家用电器 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 家用电器 电动自行车以旧换新成效显著，1-2 月扫地机数 据靓丽——25W11 周观点 行 投资要点： 电动自行车以旧换新成效显著，1-2 月扫地机数据靓丽 告 电动自行车以旧换新成效显著。根据中国经济网援引的商务部数 据，截至 3 月 11 日，今年全国电动自行车售旧、换新 166.4 万辆，超 过 2024 年总和（2024 年以旧换新从 9 月开始），相当于 2024 年工作 总量的 120.4%，累计补贴 10.0 亿元，人均约 600 元，拉动新车销售 45.1 亿元，惠及 4.7 万家销售门店。 国补无缝衔接带动扫地机品类延续亮眼表现。根据奥维云网，受 春节错期影响，1-2 月线上销售呈现前高后低趋势，从可比口径来看， 1-2 月扫地机线上销额 19.16 亿元，同比+72%，线上销量 58.75 万台， 同比+58%，均价为 3261 元，同比+9%。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+1.7%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别+2.2%/-0.6%/+2.3%/+3.1%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses continued optimism for the military industry, highlighting a 2.57% increase in the Shenwan Military Index (801740) compared to a 1.59% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an excess return of 0.98 percentage points [2][43]. - The 2025 government work report emphasizes "deep-sea technology" as a new emerging industry, which has positively impacted related stocks [3][43]. - The macro-level focus on completing the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate improvements in the industry's fundamentals [3][44]. - The report notes a slight decrease in financing buy-in amounts, but an increase in military ETF fund sizes and shares, indicating stable confidence from passive funds in the military sector [3][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Military Index increased by 2.57% during the week of March 10-14, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.98 percentage points [10][17]. - Since May 2024, the Shenwan Military Index has risen by 22.96%, while the CSI 300 Index has increased by 11.16%, resulting in an excess return of 11.8 percentage points [19][10]. - The engine sector performed the best this week, with significant gains from stocks like Baotai Co., which rose by 21.07% due to the "deep-sea technology" theme [24][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on traditional main battle equipment and high-elasticity sectors that will cross the "15th Five-Year Plan" cycle [45][47]. - Key companies to watch include: - Traditional Equipment: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and others [47]. - High Elasticity Directions: Commercial engines, materials, information technology, low-cost drones, and controlled nuclear fusion [47]. Valuation and Funding - As of March 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Index is 63.72, with a percentile rank of 86.27%, indicating a high configuration value despite some valuation increases [4][45]. - The report notes that passive funds have shown a net inflow of 949 million yuan into military ETFs, reflecting strong confidence in the sector [30][44].

公 华福证券 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 平安银行（000001.SZ） 压力释放，靴子落地——2024 年报点评 投资要点： （一）2024Q4 业绩点评 Q4 单季，营收增速降幅相较 Q3 明显收窄，利润增速降幅扩大， 资产质量保持稳定。 营收端：2024Q4，营收增速为-5.3%，降幅较 Q3 收窄 6.5pct，主 要是由于 2024 年四季度利率快速下行，债券投资等其他非息收入同比 增长 123%。 点 评 利润端：2024Q4，归母净利润增速为-29.9%，降幅较 Q3 扩大 27.1pct，主要是由于 2024Q4 计提拨备约 174 亿元，同比 2023Q4 多计 提 16.6 亿元。但从 2024 年全年来看，拨备计提规模为 494 亿元，同比 2023 年全年少计提约 97.4 亿元。我们认为，前三季度为了维持利润正 增长而减少了拨备计提，四季度则加大对不良的认定、拨备的补充计 提以及核销。 资产质量：截至 2024 年末，不良率为 1.06%，持平于 Q3。关注 率为 1.93%，较 Q3 末下降 4bp。具体来看： 零售贷款不良率为 1.39%，较 Q3 下降 4bp。分产品看，按揭贷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [12][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pressure on asset quality and provisioning has been released in Q4 2024, suggesting that market concerns regarding the bank's annual performance and dividends have been alleviated [12]. - It is anticipated that the bank's performance will marginally recover in 2025, with loan growth expected to return to normal levels due to the recovery of consumer demand and the increase in mid-risk product offerings [6][11]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance Review - In Q4 2024, revenue growth rate was -5.3%, a narrowing decline compared to Q3, primarily due to a rapid decline in interest rates and a 123% year-on-year increase in non-interest income from bond investments [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.9% in Q4 2024, with a significant increase in provisioning of approximately 17.4 billion yuan compared to Q4 2023 [3][4]. - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.06% at the end of 2024, unchanged from Q3 [4]. Full Year 2024 Performance Review - Throughout 2024, Ping An Bank focused on optimizing its asset structure and reducing high-risk retail assets, leading to a contraction in loan scale and a significant decline in net interest margin [5][11]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was set at 27%, reflecting the bank's consideration of capital adequacy and reasonable dividend levels [5]. 2025 Operational Outlook - The bank's loan scale at the end of 2024 was 3,374.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4 billion yuan from the end of 2023, but a recovery in loan growth is expected in 2025 [6][11]. - The net interest margin decline is projected to narrow significantly, with the bank's credit cost improving by 29 basis points year-on-year to 1.56% in 2024 [11][12]. - Revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are forecasted at -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% [11][49].

行 华福证券 公用事业 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 公用事业 周报（3.10-3.14）：央企押宝新疆能源基地，绿 电交易首次跨越两网，CCER 目标 2030 国际接 轨 投资要点： 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 行情回顾：3 月 10 日-3 月 14 日，环保、燃气、水务和电力板块分别上涨 2.63%、2.22%、2.17%、1.80%，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%。 告 电力央企发力新疆，掀起千亿级建设高潮：3 月 12 日，新疆与 18 家中央 企业共同在北京举行产业兴疆重点项目 2025 年投资推进会。会议上，新疆分 别与华润集团、中核集团、华能集团、华电集团、国家电投集团、东方电气集 团、中国电建集团签署项目合作意向书，涉及项目 54 个，预计在疆完成产业 投资超 1300 亿元，涵盖能源、新型储能、智算中心、装备制造等领域。其中， 华润集团积极推进"疆电外送"第三通道天山北麓 6.1GW "沙戈荒"基地建 设；中核集团总签约项目 20 个，总投资 342.38 亿元；华能 ...

轻工制造 消费预期回暖，看好政策受益和高景气赛道 投资要点： 【周观点】持续提示家居 315 景气复苏，基本面有望迎来实质性拐点；持 续推荐产品升级、电商渠道高增的口腔护理龙头登康口腔，关注高景气拼 搭玩具龙头布鲁可。 【周研究】本周发布报告《镜片行业深度：功能智能风潮引领看见革命》。 在镜片行业高折化、功能化、智能化趋势下，我们看好行业加速向头部集 中的趋势，建议优选具备核心研发能力、产品矩阵多元、渠道优势领先、 聚焦自主品牌发展的龙头公司。建议关注：1）明月镜片、博士眼镜、英派 斯。 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 03 月 16 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 3/18 5/29 8/9 10/20 12/31 3/13 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师 ...

Group 1 - The core investment focus for convertible bonds in the second quarter is likely to remain on technology growth sectors, supported by a "slow recovery" trend in the economy. Specific sectors such as metals, chemicals, and consumer electronics may perform well due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and policy subsidies, but a full recovery in cyclical sectors may still depend on improved demand [2][10] - The valuation of convertible bonds may experience slight compression, but the decline in value is expected to be limited. The first quarter saw valuations rise to historical highs, and as the market approaches a period of intensive earnings disclosures, investor risk appetite may decrease, leading to increased market volatility [3][11] - The likelihood of credit risk spillover in the convertible bond market is expected to significantly decrease compared to the same period in 2024. As of March 14, 2025, the number of debt-type convertible bonds is only 92, accounting for 19% of the total market, compared to 189 and 35% in April 2024 [4][12] Group 2 - Recent stock market performance has been strong, attributed to factors such as relatively loose liquidity expectations, anticipated consumer support policies, and resilient inflows into the Hong Kong market, which provide emotional support for the A-share market. The recent rise in cyclical sectors may have absorbed some profits from technology growth sectors, maintaining market sentiment [5][19] - Despite a recent decline in convertible bond valuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, with strong allocation value. The decline is primarily due to short-term capital withdrawal driven by risk aversion ahead of earnings disclosures and concerns over potential credit risk spillover [5][20] - Specific investment opportunities include the consumer electronics sector benefiting from AI-driven demand, domestic large model upgrades driving cloud service demand, and the domestic intelligent driving industry expected to accelerate in 2025. Additionally, cyclical sectors may see performance recovery, and the renewable energy sector is also showing signs of improvement [5][20]

行 业 华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 03 月 15 日 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 今年前两个月铁路客流创历史新高 货物运输畅通有序 投资要点： 2025 年 1—2 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量创历史同期新高，货物运输 畅通有序 2025 年 1—2 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量创历史同期新高，货物运 输畅通有序，为经济平稳运行提供了有力支撑。 行 业 定 期 报 告 ——客运方面。春运期间，学生流、务工流、探亲流、旅游流叠 加交织，铁路客流保持高位。2 月，全国铁路发送旅客 3.69 亿人次。 今年前两个月，全国铁路发送旅客 7.38 亿人次，同比增长 6.4%，其中 动车组发送旅客 5.44 亿人次，占全国铁路旅客发送量的 73.8%，同比 增长 5.9%。全国铁路旅客周转量完成 2897.52 亿人公里，同比增长 2.9%，其中动车组旅客周转量 1923.47 亿人公里，同比增长 4.5%。 ——货运方面。2 月，全国铁路货运发送量 3.85 亿吨。前两个月， 全国铁路货运发送量 8.08 亿吨，同比增长 0.3%。从分品类运输情况看， 今年前两个月，集装箱、金属矿石、矿建材料分别发送 1.46 亿吨、0.9 ...

行 业 研 究 银行 2025 年 03 月 15 日 2 月社融同比多增，信贷投放动能边际走弱 投资要点： 财政发力支撑社融增速，信贷增量低于预期 2 月社融继续同比多增，但信贷增量低于市场预期。当月新增社融 2.2 万亿元，同比多增 7416 亿元。2 月末存量社融同比增长 8.2%，同比增 速较上月提升 0.2pct。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 从社融增量结构来看，社融同比多增主要来自直接融资的贡献，信贷 对社融增量的贡献减弱。2 月社融口径人民币贷款新增 6528 亿元，同 比少增 3245 亿元。剔除春节错位因素，1-2 月合计新增社融口径人民 币贷款 6.14 万亿元，和上年同期基本持平。2 月直接融资新增 1.87 万 亿元，其中政府债仍然保持较快发行节奏，新增 1.69 万亿元，同比多 增 1.1 万亿元。 化债置换和靠前投放影响下，信贷增长动能边际走弱 2 月企业端信贷增量回落，企业贷款新增 1.04 万亿元，同比少增 5300 亿元。其中，票据融资新增 1693 亿元，同比多增 4460 亿元，票据冲 量对当月信贷形成一定支撑。 对公一般贷款需求下滑。2 月企业中长期贷款新增 5400 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, due to inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions [12][11][1] Core Views - Precious Metals: The report highlights that U.S. inflation has cooled more than expected, leading to a rise in gold prices. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports precious metal prices in the short term. In the medium to long term, the report emphasizes the continued investment value of precious metals due to geopolitical conflicts and central bank policies [12][11][1] - Industrial Metals: The report notes that copper prices have begun to stabilize as the U.S. CPI for February was lower than expected. The supply-demand balance for copper remains tight, providing strong support for prices. The report is optimistic about copper prices in the medium to long term, driven by strong demand from the renewable energy sector and potential monetary easing [14][13][1] - New Energy Metals: The report indicates that lithium carbonate production growth is slowing, but demand remains strong. The report suggests that lithium remains a key investment opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain [18][19][1] - Other Minor Metals: The report mentions that rare earth prices are expected to remain stable and potentially increase due to tightening supply and growing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [20][21][1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. inflation has decreased, positively impacting gold prices. The market is reacting to potential interest rate cuts, which could lead to price fluctuations in the short term. However, the long-term outlook remains strong due to geopolitical tensions and central bank policies [12][11][1] - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12][11][1] Industrial Metals - The report notes a decrease in copper TC prices and an increase in copper demand, although purchasing remains cautious. Global copper inventory stands at 808,100 tons, with a slight decrease from the previous period [14][13][1] - The report is optimistic about copper prices due to a tight supply-demand balance and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [14][13][1] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [14][13][1] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production growth is slowing, but demand remains robust. The report suggests that lithium is a strategic investment opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain [18][19][1] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Potash and Tianqi Lithium [19][18][1] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to remain stable, with supply tightening and demand increasing from various sectors [20][21][1] - Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth and Hunan Gold [23][20][1]