Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in sports resources, deepening brand professionalism [5] - The company has shown stable performance despite external environmental disturbances, with a revenue of 28.676 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [7] - The e-commerce channel's revenue contribution is increasing, accounting for 31% of total revenue in 2024, up 2 percentage points from 2023 [7] - The running product category has seen rapid growth, with retail sales increasing by 25% in 2024 [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.656 billion RMB, 2.960 billion RMB, and 3.264 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [7] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is 29.164 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 1.7% [8] - The gross profit for 2025 is projected to be 13.795 billion RMB, representing 47.3% of sales revenue [8] - The net profit margin is expected to be 9.1% in 2025, with a net profit of 2.656 billion RMB [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 38.366 billion RMB by 2025, with a debt ratio of 25.04% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to impairment losses from the "large for small" replacement strategy, while efficiency improvements in power generation are expected to contribute to long-term performance [7] - The company reported a revenue of 1.266 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 3.32% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87 million yuan, down 45.82% year-on-year [7] - The company has a total installed capacity of 1.9168 million kilowatts in renewable energy, with wind power accounting for 1.6068 million kilowatts and solar power for 310,000 kilowatts [7] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is expected to be 0.4934 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 0.021 yuan per kilowatt-hour compared to the previous year [7] - The company is developing distributed photovoltaic projects backed by its parent company, China Aluminum Corporation, and has secured 18 projects totaling 210,700 kilowatts for 2024 [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.454 billion yuan, 1.588 billion yuan, and 1.722 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.90%, 9.21%, and 8.44% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 153 million yuan, 171 million yuan, and 189 million yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 76.07%, 11.77%, and 10.75% respectively [6][8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 2.05% in 2024 to 3.98% in 2027 [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 51.44 in 2024 to 23.60 in 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a warm winter and impacts from the real estate sector, but the dividend logic is gradually being realized [5] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of HKD 4.09 billion, a decrease of 21.7% compared to the previous year, which was below market expectations [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of HKD 0.95 per share for 2024, with the cash dividend amounting to 52.71% of the net profit [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: HKD 101.27 billion - 2024: HKD 102.68 billion - 2025E: HKD 105.54 billion - 2026E: HKD 108.01 billion - 2027E: HKD 110.57 billion - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: HKD 5.22 billion - 2024: HKD 4.09 billion - 2025E: HKD 4.72 billion - 2026E: HKD 5.51 billion - 2027E: HKD 6.19 billion - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be HKD 2.04, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 [6][8] Operational Insights - Retail gas sales volume for 2024 is expected to reach 39.91 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with residential, industrial, and commercial sales volumes growing by 6.3%, 1.5%, and 3.8% respectively [7] - The company’s connection profit continues to shrink, with a reduction in new residential connections by 620,000 to 2.693 million, leading to a decline in connection business profits [7] - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at HKD 4.42 billion, a decrease of HKD 3.47 billion year-on-year, contributing to an improvement in free cash flow [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a rebound in performance as the real estate market stabilizes, with a focus on optimizing its gas sales business and improving profitability [7] - The long-term downward trend in gas prices is anticipated to enhance cost efficiency, with the company signing a 15-year LNG supply agreement starting in 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a strong growth trajectory in revenue and net profit, with significant year-on-year increases projected for the coming years [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 25,911 million RMB in 2025, reflecting an 11.48% growth compared to 2024 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 5,035 million RMB in 2025, representing a 24.73% increase from the previous year [5] Financial Summary - The closing price of the company's stock is 11.27 RMB, with a market capitalization of 53,766.65 million RMB [3] - The company has a total share capital of 4,770.78 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 51.90% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.06 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.68 [5][7] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.95% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [5][7] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 30.65% by 2025, with a net profit margin of 21.11% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the water utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - Continuous water price adjustments are expected to improve corporate profitability, with Shenzhen's proposed water price increase of 13.05% from 3.449 CNY/m³ to 3.8991 CNY/m³ [4][10][14] - The adjustment is part of a broader trend since 2021, where various cities have initiated price hearings to reflect increased investment costs [6][14] - The water pricing mechanism is based on "permitted costs + reasonable returns," with adjustments occurring every three years [5][11] Summary by Sections Water Price Adjustment - Shenzhen's water price adjustment hearing is scheduled for April 11, 2025, marking the first adjustment in eight years [4][10] - The proposed price increase includes a smaller rise for residential users and a more significant increase for non-residential users [6][14] Policy and Regulatory Framework - The pricing framework established in 1998 mandates that urban water prices are determined by costs, taxes, and profits, with a reasonable profit margin of 8-10% on net assets [5][11] - The recent policy revisions emphasize the need for periodic adjustments to reflect actual costs and investments [11][12] Market Implications - The water price adjustments in Shenzhen may set a precedent for other cities in Guangdong province, which have not adjusted prices for several years [6][14] - Companies such as Huanlan Environment (Foshan), Zhongshan Public Utilities, and others are recommended for attention due to potential price adjustments [15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market remained generally loose this week. With a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan, credit bond yields declined overall, and spreads continued to narrow slightly. However, considering the potential fulfillment of the 2025 monetary policy easing expectations during the significant decline in bond yields from early December 2024 to early January 2025, along with factors such as the bond market adjustment in Q1 2025, the bond market in Q2 2025 may remain volatile, and the possibility of a significant further narrowing of credit spreads is relatively low [2][43]. - Except for a slight widening of the spreads of AAA - rated credit bonds in the leisure service industry, credit spreads of different ratings in other industries have compressed to varying degrees [3][25][44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview (March 24 - March 30) - **Primary Market**: The net financing of credit bonds increased, with an increase in total issuance and a decrease in total repayment. The issuance volume of each bond type decreased, and the issuance costs of different varieties showed mixed trends [5][8]. - **Secondary Market**: The trading volume of credit bonds decreased slightly, and the turnover rate fluctuated narrowly. Yields of credit bonds across all tenors and ratings declined to varying degrees. Credit spreads in most industries compressed, and the 3 - 5Y and 5 - 10Y urban investment bond credit spreads were at relatively high historical percentiles [5]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 144.1 billion yuan, an increase of 76.1 billion yuan from last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 13.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.2 billion yuan from last week. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds showed different trends [8]. - **Issuance Cost**: Except for an increase in the issuance cost of AA + - rated industrial bonds, the issuance rates of other bond types decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rates of asset - backed securities showed mixed trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15][16]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 4.2 billion yuan compared to last week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased, while that of industrial and financial bonds increased [17]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated narrowly. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds decreased, while that of industrial, financial, and asset - backed securities increased [18]. - **Yields**: Yields of credit bonds across all tenors and ratings declined to varying degrees. By variety, the yields of AA + - rated 5Y bonds in different sectors also decreased [20][22]. - **Credit Spreads** - Overall, except for a slight widening of the spreads of AAA - rated credit bonds in the leisure service industry, credit spreads in other industries compressed to varying degrees, with relatively large compressions in the electronics and automotive industries [25]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: Credit spreads of urban investment bonds across different tenors and regions decreased to varying degrees. The 3 - 5Y urban investment bond credit spreads were inverted compared to long - end spreads and were at a high historical percentile, with significant potential for further narrowing [30][31]. - **Industrial Bonds**: Except for a slight widening of the spreads of medium - to - high - rated 3Y industrial bonds, spreads of other tenors narrowed to varying degrees. After consecutive compressions, the capital gain space for high - rated (AAA and AAA -) industrial bonds using the duration strategy is relatively small, and institutions meeting the access criteria are advised to moderately lower their credit standards [35]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: Credit spreads of bank capital bonds showed mixed trends. Short - end spreads were inverted compared to medium - and long - end spreads, reducing the cost - effectiveness of long - duration allocation. A coupon strategy focusing on short - end allocation is recommended [39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - **Urban Investment Bonds**: Select high - quality urban investment entities in developed regions for moderate allocation, as the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond credit spreads are inverted compared to long - end spreads and are at a high historical percentile, with significant potential for narrowing [3][44]. - **Industrial Bonds**: Institutions meeting the access criteria are advised to moderately lower their credit standards to explore opportunities, as the capital gain space for high - rated (AAA and AAA -) industrial bonds using the duration strategy is relatively small [3][35][44]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: Adopt a coupon strategy and focus on short - end allocation, as short - end spreads are inverted compared to medium - and long - end spreads, reducing the cost - effectiveness of long - duration allocation [3][39][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [6] Core Views - The company is positioned to enter a significant growth phase in the civil explosives sector, driven by recent structural changes and acquisitions [7] - The Xinjiang region, where the company operates, is experiencing robust demand for civil explosives, with production value and industrial explosive output expected to grow significantly [8] - The company has a strong competitive advantage in the region, benefiting from favorable supply-demand dynamics and expected increases in explosive demand [8] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 9,645.23 million yuan, with a circulating market value of 8,766.68 million yuan [4] - The company’s total share capital is 1,071.69 million shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.57% and a net asset value per share of 4.52 yuan [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 6,255 million yuan, 6,694 million yuan, and 7,516 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 736 million yuan, 794 million yuan, and 936 million yuan [10][11] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.60% in production value by 2024, ranking first nationally in the civil explosives sector [8] Market Performance - The company has historically lagged in capacity expansion but is now poised for significant growth following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, which plans to inject all civil explosive assets into the company within five years [11] - The company’s chemical business, which includes the production of ammonium nitrate, is expected to support its explosive business and enhance profitability [11] - The projected price recovery in the chemical market could lead to substantial earnings potential for the company [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with insurance capital gaining a board seat, indicating recognition of the company's long-term value by state-owned insurance capital [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 12.576 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 1.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.378 billion RMB, down 13.63% year-on-year, aligning with previous expectations [7] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.09 RMB per share for 2024, which represents 52% of the total distributable profit [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 12,802 million RMB - 2024: 12,576 million RMB (down 1.8%) - 2025E: 14,304 million RMB (up 13.7%) - 2026E: 15,085 million RMB (up 5.5%) - 2027E: 15,793 million RMB (up 4.7%) [6][8] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023: 2,753 million RMB - 2024: 2,378 million RMB (down 13.6%) - 2025E: 3,006 million RMB (up 26.4%) - 2026E: 3,145 million RMB (up 4.6%) - 2027E: 3,209 million RMB (up 2.0%) [6][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 0.31 RMB - 2024: 0.26 RMB - 2025E: 0.35 RMB - 2026E: 0.37 RMB - 2027E: 0.38 RMB [6][8] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 8.59% - 2024: 7.16% - 2025E: 8.56% - 2026E: 8.47% - 2027E: 8.81% [6][8] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): - 2025E: 6.9 - 2026E: 6.6 - 2027E: 6.4 [6][8] Operational Highlights - The company experienced a decline in wind power generation due to weaker wind resources and market-driven electricity price reductions, with a reported wind power generation of 28.65 billion kWh in 2024, down 1.83% from 2023 [7] - The company added 3.43 GW of new capacity in 2024, a significant increase from 1.23 GW in 2023, with total installed capacity reaching 18.85 million kW [7] - The company has receivables exceeding 20 billion RMB, primarily from subsidies, which is approximately 1.4 times its current market value [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The 2024 Chinese consumer electronics market size increased from 1,658.7 billion CNY in 2018 to 1,977.2 billion CNY[11] - In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,878.95 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[12] - In January and February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 837.31 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%[15] Group 2: Industry Performance - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange's consumer service sector decreased from 42.1X to 41.8X[23] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange's consumer service sector rose from 85.801 billion CNY to 89.013 billion CNY, with the median market capitalization increasing from 1.794 billion CNY to 1.840 billion CNY[26] - The median P/E ratio for the food, beverage, and agriculture sector increased by 4.77% to 34.4X[32] Group 3: Notable Companies and Trends - The top five companies with the highest stock price increases included Yizhi Moyu (+18.46%), Dayu Biological (+14.69%), and Qudongli (+12.27%)[22] - The North Exchange includes 26 companies in the consumer electronics industry, covering various segments such as batteries, glass materials, and integrated circuits[19] - Taipeng Intelligent plans to invest an additional 150 million THB in its Thai subsidiary for land, equipment, and working capital needs[39]

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 30 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 生猪标肥价差继续收窄，关注美国农 业部种植面积报告 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250324-20250328） 投资要点： 生猪：标肥价差收窄，肥猪供应压力或显现。 联系人 标肥价差收窄，肥猪供应压力或显现。本周涌益数据最新猪价 14.59 元/kg，出栏均 重增至 128.64kg，15Kg 仔猪涨至 647 元/头，175kg 标肥价差为 0.5 元/kg。短期看， 市场对后市价格及肥标价差持续强势预期不足，加之饲料原料涨价拉升增重成本， 二育群体出栏意愿增强，延后的供应压力开始显现，猪价或有下行压力；中长期看 全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势 ...