Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the non-ferrous metal market under strong policy expectations, highlighting the recent focus on "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" by the government [2][3] - The report notes that copper and aluminum prices have stabilized and rebounded, driven by macroeconomic catalysts and changes in market sentiment [2][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with domestic inventory showing fluctuations; the current price is around 79,040 CNY/ton [2][14] - Aluminum prices experienced a decline followed by a rebound, with the current price at 20,770 CNY/ton; supply and demand dynamics are being closely monitored [2][21] - Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold averaging 774.23 CNY/gram and silver at 9,107 CNY/kilogram, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [3][28] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 179,500 CNY/ton; the market is cautious due to weak demand [4][59] - The rare earth market is showing signs of recovery, with prices for light rare earth oxides increasing by 4.8% to 478,000 CNY/ton [5] Market Predictions - The report predicts that copper prices will fluctuate between 95,00-96,50 USD/ton and aluminum prices between 20,300-21,000 CNY/ton in the coming week [15][23] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao for potential investment opportunities [17][24]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction index rose by 0.32% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 0.75 percentage points. Professional engineering, architectural design, and infrastructure sectors showed stronger gains [1][33] - Infrastructure investment continued to support the economy, with energy-related and water conservancy investments maintaining strength, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. For the first half of 2025, real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing grew by -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][13] - Recent disclosures of second-quarter orders from central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) indicate a recovery trend, with China Railway's second-quarter orders showing a year-on-year growth of 20.08%. The overall order situation for central SOEs is optimistic, suggesting a rebound in physical workload [2][27] Summary by Sections Macro and Micro Verification of Infrastructure Recovery - Infrastructure investment in June continued to provide support, with energy and water conservancy investments remaining strong, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. The year-on-year growth rates for real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June 2025 were -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5%, respectively [1][13][14] Recent Order Disclosures from Central SOEs - Central SOEs such as China Railway, China Energy Construction, China Chemical, and China Nuclear Engineering reported a recovery in second-quarter orders. For instance, China Railway's first-half orders showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, with a significant increase in the second quarter [2][27][28] Valuation Perspective - As of July 18, the construction sector's PE (TTM) and PB (LF) ratios were among the lowest across all primary industries, indicating significant room for valuation improvement. The construction sector's PE (TTM) was 11.12 times, with a historical percentile of 48.50%, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's PE of 13.39 times [3][30][32]

Domestic Economic Analysis - The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, exceeding expectations of 5.17% and previous value of 5.4%. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries showed growth rates of 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% respectively [1][9][10] - In June, industrial production increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.66% and previous value of 5.8%. However, social consumption and investment showed declines [11][14] - Exports in June grew by 5.9% year-on-year, higher than the previous 4.7% and expectations of 3.21%. Imports also increased by 1.1%, reversing a previous decline [43][44] - The social financing scale increased by 4.20 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. New RMB loans turned positive, indicating a recovery in credit conditions [55][56] International Economic Context - The core CPI growth in the US for June was lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to the expected 3.0% [2][66] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to impact global economic conditions, with potential implications for international trade and investment strategies [2][66][67] Industry Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks. The performance of undervalued dividends is closely tied to the progress in the AI sector [3][5] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with a potential recovery supported by declining interest rates and policy catalysts. The report warns against overly pessimistic views on consumer recovery [3][5]

行业报告 | 行业点评 计算机 证券研究报告 场景广度决定，稳定币未来谁将领跑 7 月 19 日，美国总统特朗普正式签署《GENIUS 法案》，为美国境内合法 使用稳定币建立监管框架。特朗普称其可能是「自互联网诞生以来最伟大 的金融科技革命」。稳定币行业催化不断，针对后市演绎，我们做出以下判 断。 1、发币方是稳定币产业链价值链核心，而场景是关键中的关键 参考美元稳定币发展，中国香港稳定币发币方利润有望快速体现并且具备可 观的空间。货币价值的网络效应决定，发币方需与场景运营方深度合作才 能跑出。比如 Circle 与 Coinbase 深度合作，进而跃居行业 TOP2。 2、支付场景中，小商品城、中油资本所在的相关场景进出口总额超万亿 不同于美元稳定币以 Defi 项目交易为主，港元稳定币侧重在跨境支付。根 据义乌海关，2024 年义乌进出口总额 6689 亿元，对"一带一路"国家合金 进出口 4133 亿元，占同期义乌进出口总值 61.8%。中国 24 年原油进口金额 约 2.31 万亿人民币，管道天然气进口金额 1501.77 亿人民币。基于此，我 们看好小商品城、中油资本的卡位优势。 3、交易所和跨境支 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with most companies facing a decline in earnings while a few high-quality firms are managing to improve their profitability [1][9] - The overall pre-loss range for 76 listed real estate companies is estimated to be between 35.05 billion and 47.84 billion yuan, with 61.8% of firms expected to report losses [1][9] - The report highlights a potential turning point in the industry, driven by policy support aimed at stabilizing the market and improving fundamentals [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Forecasts - As of July 18, 2025, 76 real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with 29 companies expecting profits and 47 anticipating losses [1][9] - Notable companies such as Poly Developments and China Overseas Development have reported significant profit declines exceeding 60% [1][9] - Some mid-sized firms like Deyue City and Chengjian Development have turned losses into profits, primarily due to high-margin project settlements [10][12] 2. Market Transaction Overview - New housing transactions for the week totaled 1.71 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.17% [2][17] - The second-hand housing market also saw a decrease, with transactions down 7.00% year-on-year [2][17] - The land market recorded a total transaction area of 1.373 million square meters, with a total transaction value of 20.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.68% [2][17] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading firms with product advantages [3][14] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [3][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the overseas market from July 14 - July 18, 2025, including market performance, policy news, and economic fundamentals. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased due to factors like better - than - expected economic data. Trump's policies have impacts on trade, stablecoin, and government spending. The overseas economy shows mixed trends in different aspects such as overall sentiment, employment, demand, and production [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Market**: US stocks' three major indices showed different trends, with the Nasdaq performing well. Factors influencing US stocks include decreased interest - rate cut expectations, the signing of the stablecoin bill, and the approval of H20 chip sales to China. As of July 18, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.59% and 1.51% respectively, while the Dow fell 0.07%. Some international indices also had gains [10]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar continued to rebound. Retail sales being better than expected, initial jobless claims lower than expected, and the June CPI showing tariff impacts led to a decrease in interest - rate cut expectations. As of July 18, the US dollar index rose 0.60%, and the euro, yen, and RMB depreciated against the US dollar [10]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. After the release of CPI, retail sales, and jobless claims data, Treasury yields rose, but fell on Friday due to Fed Governor Waller's dovish remarks. As of July 18, the 2Y Treasury yield fell 2bp, and the 10Y rose 1bp [11]. - **Commodities**: Crude oil, gold, and silver prices declined. Market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, and Trump's sanctions on Russia did not include new energy - export restrictions. As of July 18, COMEX gold and silver fell 0.31% and 1.75% respectively, and WTI crude oil fell 2.11% [11]. 3.2 Overseas Policy and News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed officials had different stances. Waller continued to be dovish, while Collins and Bostic were hawkish. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts cooled. As of July 19, the probability of a rate cut by September was 52.9% (down from 60.3% a week ago), and the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 was 1.82 (down from 2.01 a week ago) [2][29]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that manufacturing activity declined slightly, corporate recruitment was cautious, and the economic outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic [29]. 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade**: The US government approved the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, and Trump was optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with Beijing. Trump announced an agreement with Indonesia, aiming to reduce the trade deficit. He also mentioned the possibility of imposing tariffs "slightly above 10%" on smaller trading partners [35]. - **Stablecoin**: Trump signed the "Genius Act" to establish a regulatory framework for US stablecoins, marking the implementation of stablecoin regulatory legislation [38]. - **Government Lay - offs and Expenditure Cuts**: The US Supreme Court allowed large - scale lay - offs in the Department of Education. The government also cancelled federal aid for the California high - speed rail project and a Massachusetts highway project [38]. 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Sentiment - Bloomberg's median forecast showed that the probability of a US recession was 35% and that of the eurozone was 30%, both unchanged from a week ago. Polymarket's bet on a 2025 US recession decreased to 18% from 20% a week ago [43]. - The US and German weekly economic activity indices decreased. The New York Fed's Nowcast model raised Q2 and Q3 GDP growth expectations, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model lowered the Q2 expectation [44][48]. 3.3.2 Employment The number of initial jobless claims decreased for the fifth consecutive week. As of July 12, it was 22.1 million, lower than the expected 23.3 million [53]. 3.3.3 Demand - Retail sales were stable. The red - book commercial retail sales annual rate was 5.2% as of July 12. Airport security check - in numbers were higher than the previous year, and railway transportation volume rebounded [57]. - The real - estate market activity declined. The 30 - year mortgage fixed - rate rose, and mortgage application activities decreased [57]. 3.3.4 Production The US production side remained stable. As of July 12, the crude - steel capacity utilization rate was 78.7%, and the crude - steel output was 178.3 million short tons, both higher than the previous year. The refinery capacity utilization rate was 93.9% [63]. 3.3.5 Shipping International freight indicators showed mixed trends. The Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Capesize Freight Index rose, while the Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) and some China - related container freight indices fell [66]. 3.3.6 Price US retail gasoline prices fell. The 1 - year and 2 - year inflation swaps rose, indicating an increase in inflation expectations [70]. 3.3.7 Financial Conditions The US financial pressure slightly increased. The OFR US Financial Stress Index rose, the CCC high - yield bond credit spread was basically flat, and the SOFR - ON RRP spread widened [72]. 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week (July 21 - July 25, 2025), key events include the ECB's interest - rate meeting (market expects a pause in rate cuts), the preliminary PMI values of the eurozone and US manufacturing and service sectors, US durable goods orders, and US second - hand and new home sales [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has returned to the main theme of oscillation, with short - term performance relatively strong. The central bank's series of operations, including conducting large - scale outright reverse repurchases and considering canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases, aim to release liquidity and stabilize market expectations. Logically, short - term interest - rate bonds and high - liquidity credit products may benefit, but the long - term market may still be affected by various factors and maintain an oscillatory pattern [1][6][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Trends - From July 14 - 18, the bond market maintained an oscillatory pattern, with most interest - rate bond yields declining. The adjustment pressure was mainly concentrated on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, especially 30 - year treasury bonds. As of July 18, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 2.1BP, - 1.9BP, 0.0BP, + 1.4BP, - 0.7BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.35%, 1.38%, 1.67%, 1.89%, 1.95% [1][9]. - The bond market showed a "reverse V - shaped" trend due to the combination of multiple factors such as the central bank's operations, economic data releases, and the central bank's public consultation on canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases [9]. 3.2 Central Bank's New Movements - During the tax payment period this week, the central bank continuously maintained net reverse repurchase injections and conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan, releasing a signal of caring for the capital market. The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchases totaled 1.7268 trillion yuan, with 425.7 billion yuan due, achieving a net injection of 1.3011 trillion yuan. MLF due was 100 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase injection was 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan [9][17]. - As of July 18, R001 and R007 changed by + 8.4BP and - 0.1BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.49% and 1.51%; DR001 and DR007 increased by 11.4BP and 3.5BP respectively, reaching 1.46% and 1.51% [17]. - After the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points in May and carried out outright reverse repurchases in advance in June, it conducted another 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases in July, making outright operations gradually normalized, which shows the central bank's attitude of caring for liquidity and supporting broad credit and further stabilizes market expectations [2][19]. - The reasons for the central bank to conduct outright reverse repurchases are to hedge the capital gap and relieve the pressure on the bank's liability side to support the real - economy credit supply [19][21]. - Compared with pledged repurchases, outright reverse repurchases have longer terms, reduce the pressure of short - term tool roll - overs, weaken the dependence on the credit quality of bank collateral, lower the financing threshold for small and medium - sized banks, and improve the efficiency of liquidity release [3][23]. 3.3 Understanding the Central Bank's Cancellation of the Freeze of Collateral in Bond Repurchases - On July 18, the central bank publicly solicited opinions on the "Decision of the People's Bank of China on Amending Some Rules (Draft for Comment)", which included canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases, aiming to facilitate monetary policy operations such as open - market treasury bond trading and promote the high - level opening of the bond market [25]. - The reasons for the central bank to propose canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases are that the current pledged repurchase model in China leads to a large "precipitation" of high - grade bonds and low efficiency in collateral disposal when the financing party defaults, while international mature markets generally use outright repurchases where collateral can be circulated again. Also, canceling the freeze can unfreeze the 6 - trillion - yuan daily repurchase market and enhance the flexibility of domestic liquidity management [4][27]. - If the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases is canceled, the capital market is expected to see a pattern of "stable quantity and falling price". Short - term interest - rate bonds may benefit and have downward space, while long - term bonds may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen [5][32]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Points of Attention - Monday (July 21): China's 1Y and 5Y LPR quotes. - Tuesday (July 22): China's June bank foreign exchange settlement, US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. - Wednesday (July 23): US June M2 month - on - month, EU July Consumer Confidence Index. - Thursday (July 24): Eurozone July benchmark interest rate, Eurozone July overnight deposit rate. - Friday (July 25): China's July MLF injection, Eurozone June M2 year - on - year [37].

- The report identifies the market's uptrend by analyzing the distance between the 120-day and 20-day moving averages of the WIND All A index, which has expanded from 3.04% to 4.04%, indicating a continued uptrend[2][10][17] - The core observation variable for the market's uptrend is the "profitability effect," which is currently positive at 3.76%, suggesting that incremental funds are likely to continue entering the market[2][4][11] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption, with additional opportunities in the photovoltaic sector due to anti-involution benefits[3][4][11] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and AI applications[3][4][11] - The valuation indicators show that the WIND All A index's overall PE is at the 70th percentile, indicating a moderate level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][11] - Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, the report suggests an 80% position for absolute return products with the WIND All A index as the main stock allocation[3][11] Model Backtesting Results - The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the WIND All A index is 4.04%, indicating a continued uptrend[2][10][17] - The profitability effect value is 3.76%, which is significantly positive, suggesting that the market is likely to continue its uptrend despite short-term fluctuations[2][4][11]

Group 1: Davis Double Strategy - The Davis Double strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE increases [1][7] - Historical backtesting from 2010 to 2017 showed an annualized return of 26.45%, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08%, with consistent excess returns over 11% in each of the seven years [9][10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 23.31%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 16.78%, and has exceeded the benchmark by 3.65% since the last portfolio adjustment on May 6, 2025 [1][9] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises, and "discontinuity" indicates a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements [11][15] - Since 2010, this strategy has yielded an annualized return of 29.49%, with an annualized excess return of 27.47%, and a cumulative absolute return of 33.56% this year, outperforming the benchmark by 27.03% [2][15] - The strategy's performance this week showed a slight underperformance with an excess return of -0.65% [2][15] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences categorized as GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth-oriented, and value-oriented, focusing on stocks with low valuations and strong profitability [3][17] - Historical backtesting indicates stable excess returns, with the current year's portfolio outperforming the CSI 300 index by 16.17%, and showing a weekly excess return of 0.65% [3][17] - The portfolio's performance since July 18, 2025, has yielded an absolute return of 19.32%, with an excess return of 16.17% over the benchmark [3][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [6] Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of CNY 350 million to CNY 410 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 76%. The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains is expected to be between CNY 323 million and CNY 383 million, indicating a growth of 202% to 258% [1] - The growth in profitability is attributed to a full order book in both domestic and overseas markets, along with improved overall capacity utilization [1] - The company's color-spun yarn products are driving profitability, with sales expected to generate CNY 4.056 billion in revenue for 2024, accounting for 55% of total revenue, and a gross margin of 11.22% [2] - The company is focusing on innovation and sustainable production, launching new eco-friendly products to meet global demand [2] - The company's production capacity in Vietnam accounts for approximately 77% of total capacity, benefiting from lower labor costs and tax incentives, which enhances its international competitiveness [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are CNY 87.5 billion, CNY 97.2 billion, and CNY 107.6 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 5.5 billion, CNY 5.9 billion, and CNY 6.5 billion [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 0.37, CNY 0.39, and CNY 0.43 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [4] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is reported at CNY 6.914 billion, with a growth rate of -1.08%, and is expected to grow by 14.86% in 2024 [5] Market Position - The company operates in the textile and apparel manufacturing industry, with a strong focus on innovative and sustainable practices [6] - The current market capitalization is approximately CNY 7.753 billion, with a total share capital of 1,499.57 million shares [7]