production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia, to counteract tariff pressures, with 23 production bases globally as of 2024 [3] - The company has begun to implement price increases to pass on tariff costs to downstream customers, starting in Q2 2025 [3] Market Position and Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11.91x, indicating strong growth potential [4][6] - The global market share for hand tools is expected to reach 6.1% in 2024, with a long-term outlook for further increases as global supply chains are restructured [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States is expected to positively impact the company's North American business, with ongoing measures to build overseas capacity and increase terminal prices [1][2] - The company has a significant exposure to the U.S. market, with an estimated risk exposure of approximately $1 billion, and is actively working on capacity transfer and global layout to mitigate tariff impacts [3] - The company is recognized as a leading exporter of tools from China, focusing on product innovation and global operations, which positions it well for long-term market share growth [4] Summary by Sections Trade Relations and Tariff Changes - The recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a substantial reduction in tariff levels from 125% to 34%, with a temporary pause on some tariffs [2] - The effective tax rate for tool exports from China to the U.S. has decreased to approximately 55% during the 90-day grace period [2] Capacity Expansion and Pricing Strategy - The company has accelerated the establishment of overseas production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia, to counter tariff impacts, with 23 production bases globally by 2024 [3] - The company has begun to increase terminal prices to pass on tariff pressures, starting in Q2 2025 [3] Market Position and Financial Projections - The company aims to enhance its market share in the global tool market, with projected global market shares of 6.1% for hand tools and 2.1% for tools overall by 2024 [4] - Financial forecasts indicate a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 11.9X [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent increase in the closed-end wealth management product achievement rate, which reached 83.17% by the end of April 2025, while the open-end product achievement rate decreased to 54.80% [15][16] - The overall market's wealth management product net loss rate was recorded at 2.23%, showing a decrease of 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous month [12] - The number of existing net value-type wealth management products decreased to 18,600, a decline of 1.85% month-on-month [22] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Overview - As of the end of April 2025, the broken net rate was 2.23%, down from a peak of 20.60% in December 2022 [12] - The achievement rate for closed-end products increased to 83.17%, while open-end products saw a decrease to 54.80% [15][16] Net Value-Type Wealth Management Products - The total number of existing net value-type products was 18,600, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.85% [22] - The proportion of net value-type products with a negative net value growth was 2.95% as of the end of April [31] Issuance Market Situation - In April 2025, the total number of newly issued wealth management products was 5,990, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 44.83% [39] - Non-principal guaranteed products have seen a significant rise, with principal guaranteed products effectively reaching zero [42] - The largest proportion of newly issued products in April was for the 12-24 month term, accounting for 25.03% of the total [45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national banks with solid fundamentals and low valuations, particularly those benefiting from the state-owned enterprise reform context, such as Postal Savings Bank, Agricultural Bank, and CITIC Bank [7] - It also highlights regional banks with sustained performance in wealth management, such as Qilu Bank and Ningbo Bank, as potential investment opportunities [7]

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The US and China have significantly reduced extreme tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24%, while retaining a 10% base tariff[1] - The 10% tariff may serve as the lower limit for US tariffs on China, with potential adjustments ranging from 10% to 30%[1] - The suspension of the 24% tariffs is temporary, with a possibility of reactivation after 90 days[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate risks for Chinese exports to the US, thereby stabilizing the economic outlook[1] - The trade negotiations are anticipated to positively impact A-shares and the overall market, with short-term boosts expected[1] - Long-term economic recovery may be accelerated by domestic monetary policies, benefiting export-oriented companies[1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a weaker-than-expected US job market are potential risk factors[1] - The ongoing US debt ceiling issue complicates fiscal stability, making tariff revenue more critical than extreme tariffs[1] - The political pressure from midterm elections may influence further tariff adjustments by the Trump administration[1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in May is expected to move forward amidst fluctuations. The benchmark expectation is that the central bank will continue to guide the capital interest rate closer to the policy rate after the interest rate cut. The subsequent trend of monetary policy may depend on the fundamental state, and there is a possibility of further policy rate cuts if there are no fiscal incremental measures in the short term. The bond market environment is more favorable compared to the beginning of April [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The capital interest rate center is expected to continue to move closer to the policy rate after the interest rate cut - The conditions for "opportunistically cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate" have emerged, and the Politburo meeting in April mentioned "timely cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate." The central bank announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5% and a 10BP reduction in the policy rate to 1.4% on May 7, earlier than market expectations [6][7] - Market adjustments often occur after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, mainly due to the increase in capital interest rates after the interest rate cut or the strengthening of fiscal policies. The actual state of the capital side after the implementation of this reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut may be the key factor affecting the bond market performance in May [8] - Before the implementation of this reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut, the capital interest rate had been above the policy rate since January. Although it began to gradually return to the policy rate in March, the average DR007 in April was still more than 20BP above the OMO rate. The central bank's interest rate cut may be to support the real economy and boost market confidence, and the capital interest rate is expected to follow the policy rate down [11][12] - After the interest rate cut, the capital interest rate has declined, but the increase in bank net financing is relatively moderate, and the capital gap index is at a neutral and low level. The central bank is expected to continue to guide the capital interest rate to the 1.5%-1.6% range, but further observation of the central bank's operations is needed [13] 2. The monetary policy implementation report is more of a summary of the Q1 state, and the overall trend of monetary policy is still in the process of easing - The Q1 monetary policy implementation report did not mention the May reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut and had little mention of the impact of US tariffs on monetary policy. It is considered more of a summary of the previous quarter's monetary policy state [18][19] - Some information in the report may explain why the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts did not occur in the first quarter, such as the need to strengthen bond market construction and macro - prudential management, and the fact that the relationship between money and prices is affected by multiple factors. The central bank's cautious attitude towards monetary easing and its expectation of fiscal expansion are not the core factors determining short - term monetary policy operations [20][22] - After the tightening of the capital side in Q1, the weighted average interest rates of new loans and personal housing loans increased slightly, which deviated from the goal of reducing the comprehensive financing cost of society. In the context of escalating trade frictions, the domestic economy faces greater uncertainty, which may be the main reason for the May reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The subsequent trend of monetary policy needs to observe the fundamental state [22][25] 3. The increased demand for Chinese intermediate goods due to other economies' rush to export to the US, and the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market - Although the impact of trade frictions on exports is not significant in April, with exports reaching 8.1% year - on - year, it is mainly due to the spill - over effect of other economies' rush to export to the US. The current situation is different from that in 2020 when US fiscal expansion drove up demand [26][28] - The US economic prosperity has declined, and after the short - term rush to import and inventory build - up, if consumption does not continue to rise, its commodity demand may face downward pressure. The export growth of Vietnam, China Taiwan and other economies may decline, which may reduce their driving effect on China's exports [28][34] - The recent Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, but the tariff rate is still higher than before April, and there is a possibility of further increases. The domestic economy has shown signs of weakening since April, and the central bank's motivation to restrict the decline of long - term interest rates through liquidity tightening has weakened, which is more favorable for the bond market compared to the beginning of April [40][48] 4. The flattening of the interest rate curve reflects the change in the macro - model, and the bond market in May moves forward amidst fluctuations - Although the bond market environment is relatively favorable, the tariff agreement may cause emotional fluctuations. The current interest rate curve is relatively flat, and the market is worried about the fragility of the bond market. However, the continuous flattening of the interest rate curve since 2024 is essentially a change in the market's pricing method for the economy and policy model [50] - Historically, the change in the domestic yield curve was often dominated by short - term interest rates. After 2011, the domestic economy was mainly regulated by real estate and urban investment policies, and monetary policy was used to cooperate with these policies. In the upward real estate cycle, long - term interest rates were generally priced with a premium over short - term interest rates, and the narrowing of the spread usually occurred in the monetary tightening cycle [52][57] - Since 2021, the real estate policy has been continuously relaxed, but real estate sales have continued to decline, indicating a fundamental change in the economic model. The central bank has taken measures to lower the broad - spectrum interest rate since 2022, but the policy rate cut has been relatively lagging, which has increased the pressure on bank spreads. In the context of weak economic expectations, the domestic bond market has shown a state where the yield curve continues to flatten [58][64] - The domestic central bank has no clear guidance on future policy rates, so the domestic interest rate curve above 1 year is unlikely to invert, and the 1Y certificate of deposit rate and 10 - year treasury bond rate may be difficult to fall below the OMO rate. However, if the macro - expectation remains weak, the spreads between these interest rate combinations may continue to compress [64]