证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 固态电池与氢燃料电池降本趋势持续，关注北交所固态电池&氢能产业企业 ——北交所科技成长产业跟踪第二十七期（20250525） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 液态锂电池仍有能量密度存在上限等不足，固态电池与氢燃料电池降本趋势持续。液态锂电池仍有能量密度存在 上限、锂枝晶引起的安全风险、SEI 膜增厚影响循环寿命、低温性能不足限制场景应用等不足。因此，发展固态 电池和氢燃料电池不仅是解决现有技术瓶颈的关键路径，也是满足未来多样化应用需求的重要方向。（1）固态 电池：固态电池产业化建设已取得实质进展，多家固态电池企业宣布了其量产计划，例如，中创新航全固态电池 技术能量密度达 430wh/kg，预计 2028 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 26 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 生猪价格持续走弱，建议关注低成本 高成长龙头 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250519-20250523） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价持续走弱，4 月行业中大猪存栏环比微增。 联系人 本周涌益数据最新猪价降至 14.31 元/kg，出栏均重略降至 129.38kg，15Kg 仔猪报 价维持 627 元/头左右。近期二育栏舍利用率下行、积极性下降，短期猪价走势或震 荡偏弱，4 月农业部数据中大猪存栏同比+6.5%、环比+0.6%，后续供应压力或持续。 中长期看全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，4 月官方全国能繁母猪 存栏量 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that tungsten prices have reached historical highs while antimony prices are adjusting, with materials expected to benefit from the acceleration of commercial nuclear fusion [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring overseas rare earth prices in June, with expectations of a general price increase but limited growth compared to May [6] - The report suggests that the recent easing of tariffs between China and the US may create opportunities for new materials exports, particularly for companies with high export exposure [10][11] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 1.42% increase in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 429,000 CNY/ton, a 1.22% decrease in dysprosium oxide to 1,625,000 CNY/ton, and a 0.07% increase in terbium oxide to 7,080,000 CNY/ton [6][13] - Key factors to watch include the implementation timeline of the total rare earth control draft, export quotas, and imports from Myanmar [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 4.30% to 3,635 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices rose by 4.87% to 237,000 CNY/ton [21] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 7.89% to 164,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 8.74% to 242,500 CNY/ton [24] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 1.95% to 264,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 2.99% to 3.27 USD/ton [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 5.32% to 222,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 3.70% to 195,000 CNY/ton [48] New Materials - The report notes a window of opportunity for new materials exports due to the recent tariff adjustments, suggesting a potential recovery for companies like BQ New Materials and others [10][11] - The commercial acceleration of controlled nuclear fusion is expected to benefit upstream materials, with significant developments reported in both domestic and international projects [11]

Industry Overview - The global seed industry has a high concentration, with a CR5 of 52% in 2021, while China's seed industry CR5 is only 17%, indicating significant room for improvement[4] - Major grain prices in China have shown a slight increase, with corn prices up by 11.9%, while soybean prices decreased by 0.7%, and wheat prices increased by 2.9% as of May 23, 2025[4] Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) - Three batches of genetically modified corn varieties have been approved for commercialization, totaling 161 varieties, with significant advantages for leading companies[4][16] - The domestic market for genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with companies like Kangnong Seed focusing on high-yield and resilient hybrid corn varieties[19] Company Performance - Kangnong Seed's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 337 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.80%, with a net profit of approximately 82.60 million yuan and gross/net profit margins of 35.79% and 24.72%, respectively[30] - The company's three-year CAGR for revenue and net profit from 2021 to 2024 is 33.45% and 24.53%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential[30] Market Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange consumer service sector decreased from 57.9X to 53.2X, reflecting a broader market trend[34] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector fell from 119.36 billion yuan to 116.79 billion yuan during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition, and statistical data inaccuracies, which could impact the overall market performance[52]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the U.S. nuclear energy sector, driven by three key executive orders signed by President Trump, which aim to revamp the nuclear energy supply chain, enhance reactor testing mechanisms, and optimize regulatory approval processes. This comprehensive approach is expected to shorten the construction cycle for nuclear power plants and clarify the commercialization path for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and fourth-generation reactors [5][17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The report notes a market pullback in Hong Kong and U.S. tech stocks during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025, with the Hang Seng Tech Index closing at 5246.9, down 0.7%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 4702.4, down 4.5%, lagging behind the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [8][10]. 2. Key Events in Nuclear Energy - The executive orders focus on three main areas: 1. "Revitalizing the Nuclear Industry Foundation" aims to establish a strategic direction for the production and procurement of HALEU/LEU/HEU, facilitating a complete supply chain from fuel supply to power plant construction [17]. 2. "Reforming the Department of Energy's Reactor Testing" seeks to streamline the approval process for advanced reactors, reducing the time from technology validation to commercial deployment [18]. 3. "Reforming the Nuclear Regulatory Commission" aims to shorten approval timelines to 18 months and set a target to increase nuclear capacity from approximately 100 GW in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050 [18]. 3. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to $3.46 trillion as of May 23, 2025, up from $3.32 trillion the previous week. The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies reached $170.07 billion, accounting for 4.92% of the total market capitalization [20][24]. - The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently in the "greed" zone, with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 76 [24]. 4. Notable Stock Movements - The report lists the top five gainers in the nuclear energy sector for the week, including NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY (+32%), OKLO (+30%), and NUSCALE POWER (+25%). Conversely, the top five losers included WOLFSPEED (-63%) and AMD (-5.9%) [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the near future [2][5]. Core Insights - The company, Jiao Da Tie Fa, is recognized as a national-level "Little Giant" in the field of rail transit infrastructure safety and intelligent products, with a focus on technological innovation and industry upgrades supported by the National Railway Group [2][11]. - The company plans to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO) to invest in new production projects, a research center, and marketing networks, which are expected to significantly increase revenue and profit [8][9]. - The rail transit infrastructure market is experiencing substantial growth, with national fixed asset investment in railways reaching 850.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [33][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Initial Issuance - The company is issuing 19.09 million shares at a price of 8.81 yuan per share, with an initial price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.6X [2][5]. - The total number of shares after issuance will be 76.34 million, with the issuance accounting for 25.01% of the total shares before any over-allotment [5][6]. 2. Fundraising and Investment Projects - The funds raised will be allocated to projects including the construction of a new production facility for rail transit intelligent products, a research center, and a marketing and after-sales service network [8][9]. - The new production project is expected to generate an additional annual revenue of approximately 247.15 million yuan and a net profit of about 30.10 million yuan upon reaching full capacity [9][10]. 3. Company Overview - Founded in 2005, the company specializes in rail transit safety products and has established partnerships with several universities and research institutions [11]. - The company has participated in significant national railway projects, including the Beijing-Zhangjiakou High-Speed Railway and the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway [11]. 4. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue is projected to grow from 154 million yuan to 335 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [27]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 19.85 million yuan to 53.39 million yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 28% [27][32]. 5. Market Potential - The report highlights the strategic importance of railway construction and information technology in promoting economic development, with significant investments planned for the coming years [33][34]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for rail transit infrastructure, supported by government policies and increasing urbanization [33][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery demand remains high, with significant growth in logistics performance. In April 2025, major express companies reported substantial business volume increases, with SF Express achieving a growth rate of 30.0% [4][29] - The logistics market is experiencing a shift towards consolidation, with leading companies like SF Express and JD Logistics benefiting from macroeconomic recovery and cost control measures [12] - The shipping sector is expected to see continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and limited new oil tanker orders, which will tighten supply [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In April 2025, the total business volume for express services reached 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with total revenue of 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [23] - SF Express led the growth with a business volume of 1.335 billion pieces, up 29.99%, while YTO Express and Yunda Express also showed strong performance [4][29] Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 7.2% to 1586 points, indicating an increase in shipping rates [9] - The oil tanker market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, while the dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover due to supply constraints and regulatory pressures [12] Aviation - In April 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 60.93 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with cargo volume rising by 16.8% [51] - The industry is expected to benefit from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, with potential for significant growth as macroeconomic conditions improve [12] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International are expected to see performance improvements due to the transformation of logistics parks and high dividend yields [12] - The competitive landscape in the express delivery sector is stabilizing, providing opportunities for companies like Deppon Logistics and Aneng Logistics to enhance profitability [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [3] Core Views - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.78% from May 19 to May 23, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96% [4] - Innovative drug companies are highlighted as a key trend, with recommendations for specific stocks such as Huana Pharmaceutical, Xinlitai, and others [4] - The report emphasizes the successful IPO of Hengrui Medicine on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 99 billion HKD (13 billion USD) [7] - Hengrui's revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to reach 27.985 billion CNY and 6.337 billion CNY, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 22.63% and 47.28% [12] - The report identifies a shift from generic drugs to innovative drugs, with Hengrui's innovative drug revenue expected to contribute significantly to its overall sales [19] Summary by Sections Hengrui Medicine's IPO and Transformation - Hengrui Medicine officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 23, 2025, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy [7] - The company has transitioned from raw materials to generics and now to innovative drugs over its 50-year history [8] - Hengrui's innovative drug revenue reached 13.892 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 52% of total sales [19] Industry Perspective - The report suggests a focus on innovation, international expansion, and the aging population as key themes for the pharmaceutical industry [30] - The pharmaceutical index has shown positive performance, with a year-to-date increase of 4.30% [30] - The report highlights the importance of domestic policy adjustments and the potential for recovery in the pharmaceutical sector [47] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, particularly those with strong performance and low valuations [47] - Specific stocks to watch include Hengrui Medicine, Xinlitai, and others in the innovative drug space [50] - The report also suggests monitoring companies involved in international expansion and those addressing the needs of an aging population [48]

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 25 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 关税威胁再起，美铜大涨 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/19-2025/5/23） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页 / 共 16页 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜 ： 关 税 威 胁 再 起 ， 美 铜 大 涨 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +0.55%/-0.45 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 25 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 4 月电力数据跟踪 看好聚变装备前景 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 21 周周报（20250525） 投资要点： 证券分析师 电力：4 月光伏新增装机环比翻倍 单月用电增速稳健 装机：4 月光伏新增装机环比翻倍，入市影响仍在延续。国家能源局于 2025 年 5 月 22 日发 布 1-4 月全国电力工业统计数据：截至 4 月底，全国累计发电装机容量 34.9 亿千瓦，同比增 长 15.9%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量 9.9 亿千瓦，同比增长 47.7%；风电装机容量 5.4 亿千 瓦，同比增长 18.2%；单 4 月新增光伏 4 ...